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Tour Down Under - Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 14-10-2024 11:05
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The Tour Down Under has a long, long history in the MG since 2008 and always was a race of mixed favourites. Roleurs, sprinters, puncheurs, punchy sprinters, they all performed well here no matter the exact race route. In the mid 2010`s the puncheurs slowly took over with the Willunga Hill hill top finish, but it was still possible to hang on for stronger sprinters and in 2019 it changed again towards the sprinters and punchier riders.
Last year the route changed again with the iconic Willunga Hill Top finish being changed and in fact made harder, at least from a first look. It`s not 2 sprinter stages, 2 puncheur stages and 2 stages in between. So still a lot of chances for all kind of riders to show up.
The reigning champion is Arnaud Demare, who took it via bonus seconds in a close and thrilling 1s decision against surprise Peter Varga and then already ahead of pure sprinters in Haller and Vesely, which shows the versatility of this race.
Due to this unfortunately the number of riders in the top spots is very limited in comparison to the riders being potential winners at the start stat wise and so the amount of top level outside the top10 is rather high for a C1 event.
Turning towards 2024 and it`s nice to see the two latest champions at the start and they surely hope for a repeat.
 McCarthy, winner of 2022, is the strongest puncheur in the race and the home crowd`s favourite. He stopped a long period of non Aussie wins since the 2012 success of Allan Davis. The other is  Demare, who combines the needed skills as much as no other. One of the favourites in the sprints and also one of the better puncheurs, so basically making him a potential stage winner on all 6 stages.
Puncheurs
| Hi | Sp | | Hi | Sp | | McCarthy | 82 | 65 |  Bagioli | 79 | 71 |  Kinoshita | 82 | 67 |  Edmondson | 79 | 70 |  Sagan | 81 | 71 |  Turgis | 79 | 70 |  Kelderman | 81 | 66 | Borges | 79 | 70 |  Moscon | 80 | 60 | Demare | 79 | 81 |  Müller | 80 | 66 |  Tesfatsion | 78 | 69 | | Waeytens | 79 | 65 |  Lagane | 78 | 76 |  Jensen | 79 | 65 |  Yates | 78 | 62 |  Boswell | 79 | 64 | | | |
Next to McCarthy we also have to watch Kinoshita. He might had his first decline recently but he is still one of the very best in this division and decline is kind of a thing for top puncheurs these days as same goes for the next two in Sagan and Kelderman and in fact for quite a few others on that list. With Müller (28) and Bagioli (25) we might have two riders for the future seeing them as only mid 20`s in that 78+ range.
Sprinters
| Sp | Acc | Hi | | Sp | Acc | Hi | | Demare | 81 | 80 | 79 | Van Asbroeck | 78 | 75 | 69 | | Ahlstrand | 81 | 79 | 65 | Contreras | 78 | 80 | 68 | | Kamberaj | 79 | 78 | 69 |  Degenkolb | 78 | 72 | 63 | | Adomaitis | 79 | 78 | 67 |  Kennaugh | 78 | 75 | 61 |  Coutinho | 79 | 80 | 65 | Feiereisen | 77 | 78 | 68 | | Perera | 79 | 80 | 64 | Kiskonen | 77 | 77 | 68 | | Walscheid | 79 | 79 | 63 |  Wouters | 77 | 79 | 68 |  Lutsyshyn | 79 | 80 | 54 | Pedersen | 77 | 77 | 67 |  El Sabbahi | 78 | 77 | 69 | | | | |
Demare was mentioned already but next to him it`s veteran Ahlstrand being one of the top stars here. At age 34 he still has it and while his hill play is likely not the very best, the sprinter stages should suit him. Kamberaj and Adomaitis have some of the best engines here and can`t be overlooked while in general the top10 is really, really close and should see some interesting battles.
Riders to watch
| Fl | Hi | Sp | | Fl | Hi | Sp |  Mundle | 78 | 64 | 58 | Tarvis | 76 | 74 | 64 | | El Sabbahi | 77 | 69 | 78 | Gabburo | 75 | 76 | 72 | | Dzamastagic | 77 | 69 | 75 | Lagane | 70 | 78 | 76 | | Sagiv | 77 | 73 | 72 | Calmejane | 74 | 77 | 72 | | Varga | 77 | 66 | 65 | Paez | 73 | 77 | 73 | | Yzeiraj | 77 | 66 | 62 | Gladysh | 72 | 77 | 71 |
Hard to say really as it`s a big gamble to guess, who might overperform. But from last years experience with Varga, he has to be named again and then all those similar riders as well, in especially Sagiv, who combines it with even better puncheur skills. Allrounder wise the final 5 are worth mentioned with Gabburo and Lagane looking like ideal riders for this race just like the others of course. But the chance to get bonus seconds on all stages here could be a way to climb up the GC ladder.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 14-10-2024 11:31
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World Champion
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Skipping this one, but we'll be here in spirit with the Moscon/Waeytens combo.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 15:47
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 14-10-2024 11:34
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Classics Specialist
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We have close to 0 expectations in terms of GC here, hopefully Dzama can keep up at times and if a break sticks we have some of the best breakaway riders here with everyone that aren't Dzama or Coutinho, who I hope will keep up his good start to the season!
Thanks for the preview, looking forward to even more racing!
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 14-10-2024 11:49
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Sprinter
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We're relying on Muller to perform well in his races as leader, which he did not do at all last season. Hoping for a top-10 from him and Perera to get decent sprint results (still not sure what to expect from him yet). Thanks for the preview, roturn!
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 14-10-2024 11:53
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Should be a good race was really unsure what the best combo here was considering last year the race got very messy on stages 2,4,5 but Moscon finished 7th overall so we went with him again here Stage 5 will be critical and there's chances for the right sprinters to fare well |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 14-10-2024 13:03
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Team Leader
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Yates here to lead the team. Not sure if we will be able to get much here. Still any small points will be nice as our main points will come later on.
Good luck everyone!
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 14-10-2024 14:48
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Directeur Sportif
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Big test for Narvaez here, is his sprint good enough for him to get some attention in on the hilly stages in this field? No sprinter and no second leader so it is all on him. If it goes well then maybe a decent GC placing is possible, if it doesn't we will all ride along at the back and get dropped.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 14-10-2024 15:05
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Small Tour Specialist
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A first test for both Sagan and Adomaitis. Certainly an opportunity for some points for Sagan due to being one of best sprinters out of punchers
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 14-10-2024 16:12
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Thanks roturn for the preview 
I hope Wouters and Calmejane can pick up some points for us. A lot of competition in both domains at first glance.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 14-10-2024 18:38
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Grand Tour Champion
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Wondering if the Kinoshita - Ahlstrand combo will work here. First test for the former too see if my traditional hills hate can be put aside for this season.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 14-10-2024 18:59
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
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Throw back to the 2021 edition where Croes was 2nd up Willlunga Hill and Mayer won the U25 jersey. Mayer is not here, but maybe Croes can produce another shock?
No idea what Lagane will do in this field. But had to send him in one of the ideal races for the HL/SP hybrids. Benefit of knowing we'll relegate, even he does nothing we've lost nothing. All that happen is a positive surprise!
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 14-10-2024 21:39
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Grand Tour Specialist
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I does not feel good participating in one of the most unpredictable races on the calendar again - it has been a nice, relaxing few years without the tdu
Unfortunately, the race can really suit Bagioli's skillset depending on how each stage is raced. If it's hard racing with a small-ish lead group coming to the line, he could do really well with his acc + sp, otherwise I fear it'll be another edition with a strange mix of puncheurs/roulers/sprinters/whatever all over the place. No Ackermann here is also very interesting, as I think he'd have been perfect for the parcours. Lagane should be a sleeper for the GC along with Demare also.
Thanks for the preview! Looking forward to our first race of the season
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 14-10-2024 22:03
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Was tempted to have astannard the season at home, but ultimately decided against it. Breakaways for us please.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 15-10-2024 07:00
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Bagioli 100th+ is not looking good positioning wise unfortunately - hopefully that changes, but this could be a wast of 6 RD.
Congrats D2B! Strong win. Demare disappointing, and Lagane setting himself up for a good race. Thanks for the report roturn!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 15-10-2024 07:32
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Bit shocked to end up with a 2nd place but Mudgway just did an excellent job at surfing the right wheels, which gives me confidence he can continue that moving forward in races he sprints for himself.
Good start at the TDU and one of our regional races. Hopefully we can continue that and maybe even get 1 place better!
Congrats the winner and great report!
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 15-10-2024 09:15
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Classics Specialist
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A little sad that Coutinho fades to third again for the second race in a row but still better than not scoring at all. Nice to see the lead-out putting him into a good position to take advantage of the chaos from Jacobs. Thanks for the report and congrats to D2B and Jakstar on first and second!
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| Caspi |
Posted on 15-10-2024 09:32
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Jakstar22 wrote:
Bit shocked to end up with a 2nd place but Mudgway just did an excellent job at surfing the right wheels, which gives me confidence he can continue that moving forward in races he sprints for himself.
Very impressive. Enjoy the success
I'm also very happy with Mundle's presence in BOTD. I hope to see him chasing KOM now.
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| MacC |
Posted on 15-10-2024 09:54
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
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Thanks for the preview and first report!
Goal for Glanbia here is for Boswell to stay with the leaders on the hills and get a decent GC. Anything else is a bonus
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 15-10-2024 10:07
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Not a good start for us, Christen as a LVL1 loanee is our first man in the results column. Hopefully we can turn it around in the next stages!
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 15-10-2024 13:12
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Tour de France Champion
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Lagane seems up for this one
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
