We start our predictions with the best division of them all. And although it might not be the best prediction (you’ve probably heard most analysis somewhere else already) I still want to share my thoughts.
Position
Team
Thoughts
1
SEE Turtles
They have a strong team for all terrains bar the cobbles and finally added some strong captains (including good support for them) to their traditionally great TT (and prologue) unit. I think it won’t just be enough for promotion but also the division title.
2
JEWA TIROL
JEWA probably won’t have a pre-race favourite many times, but they have such a deep team both in terrains and in riders that they will secure promotion (and maybe even a shot at the title) by consistent scoring over essentially every race.
3
Deutsche WindGuard
Wisniowski is strong enough to still score nicely in C1 or even HC races to make the most of his RDs and he even has some nice support. The depth in (hilly) sprinters will be a source of consistent points as well. I won’t be surprised by seeing them promote.
4
DeNA RoadStars
Cras is just a strong rider and he has some good support. Add some secondary scorers like Ganjkhanlou who even has is own train and this should be enough for promotion.
5
Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie
Powless should win the individual title given his pure strength and support, which in itself mostly secures promotion in CT. The secondary scorers will add just enough points to actually make it happen.
6
IESE ProCycling Team
Schlegel has some good support (and secondary scoring options) and the TTT unit is among the strongest of the division. Their manager knows how to plan for this kind of setups so I see them enter the promotion fight.
7
Tafjord Kraft
Much will depend on how Stalberg works out. But given he has a good train I think he will score decently. And although the team lacks some clear leaders throwing a bunch of climbers and puncheurs into the respective races will probably see one of them survive and score a good result (and points) more often than not.
8
Karthago
They don’t have a top notch leader, but riders like Tesfation, Neilands or Shikai should be able to score consistently given they also have support.
9
Euskotren – Pays Basque
Stocek and his support look nice for the hills, especially Lafay is a strong stage hunter (and he’s not the only one) and their cobbles squad will be able to get some good results as well. But I don’t really see them entering the fight for promotion nonetheless.
10
Fincantieri – Grand Seiko
They have some cool riders in Kinoshita, Onodera, Masnada and Smith and I expect to see them often in (late) attacks and even snatch the occasional win. But I don’t think they are still strong enough to make Fincantieri a promotion contender.
11
Simba Cement – Tanga Fresh
Owen hasn’t impressed in past seasons and apart from Schomber and a good TT unit they rely entirely on sub-top riders and depth. I see them having a hard time fighting for the top 10.
12
Air New Zealand-Prada
They have essentially the same setup as ever plus Lutsenko. He will be strong, but probably not strong enough to really propel them up the rankings much more.
13
Billstedt-Horn
I really like their setup for the future and both Galta and Stallaert might have some good results in them. But both will probably feel age catching up too often to actually contest for the top 10.
14
IncaLine Pro Cycling
They have some really fun riders in Burke and de Gendt (among others), but I expect them to play a similar role as last season: animating races and take results from breaks, but not scoring enough from it to go for a top 10.
15
Parmalat - Croatia
Welten is strong and has a train to make him work, but apart from that I expect the same from them as last year: being in breaks and get their points from there. This approach makes for some fun but not for a great position in the rankings.
16
THE ONE – Fox God
It’s a similar picture as for Air New Zealand here. They bring essentially the same kind of squad as every year and given they did not add a strong leader I expect the same result as every year: fighting against the red lantern.
17
Brandt Cycling Team
I don’t see many upside riders here and expect them to finish last in the division. But as long as they see their inaugural season as a learning experience I also don’t see why it still shouldn’t put them in a much better position for next year.
Prediction part 2, this time with the best division there is!
Position
Team
Thoughts
1
Team UBS - EDP
They have the best climber of the division and good support for him, they have one of the best sprinters, they have a good TT leader (plus a good TT unit in general) and a decent cobbler. I don’t see a better team in this division.
2
Bralirwa - Cegeka
Girmay is already a favourite in all races he’ll enter and he has a decent support cast. Amezawa has shown he’s a good option for the mountains and harder classics and they have depth in all terrains apart from TTs. I see them clearly promoting.
3
Philips - Hero
It’s a tight division and from here on the gaps between the teams are rather small. Zmorka and the TT unit are amongst the best of their kind in the division, Conci and van Dijke should be good scorers as well and they have depth options in sprints and for the cobbles. That might be enough for promotion.
4
Zwift – Newton Foundation
Jorgenson has proven he’s a beast, Elosegui will be good if he finds the right races and their TT unit has some good leaders and depth. With the right choice of races they should be right in the promotion fight.
5
Jura GIANTS
Godoy, Schmid and Bissegger are some of the best of their kind and they have some decent support to make them work which should be sufficient for promotion.
6
Lierse SK – Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Oomen and Gamper will get some results, although probably not the consistent big ones needed for promotion, so it will come down to their secondary scorers.
7
Bacharu Mamachari Faito!
Spengler is no world beater but a consistent scorer. They have some really nice riders for GCs and the hills and should be able to get enough points from them to fight for the top 10.
8
Minions
Rodrigues, van Niekerk and Jakobsen are good leaders, but probably just that bit beyond the best on their terrains to actually go for promotion.
9
Sauber Petronas Racing
It will all depend on how well they make Hirschi work. If he dominates his terrain they will end higher up, if he fails they’ll finish outside of the top 10. He has a strong support, but the hills are rather unpredictable, so I go with the middle here.
10
McCormick Pro Cycling
They have a really strong mountain unit and Simmons is a good options for the hills. If Konychev scores the occasional upset result in the flat classics a top 10 should be possible.
11
Trans Looney Tunes
Padun is the star here again and he’ll do his usual hit and miss, but the secondary scorers should be good enough for another mid-table finish.
12
Grieg-Maersk
Per is still among the best cobblers and he has shown to be consistent even on the highest level, especially with the strong support he has, and should be a top contender for the individual crown. But apart from Foss there aren’t much more scoring options so it’s hard to see them come anywhere near promotion.
13
Riders of Rohan
They rely entirely on depth, but I trust their manager to make that work on nearly every terrain and escape relegation with this strategy.
14
Bianchi Enel
They don’t have top level leaders, but the leaders they have will be enough to keep them safely mid-table.
15
Peugeot
Their setup somewhat resembles (and even equals) that of another French team that won the division last season, so why are they so far down the rankings? Well, it’s either because their manager is much worse or because their leaders just don’t have the same level of support as last year. It’s up to you to decide!
16
Duvel-Tsingtao
Benoot is a proven points-scorer in PCT and they have some decent options for most other terrains. I trust their manager to make this setup work well enough to once again avoid relegation.
17
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Eiking and Bjerg are strong riders, but they will have to really shine to get enough points to avoid going down.
18
Tryg - ENI
Ovsyannikov looks really nice on his own as a hybrid, but he’s probably too weak on the cobbles and in the sprints individually to really make a difference. And apart from THJ and their sprinters there’s too less guaranteed scoring to make it an easy season for them – and it might end in relegation.
19
Lotto-Caloi
Sadly I really see them struggling this season. I believe they will get some surprise results again, but I don’t see them getting enough points to avoid relegation.
20
Everesting
Latour is still strong, but probably not strong enough against his competitors to make up for the missing other leaders. Errazkin might be a surprise, but in general I see the team weaker than last season and it will be a rough season.
21
Ethiopian Airlines
Ewan is the best sprinter of the division, but without any real other leaders (or depth scorers) really I think they will continue the tradition of the best sprinter of PCT relegating.
22
SparkNZ – Liquigas Pro Cycling
Rodriguez is finally maxed and they have some nice riders, but nice won’t be enough to avoid relegation. At least they should have a very solid foundation for immediately bouncing back.
Tend to agree with most of your prediction. Can't quite decide who I imagine is going to win the division, but your top5 sounds pretty reasonable to me.
Going to have to work hard to avoid that relegation, but truth be told, chances aren't on our side.
Think I agree with your assessment of the team, despite Hayter completely missing which isn't a great sign of his possible impact However, I don't see us beating the likes of Zwift, Jura or even Lierse, who look to have much stronger top level leaders!
I really enjoyed the read and I think you are spot on, for the most of the placements. For our part, we are approximately where we hope. Fighting for those last promotion spots. Thanks a lot kb!
Don't like seeing us predicted outside the top 10, but I do agree that we're relying more on depth than outright top-end talent. Owen should be a top-5 cobbles rider in the division, and with one of the stronger support units around him, he ought to score consistently. Combined with Schomber's prologue results, that gives us a solid foundation. I'm just not sure how many points the rest of the squad will be able to contribute.
We finish our prediction season with the highest – and thus best – division.
Position
Team
Thoughts
1
Carlsberg – Danske Bank
I was actually surprised to see Carlsberg end this high on my list, but maybe it’s my own bad take as an answer to bbl ones. But Pedersen should be even better with his biggest rival (and predecessor) not around in most races and the biggest cobbles trainings in PCT as well. He has a strong support cast and can add some results in flat classics – as can SKA on top of his usual prologue wins. Skjelmose should be able to at least replicate his last season after training and with some more secondary scoring options on most other terrains and the reshuffling and declines of many other PT stars they might actually end as a title contender.
2
King Power
King Power is another team that already did well last season and only got better via training and transfers, so they should be another title contender. They have strong leaders in McNulty and Gidich with a really strong TT unit on top and should be able to at least score decently on other terrains.
3
Rabobank
Rabobank is the third team of last year’s top 5 with a tested setup that has seen improvement via training, this time for Evenepoel. And similar to those above them they might actually profit from this stable setup by finishing on the podium once again.
4
Indosat Ooredoo
There might be a pattern. Indosat upgraded Latour to Morton and although they sold Gaviria they improved their TT setup and their GC depth which should make up for the points lost with the Colombian.
5
ELCO - ABEA
Speaking of a pattern … It’s mostly the same story as with the other teams predicted in the top 5: they had a good setup last season and slightly improved on it (or at least kept their level), which might already be enough to make the top 5 this season.
6
Assa Abloy
And we finally have a new name! Assa Abloy just promoted back to the division, but signing Herklotz nearly guarantees a top 10 finish in itself and they have some cool leaders on top of him in Gesbert and Dainese.
7
Hunter Valley Cycling
I see another promoted team making the top 10. The Aussies were able to sign some strong local leaders in Haig and Groves and also got a good cobbles leader with Kasperkiewicz. Add some depth across all terrains and they should be far away from relegation fears.
8
Cedevita
Cedevita is another team with a rather quiet transfer period and they might do well this way. Pogacar should be able to bounce back after a weaker last season and a further trained Siric should do well too. With their depth all around I see them improving over last season and make it back to the top 10.
9
Tinkoff – La Datcha Team
Tinkoff has mostly the same setup as in their strong past seasons, but age is catching their riders and so we might see them in the top 10 for a last time before a bigger rebuild is due. But I think they are still strong enough for that top 10 given their usual depth magic.
10
Evonik - ELKO
The reigning champions opted for a medium rebuild and they will probably feel the loss of PHL, Foss and others. MAL is still a strong leader, but apart from him the team is just a good bit weaker than last season. I still see them as a top 10 contender.
11
Polar
Bernal grew even stronger by training and riders like Bagioli and Würtz will also score their points. But apart from them the team just lacks the firepower for the top 5 – and probably also for the top 10.
12
MOL Cycling Team
Finally Kudus will end his relegation curse, because he is joined by more good leaders in Stannard or Halvorsen. With some depth to help them MOL should be a solid mid-table finisher.
13
Xero Racing
Xero still has Areruya and Pidcock to keep them away from any relegation danger, but as long as they loan out their potential leaders for training I fear they won’t be able to show their full potential.
14
Specialized
Specialized is a whole new team after promotion – and one that should be strong enough to avoid relegation rather safely with someone like Wirtgen in their ranks. They have good enough depth in most terrains to end mid-table.
15
DK Zalgiris
The Lithuanians are the first of the teams I see in relegation danger, but their strong TT lineup plus their potential secondary scorers might already be enough to stay over the line – which is more a sign of how weak the lower end of the division is this year given they clearly still build for the future.
16
Bolt - Eesti
They have the best sprinter of the world in Gaviria and another strong sprinter in Peak – but not much else for other terrains. Once again this could be enough to avoid relegation if they add some surprise scoring.
17
cycleYorkshire
They’re not exactly the one-trick-pony as Bolt, but with only two real leaders in PHL and Cullaigh they will have the same hard season. I see them just make the split, but wouldn’t be surprised if they’d go down in the end.
18
Fastned
It’s a similar story to those teams just above them: Fastned has two strong (Vansevenant) or solid (Van Hooydonck) leaders but not much in addition to them.
19
Aker – AB InBev
Team number 4 with a similar story, this time the leaders are Valter and Anderberg. I fear those two won’t be enough to keep the former champions in PT.
20
Los Pollos Hermanons
And the last team with two leaders and not much more. I rate Higuita and Ocampo below the leaders of the other relegation contenders above them, and so do I rate Los Pollos in general.
21
Gazelle
I see another former champion going down as Gazelle totally rely on secondary scorers and depth and I just don’t see that work good enough to avoid relegation.
22
Ekoi - Renault
While the teams between 15th and 21st might have a case for actually avoiding relegation I don’t see one for the PCT champions.
Honestly, its cool to see a prediction that rates my team lower than i rate it myself. It's been a couple years since ive got that. Very curious how other prediction (that hopefully will come) will see that as i could see a bit of a spread there
I think i mostly agree with your CT and PCT predictions with just a few outliers, in PT i think i have a few more differences in mind. Most notable probably Indosat but also a few other teams with bigger differences - especially in your upper half..
Carlsberg for the title is an interesting call. 5th last year already and unlike others up there at least havent gotten worse or disbanded. Its not a team i expected to see at the top of any prediction and i have them outside my top 3 but its the sort of "your own bad take" that is thought provoking at least
Thanks for going to the effort with your predictions
Agree with the top-10 more or less in PCT, but would definitely reshuffle the top 5 a bit.
Carlsberg as #1 pick in PT is an interesting choice, and not totally unfounded if you think about it. Had them around the top-5 or so on my list, so interesting you have them on top.
Agree more or less with a contingent of the teams towards the bottom, but would probably put us around there too. Apart from 2-3 teams I think are likely doomed, there’s probably 8-10 others I think could realistically take the other relegation spots depending on how the season pans out. As Philips showed with Haig last year, all it takes is a few dud RD’s from a leader and you can be in serious trouble. I think roughly 2/3 of the division is weaker than expected which will make for an unpredictable season outside of the top-5 I think.
Looks like a very competitive field in both divisions. 
