I wanted to try my luck with an in-depth prediction of PCT. But just ranking teams while looking at rosters as a whole turned out to be quite difficult for me, so I went with a predictive approach going by expected points per rider, similar to what for example Fabianski did for their own team in the HQ.
I didn't go through every rider in the division though. Too much work, and also I didn't feel confident enough in projecting the weaker riders. Instead, I focused on each team's stronger riders, with some added rough predictions for depth scoring. Here's the methodology:
First, I created six main tiers into which I wanted to sort the top riders:
Likely Top 20 Finisher: Riders who I expect with some degree of certainty to finish in the Top 20, and anything outside of the Top ~30 would be a big disappointment.
Potential Top 20: Little chance to break into the Top 10, but could finish in the Top 20 on a good run. Top 30 to Top 40 is also within the reasonable range of outcomes.
Likely Top 40: See above, just one tier lower Potential Top 40: See above, just one tier lower
Likely Top 60: See above, just another tier lower Potential Top 60: See above, just another tier lower
There is one more tier: the Elite. These are riders who I would expect to end up in the Top 5 with some degree of certainty, because they've done it before or because they are a cut above the rest in their respective field (or both). Ultimately, I only fit two riders into that category, though: Matteo Jorgenson, who already finished with 1000+ points last year and got some training, and Caleb Ewan as far and away the best sprinter, who also already scored roughly 1000 points in PCT in both previous years. For all other terrains, I found the contenders too evenly matched for any one rider to stand above the rest.
To make point projections based on these tiers, I analyzed the individual PCT rankings of the last three years. The elite tier was estimated based on the approximate average of the Top 5 finishers of those three years. "Likely Top 20" is roughly the average of places 6 to 20, "Potential Top 20" of places 11 to 31, "Likely Top 40" of 21 to 40 and so on. This gives us the following estimated points per tier:
Elite
1.000
Likely Top 20
750
Potential Top 20
625
Likely Top 40
500
Potential Top 40
400
Likely Top 60
350
Potential Top 60
250
As an orientation for myself, I sorted the Top 60 of each of the previous years into six rider types and then looked at how many of each rider type are in the Top 20, Top 40 and Top 60:
Stage Racer
Climber
Puncheur
Time Trialist
Cobbles
Sprinter
1-20
5
3
4
1
2
5
21-40
4
3
4
1
2
6
41-60
4
3
5
1
3
4
I didn't match these numbers exactly, as each year was and will be different, but it served as an orientation regarding how many points are available to how many riders per type.
It is important to note that especially towards the bottom of the Top 60, I tended to estimate riders with their best case scenario in mind. I ultimately ended up with the following distribution:
2 Elite
13 Likely Top 20
13 Potential Top 20
13 Likely Top 40
19 Potential Top 40
13 Likely Top 60
41 Potential Top 60
You will note that there are 41 riders in the "Likely Top 40" and above categories, which fits quite nicely. However, there are then 32 riders in "Potential Top 40" and "Likely Top 60", which is already way too many to fit the category names, and then I also gave all 41 "Potential Top 60" grades, where all riders get the points estimate of the average of places 50-60.
While I did tried to account for that in my depth points prediction, i.e. if there are multiple riders as "Likely or Potential Top 60", I lowered that estimate a bit, this will ultimately lead to an overestimation of total points across the board. That also checks out when comparing the estimated points to for example Ulrich's points projections. I hope that those overestimations are somewhat comparable for each team though, so that the ultimate ranking still makes sense.
Finally, as mentioned above, I tried my best to make a points estimate for all remaining riders of each team that were below the category of Potential Top 60 rider. This was the part I struggled with most, as mentioned earlier, and where big differences might be the most likely (though there will certainly be big differences with the stronger riders, too).
With all of that out of the way, here's my team-by-team prediction, with the full ranking prediction at the bottom.
Bacharu Mamachari Faito!
2.725
Potential Top 20
Spengler
625
Likely Top 60
Eriksson, Reis
700
Potential Top 60
Lagane, Leemreize, Hopkins
750
Depth
650
Spengler was among the most difficult riders to predict. He has the highest cobbles stat of the division, but everything else is lacking and last year's PT campaign didn't indicate that he's at the highest level. I think his range is quite large and he could be a bit worse than that points estimate. I don't see another rider from this team in the Top 40. Eriksson might be the most likely, but the hills competition is tough and there might be scheduling issues with Lagane.
I rate the rest of the team quite highly with the likes of Hofstetter, Kuroeda, Quinn, Abdurrahman and more all potentially significant contributors. Hopkins has a ton of support for sprints as well.
Bianchi Enel
2.725
Potential Top 20
Van der Poel
625
Potential Top 40
Moscon, Lapeira
800
Likely Top 60
Van Poppel
350
Potential Top 60
Stavrakakis, Cataford
500
Depth
450
Despite the tough hills competition mentioned above, I think MVDP has a chance to really shine this year. Moscon and Lapeira are rated quite highly by some, less so by others, we'll see how it goes. Van Poppel might be a bit underrated, Stavrakakis perhaps as well, but both compete in crowded fields.
Beyond the riders mentioned here, I don't see a ton of depth scoring (even if I trust the manager to find edges I might not see). Gabburo could find some nice scoring opportunities, Noppe is a decent C2 rider, although that is also a much tougher competition this year.
Bralirwa - Cegeka
3.675
Likely Top 20
Girmay, Amezawa
1.500
Potential Top 20
Madouas
625
Potential Top 40
Willems
400
Likely Top 60
Van Eetvelt
350
Depth
800
Girmay and Amezawa already combined for 1460 points last year, so I'm hoping Bini's training will increase that number. Madouas could on paper be even stronger than APP last year, but there's quite some variance there. I would expect Willems to score fewer points than that, but considering where he ranks among sprinters in the division, it's not impossible.
LVE on his own might be higher, but he doesn't have too many opportunities as a leader. I rate my depth quite highly, Mansouri and Habimana were almost in the "Potential Top 60" category but I ultimately decided against it. Still, with those two, Perera as a secondary and C2 sprinter, Wellens and more depth behind them, I'm hoping for a decent chunk of points.
Duvel - Tsingtao
2.550
Likely Top 20
Benoot
750
Likely Top 40
Faglum Karlsson
500
Potential Top 60
Lyu, Hesters, Thomas
750
Depth
550
Benoot finished 9th and 24th the previous two times he rode in PCT, he should be up there again. Faglum Karlsson was 24th last year, but also finished 50th three years ago and the stage racing competition is tough.
Decent depth behind those two, with the three riders listed as potential Top 60 finishers, although combining for 750 points between them might be a challenge. But with the likes of Van Wilder, Chen, Barbier, Niu and more, there should be solid additional scoring there.
Ethiopian Airlines
2.100
Elite
Ewan
1.000
Likely Top 60
Formolo
350
Potential Top 60
Gladysh
250
Depth
500
Ewan is the first Elite tier rider and he could well score a bit above 1000. He had 1162 points two years ago, and Coquard did 1113 from a similar position last year. Anything above 1k is probably desperately needed, as there are very few other standouts on the roster. Formolo should find his points, Gladysh is a bit more volatile in my opinion.
Of the depth riders, Gebrezgabihier is the main one on paper, but it's questionable how he matches with the two puncheurs mentioned above. Nothing on cobbles, no solid second sprinter and no main climber or stage racer leaves a lot of hope on outlier results from breakaways by someone like Battistella or Schönberger, a good season from Grosser, or maybe some depth in stage races by Stork.
Everesting
2.075
Potential Top 20
Latour
625
Potential Top 40
Errazkin
400
Potential Top 60
Adomaitis, Fung
500
Depth
550
Another team with few top riders. Latour could have a strong season, but there are many similarly-built riders in the division and if things don't break right for him, he could score worse than this. Errazkin finished on 300 points last season, he will hope to improve on that after his round of training. Adomaitis was close to 300 points as well, so he could beat his estimate here, but there's always some volatility in sprints, of course.
Fung is a solid third-tier stage racer for the TT-heavy races where Latour won't shine as much. There's solid depth in Willwohl as a secondary sprinter, Schreurs on cobbles, Uwizeyimana as another lower-tier stage racer and a bunch of riders who could do well from breakaways, but all of that comes with very little guaranteed scoring potential.
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
2.450
Likely Top 40
Eiking, Bjerg
1.000
Potential Top 60
Wandahl, Vingegaard, Knotten
750
Depth
700
No big star for Gjensidige, but Bjerg has a real shot at being the best time trialist in the division, which could see him score more than his projected points here. Same for Eiking to be honest, especially if he finds a schedule that suits him well, but both also have some room to underperform in my opinion. Vingegaard could do very well or be left behind a bunch of stronger stage racers, Wandahl might be great as a secondary leader to Eiking or not ... Quite some uncertainty here, although Kotten should do fairly well in an overall not terribly strong TT field.
I give a pretty high estimate for their depth scoring, in part to account for the possibility of higher scoring from the leaders, but also for guys like Waersted, Hvideberg or Lunke, who could all do pretty well.
Grieg-Maersk
2.775
Likely Top 20
Per
750
Potential Top 20
Foss
625
Potential Top 40
Pithie
400
Potential Top 60
Abrahamsen
250
Depth
750
Per has a real shot at being the strongest cobbles rider in the division. Foss has a very high ceiling, especially if he has a fitting TT-heavy schedule, though this might not be the ideal season for that. Pithie could potentially be a bit overrated, but I like his profile a lot, same for Abrahamsen.
There's strong depth here, too, especially on cobbles with Bohli, Jansen and Van Gestel, who could all score very decently in Per's slipstream. Hindley and Ssabagwanya round out the team's hills leadership trio with Abrahamsen - could go quite well, but there's not guarantees here. But with the amount of high stamina riders on this team, you would have to imagine a consistent stream of solid results throughout the season.
Jura GIANTS
3.550
Likely Top 20
Schmid, Godoy
1.500
Likely Top 40
Bissegger
500
Likely Top 60
Darbellay
350
Potential Top 60
Paez, Szarka, Stewart
750
Depth
450
Here we have the fun situation that I can compare my estimates directly against Fabianski's own. I'm significantly higher on both Godoy and Darbellay, although I may well overestimate them given Fab's remarks on their unfavorable schedules. I'm also a good bit higher on Bissegger, Paez, Szarka and Stewart, and I reckon they will likely not combine for as many points as they're projected to here. But again, this is often a best-case projection.
That said, I reduced their depth projection a bit as a result, but also there really aren't that many reliable scoring pieces outside of Larsen and to some extent Sommer and Delco. if their leaders deliver, though, that might ultimately not matter as much.
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
2.725
Likely Top 20
Oomen
750
Potential Top 20
Gamper
625
Potential Top 40
Van Gils
400
Potential Top 60
Van Poucke, Potocki
500
Depth
450
Oomen is a terrific stage racer, he finished 3rd two years ago and could outscore those points by quite a bit. Gamper should be expected to perform very well even in a crowded cobbles field. Beyond that, it gets a bit murky. Van Gils should do quite well, but both him and Van Poucke have a stamina deficit compared to many of their competitors. Potocki needs a good schedule but could do very well with one.
I don't see a ton of scoring potential beyond those, although there's a decent TTT unit here. Calzoni and Covi could do well with a few lucky breaks, and Mareczko is a solid secondary sprinter, but that's it.
Lotto-Caloi
2.350
Likely Top 40
Min
500
Likely Top 60
Buitrago
350
Potential Top 60
Zingle, Girdlestone, Currie
750
Depth
750
Min finished 25th last year, but I'm dubious if he can repeat that. Buitrago and Girdlestone are potentially quite exciting riders, Zingle could be among the better second-to-third-tier sprinters (although he could also fall quite flat), and Currie is among the strongest time trialists. But few safe bets here.
I arte the depth behind them, though. Vakoc and Finkler are an interesting duo for the hills, Cherkasov and Veyhe as flat beasts fill the void beyond Zingle, Vasyliv has declined but isn't too far off from the rider who finished 33rd in the individual rankings last year, and I could go on. But a lot will be asked from these guys to guide the team to safety.
McCormick Pro Cycling
3.425
Potential Top 20
Simmons, Aular, Sosa
1.875
Potential Top 40
Riabushenko
400
Potential Top 60
Yates, Konyshev
500
Depth
650
One of the stronger leadership trios of the division. However, with a similar trio myself, I know that finding a fitting schedule to maximize all three of them might be tricky. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if they combine for those points quite easily. Riabushenko, Yates and Konychev could all be a bit worse than projected here, but I see the potential.
There's still a small penalty on the depth projection, which otherwise might've been higher with the likes of Gall and Kuss as pure climbers, Cabrera for depth in TT stage races, Barthe Peters and Godon for hills and more.
Minions
3.100
Likely Top 20
Rodrigues, Jakobsen
1.500
Potential Top 40
Van Niekerk, Kalaba
800
Potential Top 60
Borisaljevic
250
Depth
550
Rodrigues has back-to-back Top 20 finishes to his name and I expect Jakobsen to impove on last year's 37th place. On the other hand, I'm sceptical if Van Niekerk can repeat his 31st place, but it's possible. Kalaba finished 49th two years ago, he could do well again, and Borisaljevic is a solid second stage racing option.
There is okay-ish depth behind these guys, in particular on uphill roads with Cepeda Hernandez, Morales Ortega and Rubio. Four additional riders are within 75 and 77 sprint (the latter, Jay Major, being the most intriguing one), which could result in a decent chunk of points, or hardly any points at all.
Peugeot
2.700
Likely Top 40
Ranaweera, Paret-Peintre, Rutsch, Coquard
2.000
Likely Top 60
Zabel
350
Depth
350
Peugeot have every terrain (outside of pure TT) covered at a high level. Ranaweera and Paret-Peintre both finished in the Top 20 last year, so it might be harsh to not even have them as "Potential Top 20" here, but I think the competition got tougher for both. I wouldn't be shocked to see either outperform their projections, though. The two sprinters should combine for a strong total, Rutsch has variability both ways imo.
I didn't rate the depth scoring very highly, as I don't see much there. Trondsen and Welsford will serve mainly as leadouts, Venturini could be interesting but could also score hardly at all, wchich leaves Wirtgen, Donovan and Kirsch for the mountains.
Philips - Hero
2.975
Potential Top 20
Van Dijke
625
Likely Top 40
Zmorka
500
Potential Top 40
Hayter
400
Likely Top 60
Conci
350
Potential Top 60
Lampawog, Kulikovskiy
500
Depth
600
Trained Van Dijke could be a menace, but once again, the puncheur field is tough this year. Zmorka should still be a Top 3 time trialist in the division, Hayter could do really well especially with U25 points, but him and Conci have a very similar profile, so it's possible that they interfere with eachother's scoring. Lampawog and Kulikovsky are on the lower end of leaders in their areas, but could still do quite well.
There's a very good TTT unit here which should contribute nicely, and Uliysbayev could benefit a lot. Decent hills depth with Bouleau, McCormick and Hofstede, too.
Riders of Rohan
2.400
Potential Top 40
Bol
400
Likely Top 60
Eastman
350
Potential Top 60
Habtemichael, Vine, Narvaez, Erdenebat
1.000
Depth
650
Very little high-end scoring potential here, unless Eastman outperforms my expectations significantly. Habtemichael and Vine (perhaps a bit overrated here) form a good leadership group for the mountains, though, and Narvaez could be strong on hills. Bol ranks very highly among the sprinters in this prediction, which is a risky proposition but he has the potential imo. And Erdenebat has a chance to be a Top 5 time trialist.
Some very intriguing riders fill the roster, and the depth projection would be higher with more certainty among the top riders. Hamza and Demare as fast men, a strong TTT unit with Evans and Davies as further stage racing options to take advantage, Uhlig for cobbles, and a couple of decent breakaway options like Silva or Fedeli could be the basis for a much better season than projected here. But relying on that can be tricky.
Sauber Petronas Racing
3.350
Likely Top 20
Hirschi
750
Potential Top 40
Misbah
400
Likely Top 60
Scaroni, Kron, Eichhorn
1.050
Potential Top 60
Rossi
250
Depth
900
Hirschi scored 825 points last year and I can see him doing that again or even improving. Misbah finished with 430+ points in both previous years. Scaroni and Kron are tricky projections with Hirschi on the roster, but there are enough hilly races on the calendar for at least one of them to shine. Einhorn could do even better than this, and I wouldn't be shocked if Rossi does, too.
The depth projection accounts for that a bit, but there's also just a lot to like there. De Bie and Kanerva bolster the puncheur department even more, Tiberi should be a nice stage racing depth option, Nommela could be a decent secondary sprinter, Nerklishvili should do well ... I like this group quite a bit.
SparkNZ - Liquigas Pro Cycling
1.975
Potential Top 20
C. Rodriguez
625
Potential Top 40
Bonifazio
400
Potential Top 60
Prasad
250
Depth
700
Carlos Rodriguez could have a great season, especially with U25 points on top. Bonifazio and Prasad are a decent sprinter duo, though nothing spectacular. And then there's not a ton else.
Depth is a bit lackluster, I might already be a bit generous with my estimation. Martinez, Power and, to a lesser extent, Roson and Thompson, provide decent support and secondary scoring options in the mountains, but that's almost it. No dedicated puncheur, no decent cobbles rider ... this could be a long season for SparkNZ.
Trans Looney Tunes
3.000
Likely Top 20
Liu
750
Likely Top 40
Padun
500
Potential Top 40
Govekar, Mavrikakis
800
Potential Top 60
Tediashvili
250
Depth
650
Liu is a Top 5 sprinter on paper, which typically qualifies him for the Top 20. Having Padun, the rider with the second highest mountain stat in the division, not even as a potential Top 20 finisher might be harsh, but while he was close last year in 22nd, he hasn't gotten there in any of the previous three years and his average scoring is closer to 500 than to 625. Govekar and Mavrikakis cover hills and stage races reasonably well, but not at the highest level, same for Tediashvili on cobbles.
I like the team's depth with guys like Bettiol and Debesay for the hills, Moulingui, Kolev and Centrone as cobbles depth, and Knox and Rucigaj for stage races. Nothing spectacular, but I expect decent scoring throughout the season.
Tryg - Eni
2.375
Potential Top 20
Ovsyannikov
625
Likely Top 40
Walls, Johannessen
1000
Potential Top 60
Sheehan
250
Depth
450
Ovsyannikov could be a Top 3 cobbler this year following his training. Walls already finished 33rd last year. Johannessen has shown how strong he can be two years ago with a 23rd place, but plummeted to 49th last year. Still, this should be a solid leadership trio.
But I don't see a ton of potential behind them. Sheehan could score well, Adria is a fun rider for hills, but can he be a team leader there? There are some okay TT and stage racing depth options, but not at a level that would guarantee points, either.
UBS - EDP
3.600
Likely Top 20
Almeida, Groenewegen
1500
Likely Top 40
Jacobs
500
Potential Top 40
Arensman
400
Potential Top 60
Müller, Blum
500
Depth
700
Almeida is the best climber in the division, though his 15th place last year dampens expectations a little bit. Groenewegen should still be a Top 5 sprinter, while Jacobs suffers a bit from the strong division on cobbles. Arensman might be a bit optimistically projected here, and I'm not really sure what to do with Müller, but he should have the Top 60 in him even in this crowded puncheur field - perhaps more, too. Blum could be one of the best time trialists.
The depth here comes mostly from the climbing and hills squads. Balmer and Schird, Stäckli, Brun and Gonvcalves are just some of the strong secondary options on those terrains. There's also decent depth in time trials, and Schäppi as an okay Fabian archetype. I suppose only a better secondary sprinting option than Afewerki would've been nice.
Zwift - Newton Foundation
3.350
Elite
Jorgenson
1.000
Likely Top 40
Elosegui
500
Potential Top 40
Enger, Jussaume
800
Potential Top 60
Vernon, Lopez
500
Depth
550
We all know who Jorgenson is and what he's capable of. Elosegui has a completely independent schedule as a secondary stage racer and should fare pretty well, too - watch out for him as a potential Tour of America winner, if you ask me. Vernon and Jussaume is a very strong TT duo, Enger still a good sprinter and Lopez being a the third best climber is quite the luxury.
The depth here is decent with riders like Pronskiy and Crncevic, but nothing extraordinary. Here, too, a better second sprinter would've been neat, and cobbles are entirely ignored, but I'm not sure that matters all that much.
Ranking Prediction
Rank
Team
Est. Points
1
Bralirwa - Cegeka
3675
2
UBS - EDP
3600
3
Jura GIANTS
3550
4
McCormick Pro Cycling
3425
5
Sauber Petronas Racing
3350
6
Zwift - Newton Foundation
3350
7
Minions
3100
8
Trans Looney Tunes
3000
9
Philips - Hero
2975
10
Grieg-Maersk
2775
11
Bacharu Mamachari Faito!
2725
12
Bianchi Enel
2725
13
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
2725
14
Peugeot
2700
15
Duvel - Tsingtao
2550
16
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
2450
17
Riders of Rohan
2400
18
Tryg - Eni
2375
19
Lotto-Caloi
2350
20
Ethiopian Airlines
2100
21
Everesting
2075
22
SparkNZ - Liquigas Pro Cycling
1975
I don't love putting my team in first place, but that's just how it played out. It's a pretty close Top 6, with the promotion battle up to Philips in 9th place. The relegation battle starts with Duvel in 15th place, with Ethiopian Airlines, Everesting and SparkNZ quite clearly the bottom three.
Compared to the other three predictions so far, I don't think there are big outliers. The one where I'm maybe the furthest on my own is Lierse, which is a Top 6 team for Ulrich's projections and both kb and Heine, while I have them 13th. I could see them doing better than that, especially if Oomen and Gamper do much better than my predictions, but I'm dubious about them being a true promotion contender.
Also, like mentioned in the methodology section, the points totals are overall too high. Shave some 200-300 points off everyone and you're probably closer to the actual value. But I'm going to let it stand as is now.
I'm really curious what you guys think about these projections. I'm especially interested of course where you disagree, be it on individual riders or depth scoring. Obviously, with the categories, there's not a lot of granularity, but that's also kind of by design. Overall, I think I'm fairly happy with how it turned out.
I really enjoyed this read through. The methodology makes sense, and you're right to focus in on the better riders regarding prediction as once you get outside the Top100 there's way too much random chance involved in scoring for it to be useful analysis.
I broadly agree with your team groupings as well (not paying too much attention to the specific numbers). There's the top couple of teams, a group of promotion chasers, a mid-field, and the relegation fighters. Quite ok being in that mid-field group personally. Nailed what my team build is for the year, which is a "throw everything at lots of races and see what sticks" strategy.
If I end up 125 points behind your team, I guess that would be a pretty good season For a great season, I'd still have to beat you
I can definitely see Godoy and Schmid combining 1,500 points, even though the former has to do very well for that, and the latter performing according to expectations (if he performed according to OVL, he should score close to 1'000 points, which isn't completely unrealistic, but a long way to go).
Bissegger at 500 points would be awesome, but I don't see how he'd get there. There simply aren't enough races for TTers this year. No ITT classic, and then the Deutschland/Denmark clash that easily costs 50-60 points which cannot be scored elsewhere. He basically has Denmark, plus maybe Norway - but even winning those two (which won't happen) would only amount to roughly 300 points. Amissa Bongo definitely isn't for him, with 77 PRL he might not even make the Top 10 (Larsen should, though), and then it's just a handful ITTs where he can get stage points... I'd take 500, but I clearly don't believe he can get that.
Darbellay with 350 is optimistic, but could happen. Stewart, Szarka and Paez combining 750 points would need some overperformances by all of them.
So yeah, don't really see right now how I'd reach this score, unless the depth riders get some big surprise results in. But I'd happily take it
But generally speaking, there are many teams where you should be about right (+/- 3 positions). Including your own
For a great season, I'd still have to beat you 
