Disclaimer: I made the points system for CT before the transfer season started. It is based on last season (and how different types and level of riders did), my thoughts about PCM24 and some pure guessing. In general I see that total score across the division(s) are lower than last years score, so I most surely undervalue some riders and terrains, as an example cobble scores will be interesting in CT with the weak field. I also did not, at all, consider how teams look in total (2+2=5 for points) but only purely on points from riders.
My plan is to have a preview of all divisions. For CT the preview is, as said in the disclaimer, based on me giving every rider an "expected CT pts" before transfers started. For PT and PCT I did this after transfers and only for riders in PT and PCT. I will give some comments on talents, but in general I haven't searched too much for loan outs and might forget some. I would like to note that I made the points system so that the rider ending up in different positions have about the same score as last year (so the score for 15th last year is around the same as for 15th in my ranking)
So without further ado, lets do some riders ranking to start. Might be some of these are a bit boring, but gives everyone a feeling of the pts setup. Riders with several skills will get ranked higher some places (Prl riders with good sprint, sprinters with good hill, climbers with good tt etc)
Top 10 climbers riders according to my system (Mon is highest main stat):
Position
Last name
1
Almeida
2
Jorgenson
3
Eastman
4
Rodrigues
5
Sosa
6
Novak
7
Reis
8
Yates
9
Elosegui
10
Shikai
Top 10 puncheurs riders according to my system (Hill is highest main stat):
Position
Last name
1
Hirschi
2
Lutsenko
3
Stannard
4
Benoot
5
Gesbert
6
Eiking
7
Van Niekerk
8
Paret-Peintre
9
De Bie
10
Van der Poel
Top 10 TT riders according to my system (TT is highest main stat):
Position
Last name
1
Powless
2
Kmieliauskas
3
Conci
4
Cataford
5
Van Moer
6
Bjerg
7
Beniusis
8
Cosnefroy
9
Lammertink
10
Vernon
Top 10 Cobble riders according to my system (Cob is highest main stat):
1
Girmay
2
Kasperkiewicz
3
Wisniowski
4
Gaday
5
Stallaert
6
Zepuntke
7
Polanc
8
Moulingui
9
Tediashvili
10
Hvideberg
Top 10 Sprinter according to my system (Sprint is highest main stat):
Position
Last name
1
Ewan
2
Dainese
3
Coquard
4
Peak
5
Grosu
6
Demare
7
Enger
8
Kamberaj
9
Thijssen
10
Jakobsen
Top 10 wage effective riders according to my system (pts/wage):
Position
Last name
1
Kelderman
2
Almeida
3
Inkelaar
4
Powless
5
Debesay
6
Hermans
7
Bystrom
8
Soler
9
Hirschi
10
De Bie
Top 10 OVL effective riders according to my system (pts/OVL):
Position
Last name
1
Almeida
2
Hirschi
3
Ewan
4
Jorgenson
5
Lutsenko
6
Dainese
7
Stannard
8
Eastman
9
Girmay
10
Powless
Top 10 riders according to my system (Points):
Position
Last name
1
Almeida
2
Hirschi
3
Ewan
4
Jorgenson
5
Lutsenko
6
Dainese
7
Stannard
8
Powless
9
Eastman
10
Girmay
For PCT I see less difference on the "effectivenes" rankings than I did in CT. Even though compared to wage there is a mixture of 50k riders (potential steals) joining the rankings. I hope poeple find these interesting, teams will follow!
Like with CT we will do the rankings from last to first. As I would like to split the predictions in 3 parts I will start with the 8 lowest ranked teams on my ranking and then we can work our way from there
24 DeNA Roadstars
Best rider: Cras
Other scorers: eeeeeh
Sorry Ezee, you know I love you but my scoring rankings do not love you.
Cras is a good rider, and he got some nice support riders in Lipowitz, Arifin and Delbove. Riders like Vengheluwe, Batmunkh, Mayrhofer and Stalberg could score some points but it will not be enough for DeNA. I believe they will go right back to CT. Then we should focus on the positive, picture this squad 3-4 years into the future! Thats something different.
This is the most talented squad in the game, with several awesome riders spearhaded by Gregoire. While this season could end up being the lowest scoring PCT season ever, the future is Bright if they can keep it together!
23 IESE ProCycling Team
Best rider: Novak
Other scorers: Cataford, Cerny, Jsensen, Neuman
Novak is the clear number one in this team and headlines the team as a great climber. He has some good support riders in Bernard, Otruba, Sakalou, Schleck, Kolar and Preidler that can score extra points and help Novak.
Cataford is another strong rider who should have a good season with his combination of TT, energy stats and climbing.
After Novak and Cataford the main thing to notice is puncheur depth who could be able to help and drive the team away from relegation. Specially Cerny with his sprint on top of his puncheur abilities can do well.
The big question for IESE is if they are somewhat able to get points from their depth. Can Ahlstrand find some of his old Magic? Can they get some points from TTT? Can they score some c2 points? I am not sure, and right now I think relegation looks likely for IESE.
22 Lotto-Caloi
Best rider: Liu/Min
Other scorers: Vasyliv, Spanopoulos, Oliveira, Vakoc, Finkler, Gee, Daniel, Wouters
Lotto is a team made more around depth than top riders for the division.
Min, Vasyliv and Spanopoulos are good riders, but with the level of climbers in the division they are just not up there at the top to really score big. Same for puncheurs, Vakoc, Oliveira and Finkler would be really awesome CT riders, but the level is just that much higher in PCT and that is the challenge for Lotto. For sprinting Liu is a good sprinter, and he should score good points this season, while I don't really see alot of points from Daniel/Ariesen/Chatarunga in the cobble races. There will be some points, but not a lot.
In general Lotto have to hope that their depth can save them. I believe it wont be enough, but there are several riders here that I might have ranked lower than they should've been.
21 Colombini Kometa
Best rider: Powless
Other scorers: Eastman, El Sabbahi, Xandri
I have to say I did not believe a team lead by Powless and Eastman would be placed as one of the relegating teams, but I have problems seeing a lot of scoring after those 2.
Powless with his training I rank as the best TTer in the division. His climbing, hill stat and energy stats convince me. He will be very fun to follow this season, and the next season. If I am correct and Colombini relegates he should potentially be the best CT scorer ever. Eastman while declining is a good rider. I rank him 3rd best climber in the division. He got fine energy stats and are a very good TTer.
Then the problems start... El Sabbahi is at best a good sprinter, Xandri and Jele er luxury domestiques at best, and the rest of the team is unmaxed… Might be a lucky breakaway here and there, but the Money used on Del Toro will most likely relegate the team. Still, with Del Toro, it might be worth it?
20 Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
Best rider: Carapaz
Other scorers: Choi, Bisegger, Debesay, Sanikwathi, Azman, Rodriguez, Meurisse, Sureda, McKenna, Hamza
Like with Lotto a squad built around depth, but for me lacking the big scorers.
Carapaz might look good but I see him as a rider who will dissapoint this season, even thought I believe he will be Simbas lead scorer. Choi is better value in my eyes, and he might do better than Carapaz considering his better Stamina and slightly better TT. In general I believe Simba has undervalued stamina considering PCM24 (or maybe I overvalue it?). They have climbing depth with Azman, Rodriguez and Carpenter, hilly depth with Azman, Rodriguez, Meurisse, McKenna and Carpenter, cobble depth with Debesay (good value!), Billot, Yechezkel and Manamalage, TT depth with Bissegger, Turek, Jungels and Vanderpool and sprinting depth with Sanikwathi, Sureda, Hamza and Barbari.
Simba will need to hope that depth and depth scoring can save the team from relegation!
19 Tryg - Eni
Best rider: Johannessen
Other scorers: Demare, Polanc, Walls, Sheehan, Pira, Honore, Pedersen
First team avoiding relegation and Johannesen is the main rider for Tryg - Eni with Pira as a very good main domestique. Will be interesting to see what he can do in the Mountains.
Demare with his hill stat is an awesome sprinter, but will he start to feel his age this season? His energy stats are starting to take a real hit. Still, he will score a good amount of points! Polanc is another ageing rider here, his combination of cobbles and climbing has made him overperform for many years, will he do it this season as well? Or will the decline take away some of his Magic? Walls is a good sprinter, and Tryg got a good train for him and Demare in Pedersen, Huertas, Lander and Stocker. While Sheehan and SLeen got a nice combination of TT and hill, but lack a tiny bit to be top level.
I expect Tryg to fight against relegation, but just manage to stay in PCT.
18 Sauber Petronas Racing
Best rider: Hirschi
Other scorers: Misbah, Einhorn, Scaroni, Ziljaard, Natarov
They might call themself a San Marinese team, but lets be honest, this is Hirschi's team. One of the top riders of the division with awesome hill stat, great energy stats and great climbing. The man to beat in hilly classics and I bet PT teams are happy to see him ride in PCT.
Behind Hirschi the team is weaker, but Misbah and Natarov are good climbers with a lot of nice support riders. Scaroni and Lazkano will most likely help Hirschi quite a lot, but should get their own chanses and score points when they can, aswell as depth points. Einhorn is a good sprinter, while not right there at the top and Ziljaard while developing cuold still score points.
Sauber Petronas is depending on Hirschi to stay up in my opinion, but he is a rider they can depend on!
17 Bralirwa - Cegeka
Best rider: Girmay
Other scorers: Amezawa, Van Eetvelt, Tesfatsion, Hodeg, Ndayisenga
Girmay is awesome and already one of the best cobble riders in the world. He should score very well this season!
Amezawa is another great rider with great energy stats and I rate him highly. After that we start seeing that the team spends quite a lot of money on talents, even though Van Eetvelt, Tesfasion and Ndayisenga should be able to do very well on climbs. Might be they race mostly as support for Amezawa? Tesfatsion could look like a puncheur, but with his low stamina I don't really rate him there. Hodeg is a nice sprinter, but you can not rely on him scoring that much. Habimana and Teggart are good support riders for Girmay, and might ride some CT cobbles?
As a note this team also spends quite some money on talents, and got 1 rider declining next season. I believe this team only will be better!
Best rider: Fuglum Karlsson
Other scorers: Bettiol, Stallaert, Lyu, Hermans, Chen, Andriafenomananiaina, Blouwe, Willwohl
Newly promoted and I believe they will manage to stay up.
Fuglum Karlsson is a very nice GC rider with great energy stats and a good TT (and awesome prl). He got some nice support riders in Chen and Andriafenomananiaina (I really like his wage at 65k). Stallaert spearheads the important cobble classics for a belgian team. In Stallaert you could wish for some better hills and resistence, but his sprint and flat will be very valuable in the classics season. Venturini, Dewulf and Vermeersch are perfect support riders for Stallaert and can be used both as cobble domestiques and leadout.
Bettiol is a rider I believe will have a very strong season with his energy stats, sprint and accelleration. Just the type of rider to overperform his main stat. Hermans, Lyu and Louwe gives great depth here. Willwohl is the main sprinter, not among the top in the division but if planned well should do well. I also rate Dlamini as the type of rider that will score good points.
All in all I feel Duvel is well made to stay up, and considering the wage spent on talents (330k on Uijdebroeks, 215k on Pool, 100k total on Pollefliet and Ju, and 200k on loaned in Del Grosso) Duvel has created a very strong team this season. If they manage to stay up as I predict the future is very bright, specially around Poole and Uijtdebroeks.
15 JEWA TIROL
Best rider: De Bie
Other scorers: Grosu, Hirt, Lammertink, Mengoulas, Lienhard, Grossschartner, Boudat, Losch, Nys
JEWA TIROL is an interesting team, they have several good (but old) riders that both look strong and look to have weaknesses. Helps for the team to have good depth pretty much all over.
De Bie with his history and hill skill is a good rider, one of few over 80 hill riders who can TT well. I think while his stamina and resistance could've been better they should help 1 more season, and I guess that is what JEWA are looking for. Grosu is a lot of the same. I love his hill combined with sprinting, but he is declining and I would've wished for some more flat stat. Hirt is a good, but aging climber and Lammertink is a good TTer, with ok hill.
Depthwise riders like Grossschartner (are 3 s's in a row allowed?) Nys, Heymans, Bellan, Iturria, Laurance and TTers will help. Specially Bellan with his energy stats I like a lot. Orue and Mengoulas leads the cobble squad where I don't really rate Orue, but I really rate Mengoulas with his flat and TT. Will be interesting to see how he does and is planned. Will Boudat and Losch ride for themself or will the be leadout for Grosu? Both might be viable tactics. I really like Nys as a future puncheur for this team, will be fun to see him this season and in the future!
In general a team that I think will be at the bottom half and that might fight against relegation. De Bie and Grosu might be a bit hit and miss and that will decide if JEWA finds themself really fighting for survival or pretty safe
14 Bolt - Eesti
Best rider: Peak
Other scorers: Van der Poel, Errazkin, Burke, Mansouri, Dekker, Brunel, Pithie, Zariff
If anyone managed to keep track of the transfer acitivity here I would be impressed, large changes from last season for the now Estonian team. Quite a lot of money used on Romeo and Mihkels but I still think the team will avoid relegation and find themself right under midtable.
Barnabas Peak is the biggest headlight with his amazing flat to propel he up among top sprinters. A bit unsure how to rank him, but I set his point score as best on this team. Van der Poel is a really interesting rider who can do everything. He must be both fun to plan, and a nightmare to plan. I expect him to score well this season and that PCM24 fits him like a glove, I would be really excited to see him in some of the harder cobble races with his stat combo.
Errazkin and Burke are good climbers/puncheurs with nice energy stats and I would not be suprised if they both overperform their main stats. Great riders to have. Same can be said about Mansouri! Zariff is another good sprinter, who I guess will be sent around places where Peak will not go. On the other hand I both like Dekker more than him, and are more unsure how Dekker will be used. He looks like a dream leadout for Peak, but might be better to let him ride on his own with his flat and stamina? A great rider no mather what. Considering I've written this much, and not mentioned Brunel and Pithie shows how deep this team is. Brunel is a good TTer with nice Hill and Flat, while Pithie is a great cobble talent who can do well this season already with his cobble, hill and sprint!
If I am right and this team keep their PCT spot this is a scary team with Pithie, Romeo and Mihkels for the future, not to mention that Peak is still only 27 and could be trained more!
13 Zwift - Newton Foundation
Best rider: Jorgenson
Other scorers: Elosegui, Welten, Welten, Vernon, Lauk
Last years CT winners and I see this as a building year in PCT.
Quite different from many of the other teams til now with them being very dependent on two big starts in Jorgenson and Elosegui. With their skills this might be a good plan, I love how both of them looks! Jorgenson is an awesome GC rider with climbing, hills, TT and great stamina and resistance. His only weakness is recovery. Elosegui on the other han can recover so well he is most likely feeling better after an hard stage than after a rest day, and while he is weaker in hills and TTs than Jorgenson he is still an awesome rider.
Behind Jorgenson and Elosegui it quickly gets weaker. Welten is a good sprinter and okayish cobbler, while Vernon should score well in prologues and TTs combined with flat and sprinting. Lauk is more of an leadout guy than a sprinter, but with his flat he should still get good results. Pronskiy and Kozhatayev I guess will mostly be domestiques for the bit two. Craddock has a nice stat combo and should score some points.
Its worth to notice that the team has spent big on Simmons and Blackmore and that is why I see this as a building year. Use this year to develop them, then push for promotion together with their young main stars in the future. Strong team dependent on two riders, but when these two are at that level it should go well for Zwift.
12 Trans Looney Tunes
Best rider: Padun
Other scorers: Govekar, Zabel, Moulingui, Primozic, Mavrikakis, Knox, Rucigaj, Page
Signing Padun after many years under Fjhoekies wings was always going to get ridiculed a bit, but I believe the Looney Tunes has built a pretty nice squad here, even if Padun is overpaid, with many riders that can and will pick up points.
Padun is the main event, great climber and puncheur but his energy stats puts him a tad bit under the very top. Govekar is a nice puncheur with a sprint who I think should do well this season. Zabel is a rider I had myself, he is not the very best of sprinters, but together with Page and planned alright I think it will give enough points over a full season. Moulingui is in the field behind the top cobble riders and should together with good depth here do well. Primozic is the opposite of Padun, his main stats don't look that great, but those energy stats! I expect him to do well. To be honest in the climbing department the depth is really great with him, Mavrikakis, Knox and Rucigaj.
In general a team with a lot of depth after Padun that I think should score enough points even if Padun dissapoints and they end up in 12th.
11 Ekoi - Le Creuset
Best rider: Ranaweera/Paret-Peintre
Other scorers: Zepuntke, Kung, Boileau, Lapeira, Rajovic, Vauquelin, Louvel, Garibian
A team that in my opinion has breakout potential to do better than the position, but my points place them in 11th. Lots of money spent on talents means a lot of wage cap not giving points.
Ranaweera is a good climber with a nice TT, but just under the very top of the division. Paret-Peintre is a great puncheur with a good sprint that will do well again this year. Zepuntke on the other hand is a perenial dissapointer, he might be helped by his stamina but I still place him a step or two behind the best. Kung on the other hand is a rider I really like with his versatility topped with great TT/Prl. There is also some great breakout potential in riders like Louvel, Garibian, Kastransik and Quispe to score higher than I have set that they should do. If that happens Ekoi might find themself fighting for promotion.
I will end this by saying that with the development of Lapeira, Vauquelin, Cosiou and not to forget Martinez the team got some great regional riders comeing trough! If I am right about 11th here I believe it will be the lowest they get in the next 5 years.
10 Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Best rider: Eiking
Other scorers: Enger, Arensman, Van Moer, Lunke, Hvideberg, Bystrom, Waersted
A team with a very easy to see regional focus, and I have to start by saying the team looks good.
Eiking is the big leader and I believe PCM24 is a perfect game for him. MM helps his kinda bad mountain stat and he got great stamina. I expect a top season from Eiking this year. Enger on the other hand I am a bit more cold towards. His sprint is good, and I like his TT skill but at his wage I would've wanted a bit more acc and flat on a sprinter. Still should score good points.
Arensman is a good climber who can ride hills and TT and together with Lunke he will help Gjensidige insure (see what I did there?) a good position this season. Van Moer is another of the foreginers I believe will be good with his TT, energy stats, flat and some hill. He did well last year and should repeat one division up. On the negative side, even though he is a nice roulour
I think Idar Andersen is overpaid and bad value at 155k, might be a better rider next year with lower wage. To complemente the rest of the squad riders like Waerenskjold, Knotten and Vangstad helps on TTs while Skjerping, Seigle, Doubay and Bystrom are good puncheurs to support Eiking.
I believe this will be a good season for the newly promoted squad
9 Everesting
Best rider: Stannard
Other scorers: Rodrigues, Uwizeyimana, Kuroeda, Kusi, Adomaitis, Grosser, Henao, Gavars
Stanndard and Rodrigues is the headlines of the team. Stannard regional rider who will lead the team in the hills with his awesome accelleration and will to attack, Rodrigues with his climbing ability, TT and good backup stats support by riders like Uwizeyimana, Heano, Gavars, Benito and Sunderland. I expect both of those riders to score good points, and the team to get points via depth.
Clement Kusi is a nice TTer who can survive some hills, he is a step behing the best in the division but his wage makes him good value. Kuroeda is a good cobble rider with a srpint, and should form a good cobble squad together with Schreurs and Muhindo. Adomaitis is a good sprinter and I like his flat and prologue ability, with Kooistra as a great leadout rider he should have a good season. I also really like the type of rider Grosser is and at 50k he is great value!
In the end I expect Everesting to end up a bit outside of promotion but on the upper half of the table
Best rider: Reis
Other scorers: Van Niekerk, Kamberaj, Bjerg, Kalaba, Rubio, Kipkemboi, Jiang, Cepeda Hernandez
Rafael Reis signed as the main leader and star of the team and I believe he should deliver for the second year in a row. Reis used to be an underperforming leader, but with the games going more towards stamina and energy stats and away from acceleration it only helps Reis. He got several good support riders like Rubio (a rider I like a lot), Vosekalns and Quintana.
The other main rider on the team is well known as AvN. A strong puncheur who loves to attack. I would've wished for a bit better stamina but he should be a good rider for the yellow menace this season. Kipkemboi and and Cepeda Hernandez are great support riders and good riders when AvN can't race.
Kamberaj and Kalaba are two sprinters who should do well. I really like Kalaba with his prl ability. Strong prologue and TT is noticiable in this squad with Bjerg being the main TTer, another rider I can see having a good year.
In the end I rank Minions just a few spots outside of promotion with a strong year
7 McCormick Pro Cycling
Best rider: Sosa
Other scorers: Yates, Riabushenko, Daniel, Cabrera, Kuss, Godon, Osorio, Narvaez, Zhao
McCormick is first and foremost a strong climbing squad both with leaders and depth.
Sosa and Yates are the big headlines. Great riders with good main stats and strong energy stats. I can see both of them scoring really well. After them the main focus is the climbing depth together with a TT train. Cabrera helps on both, while Kuss, Osorio, Hoehn and Revard are more climbers. Daniel, Eekhoff, Mostov and Wolf should be essantial parts of a strong TTT team.
If we think that Sosa wont ride many hilly classics Narvaez and Godon could end up being the main puncheurs of the team and they are 2 steps down from the best in the division, could still get some nice results though. Eekhoff is the main cobbler, and while I like his value, his backup stats and his TT he is not among the top cobblers. Still at 55k he will overperform that wage by a lot! Riabushenko is another rider a bit behind the top riders of his type, but a strong flat and a nice leadout rider in Zhao should help.
I see this as a good season from McCormick and another team that should figt for promotion but just ends up a bit short
6 Spark Team NZ
Best rider: Coquard
Other scorers: Rodriguez, Kelderman, Bennett, Edmondsonx2, Power, Aferwerki
Barely promoted but I really rate what they have done, still I place them right outside direct promotion this year.
Keeping Rodriguez and Bennett was no suprise and both should score some good points this season while Rodriguez develop into the monster he will be from next year. Coquard while declining is still one of the best sprinters of the game and if he is planned well should be the top scorer for Spark.
Kelderman is great value at 90k, he might dissapoint but if he dosen't (and I believe PCM24 will help him) he should be extremely important for the team. Edmondson is a good cobble rider when you consider his sprint, he just needs to surive, and riders like Power, Edomndson (the other one), Lemus Davila and Duyvesteyn should be good supportriders. Coquard also got a good sprint train with riders like Edmondson, Afewerki and Mudgway. Howson and Marryatt are good TTers, but lack some support stats and the depth behind them aint great for TTT.
This is a team I feel my points system might rank a bit too high just looking at it. Riders like Coquard and Kelderman might score less than I expect and thus send them down the table. Still right here and now, before any races I rank them 6th.
5 Specialized
Best rider: Kasperkiewicz
Other scorers: Inkelaar, Quita, Kennet, Van Poppel, Barguil, Battistella, Baroncini, Milan, Potocki, De Vos, Sulimov
First team I predict on direct promotion and we get to Specialized.
The big guy on the Canadian team is Kasper, one of the greatest cobble riders in the world. He is the kind of rider that needs to attack before the finish but his backup stats should help him with that. Sulimov, Kumara and GvK offers him a lot of support. After Kasper the duch climber Inkelaar is the big name on the team, and great value in my opinion at 140k. A strong rider with good backup stats that together with Barguil and the good climbing depth with Battistella, Potocki and De Vos should help Specialized get the points they need behind Kasper.
Quita is the main puncheur of the team. A rider who both can sprint at the end of the races and handle the longer climbs. I like Quita a lot. Danny Van Poppel might look like the best sprinter on the team, but with his flat stat and better prl I rate Kennet higher, together they make a good sprinting pair that they can send to most of the flat stages they want.
I believe the climing depth and main leaders if just enought to secure Specialized promotion.
4 DK Žalgiris
Best rider: Lutsenko
Other scorers: Kmieliauskas, Lasinis, Beniusis, Tediashvili, Nommela, Roman, Januskevicius, Nareklishvili
In 4th place I place the team with rider names I both hate to write and prounouce.
One of the easier ones is the teams ageing puncheur star Lutsenko. A strong rider even in his decline and still got the (joint) highest hill stat in the division. Riders like Robov, Janusekvicius and Olesen should offer great support for him and I expect at least one more great season from Alexey.
Lasinis is a good climber who just lacks a bit to be among the top of the division, still a rider who together with Roman and Crncevic. Tediashvili and Nareklishvili forms a good cobble duo. I like them both for their "extra" stats that should help them trough the year and to secure points. Nommela is also a good sprinter who should do a job on cobbles while not being among the best.
Then comes the part of the team that I guess the manager is most proud about, the TT duo Kmieliauskas and Beniusis. Beniusis were toted around during transfers at a high price with no bite but should be a good rider for Zalgiris this season. Kmieliuaskas is maxed and comes with good climbing for such a good TTer. Should be a great scorer for Zalgiris in a season I believe will end with promotion to PT
3 Hunter Valley Cycling
Best rider: Shikai
Other scorers: Gaday, Conci, Jakobsen, Thijssen, Storer, Cosnefroy, Soler, Hesters, Miquel, Hamilton
Relegated from PT last year and I see them going straight up again.
Chikai and Conci are good GC riders who both can climb and TT. Shikai the better climber and Conci the better timetrialist. I believe they will do well this season and secure a lot of points. There are some great support riders here with a very strong TTT squad and climbers like Soler and Hamilton.
Gaday is a cobble riders I rank highly based on his awesome ability over hills, which there use to be quite a lot of in cobble classics. He also got a nice sprint to finish off races. Talking about sprints the sprinting pair of Jakobsen and Thijssen looks very strong, and Hester looks like one of the best leadout riders in the division. The main puncheur of the team, Storer, lacks a bit of stamina and resistence in my eyes but other than that there are an abundance of energy riders and nearly all of the TTers are also good on other terrains or as rolours. Consenfroy is the type of TT rider that usually scores well and should have a good season.
I see a new PT season for this team, finishing 3rd
2 Assa Abloy
Best rider: Dainese
Other scorers: Wisniowski, Gesbert, Johannessen, Morin, O'Connor, Rickaert, Boswell, Abdul Halil, Hänninen
Most of the teams have strong climbers as their main leaders but Assa Abloy goes against that. Not that Johannessen and O'Connor are not good riders, they are, but there are riders on this team that I believe will score much better than them.
Dainese is the first rider I would like to mention, and I rank him as the 2nd best sprinter in PCT. He got strong backup and energy stats and should end up scoring a lot of points for Assa Abloy. Abdul Halil can ride races Dainese can't go to and riders like Rickaert and Coutinho are good leadout riders.
Wisniowski, even while in decline, is one of the best cobble riders in the world. His flat will help a lot but I am a bit concerned about his stamina and resistence. Still a great rider! Gesbert on the other hand got all the energy stats you can wish for, and several good domestiques in Morin, Boswell and Hänninen.
I believe the leaders and good support riders will be enough for Assa Abloy to end 2nd and go back up to PT
1 MOL Cycling Team
Best rider: Almeida
Other scorers: Ewan, Benoot, Ardila, Brozyna, Scotson
Who needs depth when my predictions say that their top 5 riders will get enough points to win the division? I rate (specially the top 4 here) so highly that the difference between 1st and 2nd is bigger than the difference between 5th (Specialized) and 17th (Bralirwa).
Almeida is the best rider in the division and should win the individual standings. He is the best climber, got great energy stats and survivable hill and TT. He should win every stage race he shows up for. Caleb Ewan I rank as the best sprinter in the division, and with Baterdene, Stash and Stewart he has a train aswell. I have him ending up 3rd on the individual ranking. Benoot promoted last year, but decided to take another year in PCT and secure another promotion. I have him as the 4th ranked puncheur and he should score well again this year. Le Gac is his closest support rider and the team looks lacks depth here.
Ardila is the rider that I believe can dissapoint this year. He is great on the climbs, but his energy stats is kind of trash. Still his climbing and hilly ability will make him score. I believe Benoot is the strongest cobble rider on the squad, but unsure how much he races in those races, then they will have to rely on Moricz and Scotson. Good riders but not top riders. Scotson offers some TTing and prl that should give him some extra points over the season.
Borzyna is a climber that most likely will lead when Almeida or Ardila can't race. An okay rider, and together with Rhim and Carretero Millan can pick up some extra points for the team.
This is one of the teams with the least depth in the entire division, still I set them as the clear strongest team and winning the division!
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That concludes PCT. As you can understand a bit from what I wrote about MOL the division looks very tight for me. Simba Cement (last relegation spot) I have ranked just 200 pts from Zwift in 13th. I have a clear winner (MOL) and a clear last place (DeNA) and those I am pretty sure about, I also have some difference between 2nd and 3rd and 4th and 5th, then it becomes very tight. Will be very interesting to see how far off I've been when the season is over. In general I see PCT as the hardest division to predict and planning ability is not part of how I've done this, that might throw everything upside down
Yeah, I was surprised myself as I did score every rider and then let that decide the ranking (so I did pts -> saw ranking -> then did the writeup). Ended up being several teams that really surprised me witht their rankings.
When I did this kind of thing earlier I did it purely on "eye-test" and used to be really wrong, so fun to do it in another way
You know, I won't be mad if I relagate. It appears that the disband promotion is the "kiss of death" for me - every time I promote this way, I got relagated.
As consensus is backing up my initial suspicions that we've built a mid-table roster, I'm pleased to see 16th rather than 19th, but I imagine this will be a touch and go season for awhile!
Hoping I've managed to learn from my planning mistakes and actually give the squad a chance of scoring points in all races this year...
Thanks for the preview Heine, really sensible thoughts on all the teams posted so far. Hard to disagree with your assessment of Gjensidige as well...makes me wonder if I should've been even more annoying to hillis to get that price on Eiking higher
Decided to stagger the updates a bit more while we are waiting for the season and thus I will finish PCT first. So here comes the last (or first?) 8 teams and a finishing table
8 Minions
Best rider: Reis
Other scorers: Van Niekerk, Kamberaj, Bjerg, Kalaba, Rubio, Kipkemboi, Jiang, Cepeda Hernandez
Rafael Reis signed as the main leader and star of the team and I believe he should deliver for the second year in a row. Reis used to be an underperforming leader, but with the games going more towards stamina and energy stats and away from acceleration it only helps Reis. He got several good support riders like Rubio (a rider I like a lot), Vosekalns and Quintana.
The other main rider on the team is well known as AvN. A strong puncheur who loves to attack. I would've wished for a bit better stamina but he should be a good rider for the yellow menace this season. Kipkemboi and and Cepeda Hernandez are great support riders and good riders when AvN can't race.
Kamberaj and Kalaba are two sprinters who should do well. I really like Kalaba with his prl ability. Strong prologue and TT is noticiable in this squad with Bjerg being the main TTer, another rider I can see having a good year.
In the end I rank Minions just a few spots outside of promotion with a strong year
7 McCormick Pro Cycling
Best rider: Sosa
Other scorers: Yates, Riabushenko, Daniel, Cabrera, Kuss, Godon, Osorio, Narvaez, Zhao
McCormick is first and foremost a strong climbing squad both with leaders and depth.
Sosa and Yates are the big headlines. Great riders with good main stats and strong energy stats. I can see both of them scoring really well. After them the main focus is the climbing depth together with a TT train. Cabrera helps on both, while Kuss, Osorio, Hoehn and Revard are more climbers. Daniel, Eekhoff, Mostov and Wolf should be essantial parts of a strong TTT team.
If we think that Sosa wont ride many hilly classics Narvaez and Godon could end up being the main puncheurs of the team and they are 2 steps down from the best in the division, could still get some nice results though. Eekhoff is the main cobbler, and while I like his value, his backup stats and his TT he is not among the top cobblers. Still at 55k he will overperform that wage by a lot! Riabushenko is another rider a bit behind the top riders of his type, but a strong flat and a nice leadout rider in Zhao should help.
I see this as a good season from McCormick and another team that should figt for promotion but just ends up a bit short
6 Spark Team NZ
Best rider: Coquard
Other scorers: Rodriguez, Kelderman, Bennett, Edmondsonx2, Power, Aferwerki
Barely promoted but I really rate what they have done, still I place them right outside direct promotion this year.
Keeping Rodriguez and Bennett was no suprise and both should score some good points this season while Rodriguez develop into the monster he will be from next year. Coquard while declining is still one of the best sprinters of the game and if he is planned well should be the top scorer for Spark.
Kelderman is great value at 90k, he might dissapoint but if he dosen't (and I believe PCM24 will help him) he should be extremely important for the team. Edmondson is a good cobble rider when you consider his sprint, he just needs to surive, and riders like Power, Edomndson (the other one), Lemus Davila and Duyvesteyn should be good supportriders. Coquard also got a good sprint train with riders like Edmondson, Afewerki and Mudgway. Howson and Marryatt are good TTers, but lack some support stats and the depth behind them aint great for TTT.
This is a team I feel my points system might rank a bit too high just looking at it. Riders like Coquard and Kelderman might score less than I expect and thus send them down the table. Still right here and now, before any races I rank them 6th.
5 Specialized
Best rider: Kasperkiewicz
Other scorers: Inkelaar, Quita, Kennet, Van Poppel, Barguil, Battistella, Baroncini, Milan, Potocki, De Vos, Sulimov
First team I predict on direct promotion and we get to Specialized.
The big guy on the Canadian team is Kasper, one of the greatest cobble riders in the world. He is the kind of rider that needs to attack before the finish but his backup stats should help him with that. Sulimov, Kumara and GvK offers him a lot of support. After Kasper the duch climber Inkelaar is the big name on the team, and great value in my opinion at 140k. A strong rider with good backup stats that together with Barguil and the good climbing depth with Battistella, Potocki and De Vos should help Specialized get the points they need behind Kasper.
Quita is the main puncheur of the team. A rider who both can sprint at the end of the races and handle the longer climbs. I like Quita a lot. Danny Van Poppel might look like the best sprinter on the team, but with his flat stat and better prl I rate Kennet higher, together they make a good sprinting pair that they can send to most of the flat stages they want.
I believe the climing depth and main leaders if just enought to secure Specialized promotion.
4 DK Žalgiris
Best rider: Lutsenko
Other scorers: Kmieliauskas, Lasinis, Beniusis, Tediashvili, Nommela, Roman, Januskevicius, Nareklishvili
In 4th place I place the team with rider names I both hate to write and prounouce.
One of the easier ones is the teams ageing puncheur star Lutsenko. A strong rider even in his decline and still got the (joint) highest hill stat in the division. Riders like Robov, Janusekvicius and Olesen should offer great support for him and I expect at least one more great season from Alexey.
Lasinis is a good climber who just lacks a bit to be among the top of the division, still a rider who together with Roman and Crncevic. Tediashvili and Nareklishvili forms a good cobble duo. I like them both for their "extra" stats that should help them trough the year and to secure points. Nommela is also a good sprinter who should do a job on cobbles while not being among the best.
Then comes the part of the team that I guess the manager is most proud about, the TT duo Kmieliauskas and Beniusis. Beniusis were toted around during transfers at a high price with no bite but should be a good rider for Zalgiris this season. Kmieliuaskas is maxed and comes with good climbing for such a good TTer. Should be a great scorer for Zalgiris in a season I believe will end with promotion to PT
3 Hunter Valley Cycling
Best rider: Shikai
Other scorers: Gaday, Conci, Jakobsen, Thijssen, Storer, Cosnefroy, Soler, Hesters, Miquel, Hamilton
Relegated from PT last year and I see them going straight up again.
Chikai and Conci are good GC riders who both can climb and TT. Shikai the better climber and Conci the better timetrialist. I believe they will do well this season and secure a lot of points. There are some great support riders here with a very strong TTT squad and climbers like Soler and Hamilton.
Gaday is a cobble riders I rank highly based on his awesome ability over hills, which there use to be quite a lot of in cobble classics. He also got a nice sprint to finish off races. Talking about sprints the sprinting pair of Jakobsen and Thijssen looks very strong, and Hester looks like one of the best leadout riders in the division. The main puncheur of the team, Storer, lacks a bit of stamina and resistence in my eyes but other than that there are an abundance of energy riders and nearly all of the TTers are also good on other terrains or as rolours. Consenfroy is the type of TT rider that usually scores well and should have a good season.
I see a new PT season for this team, finishing 3rd
2 Assa Abloy
Best rider: Dainese
Other scorers: Wisniowski, Gesbert, Johannessen, Morin, O'Connor, Rickaert, Boswell, Abdul Halil, Hänninen
Most of the teams have strong climbers as their main leaders but Assa Abloy goes against that. Not that Johannessen and O'Connor are not good riders, they are, but there are riders on this team that I believe will score much better than them.
Dainese is the first rider I would like to mention, and I rank him as the 2nd best sprinter in PCT. He got strong backup and energy stats and should end up scoring a lot of points for Assa Abloy. Abdul Halil can ride races Dainese can't go to and riders like Rickaert and Coutinho are good leadout riders.
Wisniowski, even while in decline, is one of the best cobble riders in the world. His flat will help a lot but I am a bit concerned about his stamina and resistence. Still a great rider! Gesbert on the other hand got all the energy stats you can wish for, and several good domestiques in Morin, Boswell and Hänninen.
I believe the leaders and good support riders will be enough for Assa Abloy to end 2nd and go back up to PT
1 MOL Cycling Team
Best rider: Almeida
Other scorers: Ewan, Benoot, Ardila, Brozyna, Scotson
Who needs depth when my predictions say that their top 5 riders will get enough points to win the division? I rate (specially the top 4 here) so highly that the difference between 1st and 2nd is bigger than the difference between 5th (Specialized) and 17th (Bralirwa).
Almeida is the best rider in the division and should win the individual standings. He is the best climber, got great energy stats and survivable hill and TT. He should win every stage race he shows up for. Caleb Ewan I rank as the best sprinter in the division, and with Baterdene, Stash and Stewart he has a train aswell. I have him ending up 3rd on the individual ranking. Benoot promoted last year, but decided to take another year in PCT and secure another promotion. I have him as the 4th ranked puncheur and he should score well again this year. Le Gac is his closest support rider and the team looks lacks depth here.
Ardila is the rider that I believe can dissapoint this year. He is great on the climbs, but his energy stats is kind of trash. Still his climbing and hilly ability will make him score. I believe Benoot is the strongest cobble rider on the squad, but unsure how much he races in those races, then they will have to rely on Moricz and Scotson. Good riders but not top riders. Scotson offers some TTing and prl that should give him some extra points over the season.
Borzyna is a climber that most likely will lead when Almeida or Ardila can't race. An okay rider, and together with Rhim and Carretero Millan can pick up some extra points for the team.
This is one of the teams with the least depth in the entire division, still I set them as the clear strongest team and winning the division!
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That concludes PCT. As you can understand a bit from what I wrote about MOL the division looks very tight for me. Simba Cement (last relegation spot) I have ranked just 200 pts from Zwift in 13th. I have a clear winner (MOL) and a clear last place (DeNA) and those I am pretty sure about, I also have some difference between 2nd and 3rd and 4th and 5th, then it becomes very tight. Will be very interesting to see how far off I've been when the season is over. In general I see PCT as the hardest division to predict and planning ability is not part of how I've done this, that might throw everything upside down
For a moment you had me believing us to top10 the division, but then I read the "totally wrong" part of the title and got a little more grounded
Very interesting read. I believe your top5 shouldn't be too far from the outcome, but the middle of the division should be a massive battleground and particularly hard to predict. I feel the same at the bottom. DeNa should be relegating, but can't quite understand who should be in a pickle with them. As to us I'd be very happy if we were to finish higher than 15th.
6th would be great! But I think I would need all riders to score well and even then I don't know if 6th is on the cards. Still nice to be predicted high up!
7th probably on the upper end of the range for us, would be very happy with that. But as many have noted the middle of the division is messy. So 7th could easily be 17th with slightly worse outcomes.
Wondered what happened to Amezawa in the climber ranking, Sosa and Novak are 5th and 6th and they are very similar riders.
If you think MM stat will help more one dimensional puncheurs, by the same logic does it hurt more one dimensional climbers, who will now have move climbing time on a weaker stat?
Definitely pleased to see strong faith in our set-up to finish 3rd. Looking forward to this season. Need a stronger season than last from Shikai while Conci should be strong too. I like your faith in Gaday and I too think he could have a great season. Storer is a bit hit and miss with energy stats but fingers crossed he breaks the mould.
Thanks for the previews and the in-depth on each team
7th probably on the upper end of the range for us, would be very happy with that. But as many have noted the middle of the division is messy. So 7th could easily be 17th with slightly worse outcomes.
Wondered what happened to Amezawa in the climber ranking, Sosa and Novak are 5th and 6th and they are very similar riders.
If you think MM stat will help more one dimensional puncheurs, by the same logic does it hurt more one dimensional climbers, who will now have move climbing time on a weaker stat?
I have to be honest that for MM on climbers I haven't seen any results one or another way, like we have seen it helping puncheurs, so I haven't considered it a lot but rather just looked at it with half an eye
Looking at Amezawa the points score I put for climbers around that level are close together, so all the way down to Ranawera/Inkelaar (who I have behind Amezawa) it is tight and kind of random from when I gave them points and when I hit sort, so there are riders right outside lists on same point score as riders on the list.
DeNA Roadstars
IESE ProCycling Team
Lotto-Caloi
Colombini Kometa
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
Tryg - Eni
Bralirwa - Cegeka
JEWA TIROL
Bolt - Eesti
Zwift - Newton Foundation
Trans Looney Tunes
Ekoi - Le Creuset
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Everesting
Spark Team NZ
Specialized
DK Žalgiris
Assa Abloy
MOL Cycling Team
