As Cunego added a post on the lazy predictions about predictions I decided to start posting these. I will try to post for one division a day and then the total one in the end.
What I did was put everything into excel (like Cunego did on the lazy predictions thread, go read that one, he actually did some real work). Then asked copilot (with claude opus 4.7) to sort it and rank it. First PCT (as the final rankings came out), then PT (Had to make it do it again with the small change with Gazelle/LPH) and last CT. Thus the text might reference PCT/PT but never CT.
I asked it to rank each alone and then in the end a combined rank. It did on some occasians start to believe it was me... We have to live with the quirks here
The posts could look more beatiful as copilot added some awesome emojis... The forum don't work with them
Also, I could've gone and wrote down WJ's predictions, I didn't Thats on me! But what screams lazy more than getting AI to do all the work?
Edited by Heine on 21-05-2026 10:49
PCT Predictions vs Reality — The Full Season Review
The predictions are in, the season is over, and it's time to see who called it right — and who got it spectacularly wrong. Eight brave souls stepped up to predict the final PCT standings, and the results are... humbling for some, glorious for others. Let's break it all down.
First things first: who won the prediction game? Rankings are based on total distance — the sum of how many places each prediction was off from reality. Lower is better.
The undisputed champion of this prediction challenge.
Knockout delivered the most consistent prediction sheet of the lot, and it wasn't even particularly close. A total distance of 92 puts him 6 points clear of second-place JPH. His secret? A remarkably steady hand across the board rather than wild swings — only one truly catastrophic miss dragged him down.
Perfect Hits: MOL Cycling Team (3rd), Specialized (6th), McCormick Pro Cycling (9th), DeNA Roadstars (24th) — four perfect calls is the joint-best in the competition.
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
JEWA TIROL
5th
20th
15
Ekoi - Le Creuset
13th
1st
12
Lotto-Caloi
18th
8th
10
That JEWA TIROL call at 5th (actual 20th) is the single biggest individual miss in the entire competition — a 15-place swing. But Knockout's overall consistency more than compensated. He nailed the top end (MOL 3rd), the middle (McCormick 9th, Specialized 6th), and the bottom (DeNA 24th). When you're right that often, one bad call can't sink you.
Verdict:Deserved winner. Consistent, clinical, and composed.
JPH posted the most close predictions of anyone in the competition — an impressive 12 out of 24 were within 2 places of reality. That's half the field predicted almost perfectly. His top-end predictions were excellent: Bolt at 3rd (actual 4th), Assa Abloy at 4th (actual 5th), Specialized at 5th (actual 6th), Hunter Valley at 6th (actual 7th) — a run of four consecutive 1-off calls is seriously impressive.
Perfect Hits: Spark Team NZ (16th), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Zwift - Newton Foundation
2nd
17th
15
Trans Looney Tunes
21st
10th
11
Ekoi - Le Creuset
11th
1st
10
JPH's downfall was two big swings: backing Zwift - Newton Foundation for 2nd (they finished 17th!) and burying Trans Looney Tunes at 21st when they finished a comfortable 10th. Without those two outliers, he'd have been fighting Knockout for the crown. That Zwift call at 2nd is tied for the biggest individual miss alongside Knockout's JEWA TIROL pick.
Verdict:Incredibly sharp on the top half, but a couple of bold calls backfired.
Heine tied with Ulrich Ulriksen on total distance (100) but takes the bronze on tiebreakers — a better median distance (3 vs 4) and more perfect hits (3 vs 2). Heine's strength was clearly at the bottom of the table: Colombini Kometa nailed at 21st, IESE at 23rd, and DeNA at 24th. He also had strong mid-table reads with DK Zalgiris (predicted 4th, actual 2nd) and Specialized (predicted 5th, actual 6th).
Perfect Hits: Colombini Kometa (21st), IESE ProCycling Team (23rd), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Lotto-Caloi
22nd
8th
14
Ekoi - Le Creuset
11th
1st
10
Bolt - Eesti
14th
4th
10
Heine had Lotto-Caloi pegged as a bottom-feeder at 22nd — they finished 8th. That's a 14-place miss that really hurt. He also had Spark Team NZ way too high at 6th (actual 16th, off by 10), making it four double-digit misses. The lesson? Heine's instinct for who's bad is spot-on; his instinct for hidden risers needs some work.
Verdict:Excellent tail-end reads, but missed the season's biggest movers.
Ulrich matched Heine on total distance but loses the tiebreak. His sheet was remarkably well-balanced — no wild gambles, no huge outliers compared to some others. He nailed Specialized at exactly 6th and was the only predictor (besides Knockout) to get a top-10 team perfectly right. He also had strong reads on McCormick (predicted 10th, actual 9th) and Everesting (predicted 11th, actual 12th).
Perfect Hits: Specialized (6th), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Ekoi - Le Creuset
13th
1st
12
Lotto-Caloi
19th
8th
11
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
14th
22nd
8
Like almost everyone else, Ekoi and Lotto were his blind spots. His biggest unique miss was Simba Cement at 14th (actual 22nd) — he saw something in that team that simply wasn't there.
Verdict:Solid and dependable. Unlucky to miss the podium on tiebreaker.
The Community prediction (compiled by Cunego) represents a collective effort, and it shows — 12 predictions within <=2 places, tied with JPH for the most. The crowd was excellent at avoiding extreme calls, which kept the floor high but also meant it missed the season's biggest movers. The Community sheet reads like a "safe" prediction: strong consensus picks at the top (Hunter Valley 1st, MOL 2nd, Assa Abloy 3rd) and reasonable lower-table calls.
Perfect Hits: IESE ProCycling Team (23rd), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Bolt - Eesti
17th
4th
13
Lotto-Caloi
21st
8th
13
Zwift - Newton Foundation
5th
17th
12
The crowd had Bolt - Eesti at 17th — they finished 4th. That's a massive collective blind spot. Similarly, Zwift at 5th (actual 17th) shows the community overrated a team that completely fell flat. Interestingly, the Community prediction beat both Laurens147 and AbhishekLFC, proving that crowd wisdom has real value — even if it can't match the best individual predictors.
Verdict:Safe and steady, but lacked the bold correct calls needed to challenge the podium.
The paradox king: most perfect hits, but still only 6th.
Here's the most fascinating story of the competition. kandesbunzler26 had FIVE perfect hits — more than anyone else, including the winner. He nailed Assa Abloy (5th), Specialized (6th), Spark Team NZ (16th), Colombini Kometa (21st), and DeNA Roadstars (24th). Five! That's extraordinary.
So how did he finish 6th? Because when he missed, he missed big.
Perfect Hits: Assa Abloy (5th), Specialized (6th), Spark Team NZ (16th), Colombini Kometa (21st), DeNA Roadstars (24th) — competition best!
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Bolt - Eesti
20th
4th
16
Ekoi - Le Creuset
13th
1st
12
JEWA TIROL
8th
20th
12
Bolt at 20th (actual 4th) is a 16-place miss — the largest single-team miss in the entire competition. Combined with JEWA at 8th (actual 20th) and Ekoi at 13th (actual 1st), those three misses alone account for 40 of his 114 total distance. This is a classic case of extreme highs and extreme lows — when kandesbunzler26 was right, he was perfect; when he was wrong, he was catastrophically wrong.
Verdict:A tale of two predictions. The sharpshooter who also threw a few grenades.
Laurens147 had some excellent calls — Tryg - Eni perfectly at 13th, Spark at 16th, and a cluster of good mid-table reads. But his sheet was weighed down by three enormous misses that were hard to recover from.
Perfect Hits: Tryg - Eni (13th), Spark Team NZ (16th), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Bolt - Eesti
21st
4th
17
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
7th
22nd
15
Ekoi - Le Creuset
15th
1st
14
Laurens147 had Bolt at 21st — they finished 4th. A 17-place miss. But the most unique miss here is Simba Cement at 7th. Nobody else had Simba anywhere near that high (average prediction was 15th). Laurens147 clearly saw something in that team that simply never materialized — they crashed to 22nd. That's a bold call that went very, very wrong. Between Bolt, Simba, and Ekoi, 46 of his 132 total distance came from just three teams.
Verdict:Some sharp isolated calls, but the big misses were too big to overcome.
The contrarian who came closest on Ekoi... and farthest on Assa Abloy.
AbhishekLFC finishes last, but there's a silver lining: he was the closest to predicting the season's biggest shock. He had Ekoi - Le Creuset at 3rd — only 2 places off from their actual 1st-place finish. Nobody else came close. He also correctly identified MOL at 2nd (off by 1) and Specialized at 5th (off by 1). The problem? He had some truly eye-watering misses that dragged his total into the basement.
Perfect Hits: Sauber Petronas Racing (19th), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Assa Abloy
22nd
5th
17
Bolt - Eesti
18th
4th
14
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
9th
22nd
13
Assa Abloy at 22nd. Let that sink in. They finished 5th. That 17-place miss is tied for the largest in the competition. AbhishekLFC also had Bralirwa at 21st (actual 11th, off by 10) and JEWA at 8th (actual 20th, off by 12). His sheet had the most extreme variance of any predictor — when he zagged while the field zigged, sometimes he was brilliantly right (Ekoi!), but more often he was painfully wrong.
Verdict:The boldest sheet in the competition. Sometimes that's a compliment, sometimes it isn't.
Let's look at which teams defied the collective predictions the most. Using the average prediction across all 8 predictors versus the actual finish:
Biggest Overperformers (finished HIGHER than predicted)
Team
Actual Finish
Avg Prediction
Gap
Closest Predictor
Ekoi - Le Creuset
1st
11.3
+10.3 places
AbhishekLFC (3rd, off by 2)
Lotto-Caloi
8th
18.3
+10.3 places
JPH (14th, off by 6)
Bolt - Eesti
4th
13.8
+9.8 places
JPH (3rd, off by 1)
Bralirwa - Cegeka
11th
15.9
+4.9 places
JPH (10th, off by 1)
DK Zalgiris
2nd
5.5
+3.5 places
Heine/kandesbunzler26/Knockout (4th, off by 2)
The Ekoi - Le Creuset title win is the story of the season. Not a single predictor had them in the top 2. The closest anyone came was AbhishekLFC with 3rd. Six of eight predictors had them 11th or lower. This was a genuine shock that nobody saw coming.
Lotto-Caloi's 8th-place finish is equally stunning. The average prediction was 18.3 — that's over 10 places off. Every single predictor had them 14th or lower. Heine had them at 22nd, Community at 21st. Whatever Lotto-Caloi did this season, nobody expected it.
Bolt - Eesti finishing 4th is another shocker, though JPH deserves credit for having them at 3rd (off by just 1). Everyone else had them between 8th and 21st.
Biggest Underperformers (finished LOWER than predicted)
Team
Actual Finish
Avg Prediction
Gap
Closest Predictor
JEWA TIROL
20th
10.5
-9.5 places
Heine (15th, off by 5)
Minions
14th
6.9
-7.1 places
AbhishekLFC (11th, off by 3)
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
22nd
15.4
-6.6 places
Knockout/JPH (21st/23rd, off by 1)
Zwift - Newton Foundation
17th
11.3
-5.8 places
Ulrich Ulriksen (15th, off by 2)
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
15th
9.8
-5.3 places
Laurens147 (9th, off by 6)
JEWA TIROL is the season's biggest flop relative to expectations. Predicted 10.5 on average — multiple people had them in the top 8 — they crashed to 20th. Knockout had them at 5th (off by 15), kandesbunzler26 at 8th (off by 12). Something went very wrong for this team.
Minions were a consensus top-7 pick (average 6.9) and finished 14th. Similarly, Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team was predicted around 10th and finished 15th. Both teams significantly underdelivered.
The One Team Everyone Got Right
DeNA Roadstars: All 8 predictors called 24th. All 8 were correct. Perfect unanimity, perfect result. Some things are just obvious.
The Team Nobody Got Right
Ekoi - Le Creuset: Won the league. The closest prediction was 3rd (AbhishekLFC). Six of eight predictors had them 11th or lower. This will be talked about for seasons to come.
The JPH Bolt Masterclass
JPH predicted Bolt - Eesti at 3rd — they finished 4th. The next closest prediction was Knockout at 8th. JPH was the only person who saw Bolt's rise, and he nearly nailed it perfectly.
The kandesbunzler26 Paradox
Five perfect hits (competition best!) but still only 6th place. When your three biggest misses total 40 places of distance, even five perfect calls can't save you. A lesson in the importance of consistency over occasional brilliance.
The Heine-Ulrich Tiebreak
Both scored exactly 100 total distance. Heine takes 3rd via better median distance (3 vs 4) and more perfect hits (3 vs 2). The margins in this competition were razor-thin at the top.
What the Crowd Got Right
The average prediction was remarkably accurate for the middle and bottom of the table. Assa Abloy (avg pred 5.1, actual 5th), Specialized (5.1 vs 6th), Trans Looney Tunes (10.4 vs 10th), Spark (16.5 vs 16th), and Sauber Petronas (18.5 vs 19th) were all nearly perfectly predicted by the collective.
What the Crowd Got Wrong
The crowd massively overrated JEWA TIROL, Minions, and Gjensidige, and massively underrated Ekoi, Lotto-Caloi, and Bolt - Eesti. The common thread? The season's breakout teams were invisible to everyone pre-season, while several "safe" picks collapsed.
MOL Cycling Team — The False Favourite
Six of eight predictors had MOL at 1st or 2nd. They finished 3rd. Not a disaster by any means, but it's notable that the consensus pick for the title couldn't even get silver. The gap between predicted dominance and actual result wasn't huge, but Ekoi's surprise title means MOL's season feels like an underachievement even if 3rd is objectively strong.
Hunter Valley Cycling — The Overrated Contender
Average prediction: 2.8 (basically expected top 3). Actual finish: 7th. Four predictors had them 1st or 2nd. They were comfortably outside the top 5. The gap between expectation and reality suggests the pre-season hype around HVC was not backed up by results.
This was a season that punished conventional wisdom and rewarded those who could see past the obvious. The top 4 teams in reality (Ekoi, DK Zalgiris, MOL, Bolt) included two teams that nobody predicted anywhere near the top — and the two teams most people expected to dominate (MOL and Hunter Valley) both underperformed their predictions.
Congratulations to Knockout for taking the prediction crown with a commanding 92 total distance. His sheet wasn't flashy — no one's writing songs about predicting McCormick Pro Cycling at 9th — but it was relentlessly consistent, and in a prediction game, that's what wins.
The Team Nobody Got Right
Ekoi - Le Creuset: Won the league. The closest prediction was 3rd (AbhishekLFC). Six of eight predictors had them 11th or lower. This will be talked about for seasons to come.
The kandesbunzler26 Paradox
Five perfect hits (competition best!) but still only 6th place. When your three biggest misses total 40 places of distance, even five perfect calls can't save you. A lesson in the importance of consistency over occasional brilliance.
Having a paradox named after yourself is a great achievement in itself, but it also perfectly describes how the team achieved this incredible season!
The One Team Everyone Got Right
DeNA Roadstars: All 8 predictors called 24th. All 8 were correct. Perfect unanimity, perfect result. Some things are just obvious.
I am not sure how i should feel about this But i guess youre all welcome that i could give you this kind of result you didnt have think twice about
That JEWA TIROL call at 5th (actual 20th) is the single biggest individual miss in the entire competition — a 15-place swing.
Bolt at 20th (actual 4th) is a 16-place miss — the largest single-team miss in the entire competition
Laurens147 had Bolt at 21st — they finished 4th. A 17-place miss.
Assa Abloy at 22nd. Let that sink in. They finished 5th. That 17-place miss is tied for the largest in the competition
I love AI
It probably wrote while it worked through the data, so at least it has been correct before the next data arrived. My pupils probably would have done the same (without noticing too), so AI is strong in mimicking the behavior of unconcentrated and lazy humans, which is essentially what it is build for.
Thats on me! But what screams lazy more than getting AI to do all the work?
But i guess youre all welcome that i could give you this kind of result you didnt have think twice about 
