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Baltic Chain Tour - Discussion
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 10-01-2022 00:29
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As expected the leader doesn't sprint. AI is broken without interference.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 10-01-2022 05:15
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Somewhat happy to see us form a train but no point doing it when Jakobsen is left to fight for his own with 700m to go... Need to be more organized as 10th isn't good enough.
Great report though and looking forward to the rest of the race!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 21:14
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| redordead |
Posted on 10-01-2022 07:01
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Well that's that. Hopefully Saber tries to sprint in the other 3 stages.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 10-01-2022 08:15
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Krieger did a really nice sprint, coming from that far. Looking forward to the rest of the race! 
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
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| MacC |
Posted on 10-01-2022 08:24
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All I can say is that I'm glad Meyer seemed to be our lead sprinter. If he keeps trying and gest lucky one day he might get some GC points
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 10-01-2022 08:30
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Classics Specialist
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18th is one of Manninen's better sprint results of the season, so I am definitely a happy manager.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 10-01-2022 09:49
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It's not ideal that taking the GC lead has to be considered something negative  Still, on its own, obviously a good stage for us. Almost perfect positioning from Silvestre, would have been great to take the stage win but Coutinho is a fine rider, so second is okay. Kemboi at the Giro showed that it's not strictly impossible that the GC leader participates in the sprint, but too many examples to indicate that that won't happen tomorrow. So, time to relax for a day and hope to be in a position to retake the GC lead at a more opportune time.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-01-2022 09:53
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Grand Tour Champion
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Vesely has had far worse sprints but once again a promising position with 300 meters is ruined by fading away...
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| quadsas |
Posted on 10-01-2022 11:21
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Small Tour Specialist
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Croatia14 wrote:
As expected the leader doesn't sprint. AI is broken without interference.
This 'theory' has already been disproven this season, but k.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 10-01-2022 11:41
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Tour de France Champion
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cunego59 wrote:
It's not ideal that taking the GC lead has to be considered something negative Still, on its own, obviously a good stage for us. Almost perfect positioning from Silvestre, would have been great to take the stage win but Coutinho is a fine rider, so second is okay. Kemboi at the Giro showed that it's not strictly impossible that the GC leader participates in the sprint, but too many examples to indicate that that won't happen tomorrow. So, time to relax for a day and hope to be in a position to retake the GC lead at a more opportune time.
I think there's a big difference between what we've seen in the Giro, and some other longer mountain/hill dominated races, and what we see here or in the other recent sprint events.
And that's primarily, in the Giro, the game is smart enough to not recognised Kemboi as the teams "GC Leader" and only as "Sprinter". Therefore it's a different AI pattern we see play out that keeps him consistently in the contest despite the Pink Jersey.
Take that against Saber here especially, who with the CB stat, is definitely viewed by the game as "GC Leader" for Cedevita. I expect we'll see a similar performance for Silvestre who will also be "GC Leader" for yourself, because the game knows this is a race for Sprinters to win GC. As such the "Sprinter" tag is less used here by the AI and we'll see more of the up-down-lottery racing.
Granted this is an unproven theory, but i've been trying to get my head around what is actually going on with sprinting. I feel this idea of "GC Leader" tag vs "Sprinter" tag based on the overall race profile goes a long way to explaining the significant up-down-lottery and disappointments seen here, in Barbados, Juarez and Qatar amongst others.
This idea doesn't apply to classics or stages within a race like the Giro where the tag's work better, and our issue is more the classic 'AI can't do trains like a human' and 'inflation' and 'AI hasn't updated to match new game engine changes, leaving riders isolated too early/best position is behind the favourite'.
Downside here is we can't fix these issues (apart from Inflation, but not going into that here), but we need to have a conversation soon about what we do going forwards to try and re-balance sprinting.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 10-01-2022 12:17
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quadsas wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
As expected the leader doesn't sprint. AI is broken without interference.
This 'theory' has already been disproven this season, but k.
Do you have examples in mind other than the Giro? Because I had the same thought as TMM with regards to Kemboi there in contrast to Saber here or many other sprinters in races where sprinters go for the GC. And if that's the case, there are ideas to fix that, like say adding a big mountain stage at the end of the race (not being run of course, just to trick the AI). Obviously there would have to be tests if this has other consequences, the AI is an unpredictable beast. But the way it is now certainly feels unsatisfactory, at least in part.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 10-01-2022 12:34
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cunego59 wrote:
quadsas wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
As expected the leader doesn't sprint. AI is broken without interference.
This 'theory' has already been disproven this season, but k.
Do you have examples in mind other than the Giro? Because I had the same thought as TMM with regards to Kemboi there in contrast to Saber here or many other sprinters in races where sprinters go for the GC. And if that's the case, there are ideas to fix that, like say adding a big mountain stage at the end of the race (not being run of course, just to trick the AI). Obviously there would have to be tests if this has other consequences, the AI is an unpredictable beast. But the way it is now certainly feels unsatisfactory, at least in part.
Not in PCT tours, but in PT tours that hasn't been a problem (if you want the clearest example that would be Qatar, where Gaviria took 2nd in a mass sprint wearing yellow). I don't think that's a yellow jersey issue. Plenty of great sprinters who haven't done well in a tour just take days off. I think stages have a lot to do with it, there has to be something that makes the AI tick, because sometimes everything looks great, sometimes it doesn't.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 10-01-2022 12:35
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Agree with TMM and Cunego, Kemboi isn’t considered a GC rider for obvious reasons so is allowed to participate in sprints at the giro regardless of GC lead. Is the same in other races that aren’t purely flat. And also a massive shame that being well placed is such a curse! I hated going into the last stage of Juarez with Howard leading the GC because it’s a death sentence - and of course he didn’t sprint so lost the lead. It feels strange hoping your riders do well, but not *too* well in these races. The cobbled prl seems to have helped here as this stage seemed normal enough.
Edit: and no quadsas, it’s significantly worse this season. Sprint AI has always been pretty inconsistent (hence most people steering clear from building sprint-oriented teams) and top riders have just decided they couldn’t be bothered before, but not like this. This is so much worse. At this point, the best strategy would be just having one or two 78-79sp 50k riders in your team to work off others trains. Renewing a sprinter like Howard next season for ~$300k would be plain stupid, let alone a more expensive and better one sbut I’m sure we’ll work something out before next year.
Edited by Eden95 on 10-01-2022 12:40
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 10-01-2022 12:42
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Also good to see Howard so something. Congrats to scouting o and team and thank you very much for the report 
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 10-01-2022 13:07
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Classics Specialist
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quadsas wrote:
cunego59 wrote:
quadsas wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
As expected the leader doesn't sprint. AI is broken without interference.
This 'theory' has already been disproven this season, but k.
Do you have examples in mind other than the Giro? Because I had the same thought as TMM with regards to Kemboi there in contrast to Saber here or many other sprinters in races where sprinters go for the GC. And if that's the case, there are ideas to fix that, like say adding a big mountain stage at the end of the race (not being run of course, just to trick the AI). Obviously there would have to be tests if this has other consequences, the AI is an unpredictable beast. But the way it is now certainly feels unsatisfactory, at least in part.
Not in PCT tours, but in PT tours that hasn't been a problem (if you want the clearest example that would be Qatar, where Gaviria took 2nd in a mass sprint wearing yellow). I don't think that's a yellow jersey issue. Plenty of great sprinters who haven't done well in a tour just take days off. I think stages have a lot to do with it, there has to be something that makes the AI tick, because sometimes everything looks great, sometimes it doesn't.
I reported on Qatar, and if you want to use Gaviria as an example you might look at all the other stages and how he (didn't) perform in yellow. When he finished second it was also after not treating the stage as a sprinter at all, rather staying in a good GC position and then still sprinting ahead most of the riders who blew themselves up even harder than usual.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 10-01-2022 13:12
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Tour de France Champion
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quadsas wrote:
Not in PCT tours, but in PT tours that hasn't been a problem (if you want the clearest example that would be Qatar, where Gaviria took 2nd in a mass sprint wearing yellow). I don't think that's a yellow jersey issue. Plenty of great sprinters who haven't done well in a tour just take days off. I think stages have a lot to do with it, there has to be something that makes the AI tick, because sometimes everything looks great, sometimes it doesn't.
I've just got to pick up on Gaviria in Qatar.
Wins Stage 2 after the opening Prologue and takes the GC lead. He does this based off being on the ISA train of Degenkolb (finishes 9th, Kemboi the other train finishes 8th) and coming around in the final 200m (classic PCM18/20 sprinting!).
And you are correct, on Stage 3 Gaviria finishes 2nd in the Yellow jersey, But please have a look at this screenshot and tell me this is a working sprint 
It's also worth nothing for this Stage 3, Jonas Ahlstrand entered in 4th GC as the best sprinter behind Gaviria, and he only finishes 18th having been not following properly.
We move onto Stage 4, GC Leader Gaviria, finishes 19th! He's a mile off competing for the stage. Although in fairness i concede this wasn't a great sprint heavily weather effected as Holloways train deposits him & Groenewegen outfront at 800m to be passed by 5 other riders. But Gaviria maintains the GC lead.
Stage 5, GC Leader Gaviria, finishes 18th. The ISA train blows the sprint wide open for Degenkolb to be passed late on. Gaviria not even competing in the second sprinter group for the low Top10 positions. 2nd place GC Luke Rowe is even worse down in 35th, and 3rd GC Kemboi is only 15th.
Final Day, Stage 6. Gaviria needs to sprint for the Win to truly defend his lead... 9th after letting other sprints go away before launching himself very late. 2nd GC Groenewegen was only 12th, 3rd GC Rowe was 16th.
We have 4 Stages with Gaviria in the GC Lead. He gets one 2nd, a 19th, an 18th and a 9th. And his 2nd is not a result of competing like a normal sprinter, but more works out as a result of another AI issues on that day.
Selected other GC top3 riders on the next day get 18th, 35th, 15th, 12th and 16th.
Every single one of these results is worse than when there were sprinting from a GC position outside the Top3.
Coquard our Stage 6 winner and Race Winner, started that day in 8th. Grosu, 2nd Stage 6 and 3rd Overall, started that day in 9th. This pattern is repeated across the same stages. In fact only Kemboi also got a Stage Podium from a Top5 GC position, once.
And here in Baltic - Saber we know entered Stage 2 in the GC lead for 16th on the stage. Bush who does have some sprint skill, 2nd GC, 27th in the sprint. Van Asbrock 4th GC, 12th in the stage.
It's the same pattern i've shown occurred in Qatar (mins the other AI issue for Stage 3). Will be watching all 4, Saber/Silvestre/Bush/Van Asbrock (maybe even Halvorsen also) on Stage 3 here to see what we get.
Ok this got way longer than intended  But sprinting this year (and last, as a lot of the issues are the same) is genuinely interesting to me because of how wildly different they work vs PCM15 and vs other terrains. And also just to show when i suggest a theory or put forwards an idea i am properly researching and basing it on game results.
Edited by TheManxMissile on 10-01-2022 13:19
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 11-01-2022 03:25
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Team Leader
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Well we got the only real train together so it would have been nice to be properly rewarded but I’m pretty happy with a 4th there from Jakobsen. He’s definitely got an opportunity to get another big result for us here!
Thank you for the report! The finale is very well covered and what a line of riders that was at the end there
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 11-01-2022 05:57
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What a mess
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"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| redordead |
Posted on 11-01-2022 06:46
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We can't afford to do this anymore. Need two good results on the final two stages otherwise this race will be a failure despite the great victory in the prologue 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 11-01-2022 08:21
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Nice victory for Krieger! 
He was almost last after the prologue, now already in 9th spot.
I feel a bit sorry for the teams of the best sprinters. Really strange how these sprints work out. I have more success with a lower tier sprinter in C1 than with my best sprinter in C2 
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
