The trip to South America brings us a 6-stage fight between the some of the best in the game. 2 sprint stages and 4 high mountain stages will test the best in the world alongside those from the PCT. Stages 3, 5, and 6 all provide mountain top finishes which could really divide the field here and suggest that the best in the field will come out on top. With only two major stage types here, it’s a simple preview to find the best in the field.
History
The 2023 victor here is none other than Lecuisinier… and he’s back for 2024! Seeing that, none of the other previous winners is willing to attend this year. Lecuisinier will be aiming to be the 3rd multi-time winner as Pluchkin (2-time 2019, 2018) and Amador (2-time 2017, 2013).
From a stage perspective, the race is currently in a shortened format since beginning as a 15-stage race in 2008. 2017 was the shortest race at only 5 stages, but 6 has become the norm since 2018.
Sprinters
Name
FL
ST
RS
RC
SP
AC
Jasper Philipsen
74
74
70
80
81
80
Danny Van Poppel
72
74
71
78
81
78
Itamar Einhorn
74
71
71
74
80
78
Elias Afewerki
73
77
70
81
79
80
Alvaro Hodeg
72
69
74
70
79
78
Maximilian Walscheid
73
71
74
73
79
79
Marco Haller
71
70
69
74
79
77
Lionel Coutinho
72
75
74
77
79
80
Roman Lutsyshyn
70
69
73
74
79
80
Barnabas Peak
80
73
77
77
78
78
Max Losch
73
72
68
75
78
79
Aksel Nommela
72
70
70
72
78
78
Bas Van der Kooij
73
75
74
83
78
77
Emerson Santos
75
69
70
74
77
76
Hugo Forssell
69
69
74
75
77
77
Jaume Sureda
73
71
69
75
77
79
Enzo Wouters
75
73
75
83
77
79
With two clear sprint stages, there’s some solid competition here to contest the flat finishes. Philipsen looks like he should be the major favorite with Van Poppel finding himself in the 2nd favorite position. Both will be looking for a slower sprint with the hope that they can jump to the finish with less than a km to go. Van der Kooij is ready to lead out Van Poppel, but Philipsen comes without a major leadout.
Einhorn has found a stage win or two this season already as well and could find himself atop a podium in South America. Alongside Einhorn, the 3rd tier has lots of options from Haller to Coutinho and Hodeg. All three have shown promise this year, but it’s no better than a guess on who will get the better chance in Colombia.
GC/Climbers
Name
FL
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
SP
AC
DH
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier
71
85
75
78
80
79
67
74
70
Taylor Phinney
71
83
75
74
71
73
70
72
69
Joseph Dombrowski
69
83
74
79
77
77
59
74
71
Mark Padun
67
82
77
72
74
76
60
75
70
Rafael Reis
70
81
73
78
76
78
50
64
68
Hugh Carthy
71
81
75
77
76
78
60
69
65
Pierre Latour
69
81
75
80
78
80
65
74
73
Daan Olivier
72
81
76
76
80
77
64
71
71
Andres Camilo Ardila
66
81
80
69
70
74
62
75
66
Domen Novak
68
80
77
74
76
77
66
76
75
Suranga Ranaweera
67
80
73
75
75
74
58
65
69
Bartosz Warchol
70
80
74
76
77
73
61
70
68
Justo Tenorio
64
80
72
72
70
73
55
61
64
Nairo Quintana
66
80
72
74
73
73
50
63
59
Adam Yates
71
80
76
79
80
76
67
76
71
Jan Hirt
69
80
73
76
78
78
64
75
66
Kevin Inkelaar
64
80
70
75
76
79
60
74
69
Warren Barguil
69
80
74
76
76
80
63
74
75
Well it is no surprise that Lecuisinier is the top favorite for the race, as he is almost any time he races. He won 2 stages last year, the GC, and the points for a huge result. Without a TT, there really is no one who should be able to compete against him at the highest level.
Phinney and Dombrowski are clearly in the next level of competitors here with Phinney having already found much success so far this season. Both have stellar palmares of their own and would be clear favorites in any scenario with the Frenchman. Dombrowski should be looking at stage 2 as an opportunity to gain more time over Phinnery, who might be slightly less prepared for a long mountain stage compared to the unipuerto finish on Stage 6.
Lots of others will be looking to fill the rest of the top 10, although it would be a surprise for anyone to jump into the top 3. Padun is great on the pure climbs, while Ardila can handle the smaller hills ahead of the climbs better than anyone. Latour is ready for the longer stages and might be able to hold onto the best just a tad longer than his peers in this 3rd tier. Reis, Carthy, and Olivier will also be backing themselves as an opportunity to win as well. Stage wins could all be possible here if Lecuisinier decides not to go alone to the finish on a stage.
Olivier's first outing and I'm glad I didn't pick a Top 5 goal for this race! The startlist is quite closely packed behind the top 3, and we just hope to be on the right end of the results on the mountains. The support team is strong enough, so that should not be an issue. We didn't bring any competitors for the flats, so maybe a couple of opportunities for the breaks for us there.
When decided against a GT with Phinney, those here were the 6 remaining and least ideal rd for him as I lacked the PTHC TT events.
Seeing the startlist it could still become a very decent race as ideally he can reach the podium and likely behind Lecuisinier (easy win I guess) for sure and Dombrowski as stronger climber.
The small daily form might be key for all those mountains but on normal days Phinney should be able to stay ahead of the others really. Carthy, Latour and Olivier likely still the strongest.
Cool to see Olivier also up there for the top5 fight. Cheering for him as long as he is behind Phinney.
Support wise unfortunately not the very best here as usually it`s Cras as main support. But Schelling is just a little weaker plus Denz and Lipowitz are with him, which makes it 3 decent climbers plus some puncheurs for the early sections.
Vuelta a Colombia 
