The 2026 season is up and running and our Australian adventure continues! With the Down Under Classic already behind us, it's time for the 19th edition of the Tour Down Under. Six stages across Australia await our riders. 175 riders in total lining up in Adelaide.
We kick off with a short 89,5 km criterium style stage from Marion to Adelaide. Pancake flat, so the sprinters should get the first leader's jersey. Stage 2 from Wisleigh to Benambra (125,8 km) is a different story, rolling all day and climbing towards the end. The puncheurs who want the GC can't hide here. Stage 3 is the Tanunda circuit (146,9 km) with 5 short climbs, but with a flat run-in after the last one this could go either way. Stage 4 from Cootamundra to Cowra (121,9 km) should be a sprint again before we get to the queen stage, Brighton to the top of Willunga Hill (172,8 km). Expect the GC to be decided here! We finish with 136,1 km from Murray Bridge to Port Elliot where the sprinters get their final chance, and where every bonus second could matter for the GC.
Race History
This race has been with us since the very beginning in 2008 when Ivan Rovny took the first win, and it has given us winners of all kinds since then. Allan Davis, Cyril Gautier and Alex Dowsett. The man of the last few years is without a doubt Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni), who won in both 2023 and 2025, the latter with 2 stage wins and the points jersey on top. Demare is not here this year, so we are guaranteed a new winner! The only former winner on the startlist is 2022 champion Jay McCarthy, now riding for SEE Turtles. From last year's stage winners only Christopher Lagane is back, now not a pirate but in the colours of Bacharu Mamachari Faito!, together with last year's best young rider Matevz Govekar (Trans Looney Tunes).
Previous winners:
Spoiler
Year
Winner
2025
Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni)
2024
Kristian Haugaard Jensen (Genii Hyundai N Cycling)
2023
Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Gobyk)
2022
Jay McCarthy (Amaysim Cervelo)
2021
Simone Ponzi (Team UBS)
2020
Tosh Van der Sande (Farfetch Pro Cycling)
2019
Dan Holloway (McCormick Pro Cycling)
2018
Cyril Gautier (Valio - DeLaval)
2017
Maurice Schreurs (Orange Pro Cycling)
2016
Aleksandar Flügel (Wiesenhof - Andritz)
2015
Cesare Di Maggio (Team Vontobel)
2014
Michael Van Stayen (Venchi - Ferranti)
2013
Alex Dowsett (Jaguar - Eritel)
2012
Allan Davis (Hollister)
2011
Yukiya Arashiro (Red Bull)
2010
Wes Sulzberger (IrnBru - RBS)
2009
Mauro Facci (Warner Brothers)
2008
Ivan Rovny (Maxbo Bianchi)
2025 stage winners and jerseys:
Spoiler
S1: Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni) S2: Rok Korosec (Bianchi Enel) S3: Thomas Boudat (JEWA TIROL) S4: Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni) S5: Christopher Lagane (Podium Ambition) S6: Gerben Thijssen (Hunter Valley Cycling) Pts: Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni) Mtn: Kevin McCambridge (Glanbia) Yth: Matevz Govekar (Trans Looney Tunes)
Favourites
Benambra and Willunga Hill will be where the race is won, so we start with the puncheurs. On paper Eiking is the best of them with his 81 on hills, and he's got good energy stats to go with it. He'll be dangerous on both of the hilly finishes. Right behind him are Van Niekerk, Van Dijke, Moscon, Müller and the former champion McCarthy, all with 80 on hills. Van Dijke's 71 sprint could make him the best of them in a small group sprint and earn him some valuable bonus seconds.
My dark horse, if you can call him that, is Simmons. 79 on hills and 79 acc is a combo that should work very well on Willunga Hill together with his good mountain stat. Also keep an eye on Eriksson, newly trained Madouas, Tesfatsion and Govekar, the latter who won the youth jersey here last year.
And then we have the sprinting puncheurs. Lagane won stage 5 here last year, he's got a 76 sprint and he should be able to pick up bonus seconds on the flatter stages too. That makes him dagnerous. Oliveira and A. Paret-Peintre (yes, I'm biased) are others who can do a bit of everything.
Will be interesting to see how much the mountain stat will play in, that can help riders like Van Niekerk, Madouas, Simmons, Paret-Peintre and Tesfastion a lot.
Puncheurs (78+ hill + 2 others)
Rider
HI
AC
SP
ST
RS
RC
Eiking
81
76
68
78
74
71
Van Dijke
80
74
71
74
75
72
Van Niekerk
80
74
64
72
75
76
Müller
80
73
66
76
71
70
Moscon
80
73
60
76
77
75
McCarthy
80
71
63
77
72
65
Simmons
79
79
68
73
76
77
Eriksson
79
76
65
78
74
75
Kinoshita
79
71
64
74
71
67
Govekar
78
78
70
73
75
70
Tesfatsion
78
78
69
68
72
74
Lagane
78
77
76
70
71
71
Wandahl
78
75
67
76
76
70
Madouas
78
73
73
76
73
76
A. Paret-Peintre
77
74
72
73
75
73
Oliveira
76
78
75
77
72
72
Now to the sprinters. Three flat stages means there's plenty to fight for. Groenewegen is the man to beat with 81 sprint, 80 acceleration and a huge 84 recovery, that one will matter on the last stage. Coquard has the same sprint stat and will be the other big name, while Walls takes over as Tryg - Eni's man for the sprints with Demare gone.
Behind them it's a tight group with Hopkins, Willems, Kalaba, Kamberaj, Kulikovskiy and 2024 points winner El Sabbahi. I wouldn't count out Zhao either. Bacharu Mamachari Faito! have brought Hopkins, Zhao, Hofstetter and Lagane, so they will have the best train if they get a train
Sprinters (76+ sprint)
Rider
SP
AC
FL
ST
RS
RC
Groenewegen
81
80
72
73
70
84
Coquard
81
78
70
66
69
79
Walls
80
78
74
73
71
73
Kalaba
79
79
74
70
72
76
Hopkins
79
79
72
73
70
74
Willems
79
79
75
72
78
71
Kamberaj
79
78
75
73
73
78
Kulikovskiy
78
79
73
70
73
78
El Sabbahi
78
77
77
72
76
77
Final Thoughts
There are many riders who can do well here. This should be an interesting one with most of the top 10 from last year gone. If I would've to put my money on one rider I think I would've gone with Madouas. He got everything. I hope my guy can beat him here! Go APP!
Maybe not the ideal parcours and strong competition definitely tempering my expectations for Kinoshita, but with support from Smith and Ludvigsson I'm still hopeful a Top-10 is possible here. Same for him on a couple of the hilly stages, and maybe Hayakawa can sneak a point or two in one of the sprints.
Aiming for 50 points here, although could be a very tall order. McCarthy should receive strong backup from Nikiema - who may actually be a better option on stages 2/3. Would like to believe that we can find our way into the breakaway on other stages too although I fear we'll be out of contention there with the impact of McCarthy as a potential favorite.
While this really isn't a race fully suited for us, we had to give McCarthy a final chance on home roads and hope that he could regain that 2022 form.
Not sure Van Niekerk will win, but I think Minions is my favorite full lineup of the startlist.
Early season so relatively stacked squad, plus how can you not love the TDU?
Lagane - Eriksson duo... (there are only so many races without needing MM and/or STA). Could trip each other up yes, but Eriksson is in with a shout if he's picked to lead, and we know Lagane can handle if he does. If this works, good chances later in the year too, if this fails we could have a rough time more than once this season.
I though Hopkins might be Top5 here so yes stacked the leadout (because one thing have plenty of is leadout men). But looking at that list he might still be 6-8 and then we could have a few surfers.
It's race two so I can allow my hopes to be high and for excitement to flow! Then once it all crashes down around Stage 4 I can start to be realistically depressing.
[C1] Tour Down Under 
