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Baltic Chain Tour - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 07-01-2022 22:37
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Directeur Sportif
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Thanks once again to Cunego for the preview. I will be posting reports.
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Baltic Chain Tour
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Preview
On the heels of the Barbados Cycling Festival and the Circulo de Juarez, we have the next stage race for PCT (and CT) sprinters. It’s the multi-national Baltic Chain Tour!
For the most part, the race is shaped like any other sprinter stage race: four fairly straight-forward flat stages. Stage five features some hills, which could provide an opportunity for more punchy types, but previously this has gone to the sprinters as well.
The one unique feature is the prologue: It’s just 3 kilometers long, but almost half of that is covered in tough cobblestones. Last year, we saw a pure cobbler win it with  Altur taking yellow for a day, but previously, it’s gone more to hybrid riders with strengths both on cobbles and the time trialing bike. Prologue specialists without any cobblestone skills will leave empty-handed. Bonus seconds for sprinters will be enough that one of them will win the whole thing in the end, but the seconds gained and lost on day one could be crucial in deciding who does.
| Sprinter | FL | SP | AC | RS | PR | CO | Leadout | FL | SP | AC |  Kennaugh | 77 | 82 | 81 | 71 | 63 | 58 | Kennett | 75 | 79 | 78 |  Howard | 76 | 82 | 79 | 70 | 68 | 63 | Page | 75 | 78 | 79 |  Manninen | 74 | 81 | 80 | 75 | 76 | 58 | | | | |  Vesely | 73 | 81 | 80 | 68 | 57 | 57 | Hodeg | 72 | 79 | 78 |  Saber | 75 | 81 | 79 | 72 | 70 | 76 | | | | |  Silvestre | 78 | 80 | 81 | 71 | 77 | 56 | | | | |  Cullaigh | 73 | 80 | 81 | 70 | 67 | 72 | Bar | 76 | 76 | 74 |  Jakobsen | 74 | 80 | 80 | 73 | 69 | 73 | Ovsyannikov | 72 | 77 | 76 |  Halvorsen | 76 | 80 | 80 | 71 | 68 | 70 | Räim | 74 | 76 | 75 |  Nelson | 71 | 80 | 80 | 63 | 71 | 63 | Meyer | 71 | 79 | 74 |  Guarnieri | 74 | 80 | 78 | 73 | 73 | 62 | Coutinho | 72 | 79 | 80 |  Van Asbroeck | 75 | 80 | 78 | 72 | 74 | 74 | | | | |  Selig | 71 | 79 | 81 | 68 | 65 | 63 | McEvoy | 70 | 75 | 79 |  Krieger | 71 | 79 | 79 | 74 | 55 | 63 | Liepins | 73 | 78 | 79 | | Aberasturi | 74 | 79 | 78 | 71 | 75 | 57 | Major | 74 | 77 | 78 |
Plenty of top sprinters are on the start list here and few come alone. Kennaugh should be considered as the top favorite for the flat stages, no one matches his combination of sprint, acceleration and flat stat. Howard has the pure speed to compete, but not quite the same acceleration. Both have terrific leadouts in Kennett and Page, respectively.
Manninen has yet to recapture his magic from last year, when he went from great result to great result. Silvestre has kind of taken that role so far this season and surely wants to continue that way. Both should feature prominently, both come without a dedicated leadout, and they stand out for an additional reason: They’re very strong prologue riders.
However, the pure prologue stat doesn’t matter all that much, as we’ve discussed. In fact, both finished outside of the Top 100 last year, losing 19 and 15 seconds, respectively. Vesely even lost 34 seconds, finishing second-to-last. He might have to be content fighting for stage wins, though he is certainly a strong contender for those. (For what it’s worth, Kennaugh is a similarly poor prospect for day one, though ever so slightly better as a prologue rider, and as a pure sprinter, too.)
The most likely guys to benefit from the prologue are instead Saber, also a top contender for stage wins of course, as well as 2017 winner Van Asbroeck and Jakobsen.
The Dutch is also one of three very strong sprinters who are competing for the white jersey, alongside Cullaigh and Halvorsen. Barely anything separates them, they’re very well rounded, each of them has the slightest of edges on the various secondary stats. Should be a very interesting battle to watch, and they’re also of course very well capable of interfering in the fight for yellow.
In the final third of the list, we have riders who we might consider less complete: Nelson has terrible resistance which could trouble him if things get tough in the final kilometres. Guarnieri and Van Asbroeck lack acceleration – though again, he could be in a great position after the prologue -, and all of Selig, Krieger and Aberasturi don’t have the absolute top speed of some of the other favourites. Still, it would not be shocking to see them compete at least for podium places – but it wouldn’t be shocking either to see them outside of the Top 10 more often than not.
I’ve named a few of the leadouts and we could go through them individually, but only time will tell which of those will be relevant at all. It would be highly unusual to see more than three, or at most four teams with dedicated trains in the final kilometer, and at first glance, Binance, Indosat and Minions – with Hodeg – are the most likely candidates. But other constellations are certainly possible. The only team without a decent sprint contender is Tajford Kraft, who have to hope for breakaway appearances or a major surprise by  Schorn.
| FL | CO | PR | | FL | CO | PR | | Zepuntke | 72 | 82 | 65 | Manakov | 77 | 75 | 70 | | Altur | 75 | 82 | 63 | Van Asbroeck | 75 | 74 | 74 | | Fenn | 72 | 79 | 63 | Edmondson | 73 | 74 | 74 | | Owen | 73 | 78 | 64 | Jakobsen | 74 | 73 | 69 | | Bush | 74 | 78 | 62 | Stavrakakis | 72 | 72 | 73 | | Sweeck | 73 | 76 | 71 | Räim | 74 | 71 | 74 | | Saber | 75 | 76 | 70 | Nechita | 73 | 70 | 75 | | Matthews | 72 | 75 | 74 | Cataford | 74 | 67 | 79 |
As mentioned before, Altur was able to win the prologue last year, but Zepuntke’s 29th place proved that elite cobblestone skills alone don’t guarantee success. It remains to be seen what the likes of Fenn, Owen and Bush can do as above-average cobblers without a particular inclination for prologues.
Typically, the stage is more suited for guys like Sweeck, Saber and Matthews, who won it in 2018. If he could do it, Manakov, Van Asbroeck and Edmondson have to be considered strong contenders as well. Everyone else on the list probably has outsider chances at best. Cataford is the lone prologue specialist who might do something noteworthy with his okay-ish cobble stat, he cracked the Top 20 last year.
An interesting five days lay ahead of us. How important will the prologue be and who will take it? Who will prove to be the most consistent sprinter and take the GC? Will the yellow jersey curse continue? The answers for all that and more will be revealed soon!
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Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 07-01-2022 23:07
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World Champion
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Feels weird not to be here after winning this race twice. But yeah, we've definitely used up our sprint lottery luck.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| MacC |
Posted on 07-01-2022 23:55
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
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Cobblestones!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 21:49
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 08-01-2022 00:04
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Grand Tour Specialist
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I wonder how the AI will handle this race after the prologue? I think it’ll work well with the first stage not being a regular road stage - the ‘best’ sprinters won’t waste a day pretending to be GC riders and not sprinting. Still plenty of other opportunities to not sprint though 
Howard did well in Mexico, but still only competed 2/5 stages. Just hoping he tries here.
Thanks for the preview!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 08-01-2022 06:20
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Tour de France Champion
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No Ewan here, so hopefully Aberasturi can pick up the outsider role and get a good result!
If not we need a good Stage 1 as we've stacked up potential winners with both good Prologue riders and good Cobblers.
No pressures here, just time for some fun racing.
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| MacC |
Posted on 08-01-2022 09:37
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
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Didn't realise this, plan meet window
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| quadsas |
Posted on 08-01-2022 10:18
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
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Will this finally be the season we can win one of our home races? nah
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 08-01-2022 10:41
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Grand Tour Champion
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Both Kalaba and Vesely don't really fit here. Kalaba is better on the prologue but will drown in the strong sprinter field, while Vesely will not be a GC contender but can (if he finally gets his act together) win stages. Eventually went for the latter with the hope the cobblestone squad can get someone high up in the GC after stage 1.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 08-01-2022 11:21
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Team Manager
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Hope Silvestre can continue his streak of good results here. The prologue won't help, but ideally he doesn't lose too much time and can recover with bonus seconds to get up in the GC.
Looking forward to the reports, 2 weeks without racing have felt really long after a busy March 
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| redordead |
Posted on 08-01-2022 15:21
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
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Important race for Saber. He was great here last year and we need a similar result again. Hopefully he does better in the prologue this time.
Thanks for the preview Cunego and Ulrich for picking up this race 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 09-01-2022 06:59
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
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Someone needs to check Sabers doping control after that
I'll take 4 in the Top15. Now on to seeing if Aberasturi can get some good dice rolls
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 09-01-2022 07:05
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Congrats to Cedevita! Good win for Saber.
Good that Howard lost 15s, so no wasted stage being considered a GC rider tomorrow. He’ll probably just be a lead out for Silvestre again but here’s hoping he can do something. Gani in 6th is a great result for him too.
Thank you very much for the report!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| redordead |
Posted on 09-01-2022 08:41
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
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Wow  Now that's what you call an improvement 
Saber's overrated cobble stat finally comes in handy That was quite a ride, I definitely didn't expect a win. Was just hoping to gain some significant time on the other sprinters. Job well done
Still a long way to go in this race. We've seen riders disappear after winning stage 1 in these sprint races. I expect Saber won't sprint tomorrow and lose the leader's jersey. So then stages 3-5 are where he needs to do enough to stay within the top GC spots. But we got a good chunk of our expected points today so hopefully we do well enough to fulfill our pre race quota. I have doubts whether we can win the team classification after today, but 2nd and 3rd place in U25 is a nice bonus
That's his first win since I bought him last year. I think he can be excused from those accusations even if his win was a bit of a surprise 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| MacC |
Posted on 09-01-2022 08:49
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
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Well, as expected-terrible. I can't really complain because I did have our 2 Cobblestones guys here. Can only for some sprinting luck.
Good luck all
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 09-01-2022 08:50
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Team Manager
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Wow, what a ride by Saber Congrats red!
Pretty happy with Silvestre, too. 39th with his terrible cobble skills is good. Except for Saber, no other sprinter is more than 4 seconds ahead, which is a decent position going into the flat stages.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 09-01-2022 09:27
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Directeur Sportif
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Wait what? Great win for Cedevita, I love it!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 09-01-2022 10:08
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Classics Specialist
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Great win for Cedevita, congratulations!
Thanks for the preview and first report, Ulrich. Looking forward to the sprint stages, hoping the smaller sprint field benefits Manninen.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 09-01-2022 10:16
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Grand Tour Champion
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A few cobblers high up in the GC, perhaps sending them wasn't a mistake after all.
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 09-01-2022 20:01
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2907
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Hehe, not surprised at all to see us finish last on the team ranking here
Let's hope Schorn can make up some ground on the next stages. Luckily didn't loose that much time, even though a podium for him in this field would be highly unlikely.
Thank you once again Ulrich and congrats Cedevita! |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 09-01-2022 21:30
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Team Leader
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Not a bad first stage for us. Thomas probably not quite as high as I would have liked but the cobble impact definitely didn’t help him.
Jakobsen not losing too much time either so he’s in a very decent position to ride for another strong GC result here. He’s shown great form in the last 2 sprinters races so I can only hope he continues that here!
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
