For those of you with no time for shiny or detailed previews or focusing on other divisions, but want to make a quicker prediction of pure rankings or a little bit of text or stats, feel free to bomb this thread with predictions! It's all ll in good fun and even if it's from 5 minutes looking at a division and way off I know we all eat up any prediction content this time of year and would love to see it
I haven't got into the DB much yet but sure I'll do a few of my own soon
I did an exercise looking at the CT OVL figures. Unfortunately I posted it before I was supposed to and it was (rightly) taken down.
I was kindly sent the content but now when I post the format isn't working. If somebody wants to play around with it and see if they can sort it out I can send it!
Thanks for putting this thread up, jandal
I was going to post the 2022 Community Preview thread, asking for some predictions - but they can obviously all go here then
And for the really lazy ones who don't even want to create the divisions' tables on their own - here they are, feel free to use them, or to add a comments column, or whatever creative ideas you have
So with credit to Fab's format here is not 1 prediction, but 2. Projection 1 is the same method I did last year which just adds up the points I project for each rider. It is purely mechanical and no adjustment is made for team construction. So a team that is overinvested in one area won't be marked down.
It was reasonably accurate last year but there were only 14 teams and the average difference in projected points between teams was much bigger. So this year I would expect less accuracy.
Projection 2 is projection 1 modified at a high level for some patterns I saw last year. Mainly that punchy riders were overvalued, so those points are redistributed fairly broadly but with a bias to CO and TT.
Proj 1
Points
Proj 2
Points
Diff
1
1741
3
1621
-2
Jura GIANTS
2
1668
1
1698
1
Tafjord Kraft
3
1614
4
1590
-1
McCormick Pro Cycling
4
1584
8
1453
-4
Bianchi - Panerai
5
1519
7
1466
-2
Tryg - Gobyk
6
1501
5
1580
1
Caja Rural Cycling Team
7
1465
2
1652
5
BWT Hyundai N Cycling
8
1456
9
1399
-1
BNZ-Superhero Racing
9
1259
6
1468
3
Glanbia
10
1256
10
1396
0
Colombini-Adler Aalterpaint
11
1227
16
1008
-5
Le Creuset
12
1213
12
1174
0
Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller
13
1200
11
1354
2
Oktal Pharma - TotalTV
14
1141
13
1146
1
Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli
15
1139
14
1094
1
Bonduelle - Eesti Energia
16
1091
17
924
-1
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
17
965
15
1015
2
Staffbase - BHP
18
357
18
359
0
Podium Ambition
The two projections are pretty similar. Bianchi and Le Creuset have a lot of punchy riders, BWT doesn't, so those are the ones that move a lot.
Projection 1 is pretty consistent with Mac's numbers above, with Jura, Tafjord, McCormick and Tryg occupying 4 of the top 5 spots. Mac likes Caja, my approach likes Bianchi for the other spot. Although Caja is 6th and moves up into 5th in Projection 2 so definitely some consensus they are near the top of the new teams. In Projection 2 BWT jumps right up to 2nd but neither of the other approaches have them in the top 5.
I think if anyone deserves an early manager of the year vote it has to be Bjartne, he turned over a majority of the team, maintained a strong regional focus and put together a promotion ready squad that is solid on every terrain except TT (Mac 74?) . Not easy to do in one transfer season.
I think Bianchi is an interesting team because they have many riders with a chance to score moderate points. Not sure how a pure depth approach works in CT, in other divisions it seems like it is good for avoiding relegation but not as good for finishing on top.
Getting back to the projection, down at the bottom Podium Ambition are focusing on the ambition more than the podium this year. The next 3 lowest, Bonduelle, Staff Base and Bordeaux are consistent between projections. All 3 have pretty tight geographic focuses which requires a slower build.
Colombini's very top heavy structure gets more credit in my system than Mac's. I personally like that team because they remind me of McCormick 2019 with Dan Holloway in the Saber role. Perhaps they can challenge for our record of % of points scored by a single rider, although probably not, as the rest of the team is better than 2019 McCormick.
In the middle, Mac's math liked BNZ better, where I give his team higher points. Some of the biggest differences are with Pas Normal and Air New Zealand which are bottom third in my approach but outside promotion candidates for Mac. I think the difference with them, and also BNZ, is one-dimensional puncheurs like Besada, Vogt, Gunman and Watson, a rider type my Projection 1 doesn't like and Projection 2 discounted further but who have solid OVLs.
Of course this is my 4th season in CT, so what do I know?
This is my first time working on predictions and all is based on DB and not by the results from last season. I tried my best as I'm not the best in that kingd a work.
This year we have 24 teams at the PCT level. Two teams joined from PT level Amaysim Cervélo and Xero Racing and seven teams from CT level: Crabbe-CC Chevigny, Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team, HelloFresh - Lampre, Strava, Trans Looney Tunes, Volcanica - Fox and Zara - Irizar.
Prediction after the 2022 season (Based only on stats):
1. Voyagin - Bird
2. Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes
3. Carlsberg - Danske Bank
4. Amaysim Cervélo
5. Binance
6. Assa Abloy
7. Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
8. Minions - Subwoolfer
9. Philips - Force India
10. Red Bull Žalgiris
11. Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
12. Volcanica - Fox
13. Crabbe-CC Chevigny
14. Gjensidige Pro Cycling
15. Strava
16. Kraftwerk Man Machine
17. Xero Racing
18. Cedevita
19. Zara - Irizar
20. Indosat Ooredoo
21. Project: Africa
22. Trans Looney Tunes
23. HelloFresh - Lampre
24. Sauber Petronas Racing
Voyagin - Bird
Voyagin - Bird have three extremely good leaders. They will definitely be one of the best teams this season if all of their leaders catch the winning form. WIth PCT super star and at this moment the best hilly cyclist Tomohiro Kinoshita they will hope for lots of wins which they hoped will be added in mountains and in GC classification from Chen Shikai. In sprints their leader will be Jiankun Liu
Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes
Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes has their focus on mountain stages plus in GC and Cobbled races and in sprints. They will definitely have a big lack in hill and the top TT results. For the cobbled leader Joeri Stallaert is a question if he will have enough big support in his terrain as they have one one ‘’extra’’ good rider for the cobbled section for support. Samuele Menicucci can provide something but he will be too weak in the finish of cobbled races.
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Carlsberg - Danske Bank have extremely well covered all the terrains from leaders from mountain and GC classification, hilly stages, sprints to cobbled races.
Amaysim Cervélo
Amaysim Cervélo definitely covered all the important categories except the sprint. The manager managed to get the deal with the Mapei team and got Sam Bewley but will he have enough days to cover cobbled races and the flat stages or with sprint finish.
Binance
Binance’s main focus is in GC with Orluis Aular and Joao Rodrigues. With Paulinho in hilly stages and races and Blythe in cobbled terrain the will be definitely the contenders for high points. Only lack will be the high points in TT and on the top sprints as they have on those terrains Kaczmarek and Kennett as their leaders.
Assa Abloy
Assa Abloy definitely have a big potential in mountains and for GC races and their biggest ‘’weapon’’ will be TT with Yoann Paillot and Mario Gonzalez Salas and their stat on 80. At the cobbled races they definitely didn't focus as they have only one rider for this type of races. Their sprinter will definitely have a bit of a problem in sprints as they have only one pure sprinter and no big support from the team. They have a few riders with fast acceleration but will this be enough to win the race or a stage?
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska leaders Padun, Pluchkin and Prevar will need to put max effort in GC classification. The first two will be dangerous in mountains and Prevar in hilly stages. In a few points they will hop in sprints but their lack will be in cobbled races.
Minions - Subwoolfer
Minions - Subwoolfer they completely changed their strategy from catching the top places in stages or in one day races /classics to the GC. With an important deal with Zwift Pro Cycling they will definitely do fireworks with Mattia Cattaneo and his extremely good mountain and TT stats. Daniel Vesely will definitely be in points reach constantly at the flat stage finishes.
The only and the biggest problem that they have is how much minions are in their riders? Will they lose focus because of the popular food between cyclists? Banana and lost a few points because of this? We will see soon.
Philips - Force India
Philips - Force India they have a similar story as Minions - Subwoolfer. Their leader from last season Pierre Paolo Penasa got an even stronger co-leader for GC in Ki Ho Choi who is slightly weaker than Mattia Cattaneo from Minions - Subwoolfer. With Tiesj Benoot and Tom Van Asbroeck they have covered flat stages in sprints and hilly stages races and one day races. Their focus will definitely be in GC.
Red Bull Žalgiris
Red Bull Žalgiris is going on GC with Rafael Reis and similar plan as Minions - Subwoolfer and Philips - Force India. Reis is a bit weaker from Minions leader and slightly stronger from Philips leader. Manager definitely provided him with great support in TTT stages for GC competition. Kristoffer Halvorsen will be their leader in sprints but they have a lack in cobbled races which can’t be a big problem with great planning for GC leader.
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam got extra training on Domen Novak, another great cyclist in support or co-leader for GC races with Sam Oomen. Laurens De Plus will provide points from hilly stages or races with his backup mountain stat he can be good in harder hilly stages. They will hope for a few points on cobbled races but they will definitely score points in a sprint with Italian sprint leader Niccolo Bonifazio.
Volcanica - Fox
Volcanica - Fox another CT team who will hope for the best result in PCT level. Their biggest leader will be Jonas Ahlstrand in a sprints as one of the favorites. The changed Amador from last season for Quintana who is stronger and the will definitely hoped for the best results in GC competition. Chaves stayed another season with the team for the support in mountain races and as a leader in hilly stages.
Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Crabbe-CC Chevigny is the team who came from CT level. Their manager definitely changed strategy from last year as they were mostly focused on hill, cobbled races and sprint finishes. This year they definitely did a lot of changes but their biggest focus is in sprints with three sprinters. With Richard Antonio Carapaz they got strong cyclists for mountains and GC. Tsatevich who was their leader last year got a mission to support with Hagen their leader Sergey Chernetskiy with 79hi stat. Will this be enough to provide a good amount of points?
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team is the second team who joined PCT level from CT. They definitely build up their team for GC leader Timofey Kritskiy who is at the end of his career but still have a year or two before his potential really drops. Odd Christian Eiking is his leader on hilly terrain from last year and new sprint leader Sondre Holst Enger will have a stable support in the sprints.
Strava
Strava brought Romain Sicardfor the end of his career as he is slowly losing his power. Nacer Bouhanni will try to be constantly with his form in flat finishes for a sprints and two leaders in cobbled races in Gaday and Owen will try to score points for the team but with no extremely good hilly leader and in TT lack they can have a bit of a problem for next season. WIth one of the oldest teams in PCT their manager will need to make a big plan for next season and future.
Kraftwerk Man Machine
Kraftwerk Man Machine’s mission will be to provide enough support in GC classification for the Suranga Ranaweera who have good TT stats. They kept from last season Pello Bilbao as a hilly leader (79 stat). they can expect points from sprints but their lack will be in the cobbled races.
Xero Racing
Xero Racing covered mountain, hill and the sprints stages or races. A few points he can expect from the TT but his team will lack in cobbled cyclists.
Cedevita
Cedevita star or a leader for now is definitely Eduard Alexander Beltran but they have a bit of a lack in sprints and cobbled terrain. With their rising star Tadej Pogačar it would be great to stay at PCT level as they have a very young team and are prepared for Tadej’s ‘’strike’’ in the future. Beltran can provide results on hilly and mountain stages. His lack is TT for GC races who are having a ITT stage. In the TTT stages manager definitely provided great support in Groselj, Penko and Christodoulos.
Zara - Iriza
Zara - Irizar the last of the CT teams brought for their leader in GC Rein Taaramäe like some other GC leaders in PCT level who are losing his power due to age. They will hope for the best performances from second leader Fabio Jakobsen in a sprint for points. Their problem will be lack in hilly and cobbled stages or races.
Indosat Ooredoo
Indosat Ooredoo definitely changed the strategy from last year as they had covered all terrains except the cobbled races. This year their leader is Dunbar whose main stat is in TT but in less harder GC races with TT involved he can be extremely dangerous for top places but with good planning. With Bruno Borges and Leigh Howard they have covered hilly stages and sprints in flat stages.
Project: Africa
Project: Africa leader Natnael Berhane will be definitely brought point at gom from Mountain stages the only problem is his TT stat for GC classification. They sell their best hilly cyclist and the will hope on good form from Amanuel Gebrezgabihier in hilly stages or one day races and Elias Afewerki in flat stages with sprints.
Trans Looney Tunes
Trans Looney Tunes their hopes will definitely be in hilly stages and cobbled races. The team and special manager will hope that all three leaders Marc Christian Garby (mountains), Zico Waeytens (hills) and Kenneth Vanbilsen (cobbled races) will find a good or great form compared to last year's forms as they were in different teams. If they won’t get into great form the team will be in big trouble to be relegated in CT level. WIth their extreme average age they will definitely need to completely change the team. Can the miracle happen and save them for one more year of losing PCT status?
HelloFresh - Lampre
HelloFresh - Lampre definitely focused on cobbled races and sprints compared to last year in CT level as they had covered all the terrains except the TT. They will definitely score a lot of points in sprints and cobbled races. As they have the strongest mountain cyclist Kenny Elissonde and hill cyclist Xandro Meurisse in stats 78 and 77 it will be hard to expect a miracle but let's wait as they can provide a miracle and stay in PCT level.
Sauber Petronas Racing
Sauber Petronas Racing have Tejay Van Garderen whose career is going close to the finish as he started to get a bit weaker from last year. From last year they lost important cyclist for GC races in Suranga Ranaweera and they will hope for the best results from mountain stages from Pomoshnikov and Frankiny. They don't have a top cobbled cyclist but he can provide a few points but they will have a problem in sprints as they don't have any extremely good sprinter. Can we expect the miracle that they will stay in PCT level?
Hi there, another lazy/busy wizard here with a short little CT prediction. I went with two approaches. The first is the ultimate lazy one: I sorted the excel file by AVG and then by team and went on to give every team a gut feeling score between 0 and 10. This is with regards to points scoring potential, so 10 is basically top scoring potential in every race they enter, 0 would be virtually zero chance at any points. Here's what happened:
Rank
Team
Score
1
Jura GIANTS
9,1
2
McCormick Pro Cycling
8,8
3
BNZ-Superhero Racing
7,4
4
Tafjord Kraft
7,2
5
Tryg - Gobyk
7,0
6
Caja Rural Cycling Team
6,6
7
Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller
6,3
8
Colombini-Adler Aalterpaint
6,2
9
BWT Hyundai N Cycling
6,1
10
Oktal Pharma - TotalTV
5,8
11
Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli
5,6
12
Glanbia
5,5
13
Le Creuset
4,7
14
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
4,6
15
Bianchi - Panerai
4,5
16
Bonduelle - Eesti Energia
4,4
17
Staffbase - BHP
4,2
18
Podium Ambition
3,5
Some clear tiers emerged. A very distinct 1-2, then a similarly clear 3-5. Then 6 through 12 without any major gaps, then 13 to 18.
While doing that, I had the idea to go a bit further, slightly more analytical. So I decided to look at last year's CT rankings as a tool for projecting 2022 points. What I did was average the individual ranking points of the Top 3, as well as places 4-8 and 9-15 of each terrain:
Stage Racers
Puncheurs
Time Trialists
Cobblers
Sprinters
1-3
453
308
303
396
350
4-8
284
180
113
199
265
9-15
198
110
50
102
156
As you can see, stage racers are the most valuable in terms of points, then top end cobblers, then sprinters. Time trialists are the worst value when you look at depth, while the top end is kinda distorted by the huge seasons Cosnefroy and Thomas had.
I took out Jakobsen and Kump out of the sprinters calculation since I don't think there's anyone in this year's CT who has the potential to repeat Jakobsen's freak year, and there's no Kump type who can also score in hilly classics either (Saber can make a case with his cobbles, but more on that below). With them, I think the calculation would have been skewed too much towards the top.
Then, I went through each rider specialization and assigned points to 2022 riders. For instance, I rated Boasson Hagen, Boswell and Moscon as the top 3 puncheurs, so Tafjord, McCormick and JURA were each assigned 308 points, and so on. Each rider was only eligible in one category, with the exception of Saber, who was valued in both sprint and cobbles. Not sure if that's the best way to go, but he has the potential to go haywire, so maybe it's justified. Finally, I assigned a subjective "depth points" value, based on the scoring potential of a team's riders that had not been accounted for in the Top 15s. This could range from 150 to 450 points.
Of course, this methodology is based on how well I'm able to predict the order of riders in terms of scoring within each discipline. Also, the CT calendar has changed quite a bit, so it's debatable how much predictable power the previous year has. But still, it was a fun exercise, and here are the results:
Rank
Team
Score
1
Jura GIANTS
1726
2
McCormick Pro Cycling
1724
3
BWT Hyundai N Cycling
1648
4
BNZ-Superhero Racing
1570
5
Tryg - Gobyk
1527
6
Tafjord Kraft
1400
7
Colombini-Adler Aalterpaint
1392
8
Oktal Pharma - TotalTV
1308
9
Caja Rural Cycling Team
1301
10
Glanbia
1193
11
Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller
1084
12
Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli
1070
13
Bonduelle - Eesti Energia
732
14
Bianchi - Panerai
729
15
Staffbase - BHP
722
16
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
690
17
Le Creuset
630
18
Podium Ambition
392
One ranking did not influence the other, but they're still very similar. The same two at the top, but much closer to the rest. BWT is the biggest difference, jumping from 9th in my subjective ranking to third in the projections. That's mostly on the strength of TT and cobbles, which I apparently didn't take into account a whole lot before.
BNZ, Tryg and Tafjord are still in the promotion race here, Caja Rural a bit lower (6th to 9th), as is Pas Normal Studios (7th to 11th). The bottom tier is exactly as before, and with the same significant gap to 12th place, too. Podium Ambition is I think a good bit too low in these projections, but I just didn't find the points, to be honest.
I'm very curious how this will stack up against the actual rankings. I have no idea about the total points available and how it will be distributed among a lot more teams now.
...using the "conglomerate preview" QCA scoring system without potentially necessary adjustments (the system allows for more fluidity in race choice to included and thus penalizes weak terrains less than it should do in PT)
...using the presets by Nemolito
...did not receive a comprehensive analysis as the PCT one did
...is not adjusted by gut feeling
PT scores
Mon
Hil
Spr
Cob
TTs
Hyb
Score
Aegon - Peroni
7
9
4
4
2
3
52.75
Aker - MOT
3
6
2
9
8
10
60.5
cycleYorkshire
9
1
4
6
6
6
52.75
n/a De Stijl Cycling
7
4
7
2
3
5
48.25
Duolingo
5
4
3
3
8
6
45
EA Vesuvio
6
4
6
1
9
6
51.75
ELCO - ABEA
5
6
10
3
7
3
57.5
Evonik - ELKO
10
10
1
4
1
4
62
Gazelle
8
9
0
4
1
7
56.5
Grieg-Maersk
2
2
1
9
9
7
50.25
Huski Chocolate
3
4
8
8
1
3
49.25
ISA - Hexacta
4
4
10
1
2
5
48.25
Isostar - Specialized
8
2
9
7
8
7
62.25
King Power
4
8
3
6
4
9
54
Los Pollos Hermanos
2
5
4
4
10
2
45
MOL Cycling Team
9
6
3
5
2
6
53.5
Moser - Sygic
9
9
3
1
2
3
55
Polar
7
2
2
4
9
2
46.25
Team Puma - SAP
9
6
5
1
9
9
63.5
Team UBS
7
5
0
4
7
1
45.75
Tinkoff - La Datcha Team
4
6
5
5
8
2
47.75
Zwift Pro Cycling
2
8
1
1
1
7
39.25
That leads to a final pridiction that includes clear candidates at the top and bottom with a very level field especially all the way from 5 to 21, though with small breaks after #6 and #12.
I would be hugely surprised if we end up 5th in the PT. I can't see a scenario where that is even realistic - But I'm happy to see others think we can do that well. But I guess when scoring +1 SPR compared to Isostar it's the math behind that isn't quite uptodate
Think this prediction overrates me a bit. Think it's gonna be a two team battle at the top and then a bunch of teams that could compete for the final podium spot / top 5. Thanks for the predictions!
SotD wrote:
I would be hugely surprised if we end up 5th in the PT. I can't see a scenario where that is even realistic - But I'm happy to see others think we can do that well. But I guess when scoring +1 SPR compared to Isostar it's the math behind that isn't quite uptodate
Key to giving you a 10 is that you have a great 2nd option in Farantakis, that will massively score in PTs (assuming he rides 2) as they are perfectly set for sprints this year. Also I think with good planning and learning from mistakes last year Coquard could (or should if well planned) score similar to Gaviria, but that's a lot down to PCM behaviour.
Nemolito wrote:
Hoping not to finish 21st, but definitely a possibility
You see it's very close down there, and if I would've adjusted by gut feeling I probably would've raised the prediction for you 1-2 spots. A lot will depend on whether you can get something out of Munoz in the GTs, if he "Romans" his way you should be able to go for midtable, if not then you are pretty doomed imo.
Thanks a lot for all those predictions! I like all CT ones except Ulrich's second one obviously
Maybe I'll come up with some numbers as well, but I'm currently on vacation and have limited MG time
I'll very likely do a community preview for CT and PCT again; however, as far as I see there's only one (numeric) prediction for PT so far, so it'd be nice to get some more in for the top dogs
I'll probably not have the time to do it until the end of (MG) January, so don't hesitate to keep bombing this thread
@cunego59 - I appreciate you trying to say our rating in your prediction was too low, however i'm firmly expecting a new record in low scoring. Frankly if we don't set more disappointing records this year i'll be quite upset
@croatia - Given we won't be on the podium much if at all, there'll be lots of #ad this year
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
