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[CT] Simba Cement – Tanga Fresh
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 17-09-2024 11:38
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Classics Specialist
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Kozhatayev will indeed not have it easy in this years CT GC competition, but I believe Nikiema can do very well in the hilly races. Schomber is also a very fun rider for both C2, C1 and even HC prologues, and Zariff and Page could net you some nice sprinting points, as long as Zariff is better planned and surrounded than last season I guess. Kulindwa is a fun regional talent, although I would have expected some interest in the two nice Kenyan talents as well 
Seboka in theory doesn't do much, but it has to be said he was an 'amazing' FA signing for us in our first season. Scored around 50 points I think (it's something  ), and won stage 3 and points in Trentinto as well as the KoM in Andorra
The streets will never forget his epic win in Trentino. I hope he does sth similar for you.
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| Caspi |
Posted on 17-09-2024 13:11
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Neo-Pro
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@Nemolito
I'm not sure how well I've planned Zariff, but he should have plenty of support in most races.
I would have liked a few more prologues for Schomber, but he will get to ride all of the races we participate in where there is one. Excited to see how many wins he can take.
I had both Kipruto and Moiruri on my radar, but it wasn't to be this window. Hopefully they will join our ranks at some point of their career
50 points would be awesome from Seboka! He's more than welcome to hunt KoM in Andorra again this season.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 18-09-2024 01:36
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3202
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Love to see Granigan playing the leadout role, that was what I had in mind when I developed him. Although maybe more as a first lead out than last man role he plays for you. Not a lot of other support there so he is going to have some work to do. Fingers crossed it works out.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Caspi |
Posted on 18-09-2024 09:24
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 334
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@Ulrich Ulriksen
Granigan has a lot of work ahead of him in TOME, but for most of the races during the season Zariff should have sufficient support.
Initially I planned different schedules for Zariff and Page, but I ended up sending them to a lot of the same races. Barbari will also work as lead out man throughout the season.
For many of the flat races Mundle will be there to chase breakaways as well, and once or twice Nikiema might even be a part of the roster.
Time will tell if Zariff performs under these conditions
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 16-10-2024 01:29
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| Caspi |
Posted on 18-09-2024 09:49
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Neo-Pro
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Time to present the roster for our final two goal races.
I haven't looked at the competition yet, but it's probably going to be very difficult. Carpenter is our designated captain, but maybe Seboka or Manfredi gets to join a breakaway on the final stage if enough time is lost on the more hilly second stage?
Laas, Aru and Liphongyu are there to support the beforementioned riders, and Moutsios and De Comarmond are once again mainly here to gain experience.
This goal is - like TOME - pretty much impossible. Hopefully Kozhatayev has a small chance due to the time trial on the final stage.
Carpenter, Seboka, Manfredi and Aru are mainly here to provide support when the road goes up.
Smit, Barbari and Kiflay are also here to support, but could get the opportunity to chase a stage each. None of them should be favorites, but there might be less competition in their areas of expertise which could enable one of them to secure some kind of result. |
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| Caspi |
Posted on 25-09-2024 10:36
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 334
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Goals - summary
Last year we were aiming to achieve two out of five goals, but the sponsors had to settle with one at the end of the season.
This year the goals are tougher, but the team should also be stronger. Representatives from Simba Cement & Tanga Fresh has promised me that they will be satisfied if we can achieve one out of five goals. Therefore, I have analyzed our chances, and this is my conclusion:
| Coppa Placci | Top-5 | 30 % | | Tour of the Middle East | Win | 1 % | | Tour of Eritrea | Top-10 | 10 % | | Int. Osterreich Rundfahrt | Win | 1 % | | Team Standings | Top-5 | 40 % |
According to my calculations, the percentages above should leave us with approximately 60 % chance of completing at least one goal, 15 % chance of completing two or more goals, and less than 5 % chance of completing at least three goals.
Spoiler Okay, okay. Copilot may have been used to calculate the probabilities.
And the calculations are based on my estimation, so this could be far from reality. However, now there's something to evaluate on after the season, which is always fun 
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| Caspi |
Posted on 27-09-2024 14:13
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 334
Joined: 22-09-2022
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Battle for promotion
Inspired by Laurens we've estimated how well our riders will score in the coming season. The 2023 points are taken from across divisions so I think it should be taken lightly.
| Name | 2023 points | Expected points | | Zariff | 37 | 200 | | Kozhatayev | 124 | 100 | | Schomber | 170 | 150 |
Our leaders should have plenty of opportunities to score. Schomber is the strongest prologue specialist in CT, and Zariff should be one of the strongest sprinters with decent support. Kozhatayev on the other hand probably won't be a favorite for any race this season due to the strong competition. However, he should also have decent support in most races which should enable him to score some points.
I expect 100-200 points from our leaders.
| Name | 2023 points | Expected points | | Page | 87 | 100 | | Carpenter | 125 | 100 | | Dennis | 115 | 55 | | Nikiema | 33 | 65 |
Page and Carpenter are both strong riders. They shouldn't be top-favorites for any races, but could score well as they will get a few chances as captains themselves. Dennis scored over 100 points last season, and can hopefully score half of that despite his decline. Nikiema will have many opportunities for us this season, and I'm quite certain he will get above 50 points - fingers crossed.
I expect 50-100 points from these guys.
| Name | 2023 points | Expected points | | Barbari | 57 | 50 | | Kiflay | 66 | 30 | | Manfredi | 76 | 50 | | Laas | 39 | 50 |
Barbari won't have many opportunities for himself, but his strong acceleration could net him some points, when he finally does get a chance. Kiflay has declined, but I still expect a few points from TT's from him. Manfredi did well for us last season and he could make some suprises, if he gets to join the right breakaways. Lastly, we have Laas who should reach the finish line within the points in the hilly races where Nikiema isn't strong enough and Carpenter is elsewhere.
25-50 points is acceptable with this limited level of freedom.
| Name | 2023 points | Expected points | | Seboka | 5 | 25 | | Smit | 72 | 50 | | Liphongyu | 32 | 15 | | Granigan | 35 | 30 | | Moutsios | 7 | 5 | | Comarmond | - | 5 | | Iradukunda | 0 | 0 | | Aru | 44 | 10 | | Mundle | 111 | 50 |
I don't expect much from the domestiques. 5-50 points is the expected range.
Mundle should score a few points, but 50 might be a bit high expectations as he'll ride alot with Zariff. Smit should also have a tough time considering our team composition. Seboka could improve his scoring if the circumstances are right, but time will tell. Liphongyu and Granigan will ride as domestiques all season which will hinder their ability to score points. Same goes for Moutsios, Comarmond, Aru and Iradukunda (stagiare), where I expect even less on an individual level.
Conclusion: the above means we should receive around 1135 points in total. Last season that would have been enough for 8th place, but both 5th and 9th place within 100 points.
I'm sure the estimates are way off the final result, but will it be enough for promotion? |
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| seancoll |
Posted on 27-09-2024 16:01
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Domestique
Posts: 430
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I think your predictions and goals look pretty much correct odds wise. Scheduling matters a ton, but I think Nikiema will be your most likely to overperform - I'd be surprised if he doesn't go over 100. Dennis too in the right races could eclipse your prediction rather easily.
For the goals, I know how much you'd want to take one of those win goals home, but I just don't see a way. I think Tour of Eritrea could go your way and Coppa Placci should fit you all as well.
Overall, I think you improved roster set-up this season and excited to see how your team rides in 2024.
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| Caspi |
Posted on 29-09-2024 09:48
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 334
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@seancoll
Planning isn’t my strong suit, unfortunately. I would love to see Nikiema score 100+ points! Dennis will have a harder time overperforming my estimate, I think, as Schomber will probably take priority in most races with a prologue, and Dennis' other stats aren’t good enough for top results. Plus, your guys will also affect his scoring, I suppose
I agree with your assessment of my goals and improved roster. However, it seems like the quality of the division has improved overall.
It will be an exciting season for the both of us!
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| Caspi |
Posted on 29-09-2024 16:23
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 334
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Time to present our roster for the first races of the season.
Like in out inaugural season, we'll kick it off in New Zealand.
Nikiema should be our captain, but Laas might see an opportunity to chase a result if the hills become too tough. Smit could also receive some freedom as he has good endurance and a fighting spirit.
The rest are here mainly for support, but that could change depending on the circumstances.
We send almost the same team Down Under where we don't have high expectations. Granigan will join the team to provide some kind of fire power in the sprints, but Nikiema should be our clear leader here. Mundle might also take a chance or two to attack in the final kilometers in the stages that suit him.
This will be the only race during the season where we only send 6 guys. It's due to the clash with Tour Down Under, but that doesn't mean that we don't aim for the win.
Both Page and Barbari are here to deliver Zariff in the sprint. Hopefully, Schomber, Moutsios and Kiflay are capable of keeping a breakaway in check. |
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 30-09-2024 09:56
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Protected Rider
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Already some races to look forward to with Nikiema in Gisborne and Zariff in Nakhon Also we'll meet in TDU.
Good luck!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
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| Caspi |
Posted on 30-09-2024 16:22
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 334
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Laurens147 wrote:
Already some races to look forward to with Nikiema in Gisborne and Zariff in Nakhon Also we'll meet in TDU.
Good luck!
Yeah, I think a top-10 in Gisborne and a top-3 in Nakhon would make the races a success for us.
Looking forward to battling against you in TDU! Best of luck to you as well, though I have to admit, your chances with Calmejean look better than our chances
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| Caspi |
Posted on 15-10-2024 10:09
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 334
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Let's have a look at the next couple of races.
One of the most important non-goal races on our calendar this year. Kozhatayev is our leader and will receive strong support from Seboka, Manfredi, Aru, and Carpenter in particular. Dennis and Kiflay might be able to score some points on the final stage, but are of course also mainly here as domestiques. That leaves only Page who will get to ride his own chance on the flat stages. We haven't bought a lead out but hope he will be able to achieve some decent results nonetheless.
Another chance for our hill squad to show their worth. The final kilometers look good for our guys, but it's a tough parkour all in all, so our expectations aren't very high.
Let's also have a look at Catalunya. As our roster for Coppa Placci and TOME has already been presented, it will be quite a while before our next presentation. Maybe we will find the time to look back at some of the January races in the meantime.
Our squad is built around the TTT, which means no sprinter and limited support in the mountains for Kozhatayev. Consequently, we are relying on GC points or some surprises from the domestiques. Perhaps someone Smit can do some magic in the begging of the race, or Carpenter can receive some freedom on the penultimate stage. |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 15-10-2024 22:59
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4566
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Nice to see Page getting some freedom in Tachira, hopefully he'll get you some nice results there
I didn't really look a lot at PCT/CT teams this year, so rather surprised to find out that you have a really decent TTT lineup this year, should be pretty good in Catalunya! Kozhatayev surely can't keep up with the top climbers, but a Top 10 or maybe even a Top 5 could be on the cards.
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