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Circulo de Juárez | Discussion
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 04-11-2023 21:53
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
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 Circulo de Juárez
HC - 5 Stages
5x flat
811.1km
Welcome to Mexico - welcome to what once was the world's most dangerous city, Ciudad Juárez! In fact, criminality once was really, really high here - but while the problem isn't fully solved yet, speeding will hopefully be the only "crime" we'll be talking about in the next five days!
Circulo de Juárez is THE sprinter happening in PCT, being the division's only full-flat HC stage race. Five days for the fast men, five days to collect bonus seconds - and in all likelihood, the one picking up most of them will win the race (barring any surprising breakaway wins).
This year we'll have the second consecutive edition at HC level - and in addition to the defending champion, we have three more former winners at the startline this year! But let's first take a look at the full roll of honour, which reaches back to 2014:
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2022 | Kristoffer Halvorsen | Red Bull Zalgiris | | 2021 | Fabio Silvestre | Bralirwa - Stevens | | 2020 | Matti Manninen | Valio - Viking Genetics | | 2019 | Guillaume Boivin | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | 2018 | Mohamed Harif Salleh | Sauber Petronas Racing | | 2017 | Jaime Alberto Castaneda | World Cycling Centre | | 2016 | Ricki Nelson | Podium Ambition | | 2015 | Anthony Lavoine | Fablok - Dunlop | | 2014 | Michael Matthews | Risa - Ergon |
Riders in bold are present in 2023.
Of these four former winners, only the two last ones have some realistic chances of becoming the first rider with more than one GC win; whereas Halvorsen and Manninen are among the favourites, Boivin and Matthews have both declined since - and both are here as leadout riders.
So, let's take a closer look at the sprinters and leadouts (or secondary sprinters) present:
| Sprinter | Fl | Res | Spr | Acc | | Leadout | Fl | Res | Spr | Acc |  Groenewegen | 73 | 71 | 82 | 81 | | Matthews | 75 | 65 | 78 | 77 |  Dainese | 76 | 76 | 81 | 82 | | Gibbons | 75 | 72 | 78 | 78 |  Halvorsen | 76 | 71 | 81 | 80 | | Räim | 74 | 72 | 76 | 75 |  Manninen | 74 | 75 | 81 | 80 | | Ruiz | 79 | 71 | 73 | 75 |  Vesely | 73 | 68 | 81 | 80 | | Kooistra | 75 | 69 | 74 | 74 |  Zabel | 74 | 70 | 81 | 79 | | De Buyst | 73 | 75 | 76 | 76 |  Abdul Halil | 70 | 68 | 81 | 79 | | Gani | 75 | 73 | 76 | 77 |  Bonifazio | 79 | 75 | 80 | 80 | | Mareczko | 74 | 73 | 78 | 77 |  Aniolkowski | 76 | 74 | 80 | 79 | | Lutsyshyn | 70 | 73 | 79 | 80 |  Einhorn | 74 | 71 | 80 | 78 | | Eislers | 74 | 68 | 76 | 75 |  Perera | 71 | 73 | 79 | 80 | | Scott | 72 | 71 | 78 | 78 |  Rodenberg | 74 | 77 | 79 | 79 | | Kump | 70 | 67 | 77 | 74 |  Walscheid | 73 | 74 | 79 | 79 | | Boivin | 72 | 67 | 77 | 77 |  Kamberaj | 75 | 73 | 79 | 78 | | Merlier | 73 | 72 | 78 | 74 |  Kennett | 75 | 76 | 79 | 78 | | Bennett | 70 | 67 | 78 | 78 |  Bol | 76 | 77 | 79 | 77 | | Page | 75 | 72 | 78 | 79 |  Petit | 75 | 70 | 79 | 76 | | Kulikovskiy | 72 | 73 | 76 | 77 |  Welten | 76 | 71 | 79 | 75 | | Walls | 72 | 70 | 78 | 76 |  Bouhanni | 73 | 67 | 79 | 75 | | Bauhaus | 74 | 65 | 78 | 75 |  Marin | 74 | 73 | 78 | 78 | | Andersson | 71 | 73 | 76 | 76 |  Kiskonen | 74 | 77 | 77 | 77 | | Berger | 73 | 68 | 77 | 77 |
So, every team has at least one 77+ sprinter here - and we have 31 78+ sprinters in total. This means we've got an extremely packed field - and basically any team could have a shot at doing great here if their sprinter has good legs - and gets his positioning right.
Nonetheless, there obviously are some favourites - although I'm not sure anymore if that's a good thing, given what we've seen happening to Coquard, Gaviria and other top sprinters so far...
So it's not clear whether Dylan Groenewegen will be happy or not to top the list, as the single fastest sprinter. His start of the year was as good as it could get - one start, one win. Down Under Classic was that race, and he did a perfect job. In this race, he'll be supported by someone who knows how to win in Juárez: Matthews, who also has the required speed on the flat to deliver his leader in great position.
Alberto Dainese is the new star among the sprinters, having already a green jersey at Le Tour to his name. After finishing 2nd in DUC and 4th in GORC, he's the division's #2 after the month of January - and he clearly is in great shape. He's got the strongest acceleration of the entire field, great energy stats and flat skills - and the highest OVL of any rider present (the highest wage, too). Gibbons should be a good leadout for him - and so will Konychev, who should get the first position in the sprint train with his awesome flat speed.
Kristoffer Halvorsen won the race last year, when these two weren't present - but by beating Ahlstrand he clearly showed that he doesn't fear the big names. However, he was off to a rather slow start in DUC and GORC, only getting two low Top 10s. If he can get back to last year's shape, he'll again be a serious contender for the win, though! His support might not be quite as strong, but Räim should still be able to do some solid work.
Matti Manninen will be looking to repeat his 2020 win - which however was at C1 level and with another team. Now he's riding for home team Los Pollos - he already did that in 2021, but probably has eliminated that 11th place from his memory. His 2023 start in DUC was pretty OK, sprinting to 5th place - but he'll want to take the next step in what must be one of his team's most important races of the year! To achieve this task, he doesn't get an actual leadout, though - but two flat beasts with Ruiz and team legend Quispe.
Daniel Vesely's best 2023 race so far was the Tour Down Under, with a 4th place GC finish - whereas his legs weren't great in DUC yet. But he's one of the fastest men present here, and will be targetting his first stage win in this race. He finished 6th and 9th in his previous appearances, looking for more this time! Kooistra should be a decent pick to prepare the sprint for him - not a high-speed leadout, but a solid rouleur.
Rick Zabel is still without a Mexican stage win, but has been improving his GC position over the last three years - 16th, 12th, 7th - if he continues like that, he could even target a podium in 2023... With De Buyst, he also has a strong leadout rider, and Cherkasov can both reel in escapees or ride a really, really high tempo during the sprint preparation.
Mohamad Izzat Hilmi Abdul Halil may well be the rider with the longest name in the field, and he'll be hoping the speakers have to know it by heart by the end of the race. He's the final 81 sprinter on the list - and to be honest, also the least well-rounded one. But that shouldn't matter much, given the purely flat nature of the race. Gani is his designated leadout, with Venturini being almost equivalent, though.
Niccolo Bonifazio is one of the most intriguing names on the list - not among the sprinters with the highest top speed, but what a beast he is on the flat! If he can use this quality to its full extent, this could well be a good joker card up his sleeve! And Mareczko as a leadout is definitely not nothing, either - the latter could even get some results on his own.
Stanislaw Aniolkowski is a pretty well-rounded sprinter, too - good top speed, good acceleration, and good flat skills - even good energy stats, if one day they should actually matter. It's not sure if Lutsyshyn - who had a pretty strong start to the season - will actually be his leadout, or if P4E have rather planned to bring two leaders. We'll soon find out!
Last but not least - at least in the more detailed section of the preview - Itamar Einhorn, the final 80 sprinter. He's just a tad weaker than Aniolkowski in terms of acceleration, flat and energy, but could well be in the mix, too! Eislers should be the designated leadout.
So, that's the 10 80+ sprinters presented in some more detail. However, many more will try to sneak into the Top 10 - or even more. We've seen so far that 79 sprinters can even win in PT, the difference to the top sprinters being so small, and positioning/timing often being far more important than raw speed. What's for sure is that the sprints should be really messy with so many strong riders aiming to participate!
But, is it actually thinkable that a non-sprinter could win the race? Well, it hasn't happened in race history so far - and with all teams bringing fast men it's not very likely that we'll get a breakaway win - but if we do, these could be the prime contenders for staying away:
| Rider | Fl | Res | Spr | Acc | Ftr | | Konychev | 82 | 78 | 76 | 75 | 76 | | Cherkasov | 80 | 74 | 70 | 75 | 65 | | Quispe | 80 | 60 | 66 | 73 | 84 | | Ruiz | 79 | 71 | 73 | 75 | 67 | | Rickaert | 78 | 75 | 75 | 73 | 67 | | Varga | 77 | 73 | 65 | 80 | 83 |
Bonifazio would fit into that list as well with his 79 Fl, but I suppose he'll rather participate in the sprints. Who knows, though... Varga has already delivered big time this year, so I guess the other teams will be warned - but any of these basically can just ride away and keep a gap if the teams behind don't cooperate.
And last but not least - as I always do - a look at the U25 contenders (although that jersey should already be decided, let's be honest):
| Rider | Fl | Res | Spr | Acc | | Dainese | 76 | 76 | 81 | 82 | | Rodenberg | 74 | 77 | 79 | 79 | | Scott | 72 | 71 | 78 | 78 | | Walls | 72 | 70 | 78 | 76 | | Konychev | 82 | 78 | 76 | 75 | | Szarka | 75 | 72 | 76 | 76 | | Ruiz | 79 | 71 | 73 | 75 |
If it's only sprinter skills that matter, Dainese should be at least one level above the rest. Rodenberg should be the favourite for 2nd, given that he's the only other team leader among the U25 riders. Konychev and Ruiz could get an upset if they take a breakaway win - or pick up enough bonus seconds via breaks - but probably just for 2nd, the winner should definitely be clear here.
And that's it from my side - the reports will be brought to you by Imladrik, whom I'd like to thank a lot for all his great work!
But before we'll dive into the race and the discussions - here's the full startlist:
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 05-11-2023 05:56
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
Joined: 05-10-2010
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First big race for AH! All the big boys are here, which may not be a bad thing looking at basically every race so far this season. I expect a lot of disappointment and colourful language from all participating managers, and a great feeling of existential dread for those whose teams decide to form trains 
Impossible to say how this will go, but a top-10 GC with solid stage placing a would be a dream. Thanks for the preview!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 05-11-2023 15:00
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Directeur Sportif
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You gotta root for Bonifazio. I like the chances of Dainese & Manninen though.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 05-11-2023 18:41
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Walscheid getting himself exposed too early but good to see him trying, hopefully he can snatch a few top 10s and get us some points.
Thanks to Fab for the preview and Imladrik for the racing.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 05-11-2023 18:51
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
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No clue what Bol did there, was in perfect position only to drop back to 20th under the red kite. Awful riding.
And another awful PCM22 sprint, it's a hopeless case.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 05-11-2023 22:02
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
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As meh as it comes. Not great, not terrible, but need some top 3s pronto big dawg
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 05-11-2023 22:17
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2073
Joined: 11-07-2010
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Messy sprint from Dainese, but he shows that he has the speed to compete for the win here, he just need to improve on the timing and positioning.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 05-11-2023 23:12
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Posts: 4505
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Messy as anything, but that’s exactly how it needs to be for Abdul Halil to capitalise on better sprinter’s mistakes. He came so close to the win, absolutely rocketed to the finish after hiding behind Manninen and Halvorsen - two good wheels to surf for sure. Hopefully he can keep this up and get a few more good stage placings. Fully expect to not even be in the top-50 tomorrow though
I wonder if Fastned and Assa will continue to be the only trains as well, and how that will play onto Groenwegen and Dainese’s chances?
Congrats Fj, good win for your man! Thanks for the lovely report
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 06-11-2023 07:38
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Flat stages where we work a lot to chase down breaks are exactly the ones where Vesely has been failing in the sprint. I would guess it is because he's going to the front too early as all the chasing is tiring out the support staff. Hope we can change it around otherwise sprints will be a bust this season.
Congrats to fj and thanks for the report Imladrik!
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| MacC |
Posted on 06-11-2023 08:37
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Sprinter
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Good start from Kennett, definitely a target race for him
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 06:31
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 06-11-2023 17:13
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Pretty decent leadout I’d say, but unfortunately Dainese left it a bit late. Hopefully we can continue the improvement on the next stage and get on the podium.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 06-11-2023 20:57
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Looked bad at first but through sheer WILL, DETERMINATION and WINNING GENE Halvorgoat salvaged a podium. Thats not too bad, need some more of that please
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 06-11-2023 21:37
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That sucks, Manninen and Abdul Halil were flying and somehow got blocked by Groenwegen on the side. I think both would have at least podiumed the stage of not for the blocking. Still another great effort from Abdul Halil, on another day that could have been a stage win. Onwards! Still weird seeing 77-78-79 sprinters easily capable of staying with much better sprinters as wel.
Thanks for the report, and congrats Fabianski on the win!
Edited by Eden95 on 07-11-2023 04:32
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 06-11-2023 22:46
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4th podium of the season, 1st win - great job, Cees! 
Positioning and timing were just perfect this time - and maybe the energy stats still helped him a tiny little bit to stay up front until the line?
This at least makes up for some of the lost points in Ukraine - in fact, this one stage is worth almost 3x what we got from a race we thought would suit us far more ^^
Will be interesting to see where Cees can land in the end; the base is laid for a Top 10-15 result, which would have been my expectation pre-race.
But as much as I love to see Bol winning, I just hate to see how the engine mistreats some top sprinters once again. Groenewegen and Vesely seem to be the unlucky ones this time - I mean, the division's best (or 2nd best, if you like Dainese more) sprinter doesn't even get close to a Top 10 in two attempts - what's wrong here? At least with PCM20 we only had the "4th sprinter bug" - this version seems to ignore the top sprinter, at least in stage races... I do seriously hope they can turn things around in the upcoming stages!
@Eden
Thanks for the congrats. And yeah, I agree that the 79- sprinters shouldn't be fighting for the win... although I do think that Bol with his pretty high Fl and Res has an advantage over e.g. Abdul Halil in longer, tougher sprints.
Thanks to Imladrik for the report!
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 06-11-2023 23:19
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Well stage 2 was better then stage 1. Hopefully Perera can keep improving here.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 07-11-2023 04:38
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@Fab oh definitely, Bol would be one of the only 78-79 you’d expect to do well in a stacked field - wasn’t trying to discredit him winning at all. Just something I’ve noticed on a lot of flat stages this season is big underdogs getting up (moreso than Bol) a lot more often.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 07-11-2023 05:14
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10 positions better and yet still not near good enough! We did the same thing again just that Vesely was smarter this time but still got blocked in and lost all his momentum. Not looking good for this race, and probably other sprint races for the season unfortunately. Probably serves me right for sending a weak ass support team.
Congrats to Fab and thanks for the report 
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 07-11-2023 07:12
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
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First of all a big thank you to Fabianski for the great preview, and mentioning team legend Quispe. He is a big guy who never ceases to disappoint, as he is showing once again.
Like Imladrik mentioned, he (Quispe, not Fab) is insatiable and yet on another KoM-run, and who knows, he might even be able to finish on the highest podium spot in that competition for once. Manninen did well in the first sprint to finish third, but sadly got blocked there in the second sprint. Seventh in GC for now, still everything to play for with three stage to come. Congratulations to stage winners hoekie and Fab (with the latter getting rewarded for his preview work ). Thank you very much as well of course to Imladrik for the perfect sprint reports so far!
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| roturn |
Posted on 07-11-2023 07:33
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Aim was to win 1 or 2 stages and fight for the GC or minimum podium.
In reality it`s fighting for a single bonus second it seems...it`s incredible how bad PCM handles sprint these days...The final km is just too long it seems as all the riders up there under the Flamme Rouge are just tired and drop down to 12th-20th.
If Groenewegen is doing this all year in races where scoring potential should be high, the promotion is in danger I guess.
@Fabianski: It`s no longer about ignoring. All sprinters participate now, which is a big plus. But the top sprinters, that have trains and are in the wind earlier empty out. PCM somehow can`t handle the right timing anymore. |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 07-11-2023 07:53
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Classics Specialist
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roturn wrote:
In reality it`s fighting for a single bonus second it seems...it`s incredible how bad PCM handles sprint these days...The final km is just too long it seems as all the riders up there under the Flamme Rouge are just tired and drop down to 12th-20th.
I think the change from 'normal' pcm roads to long and wide final kilometres has been very negative for any team with lead-outs/top sprinters. (Mostly the lead-outs). Lead-outs used to be positive, but nowadays most people hope they never get one. Just the way I see things and what I feel I learned from reporting btw.
Conmiserations to everyone with a top/good sprinter not performing here...
For myself, I can only be happy with Manninen's second place on stage three. Great win for Glanbia and Kennett, so congratulations to them. Fourth in GC, second in points and first in KoM with two stages to go. Although things getting worse is statistically a way bigger possibility than improving on these results, one can only hope  Thanks for another great report, Imladrik!
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