Races: Paris-Roubaix Giro d'Italia GP Liechtenstein Roma Maxima Veenendal - Veenendal Amstel Gold Race
3 good months - relatively speaking - leaves room for a blunder here and there. We do expect this to be one of those months where we can expect a bit of beating, as the top guys are likely present in all races, and with only Coquard in out setup as a top level rider we could get into some kind of trouble.
Paris-Roubaix
Normally we would expect something from this race in the region of 20th, but we have had horrible cobbled races all year, so the expectations to this race was low from the beginning - and with good reason. Despite expecting between 30-60 points, we could hardly get there. 35 points was secured simply from a sufficient number of riders finishing the Hell of North.
Actual points: 35pts
Giro d'Italia
For the first time ever, a fully greek team was present - and at the big scene. Giannoutsos and Mavrikakis were here to aim for a decent GC aswell as fighting for stagewins and KOM points. Only the former actually managed to do anything in that direction. The stagewin never came though, and the KOM was also far away from achievable.
Farantakis unfortunately had a very poor race, which moves him out of contention of reaching his season estimate, despite starting the race in a good state well above the expected. But only one podium place in 7 tries was devastating.
Despite not really succeeding anywhere, the accumulated amount of points where alright. We excpected between 2-300 points, and came away with almost 300.
Actual points: 289pts
GP Liechtenstein
Chiarello and Spanopoulos was in Liechtenstein while most of the greek core was in Italy. We had expected Chiarello to finish inside top 15, maybe even fighting for top 10 - but he didn't achieve neither. It was close though in 16th, and with a solid performance from Spanopoulos we did manage to end up in the expected region of 60-80 points. Chiarello is far far from what we expected from him though, and he only have two races remaining.
Actual points: 75pts
Roma Maxima
As always we expected nothing going into a cobbled race. We had a slim hope that a fluke result could come our way, and we could end up between 20-40 points - and that was pretty much exactly the case. Not only did Karatzios pick up 15th, Kortsidakis was also 20th to put us right in the middle of our expectations. Still our cobbled department is very far from good enough, and it's likely that neither of our cobbled leaders will achieve their expected points tally.
Actual points: 32pts
Veenendal - Veenendal
In Veenendal we came with the pre-race favorite, and expected a win - or at the very least a podium from Coquard. Unfortunately it wasn't meant to be, and he failed miserably. It was the one race where we expected a result, and thus it was a major blow to the month to miss out! 100-150 points was our expected goal, so to come out with 28 points is very bad.
Actual points: 28pts
Amstel Gold Race
As mention in the preview, Koretzky has struggled to achieve great results in the Amstel Gold Race in the past, with a 10th place being his (by far) best result. Despite that we expected a solid result in the region of 90-120 points. So it was hard felt when Koretzky yet again proved to struggle in the dutch punchy classic, and our team was left with only 58 points. Mainly from finishing the race.
Actual points: 58pts
Overall expectations:
Prior to the month we had 500-750 points as a benchmark, but we did expect the Giro to be the potential outlier - it wasn't. In fact it was the other races that combined made is struggle!
In the end we managed to overcome the minimum expectations, but in a month where expectations was already very low - it sure wasn't the month we hoped for!
So many cobbles - oh so many cobbles! Luckily March is over, and despite the cobbles it was alright in the end. Unfortunately April starts out by even more cobbles, in the Hell of North - but it is also time for something new entirely. Grand Tour!
Races: Fleche Wallonne Liege - Bastogne - Liege Chrono d'Arenberg Rund um Köln Vuelta a España
Squads:
5 races this month, and a mixed group of everything except for cobbles - Ahh yes. A month without cobbles. We can't wait!
Fleche Wallonne
While the Amstel Gold Race is mostly with Koretzky well outside the top 10, the Fleche Wallonne is often with Koretzky inside, or in 11th place - which he has gotten 3 times.
In 2020 he was 2nd, so he has showed that on the right circumstances, he can fight for the win here. Realistically he'll be in the lower spectrum of top 10 - but he needs to be there about. We expect a similar result as we expected for Amstel. He missed the target there - let's hope for a bulls eye this time!
Expected points: 90-120pts
Liege - Bastogne - Liege
Where Amstel is usually bad, and Fleche Wallonne is usually a mixture of things, the Liege - Bastogne - Liege has often been a very good race for Koretzky - and he hasn't missed the top 10 except for once in the last 6 tries. There he helped Spilak to achieve 2nd, though. Two times has Koretzky finished the race as 4th.
The ambition is a top 10, just like with the two other ardennes, but being a monument, it offers more points, and thus our ambitions are slightly higher.
Expected points: 100-140pts
Chrono d'Arenberg
In the horrible Chrono d'Arenberg we attended as a pre-race favorite last season. Vlatos was 7th in the end, but with Cataford winning in 2020 and getting 2nd in 2021 we do expect Vlatos to be among the favorites once more.
We have a decent setup for the race, but other teams have better favorites I'd reckon. Still I expect Vlatos to do better than last season, and with also a very well equipped Stavrakakis I could see a decent allround result.
Expected points: 80-100pts
Rund um Köln
In Veenendal it was a big miss for Coquard, but the Rund um Köln has been a solid race for us in the past. The past 3 seasons Coquard managed to get a top 5 on every occassion, even coming as close as 2nd in one attempt.
Excepct for Farantakis he does have his best possible leadout here, including Koretzky for the difficult part, and as an early kicker in the sprint. Anything less than a top 5 would be very bad for us.
Expected points: 100-150pts
Vuelta a España
Not having Lecuisinier on board anymore, does make the Grand Tours less spectacular, but this is the time where Chiarello needs to step up. He has been subpar all season, and only the Vuelta and one more race is left in the tank. Mavrikakis recently landed 21st in the Giro and is ready for more shared leadership. He needs to better the 65 points scored in the Giro though.
Spanopoulos and Bouglas are both here having free roles to attack/sprint for glory - and we hope that every now and again they can hit a decent outing. Despite the Giro being all greek and having Giannoutsos and Farantakis as leaders aswell, I do expect the Vuelta to be better! Let's see how it goes.
Expected points: 300-400pts
Overall expectations:
On paper it isn't a super month - but it's definately one of those where we need to perform. With key racedays to both Coquard, Vlatos, Chiarello and Koretzky we can't afford to miss, unless we want to heavy contest the relegation.
After a bad month of April, we had to pick ourselves up from the dirt to see if we could get a controlled rise during May, which on paper could be pretty decent.
Races: Fleche Wallonne Liege - Bastogne - Liege Chrono d'Arenberg Rund um Köln Vuelta a España
Fleche Wallonne
After a poor Amstel Gold Race we needed for Koretzky to step up in the Fleche Wallonne, but he didn't. In fact he performed one of his worst ever results in the race to take 19th, and thus the face of the team manager began to wrinkle even more in dispair of the sudden hault of performance by the french superstar.
Coming to the race with a subtle expectation of 90-120 points we are devastated by the 67 points actually formed by our riders.
Actual points: 67pts
Liege - Bastogne - Liege
With a horrendous run-up to the Liege-monument, arms was way down, and expectations and belief had settled into quiet dreams of a respectable performance. Luckily things did clear up a bit, and with Kastrantas in front of the race we atleast had some pressure taken away from Koretzky.
With a few km to Koretzky was suddenly in a brilliant position to fight for the podium, but the recent lack of form showed again and he was dropped from a relatively modest lead group, only to finish 10th, which is acceptable. Kastrantas added a bit to the points so we ended up perfectly inside the expected 100-140 points module. Still with some catching up to do, though.
Actual points: 120pts
Chrono d'Arenberg
With a solid mix of Vlatos and talented cobbler Stavrakakis we came with an expectations of atleast 80 points, with 100 being the more realistic benchmark, but also knowing that on the right day this could be a great race for us.
It was.
Not so much because of Vlatos, who ended up where he was supposed to (6th), but because Stavrakakis showed that he's more than capable of posing a serious win-threat to this race in the future with his solid 7th place. The 100 points mark was beat, and we looked to be somewhat back on track for the month.
Actual points: 132pts
Rund um Köln
As the month hadn't been very succesful we needed our sprinting star to show the path, much like he did in the early part of the season. Form seemed to be slightly on the retreat during April, so it wasn't without struggle we slept the night before.
Coquard looked strong during the race and was in a solid position going into the sprint, but the timing was off. From 1st to 10th in a matter of seconds, and we yet again had to leave without a big cheer. Fortunately our riders quantified their performance to stay near the front to make up for some of the lost. The expected level of 100-150 points from the race was just covered this way. But only just.
Actual points: 104pts
Vuelta a España
The Giro d'Italia had been a good experience, albeit not a solidifying our points, so we came with slightly higher ambitions to try to provoke succes in the Vuelta. Bouglas had a decent first week starting of brilliantly, but showing his lack of top end speed on numerous occasions. Still we were fairly content with the situation.
As the 2nd week progressed however we started to slowly lose faith, as our riders weren't able to comply with the team tactics and we constantly saw ourself missing out or featuring the breakaways with unsuitable constructions.
It was the first timetrial of the race that finally tipped things in our favor, as Chiarello put on a massive performance to take 2nd, and make a drastic jump in the GC. And just when we thought it couldn't get any better - it did.
Chiarello tricked the peloton from front on the very next day to take a massive stagewin, and consolidate his position inside the GC top 10. Neither Spanopoulos nor Mavrikakis felt particularly well during the 3rd week, so our aggressive tactics changed towards trying to keep Chiarello as high as possible, and we succeded in that. 8th place in the GC was significantly better than we had expected prior to the race, and we managed to beat our expected goal of 300-400 points due to this.
We expected these figures to be brought home by other measures, but we'll happily take the change.
Actual points: 418pts
Overall result:
After a rought start to the month we manage to fight back, and end up in the high spectrum of our expectations. We didn't break the expectations, but after doing poorly in April we are happy to be inside the expected level once more. The expected level was between 670-910.
The month of June is almost vacation for our riders, as only one small race is in sight.
We managed to lift ourselves back from pitty to a respectable level in May. June however will be difficult to use as a measurement, as we only participate in 1 single race.
Races: Scandinavian Open Road Race
Squads:
Just a single squad here, but let's give it a small breakdown, nontheless.
Scandinavian Open Road Race
The punchy race in Scandinavia invites a lot of puncheurs, also including our very own Clement Koretzky, aswell as trying to provoke a decent depth result from numerous rider types.
Last season we didn't participate in the race where top puncheurs and strong GC prospects dominated the race from start to finish. This time the opening prologue seems more open for different types, which is why we have decided to opt for Vlatos. We also have Kiriakidis, Ioannidis, Spanopoulos and Giannoutsos who all have a fairly decent prologue capacity. With this we hope for 1 or maybe 2 of those to find their strongest legs and thus have a slight advantage over similar riders in the GC. We aknowledge that it's a long shot, but we wanted to attempt to strike gold with numbers when we didn't have the optimum contender. Koretzky, however is our leader and if he can rise from the dead he should be able to disturb som piece and quiet, and who knows - maybe snatch a stagewin.
Expected points: 90-120pts
Overall expectations:
Well, there's not much to add really.
At the closure of the Vuelta a España and the month of May we are exactly 2/3 into the season with the final 1/3 remaining from June onwards to November.
Having ridden also 2/3 of the seasons Grand Tours it seems like a very solid time to make the final mid-way evaluation of our team and the progress. Last time we checked we still missed the Grand Tours, so numbers could look drastically changed now. Let's dig into it - but first the premise:
Prior to the season we set a benchmark for the season expecting 5.075 points up towards a maximum of 5.250 points. The pre-GT benchmark looked very solid with us moving in the region of 6.000 points, but adjusted the RD loss of non-succesful GT riders it looked aproximately at 5.500 come season end.
So the benchmark we are looking for is in the region of 5.250 - 5.500 points. Let's see if we can make that, or if things have changed for the worse! As always we break it into groups for dynamic data shuffling, which also makes transfers easier to manouvre.
Rider name
Exp. Pts
Exp. PPrD
Actual PPrD
Projection
Difference
W. Chiarello
600
10,9
12,2
673
73
M. Giannoutsos
250
4,0
4,3
265
15
M. Mavrikakis
250
3,9
2,7
172
-78
I. Spanopoulos
150
2,2
2,3
160
10
Total
1250
21
Last time around Chiarello was trailing his expected level by something similar to 120 points, while Giannoutsos was trailing even more. Both Mavrikakis and Spanopoulos looked good though. So it's really interesting to see how the tables have turned. Chiarello with a great Vuelta a España almost jumps up to his benchmark of 480 points total from last time, and as he still have Tour de France left he's now looking to settle in nicely around the 600 points mark. Maybe even better - if he continues to provide solid results. Giannoutsos had a solid Giro d'Italia to also climb back on top. He too have the Tour de France in sight so it's somewhat realistic that one hinders the other from achieving the goal. If the sum is positive, that's OK.
Mavrikakis had a pretty decent Giro d'Italia, but a very anonymous Vuelta, which saw him trail quite a bit at this benchmark, and with only 12 racedays to go he is one of those riders that will miss out on his goals unfortunately. Spanopoulos is on a tipping point, but is so close to the target that even if he does miss it, it will be by a negligable margin.
In total the pool is almost deadcenter to the expected level. 21 points ahead of schedule 2/3 into the season.
Rider name
Exp. Pts
Exp. PPrD
Actual PPrD
Projection
Difference
C. Koretzky
750
16,7
10,1
454
-296
A. Miltiadis
100
1,5
1,4
96
-4
C. Kastrantas
100
1,3
2,9
217
117
E. Morin
75
1,3
1,9
109
34
A. Vila
75
1,3
1,2
72
-3
V. Lafay
75
1,2
1,6
102
27
Total
1175
-125
In the hilly sector we had an artificially high benchmark due to the strong results in limited races from Kastrantas which catapulted him into an expected level of 700 points. Clement Koretzky on the other hand trailed by more than 400 points and seemed to settle around 350 points in total, which would be catastrophic. The others were give or take inside the expected level.
This time things look more balanced. Koretzky have caught up by more than 100 points, but is still having an infuriatingly poor season locked at 300 points below expectations, with many of his key races already over. We don't expect him to move things into a better position. Not notably anyway. Kastrantas is still punching above his wheight and is far above his pre-season expectation. He's expected to finish around 100 points above, which takes a bit of pressure away from Koretzky. Miltiadis and Vila are as close to dead center as we can get, while Morin and Lafay is slightly above.
Unfortunately the wheight on this pool heavily lies with Koretzky and his massive underperformances can't be fully enhanced by his team mates, which means that we are infact trailing by 125 points, making us 100 points below expectations.
Rider name
Exp. Pts
Exp. PPrD
Actual PPrD
Projection
Difference
P. Vlatos
300
6,0
7,3
367
67
N. Ioannidis
200
3,1
1,5
94
-106
I. Kiriakidis
150
2,2
3,5
242
92
Total
650
53
Last time Vlatos looked to have a disaster of a season, missing his relatively low expected score. Fortunately he has lifted his way from missing aproximately 60 points, to actually adding 60 points. He still have a couple of interesting races left, so there's even a chance to further attack the expectations. Ioannidis on the other hand is having a horrible season. From bad to worse, and he is now expected to land more than 100 points below his 200 point expected mark. This would be catastrophic looking at the amount of money spent into developping him. Fortunately there is a group of races that should suit him well in the end, but we are well aware that he's a rider type that a lot of others can match, and if he doesn't hit his timetrials, he won't get a good result.
The contrary seems to be the case for newly maxed Kiriakidis who seems to enjoy his season. Not quite as much as last time, but that's alright. He's almost guaranteed to reach his expected level, and a bit more would be very welcome!
In total this category is going down a bit - in fact 100 points here aswell, but luckily it's still afloat adding 50 points to the 125 negative, which reduces to just -75, before moving into a very interesting category!
Rider name
Exp. Pts
Exp. PPrD
Actual PPrD
Projection
Difference
B. Coquard
900
23,1
36,1
1409
509
S. Farantakis
400
7,3
6,6
362
-38
G. Bouglas
100
1,4
1,7
126
26
Total
1400
498
Bryan Coquard made a fool out of his expectations last time, exceding it by 600 points, while Farantakis was also 250 above, and Bouglas slightly above aswell. In total this gave this false sense of security by bringing +900! Things are still looking great though, despite things have changed radically. And this because Coquard have already beaten his expected score by 200 points. And being the undisputed most important aspect of our entire team, that brings us a long long way. He's set to smash his record by a huge margin by taking 1400 points in total. 100 less than last benchmark, but still encredibly high.
His teammates however have found a more realistic middle ground though. Farantakis who had a brilliant 3 first month was really brought back to earth after a horrible Giro d'Italia and 21/55 RD's thrown into the bin. From 250 points up, he's now almost 50 points behind. That being said, he can't lose more than Coquard have already gained, so in the grand scheme of things, this WILL be a succes. Bouglas is riding his own and is looking set to fit in nicely with the expected 100 points. If he lands a result or two he'll beat it, if not, it's on par.
Overall things are still looking great with a +500 expected scoring, which we know will probably drop to 300 or so, but still great. This means that we move from being a bit lacklustre to actually thriving with 425 or so points ahead of expectations.
Rider name
Exp. Pts
Exp. PPrD
Actual PPrD
Projection
Difference
G. Karatzios
150
3,3
2,2
98
-52
M. Kortsidakis
150
2,5
2,5
153
3
G. Stavrakakis
75
1,2
2,3
150
75
Total
375
26
The cobbled department was struggling last time, with -70 points, driven by a very poorly performing Karatzios. But we know that these figures are small, so things can quickly change. And it did. Karatzios is still looking to have a poor season, but he's slowly closing the gap, to a degree where he actually can't possibly end up as bad a last time, and with still 13 racedays to go he'll close the gap further - if not entirely. Probably not entirely though.
Kortsidakis was slightly below par, which has now leveled out nicely, and then Stavrakakis moved well ahead of things due to a great 7th place in Chrono d'Arenberg, which actually makes him the best performing cobbler of the team.
The category now seems to balance fine - a bit in the positive, but also without any interesting races to really up the ante from here. We expect a small drop, to maybe -50 in the end, but nothing devastating. And a single decent result can blow the category from mediocre to good. 450 in the positive before moving into the final category.
Rider name
Exp. Pts
Exp. PPrD
Actual PPrD
Projection
Difference
A. Koumpetsos
50
0,8
1,1
64
14
J. Nsengimana
50
0,6
1,7
134
84
L. Delco
50
0,9
1,4
82
32
J. Kelly
50
0,7
1,3
92
42
A. Agrotis
25
1,6
2,1
34
9
Total
225
181
Before a Grand Tour the domestiques category always seem full of live, and with +450 points this group was no different last time. Things have settled more into a normal spectrum now, and with a good amount of racedays invested into TdF and PTHC races we can expect to see this one drop further towards the end.
We won't dwell too much with the figures last time, but instead highlight the numbers now. No rider within this group can fail us miserably. Worst in progress is Delco with 39/50 points, but also with 30 racedays to go, best is Kelly with 63/50 and 23 to go. Agrotis is done for the season and ended up with +9 points.
So even if the group should end up abandoning all races the loss is limited to 20 points. And we know that won't happen. +180 as we look at right now, won't happen either, but +50 seems very realistic. We obviously add the 180 as a benchmark though, so we end up aproximately 625 points ahead of the originally expected level.
Conclusion:
A quick add up gives exactly 5.729 points expected for the season, where last season was on (without adjusting) 6.847 points. So in that regards we are down significantly, but adjusted to aproximately 6.000, we are in fact not too far behind, which is really encouraging. We still have some toetipping here and there which could actually see us ending up close to the originally expected 5.075, but everything looks like the last benchmark of 5.250-5.500 is a much better estimate. To still have leeway in that region is definately a positive situation.
Numbers have normalized to such a level that we don't find it plausable to further strengthen ambitions for the final part of the season. We are 3.670 points currently, which gives a 1/3 of 1.835 points. We only need 1.580 to hit the low spectrum of our expected level in the final 1/3 of the season. This figure however is higher than the period we have just left, where we only scored 1.488 points, so as said - we still are very much on a tip toe as to whether or not things will end out positive, or "just" balanced.
The relegation battle isn't quite on the table just yet, but the top 10 will become a bit of a struggle.
As always, please do comment. Things like this is fun to make, but much more fun to discuss.
I'm really not into all the number breakdowns, but with some casual following of PT it seems to me that Chiarello has proved himself to be a GT overperformer, both at Evonik and now at your team
@Laurens147 - Thanks mate It does seem like we are a bit away from actually having a viable all-Greek setup though.
@redordead - Indeed, Chiarello seems like one of those riders perfectly balanced to be in the 7-15 GC pool, and if he is outside, then very aggressive in the breaks. I must admit I had hoped to see either Mavrikakis, Spanopoulos or Giannoutsos be somewhat close to copying that, but unfortunately there's still a long way to go. Those 3 combined have actually scored less points than Chiarello despite featuring a combined wage of almost 50% more than Chiarello costs, and that will definately go up as 3mio was invested in upping their stats after the wages were settled. So a bit worrying for the future
Thanks for sharing all those calculations and statistics! As a numbers freak, I love to read them - but I mostly forget to comment on them, sorry.
Despite some sub-par races, overall it still looks good for your team. Especially Coquard is having a great season - even with some fails. And Chiarello is the same well-known overperformer he always was
I also understand your disappointment with your Greek riders. I guess that many of them now are in a range where inflation hits them, so it's just random whether they are picked by the AI or someone else. Maybe they're too weak to be GC leaders, and too strong to attack (at least in the earlier stages). Maybe they "just" have to get even stronger to consistently perform well - I don't know. But I'm sure your great experience will help you find the right solution for them
Congrats on the HQ award by the way, you're definitely a deserved winner!
Catching up on some of the HQs, first of all congrats on the award! I always enjoy your numbers and the thought process behind it. I'm glad to see that the approach you've taken is working out, generally. And of course I'm also happy to see Nsengimana outperforming expectations
I was somewhat surprised by the low expected points on Vlatos, I have to say. I'm not super familiar with the PT calendar and competition is fierce, but I would have expected a rider of his caliber to be a bit more "beneficial", if that's the right word? Maybe what Zmorka did in PCT last year skewed my expectations a bit (I recognize Vlatos is not at that level relative to his division, but still.) Looking forward to seeing how the final numbers will shape up, especially if Koretzky and Coquard regress a little towards the mean.
Yeah, overall things are still looking fairly bright. We do have a fair amount of PTHC races still ahead of us, which can trick the eye a bit. But then again, our riders might benefit from the PTHC as top top riders can't ride them all, while our leaders can. 7 of our 14 remaining races are PTHC races and none of them are absolutely spot on in terms of expecting a huge outcome.
Indeed I'm a bit worried as to what to do with my greeks, but training them is certainly on the table. I actually considered not training Farantakis because he did so well in the opening, so I kinda figured that if he was to take Coquards role in more fitting races he could perform even better - maybe upwards 7-800 points pr. season, which would make training him unviable. But I'm in doubts after seeing how poorly he played it out in the Giro. A lot will depend on his performances in Lithuania and Slovenia where he's having his last shots as leader this season.
I kinda hope he proves himself enough for me to stick to the plan of waiting with his training, which frees some room for training others. Unlike this season I have A LOT of potential to train next season. Also trainings that could alter things a lot for us. Mavrikakis, Giannoutsos, Ioannidis, Kiriakidis and Kortsidakis could (on paper atleast), take massive steps towards becoming sub-leaders that could score 5-700 points pr. season. Spanopoulos and Miltiadis are also open for training which could change their appearance in some degree.
The core of our greek riders should improve next season, but the decrease of Vlatos, Karatzios and Bouglas are somewhat concerning. All of them are still useful after 1 year of decline though, and Bouglas will be somewhat replaced by Koumpetsos before being useless, while Stavrakakis immidiately takes the place of Karatzios, and probably better him. To cover Vlatos -1 could be done with Ioannidis 79 or Kiriakidis 76-78-80 (over two seasons), but it requires training to just cover the gap.
That being said, we do improve elsewhere with Agrotis becoming decent, Vila being strong and Christapopoulos adding some depth. The other loanouts will start to contribute further down the line.
@cunego59
Thanks for the congrats
Nsengimana haven't really been played out in the breaks yet, but he's very consistent in picking up points here and there nontheless, and actually he's still lacking 10 races, out of the 14 we have left. I hope he can keep it up, and there's a match at the end of the season
300 points for Vlatos is basically adjusted from something like 350 normal, due to the shorter calender. He has been performing between 328-552 points every year the past 6 seasons, and he could well end up there again, but in all honesty I think he has been overperforming stat wise for a LONG time. In particularly last season. The reason for the "drastic" reduction was the influx of 79-81 TT'ers suddenly moving up. Last season he was behind Phinney and Würtz and then there was almost empty towards some 79TT riders, and a few GC riders where the clashes would be rare.
He doesn't have any stats worth mentioning outside his TT stat, which obviously makes him lesser of a rider than Würtz, Ganna, Dennis and Küng. But he has outclassed the likes of Paillot, Sütterlin, Goldstein, Dal Col etc., which theoretically should have a good shot at just picking up that one random succes-story to beat him. In the season before he was also the best pure TT'er by some margin, even beating Kung, Coppel and destroying the likes of Durbridge, Sütterlin, Goldstein, Dillier, Lammertink etc.
With 6 races left he could make another good season, but I think 300-400 points is the likely result for a rider of his caliber. Next season might be 200-300 due to decline.
I sure do hope that Koretzky will show up. Coquard I can better accept only performing mediocre, but it would be highly appreciated if they both show their top level so we can keep out of trouble. Our Top 10 PT goal is the only one we can realistically achieve, so we are in some problems regarding finances
Scandinavian Open Road Race
We came with a pretty well-rounded team with a little bit of everything, but it came as a pleasant surprise when Ioannidis managed a brilliant 5th place in the opening prologue.
Both Spanopoulos and Kiriakidis also performed well in the shades of the overperforming Ioannidis, and in particular the former was a good thing. Expectations from Ioannidis was shattered in the 2nd stage as he and Kiriakidis wasn't able to perform nearly as good as we had hoped. Spanopoulos took the shadows of the best riders and landed in 14th GC after the day. Giannoutsos also progressed a bit, but it was the final stage that lifted the spirits.
Koretzky lead out Spanopoulos who climbed to 10th in the GC, a marvellous performance by the greek. Koretzky catapulted himself inside the top 25 with this performance aswell, and Giannoutsos broke into the top 20.
Minor points was also achieved from Kiriakidis and Ioannidis who had that opening prologue to fall back on. We came with the ambition of 90-120 points, but shattered the expecations.
Actual points: 198pts
Overall results:
With just one race, it's just copy/paste.
With just one race in June - albeit a good one - we really look forward to utilizing
Races: Tour de France Tour of Lithuania Tour of Slovenia
Squads:
Moving up from 1 race to 3 doesn't seem like much, but we increase the amount of days in the saddle from 3 to 30, which is 10 times as many as in June. It's also time for the greek setups very first Tour de France!
Tour de France
The Tour de France is always a spectacle. We don't bring a lot of quality however, so whether we can take part of the party or not is a big questionsmark. Chiarello will lead the team just like he did with succes in Spain, and Giannoutsos is there to offer his support, and maybe ride with a decent amount of freedom. Bouglas is our designated sprinter, but he will have to find his own way to glory, and we don't expect him to do so in such a difficult route. The likes of Lafay, Morin and Miltiadis can hopefully enjoy the first two weeks with aggressive ridings.
If we consider Chiarello a top 10-15 aspiration, and Giannoutsos somewhere around 25-30 and we aim for a little bit of stage succes, we can expect to score 350-400 points from this race. Let's see if we can actually do so!
Expected points: 350-400pts
Tour of Lithuania
We join the Tour of Lithuania with a fairly well equipped setup, however the TTT will probably define whether or not this race is a succes. The TTT is relatively short, but nontheless we don't expect the final hilly stage to shake up things too bad. Clement Koretzky is the weak spot of the team with his 63 TT, and we hope to bring him into a decent spot where he can attack the GC in the final stage. The overall of the other 7 riders is 74,7 which is no way near close to a win, but might keep us around top 10. For the flat stages we have Stylianos Farantakis, and then we hope to see Stavrakakis and Koretzky help him with positioning.
Given that this race is new to us, we don't know fully what to expect. On paper the likes of Ioannidis, Kiriakidis and Spanopoulos could do well, Koretzky too if the TTT isn't too defining. We expect a few stagepoints from Farantakis aswell, so we end up expecting a reasonable race.
Expected points: 70-100pts
Tour of Slovenia
Slovenia offers both a TTT aswell as an ITT, and two reasonably difficult hilly top finishes. The race has previously been won by the likes of Ganna, Bobridge and Sepulveda. We might be looking mostly towards the latter for any sort of succes. Koretzky is here for a free role, and maybe to help if we should end up with a solid position with Ioannidis, Kiriakidis and Spanopoulos. Much like we hope in Lithuania, and what happened to a degree in Scandinavia. Farantakis took his first ever professional stagewin in Slovenia last season, and despite there only being one flat stage we have opted to bring him again. Hopefully the fact that only 1 flat stage is in store, and no prologues either will keep many sprinters off the table and give Farantakis a good shot at succes.
We think this race suits us a bit better than Lithuania due to the longitude of the timetrial aspect. We are respectable at Team Time Trials, and offer some well rounded guys for the individual. Chances on the individual spektrum is slighly lower though, so our overall expectation is aproximately the same.
Expected points: 70-100pts
Overall expectations:
It isn't the best of races for us, but we have chances everywhere to make something happen, as we ride with multiple options. So we will try to roll with the flow and see what kind of options arrive.
We have been monitoring our riders very closely during the season, and being 1 week into the Tour de France, we feel like we have finally compiled enough data to deliver a realistic take on our riders development for the upcoming season.
No less than 16 riders is looking to progress, which is extremely positive. Between those 16, 9 are with our regional focus, which will only further lift the level of our project.
3 of those will move into their elite level, in which they will need to take responsibility to lift the performance. Let's have a look at the progressions.
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Georgios Stavrakakis
4>Max
24yo
Fabian
€50.000
Fl
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We are extremely pleased with the progression of Stavrakakis, who is forming into a solid team leader. He already lifted the spirits when he landed 7th in the Chrono d'Arenberg earlier in the season. Stavrakakis is only 24 years old, so he will have another year targeting U25 competitions, and we are likely going to see his calender fit this to the best. We still see Kortsidakis and Karatzios as the stronger one-day riders, but Stavrakakis will join them as our leader.
Aimiliano Vila
4>Max
25yo
CLv1
€50.000
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The development of Vila has been slow and steady throughout the seasons. He has gathered a lot of experience from attacking the races from the front, while also observing Koretzky as a lead role, and Kastrantas as the luxury domestique. Vila is somewhere in between, and will need to show regular results in the upcoming season. If he does, it is very likely that development measures will be further invested with him.
Anastasios Koumpetsos
3>4
26yo
Hills
€50.000
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Koumpetsos is a strong allround rider with a huge engine. He has developped well in particular going up hills. This will lead him to become a vital rider in our attempt to target flat-ish hilly finishes where Coquard and Farantakis doesn't necessarily fare well. On long term he is seen as the primary leadout rider after Bouglas is likely to stop his career within a few seasons.
Pangiotis Christapopoulos
3>4
27yo
Stage Racer
€50.000
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Christapopoulos is a very exciting prospect who is turning out as one of the better Greek timetriallists in recent years. He's not quite as endurant as Vlatos, but he's a far better climber, which could see him targeting relatively easy TT GC races, where Vlatos might not be quite strong enough. Also he's a supreme TTT member, something we will look to improve on for next season.
Dimitrios Christakos
3>4
23yo
CLv1
€50.000
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A solid performance in the lower ranks leave us to believe that Christakos is developping every bit as we have hoped for. Christakos is a solid climbing domestique with a lot of resemblances to Mavrikakis, who have grown to be a regular top 25 Grand Tour rider. We see Christakos as a very solid lieutenaint-potential-rider who is also a solid breakaway rider. We believe he is ready to be a regular Pro Tour rider from the start of the upcoming season. Being only 23 years old we expect him to be noticed a lot in 2 seasons time.
Alexandros Agrotis
3>4
24yo
Stage Racer
€50.000
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We decided to put Agrotis on a subtle calender this season, as he struggled to complete races last season. This meant that we could see him develop in training and data sessions, and he has taken massive steps in the right direction. He is ready to be implemented to the regulard Pro Tour setup, and we can see him develop further into a great GC domestique. Agrotis have his last season as a U25 rider next season, so we will try to plan him in races where he can attempt to steal some points from that.
Alex Mengoulas
2>3
25yo
Fabian
€50.000
Fl
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Alex has been moving up the rankings at lower level with record speed. We are uncertain as to whether he would develop best by further adding on his succes, or if he is better of by riding with the strongest cobbler of our team. Regardless, we are very happy with his progression and could even see him developing into a rider with great resemblances to Stavrakakis.
Alexandros Matsangos
1>3
23yo
Cobble
€50.000
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Also Matsangos seems to improve drastically at lower levels. We do, however believe, that he's not quite ready for the big scene yet. He's not the typical future team leader, but he's very versatile so we are also looking into different future paths to develop him as good as possible. It might not be viable to have him as a subtop cobbler, if he can be a key domestique on multiple terrains.
Panagiotis Karatsivis
1>2
21yo
CLv2
€75.000
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One of the biggest talents in greek cycling history is developping nice and slow. We believe it's best to develop him step by step, and not implement him into a PT domestiques role anytime soon, as that would hinder his freedom to progress into that leader type we believe he will become. He has taken solid steps in the right direction, though.
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Outside of our regional focus we have a very solid core of riders developping into a pretty solid level. Some of these are likely to look elsewhere in their careers to seak out glory, but all are very welcome with us in the next couple of seasons!
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Victor Lafay
4>Max
26yo
CLv1
€50.000
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Victor is probably the single rider with the biggest output. Lafay is ready for the big scene, and could be a very important part of the transition from one hilly leader to another. We are looking forward to see if Lafay and Vila can complement eachother to get maximum effect. In particular in races where Koretzky isn't aiming for a top result.
Emmanuel Morin
4>Max
27yo
Hills
€50.000
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Morin has also taken massive steps, and is now one of the elite subtop puncheurs in the world. He has the proper engine for the long enduring one-day races, and the acceleration to make it count when he decides to move.
Joel Yates
4>Max
26yo
Hills
€70.000
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Similar to Morin, Yates have developped beatifully this season, and is ready for more. He can't quite match the acceleration of Morin, but he has an even bigger engine, and isn't shy to attack early to make the most of it. The duo could cause havoc if they are to ride together for the team next season, and the hilly department is now very very solid.
Jean Bosco Nsengimana
4>Max
30yo
Stage Racer
€50.000
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Jean Bosco has been a strong asset to the team, often being among the 3 front liners in hills and mountains, currently adding nicely to the lead of the Tour de France Team GC. The Rwandan rider has used our team to gather the last bit of experience to potentially make a more permanent career plan. We are happy to keep him for another 1-2 seasons though as he's greatly improving most GC setups we can possibly feat, aswell as adding a solid prologue. If he's to keep at our team, he's likely to join Ioannidis and Kiriakidis in their planning.
Lorenzo Delco
4>Max
27yo
Fighter
€50.000
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Much like Nsengimana, Lorenzo Delco has improved drastically. He is a very interesting fit, as he can be a vital domestique in every scenario, hence having been riding a very varied calender.
Joshua Kelly
4>Max
26yo
Allrounder
€50.000
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Kelly is a prime attacking rider, and with his decent finish he can win from attacks. Just like Nsengimana he does have a small hidden gem in his prologue, which makes him often end up in a decent position in GC races. Kelly is the rider who gathered the most points from all of our low-tier riders, and he's actually one of those with the most remaining racedays aswell. He will be battling Victor Lafay for most succesful domestique of the season.
Jay Vine
2>3
27yo
CLv1
€100.000
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Jay is away on loan, and is progressing well. He has a remarkable talent, and if he was greek he would be touted the biggest future star of Greece - Ever! When looking at prospects like Dion Smith, Jay Vine share great resemblances, and we can't wait for him to develop into that future KOM beast. We are currently planning on keeping him as our future replacement for Chiarello or whoever make a short term spell at our team to replace Chiarello.
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While the team is having an obvious bright future, we also have to look at the data that is less positive. A few of our riders have shown a tendency towards regress, which is a natural part of life, but is sad when it hits. We can't for sure read out of the data, that the riders are in fact on a decline, but the tendencies are clear and obvious - even if it does hit some of out most important riders.
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Clement Koretzky
Dec.
32yo
Puncheur
€450.000
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Clement has been with us since he popped up as a non-contracted free agent quite some years ago, and he has been leading our team in the hills since Simon Spilak left the team. Season by season he has moved up and taken on responsibility. This season has been all but pretty though, and while he has shown ups and downs in the past, nothing like this has been noted before. Last season he had his best season of his career - this he has been a shadow of his best. We do believe he is still capable of demonstrating more good seasons, but we are probably looking for the end of an era.
Panagiotis Vlatos
Dec.
32yo
Timetriallist
€135.000
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Vlatos share many similarities with Koretzky, but he has been rock steady for the past 5 seasons. There's clear downsides to this season despite the calender looking better for him than ever. As Vlatos is more of a one-dimensional rider than Koretzky it's more easy to spot the regress here. Vlatos is still very much capable of winning timetrials, and is a top TTT rider aswell, but the time where he was a serious top 5 GC threat is running out. Vlatos is very close to being the first ever greek rider to reach "Titan"-leven (3.000 points), and there's no doubt that he will reach that either this season or at the beginning of next season - and we see no reason not to prolong his contract.
Georgios Karatzios
Dec.
32yo
Cobbler
€115.000
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Karatzios popped up out of nowhere at a relatively late age, even winning a cobbled one day race last season - so it doesn't really come as a surprise to us, that he will fade away in a similar fashion. We believe it can be viable for the team to keep him as a free role cobbler and as part of the lead out train for another season though.
Georgios Bouglas
Dec.
32yo
Sprinter
€50.000
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The in-and-out rider Bouglas has been signed 3 times by his current team manager, and it seems obvious that they think alike in many aspects. Loyal sprinter Bouglas has never been a star rider, but he does what he does and help his teammates everywhere. Despite the lack of speed becoming increasingly obvious, it seems very likely that Bouglas will keep at the team for another season.
July isn't quite finished yet, but with the preview of Deutschland Tour already up, it seems like a good time to make the August forecast, and then wait a bit for the July break down. August is pretty interesting, as we have 4 different races, mostly calling for the qualities of Vlatos and Coquard, but both being top level quality it could be a decent month. Atleast in theory!
Races: Deutschland Tour Chrono des Herbiers Riga - Jurmala East Midlands Cicle Classic
Squads:
A lot of racedays was spent last season with 3 GC races, including the Tour de France. We are back to more modest racedays, which can hopefully increase the PPrD ratio. Deutschland is the only GC race with 5 stages, all well equipped to our riders qualities. The other 3 races are one day races.
Deutschland Tour
In the past this race was extremely complex and mostly suited for the GC riders. Over the years the race has gotten easier, and is now hardly a normal GC race. It's mostly one for the top tier timetriallists, and sprinters. Luckily we have both, but there is a few bumps that can bring our results to a bore if Vlatos isn't capable of staying with the group. This is an actual risk, but a gamble we have to take. Vlatos come here with solid experience as he has been a top 10 rider here for the past 4 consequtive seasons!
Bryan Coquard also have a good track-record in the race, being brought as a supplement rider for the flat stages. Last season he won 2 stages and the points jersey, and he should be looking to replicate that.
Looking at the route we have to expect a good result. Coquard have every chance in the world to showcase that he's among the top 3 sprinters in the world, take a couple of stagewins and maybe pick up the points jersey. Vlatos have a good shot at the top 10, and a bit of depth points from Ioannidis and Kiriakidis could be possible too, although this is in the minor points category.
Expected points: 170-220pts
Chrono des Herbiers
Similarly to Deutschland Tour, the Chrono des Herbiers is one for Vlatos, so we hope he has peaked his form well. He has been in top 7 for 6 consequtive seasons, being in the top 5 for the past 3 editions, so expectations are high. We have to go back all the way to 2015 to find a bad performance, where Vlatos and teammate Coppel both messed up the race to finish between 10-20th. Back then Vlatos wasn't fully maxed though, so there are no excuses to miss the top 10!
While Vlatos is a serious contender for a top 5, we don't really bring quality to target anything more. Ioannidis is a solid timetriallists, Nsengimana hardly, but we can't expect them to feature better than 30-50 in a specialized race like this.
Expected points: 75-125pts
Riga - Jurmala
Unlike the previous two races in which we have a rich tradition of succesful riding, we can't exactly say the same about the Latvian race from Riga to Jurmala. We have never ridden the race, and as such doesn't know what to expect. From the roadbook and resultlist of previous edition, we can conclude that it's a fairly uneventful flat one day classic race though, and we do have the perfectly suited rider for such an event in Bryan Coquard.
Unlike in Deutschland he comes here with his regular sprint setup with Bouglas, Kortsidakis and Karatzios, so we expect to see him do well.
In a race like this there's always a risk of things not turning out as planned, with a late attack or being boxed in, but we have all the quality needed to avoid those risks, and we do expect a fair amount of compatriots wishing for that sprint finish. We expect Coquard in the top 5, whether or not he can do better is always up to the daily form.
Expected points: 100-150pts
East Midlands Cicle Classic
While the first 3 races of the month suits us well on paper, the final one does not. The East Midlands Cicle Classic have been on the calender for many years, but we doesn't have the riders to perform, nor the history (even looking at Festina) to replicate a good result. We have to go back as far as 10 seasons to find a decent result here when loaned-in rider Filippo Pozzato got 6th. Kortsidakis, Karatzios and Stavrakakis are here to see what they can get out of the race.
Being a PTHC race this is very much a race we just need to ride to get it over with. The risk of getting away with 0 point is very real, although 10 points would be realistic.
Expected points: 5-30pts
Overall expectations:
It isn't the best of races for us, but we have chances everywhere to make something happen, as we ride with multiple options. So we will try to roll with the flow and see what kind of options arrive.
Three GC races in July was on the table, with the biggest one on the scene as one of them!
Races: Tour de France Tour of Lithuania Tour of Slovenia
Tour de France
We joined the Tour de France with an ambition of targeting the early stages from breakaways and the latter part with more endurant performances from Giannoutsos and Chiarello. We purposely decided not to bring a good TTT setup in order to free ourselves towards attacking. Bouglas had a marvellous performance early on almost stealing a stagewin.
But the biggest cheer came when Miltiadis used the breakaway opportunity on the very difficult stage 6 to claim the win. He joined the breakaway with Delco and played the passive game, when others wasted energy on the KOM battle. In the end he managed to get the upperhand, and left Barbio behind to be crowned as the rider of the day.
At one point he even looked likely to fight for the yellow jersey, but when the GC riders turned on the heat it immidiately became close, and finally the win was less than 1 minute apart from Morton, Herklotz etc.
Prioir to the TTT Victor Lafay had also enjoyed a day out, and picked a good amount of KOM points. Exactly enough to be tied in 1st place actually, but just not enough to wear the jersey!
The 2nd week was extremely dull for us, and while Giannoutsos tried a couple of times, we had to wait until the last 3 mountainstages, where Chiarello yet again showed that he's a brilliant 3rd week rider. Ever so slowly moving up in the GC, closing the gap on those ahead of him, he took 3rd on the stage 19, and then attacked for the big glory on stage 20. It seemed like a very bold move, but he chipped away time. In the end it was only Superman Herklotz that could follow, but he was also too strong, and unfortunately left Chiarello with a 2nd place, and no stagewins on this race.
He did however jump across to 8th in the GC to replicate his enjoyable Vuelta a España performance!
We came into the race expecting between 350-400 points, but ended up with 622, which was a very important dig away from the relegation pit we could elseway be sucked into.
Actual points: 622pts
Tour of Lithuania
In Lithuania we brought a fairly solid TTT setup in the banks of the Tour de France were multiple teams had decided to invest their efforts. It was a good decision as it kept our riders towards the front.
We had expected a good show from Farantakis aswell, but unfortunately it wasn't meant to be! Instead we managed to bring Koretzky into a brilliant position in the final stage aswell as Spanopoulos and Mavrikakis.
Koretzky joined forces with Sean De Bie to attack the front, and while he wasn't quite strong enough to win the stage, the duo was capable of holding off the charging riders coming from behind, which gave them a 10 seconds advantage aswell as the bonus seconds.
In the overall standings this mean 3rd place for Koretzky and due to awareness Spanopoulos and Mavrikakis also took a great GC in the outkirts of the 10th place. This also gave us our first Team GC win of the year.
Prior to the race we were uncertain as to what to expect and decided to set it at 70-100 points. Obviously this was beat in quite the manor, taking 287 points!
Actual points: 287pts
Tour of Slovenia
Last season Farantakis took his first ever professional stagewin in the Slovenian race. He doubled that amount in Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this season, but it was still a great chance for him here.
And he delivered, big time! Just one chance, but when Koretzky catapulted him into the lead there was no looking back, and he took the stage in style - aswell as the leaders jersey and the points jersey!
Our TTT performance wasn't great, but not terrible either, so with some clever riding Ioannidis and Kiriakidis could be in for a solid race. Koretzky took 2nd on the 3rd stage, which on paper was great, but unfortunately both our GC riders messed up, which was also countered by Spanopoulos who was a perfect fit for the race.
Because of this result we only had Koretzky to hope for, and while he was OK on stage 4, he was not part of the huge gaps in front of the race, and while our other GC riders also fell behind it was only a matter of getting the final stage over with.
We came with similar expectations as to Lithuania and the GC results would thus merely have been a bonus. Fortunately Farantakis and Koretzky did enough on the first 3 stages to keep us afloat!
Actual points: 112pts
Overall result:
We had an overall expectation in the span of 500-600 points going into the season, but both Lithuania and Tour de France came with positive surprises which left us shattering the expectations, even crossing the magical 1000 points barrier. We know that a lot of teams will cross that due to the abundance of points available at the Tour de France, but we feel somewhat confident that this will boost us away from the relegation zone, and maybe close to the PT top 10 once again!
Paris-Roubaix
Giro d'Italia
GP Liechtenstein
Veenendal - Veenendal
Amstel Gold Race
Rund um Köln
Vuelta a España
Scandinavian Open Road Race
W. Chiarello
M. Giannoutsos
A. Miltiadis
J. Nsengimana
L. Delco
J. Kelly
(I recognize Vlatos is not at that level relative to his division, but still.) Looking forward to seeing how the final numbers will shape up, especially if Koretzky and Coquard regress a little towards the mean.
Tour of Lithuania
Tour of Slovenia
East Midlands Cicle Classic
