I felt it worked pretty well last month starting at the bottom first and that means we will (once again) start with (spoiler warning) the same top (bottom) 3. DeNA Roadstars with another not so good month (though just their 4th best month this year) with only 66 points further cementing their last place. The planning for CT most likely started 8 months ago and can just continue. In 23 we once again find IESE ProCycling Team who to be honest not really had a bad month as they had the 16th best score in August after 165 points from Denmark, still got to say they will need to plan for a CT budget next season. Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh also stay in 22nd. The month started well in Ras Tailteann but that was also the best race. Still I would not say they are doomed yet even though it looks hard for them aswell to stay up.
In 21st we find the first team falling into the relegation zone with the 2nd worst score in August. Colombini Kometa just managed to stay out of relegation in July but now finds themself well placed after falling 2 spots. Their projected score places them here aswell and they will need a late season push to climb. We have 5 teams within 110 points for the 2 last relegation spots so survival could be decided by one good result! Talking about relegation zone the last team there climbed one spot, but still not enough, in JEWA TIROL. To be honest they had a very strong month scoring 400 points with great scores in both Denmark and Deutchland but they just about find themself in that last relegating spot. Could they ride some momentum to save themself? Their projected score says yes!
Just keeping their head above water is Sauber Petronas Racing. Climbing from the dreaded 20th place into 19th they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but as already mentioned this is tight! Their projected score puts them (right now) in 20th by 7 (!!!) pts. A good month for Sauber with strong results in Denmark, Japan and GP Lugano, another team with momentum! Going from a team with momentum to one without, Everesting falls from 17th to 18th and is the team that projected score right not says will survive by 7 pts. Only scoring 92 in August does nothing to help the manager sleep well at night. The last team we can say are part of the relegation battle is Zwift - Newton Foundation. Right now they hold the 17th (climbing from 18th) but they are not even close to safe yet! To be honest this might be one of the tightest relegation battles ever! It's squeeky bum time!
Moving to the safe zone quite well ahead on both current score and projected score we find Duvel-Tsingtao, they are the team with most race days used but I doubt they care as they look safe to stay up. 359 pts this month pretty mich secure a new season in PCT even though they might loose 1 or 2 spots before the season is over. Above them Tryg - Eni falls 1 spot from 14th to 15 but still had a good month it was just that Spark Team NZ had an even better month going past them. Looking at projected scores thought we believe Tryg will take the spot back, maybe even climb some more. Another team around the same scores falls from 11th to 13, we are of course talking about Bralirwa - Cegeka. They did not have a good month but are now around the positions their projected score also places them, in one of the cozy midtable positions.
Moving into 12th we move into a field of teams who might battle for the last PT position next season considering disbandments, considering we move into a tight group once again. On projected scores there is a 70 pts difference between 5 teams. Thought I might just be trying to make some excitment as the guess right now is 7 spots and this is the battle for 8th... Anyway in 12th we find one of the preseason favorites Hunter Valley Cycling. A bad July is followed by a better August spearheaded by Post Denmark Rundt and a total of 351 points. Right above them we find the yellow menace Minions who was really close to climbing into top 10 this month. A really good month for them with 431 points!
That menas we have no new teams in the top 10, but there are some changes! McCormick Pro Cycling had a bad month falling from 7th to 10th after just 146 points. I would say the month score was somewhat saved by 61 points in the last race of the month in Milano-Torino, without that they would've been last in August. Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team stays just in front of them with 21 points more after scoring 249 points astaying in their 9th position. Also staying in their position is Trans Looney Tunes who after getting 68 points in Milano-Torino is just 2 points in front of Gjensidige! Do I smell an internal battle between the teams?
There are 2 teams left who had really bad scoring months and the first of them is Specialized with only 153 points. They fall all the way from 3rd to 7th which is also where their projected score puts them, their form looks to be going in the wrong direction though and that can be scary with the season end closing in. Right in front of them we find Lotto-Caloi who was the other team with a bad month, scoring only 126 points and falling all the way to 6th from 2nd.
MOL Cycling Team stays in 5th with some teams moving past them and some teams falling behind them. 239 points is not a great month, but as long as you stay in a promotion spot they can't really complain? Assa Abloy! on the other hand is most likely ecstatic. 662 points and climbing to 4th all the way from 10th! That is what I call a great month! They raced pretty much every race this month (and that helps)!
Ekoi - Le Creuset didn't really have a bad month, but they still fell from 1st to 3rd maybe telling us that there was some teams who had a really good month? Specially considering that we have already covered the other top 3 teams from last month. Promotion still feels secure for Ekoi and they are still the favorite on projected points. Tour of Japan was the highlight. Ekoi is also the team with the 2nd least used race days til now this year, thought that means less of their projected points are already in the bank
Bolt - Eesti moves into 2nd from 4th with a good month scoring 431 points. They are another team where I would say promotion starts to feel sure!
The new leaders however move all the way from 6th, maybe they are blessed? DK Zalgiris is right now leading with 6 (!) points over Bolt. From Post Denmark Rundt pretty much everything has gone their way and they end with a total score of 634 for the month only beaten by Assa Abloy and they move all the way from 6th
In total as I see it we now have 4 teams (Bolt, DK, Assa and Ekoi) who looks to have promotion secured, while we have 3 teams (DeNA, IESE and Simba) who can start considering how to lower their wage cost. The battle for both the last promotion but specially the last relegation spots are really tight and we can be ready for a nailbiting end of the season!
Best rider this month, with 209 points from Post Denmark Rundt moves from 18th to 4th on the individual rankings and it is no surprise that it is Rokas Kmieliauskas. His team mate Alexey Lutsenko also with a great month moving into 9th position after his GP Lugano win. Steven Lammertink, Andres Camilo Ardila and Marc Hirschi also had great months even though they are still outside the top 10.
Talking about top 10 however we have 3 riders falling out of it, Mark Padun who did nothing, Przemyslaw Kasperkiewicz who scored 50 pts on Arenberg and Tiesj Benoot with 37 pts from Lugano. Togheter with the DK Zalgiris boys we have Alberto Dainese climgin into top 10 by getting to 10th.
Inside the top 10 Biniam Girmay (to 8th), Matteo Jorgenson (to 7th) and Caleb Ewan (to 5th) all falls this month as they did nothing.
Climbing from 7th to 6th is Elie Gesbert after great results in Gisborne and Milano-Torino. Barnabas Peak also climbs from 4th to 3rd, he is still some way behind Neilson Powless who falls from 1st to 2nd. The new leader however is French veteran sprinter Bryan Coquard! Ras Tailteann his big score this month!
There was some mistakes in version 1, I have tried to fix them. Hopefully I got them all fixed, but if there are some left just ignore them The lists should be right anyway
Certainly not a bad month and it was needed. Promotion is certainly in sight and would take quite a catastrophe to miss out on it. Unlikely to win the division as half the remaining races are throwaways, but both Lutsenko and Kmieliauskas have two races left (Rokas probably aint doing too much in either but still), so with some luck in other races maybe it is still possible.
Promotion still not sealed regardless of what Heine may say
We probably need roughly 8 or 9 PpRD from here to be sure of it (factoring in the first September races), but given that our remaining RDs are Baltic Chain, Quebec, Maroc, South Africa and Philadelphia there is a very real chance we don't even manage that level of scoring. In that case we'll be hoping for others not to continue on their current trajectories, which is possible but not guaranteed, and for nobody else to emerge from the pack to catch us.
Very good month. If we keep it up we might end up in the top ten after all, though PPRD doesn't look favorable. Exciting two months all around the board
Thanks for another great update (even the second this month )!
I hoped we could stay on top after another good month, but at least 7th place seems secured as we essentially are already above the predicted scores of everyone below that. And with all our RDs remaining (and only Baltic Chain as a sure throwaway race) a regular promotion spot should be in reach and there's even still some hope to actually fight for the division crown.
Other than that I'd say the top 5 at the moment will probably also be the top 5 at the end, although I suspect MOL could still rise a bit. Lotto and Specialized seem to be rather secure for 6th and 7th and the probable disband promotions.
At the bottom we're in for another nail-biter. I'd say all those additional RDs give JEWA actually the best shot among the 5 contenders. Colombini will depend upon Powless having one or two great races left (Eastman wasn't that good all season), but at least they have the potential for big scores. I don't know how many RDs Hirschi has left, but with all those hilly races still coming I wouldn't count Sauber out yet. But the same goes for Everesting and Stannard (and they have Rodrigues for the classical stage races too). And Zwift has Jorgenson to get them the points needed ...
My gut feeling says it will be Colombini and Sauber going down
I was near giving up on promotion after the previous ranking update. Thankfully we have turned the trend around with a really strong month, and hope is back on the table!
Dainese and Gesbert continue to deliver, but Hanninen and Culey also showed up this month with strong results.
The fight for the title will also be interesting. I’m keeping Ekoi as favourites, but Zalgiris and MOL should not be counted out, I think.
It’s been a pretty enjoyable season for us, midtable obscurity was the hope and it seems we’re getting enough points to achieve that goal.
Still too early to celebrate as all the chasing teams have quality and point scorers, but it’s definitely going to be an interesting end to the season at both ends of the table.
The lists should be right anyway
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