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2024 Lazy Predictions
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 26-09-2024 12:52
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Classics Specialist
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Thank you! We are always glad to be popular among European fans!
But indeed, our predicted places differ from 5th to 21st so don't know what to expect now  I can't see us finishing fifth, but I do hope we're above the relegation line. Unless bad luck strikes, it should be possible to survive I think.
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| seancoll |
Posted on 04-10-2024 05:12
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Domestique
Posts: 481
Joined: 20-12-2022
PCM$: 500.00
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might get to a PT preview in the upcoming days, who knows - but will start doing some minor tabulations of all the rankings for CT in the upcoming days as well to combine.
Am sure many folks would be happy to see a few more predictions come in.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 04-10-2024 16:31
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1147
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We'll happily take 17th place, so just skip to the next off-season 
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| Caspi |
Posted on 05-10-2024 09:05
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 384
Joined: 22-09-2022
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Another lazy prediction for the CT. I couldn't decide on the actual order, so instead I've divided the teams into four groups/tiers.
The first tier is for the teams where promotion seems sure. The second tier are the ones I expect to see fighting for promotion. The third tier are for the mid-table, where we'll find the last teams within the top 10. Lastly, we have the fourth tier which I see as the teams who should be fighting to avoid last place.
Initially I wanted to put 4-5 teams in each tier, but I only see one clear favorite in the division, and thus it ended up like this:
| #1 | Newton Foundation p/b Zwift |
One team to rule them all.
| Duvel-Tsingtao | | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | See Turtles | | #2 | Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh | | Spark Team NZ | | Team Würth MODYF | | Zain Omantel |
These seven additional teams will be fighting for promotion, I think. They all have strong leaders, and all of them could actually promote depending on disbands.
| Babymetal | | Cervelo Test Team | | #3 | Ethopian Airlines | | Euskadi-Murias | | Trans Looney Tunes |
In the mid-table I find these strong teams, where there's room for surprises. A couple of them could break into top 8, but top 5 would be a small surprise for me.
| Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo | | Euskotren - Pays Basque | | #4 | Genii Hyundai N Cycling | | Glanbia | | Hilcona |
In the bottom of the table, we're going to find one of these teams I'm sure. With fewer expectations, the teams might also see more opportunities though, which could enable a few of them to climb higher.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 09-10-2024 04:22
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Directeur Sportif
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Joined: 02-11-2010
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Here is my PCT algorithm applied to PCT. Again I just assign points to riders and do not consider team or division structure. Because of this ELCO is probably over estimated as they have 26 riders. Even adjusting for that I would still have them number 1 I think. Also, I looked back at last year and I had 4 of 5 promoted and relegated teams right, so I guess there is some logic here.
I thought based on my impressions and other predictions that the range would be tighter this year than last but actually it is pretty similar. This year does have a clear break after 9th, with McCormick in 10th, but not much comfort for me as the gaps back to 16th and even 20th are pretty tight.
| 1 | ELCO - ABEA | 3,855 | | 2 | ISA - Hexacta | 3,471 | | 3 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 3,399 | | 4 | Tryg - Eni | 3,134 | | 5 | Sony - Force India | 3,016 | | 6 | DK Zalgiris | 2,866 | | 7 | Indosat Ooredoo | 2,855 | | 8 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 2,788 | | 9 | Minions | 2,751 | | 10 | McCormick Pro Cycling | 2,443 | | 11 | Specialized | 2,433 | | 12 | Team UBS | 2,411 | | 13 | Lotto-Caloi | 2,319 | | 14 | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | 2,253 | | 15 | Bralirwa - Cegeka | 2,240 | | 16 | Sauber Petronas Racing | 2,214 | | 17 | Manada Coyote | 2,131 | | 18 | Tafjord Kraft | 2,090 | | 19 | Benetton Bimex Cycling | 2,090 | | 20 | Everesting | 1,927 | | 21 | Ekoi - Le Creuset | 1,776 | | 22 | JEWA TIROL | 1,538 | | 23 | Llapi-Vita | 1,435 | | 24 | Podium Ambition | 893 |
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 21-12-2024 17:12
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Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
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| jph27 |
Posted on 09-10-2024 20:17
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Team Leader
Posts: 7340
Joined: 20-03-2010
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knockout wrote:
jph27 wrote:
Used my model for PT scoring with some simple adjustments for RD usage and point distribution to get the numbers below. A retrospective fit using 2023's modelled figures and the same adjustments results in a correlation coefficient of around 0.8, so certainly not a perfect model but hopefully not completely wrong!
| 1 | Evonik - ELKO | 9372 | | 2 | Team Puma - SAP | 8920 | | 3 | Polar | 8396 |
Worth pointing out that the model overrated Evonik, Puma and Lidl the most in the retrospective 2023 look back, and underrated Vesuvio, cycleYorkshire, Carlsberg and MOL in particular. There's a potentially smarter way of doing RD adjustment which may smooth some of that out (a question for any v2), but would not be surprised if it is again the case here.
I'd say that the model once again overrates Evonik and Puma at least. Hard to see a world where 8300 points are only good for third. I would be curious to see how those numbers got this high as the bottom half scoring looks much more realistic to me. Looking at the top teams, maybe it overrates or double counts certain type of stage racers?
Spoiler I know the order and differences are the real interesting talking points but I'm also curious here since the order & other point totals look mostly reasonable here
I would agree with that, it's definitely an effect resulting from the model tending to see the strongest stage racers (Herklotz, Lecuisinier, Bernal) as being top riders on two other terrains as well. Therefore they get inflated projected scores, which in turn makes those three teams look so much stronger.
So that remains a challenge to figure out going forwards - it isn't the most robust method of modelling, but I'm yet to find a better one within my technical capabilities
However, I have re-run the modelling on the basis of terrain/overall ranking. v1 below is more simplistic, and simply ranks the riders on projected scores and ties them to the ranking points of the same slot last season. Adjustments then made based on RD usage etc:
| 1 | Evonik - ELKO | 8415 | | 2 | Polar | 7585 | | 3 | Gazelle | 7385 | | 4 | Xero Racing | 6948 | | 5 | King Power | 6586 | | 6 | Aker - MOT | 6484 | | 7 | Lidl Cycling | 6410 | | 8 | Team Puma - SAP | 6329 | | 9 | Rabobank | 6243 | | 10 | Moser - Sygic | 5859 | | 11 | Tinkoff Team - La Datcha | 5737 | | 12 | ZARA - Irizar | 5599 | | 13 | Assa Abloy | 5533 | | 14 | Grieg-Maersk | 5485 | | 15 | Cedevita | 5187 | | 16 | Jura GIANTS | 5031 | | 17 | cycleYorkshire | 4865 | | 18 | EA Vesuvio | 4858 | | 19 | Oxxo - Frisby | 4747 | | 20 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 4728 | | 21 | Fastned | 4724 | | 22 | MOL Cycling Team | 4421 |
v2 is slightly different, instead ranking riders by terrain and then linking to the corresponding slot in the scoring ranking for each. Same caveats apply as above, and there's an element of subjectivity in here with what is classed as scoring on each terrain. The gap between 5th and 6th suggests some of the same issues as in the original modelling, though it seems a bit more in line with usual scoring patterns:
| 1 | Evonik - ELKO | 8615 | | 2 | Polar | 8297 | | 3 | Xero Racing | 7938 | | 4 | Gazelle | 7936 | | 5 | Team Puma - SAP | 7905 | | 6 | King Power | 6648 | | 7 | Rabobank | 6343 | | 8 | Lidl Cycling | 6223 | | 9 | Tinkoff Team - La Datcha | 5853 | | 10 | Aker - MOT | 5692 | | 11 | Moser - Sygic | 5547 | | 12 | ZARA - Irizar | 5430 | | 13 | Grieg-Maersk | 5328 | | 14 | EA Vesuvio | 5045 | | 15 | Assa Abloy | 4998 | | 16 | Fastned | 4801 | | 17 | Jura GIANTS | 4718 | | 18 | Cedevita | 4688 | | 19 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 4500 | | 20 | cycleYorkshire | 4434 | | 21 | Oxxo - Frisby | 4210 | | 22 | MOL Cycling Team | 4010 |
Overall I think there are still some teams lower than there should be, but hopefully these predictions are a bit closer to reality than the first one. That being said, I keep trying to get an accurate prediction for my team (17th would be a great season) and have had no luck with any of the three methods
If time permits in the next few days I'll try to do the same for PCT and CT using the two methods above! |
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| jaxika |
Posted on 09-10-2024 20:21
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3149
Joined: 16-07-2008
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Two times last. Damn... |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 10-10-2024 09:27
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Team Leader
Posts: 5534
Joined: 12-06-2013
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Liking where we're looking, a mid-table finish would be a great result. We'll have to see whether we can live up to that though!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 10-10-2024 10:50
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9104
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 10-10-2024 11:49
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World Champion
Posts: 11406
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1120.00
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Don’t worry, I was thinking the same thing Some ridiculous predictions of us in here. Luckily it looks like Abhi might be doing something better
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 11-10-2024 10:20
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1139
Joined: 26-04-2020
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PCT prediction
1) Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
2) ELCO - ABEA
3) Sony - Force India
4) ISA - Hexacta
5) Indosat Ooredoo
6) McCormick Pro Cycling
7) Team UBS
8) Tryg - Eni
9) DK Zalgiris
10) Minions
11) Bralirwa - Cegeka
12) Benetton Bimex Cyling
13) Specialized
14) Llapi-Vita
15) Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
16) Kraftwerk Man Machine
17) Everesting
18) Sauber Petronas Racing
19) Ekoi - Le Creuset
20) Lotto-Caloi
21) Tafjord Kraft
22) Manada Coyote
23) JEWA TIROL
24) Podium Ambition
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 11-10-2024 12:41
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World Champion
Posts: 14589
Joined: 08-08-2011
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Et tu, Laurens?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 12-10-2024 16:41
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3301
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Wow, 6th. Llapi-Vita getting some love as well.
Can Lierse defy the aggregate predictions again? Because the aggregate is definitely going to have them going up
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 12-10-2024 20:12
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Team Leader
Posts: 7340
Joined: 20-03-2010
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PCT projection, using a model along the lines of the PT v2 above. Really likes ELCO, and suggests that there are some heavy favourites for promotion/relegation. Lower on Everesting and Popo4Ever than I'd expect, and perhaps a bit higher on Lotto and Tafjord then I'd originally thought:
| 1 | ELCO - ABEA | 4871 | | 2 | Sony - Force India | 4154 | | 3 | ISA - Hexacta | 4121 | | 4 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 3714 | | 5 | Tryg - Eni | 3487 | | 6 | Indosat Ooredoo | 3167 | | 7 | McCormick Pro Cycling | 2947 | | 8 | Lotto-Caloi | 2790 | | 9 | Benetton Bimex Cycling | 2772 | | 10 | Bralirwa - Cegeka | 2720 | | 11 | DK Zalgiris | 2695 | | 12 | Minions | 2513 | | 13 | Specialized | 2498 | | 14 | Sauber Petronas Racing | 2483 | | 15 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 2273 | | 16 | Team UBS | 2240 | | 17 | Tafjord Kraft | 2228 | | 18 | Everesting | 1905 | | 19 | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | 1892 | | 20 | Llapi-Vita | 1833 | | 21 | JEWA TIROL | 1540 | | 22 | Manada Coyote | 1516 | | 23 | Ekoi - Le Creuset | 1476 | | 24 | Podium Ambition | 740 |
Same top 5 and 4 of the same bottom 5 as UU, which makes me wonder how similar our respective approaches may be! |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 12-10-2024 20:51
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Team Leader
Posts: 7340
Joined: 20-03-2010
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And CT, using the same methodology again. Pretty consistent with the top 6 in the aggregate prediction, but a lot lower on Cervelo and Spark than the others - which surprised me a little as well, though seems to be as it doesn't particularly rate Moscon and Bennett!
| 1 | Newton Foundation p/b Zwift | 2498 | | 2 | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 1651 | | 3 | Trans Looney Tunes | 1493 | | 4 | Duvel-Tsingtao | 1327 | | 5 | Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh | 1161 | | 6 | Team Würth MODYF | 1118 | | 7 | Euskotren - Pays Basque | 1000 | | 8 | Zain - Omantel | 958 | | 9 | Glanbia | 920 | | 10 | Genii Hyundai N Cycling | 891 | | 11 | SEE Turtles | 782 | | 12 | Cervelo Test Team | 739 | | 13 | Ethiopian Airlines | 703 | | 14 | Euskadi-Murias | 574 | | 15 | Babymetal | 565 | | 16 | Hilcona Racing Team | 549 | | 17 | Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo | 548 | | 18 | Spark Team NZ | 508 |
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