Welcome to the only PT race on South American soil, the Vuelta a Colombia. A staple of the MGUCI calendar since its inception in 2008, many of the very best climbers in all of cycling have written their names on the list of winners here. A few of them return, but we might very well see a new face on top of the podium. A repeat winner is not in the cards, that much is for certain, as Rein Taaramäe is not competing this year.
Profile
The Vuelta a Colombia is perhaps the single stage race on the calendar that values and rewards pure climbing prowess more than any other. No time trials, no hilly stages, just straight up unadulterated climbing. Three of the four mountain stages end with a mountain top finish as well, and none of them with an easy flat road to it either.
The fourth, while having the most total climbing kilometers, might be the least likely to cause big gaps between the favorites due to the long descent towards the finish. That also makes it the most attractive for attackers, and indeed in both previous editions, this stage has been won by a rider from the morning breakaway.
There are also two flat stages in there for the poor sprinters that have drawn the ire of their respective managers and have been sent here to suffer on the long climbs. One of them will be rewarded with one day in yellow as a consolation though, as we start the race on flat roads. But who’s here for the sprints anyway? (Well, some teams are and we’ll get to them, of course.) Let’s see which mountain goats compete for the GC:
The Top Four
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
AC
Lecuisinier
85
75
78
80
79
74
Dombrowski
84
75
80
78
78
75
Madrazo
84
75
80
79
80
71
Kudus
84
77
79
77
79
70
There’s a pretty clear first tier of contenders who, if everything goes as expected, should compete for the podium spots amongst themselves. Lecuisinier is the single best climber of the peloton here and the main favorite, but it won’t be an easy ride. Dombrowski is the quickest of the four, while 2016 winner Madrazo could make use of his slight advantage in recovery. South African Kudus meanwhile is the best puncheur, which could give him an edge on some of the steepest parts of the climbs.
Tier II
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
AC
Pluchkin
83
73
75
75
74
71
Wellens
82
75
79
80
76
68
Haig
82
74
76
75
78
73
Quintana
82
74
77
76
76
66
It still feels weird to talk about a Tier One and not have Pluchkin in it, but that’s the reality in the year 2021. While still an excellent climber, his age shows in his physical stats, which clearly lack behind the top favorites. It should be noted though that he won this race twice in 2018 and 2019 (one of only two two-time winners, Amador being the other), so historically, he likes this race for sure.
Wellens might have an argument to be the top rider in this group with his excellent backup stats. But Haig and Quintana are strong riders as well with hardly any weaknesses - though the Australian has the edge on others in terms of acceleration.
Tier III
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
AC
Oomen
81
75
78
77
78
69
Eastman
82
71
76
75
76
69
Galta
81
73
78
79
77
66
Berhane
81
75
77
74
73
68
Spilak
81
78
74
75
72
68
Shikai
81
71
74
76
78
66
Uran
80
72
72
78
72
68
Preidler
80
78
71
77
76
69
The boundaries between tiers are pretty fluid at this point, guys like Oomen or Eastman might feel slighted by this order, but be sure this tiering is just for clarity’s sake. Both of them could have a shot at the Top 5 if contenders ahead of them on paper falter. The same might be true for a rider like Galta with his strong stamina and resistance, but it gets progressively less likely as we continue down the list.
Still, for any rider in this tier, the Top 10 should be the goal, even if at best half of them, in all likelihood, will achieve it. Berhane and Spilak (the third rider in the peloton who has won this race before, in 2015), both lacking behind in resistance and recovery, will try to rely on their puncheur skills when things get uneven, similar to Preidler. Shikai and Uran on the contrary are pure climbers with solid resistance.
Fringe Contenders
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
AC
Arndt
79
76
77
76
72
75
Denifl
81
73
70
66
71
60
Bongiorno
79
75
77
77
77
69
Henao Montoya
80
69
72
76
72
70
Rodrigues
78
73
73
75
77
72
Pomoshnikov
79
74
78
76
74
66
Slagter
78
79
71
73
74
71
Frankiny
78
76
72
75
77
75
Garby
79
70
71
76
75
70
Aular
79
71
75
74
75
69
Karnulin
78
74
76
75
77
70
These are the guys we would not expect in the Top 10, but who might either contend for later Top 20 spots or who could be dangerous threats from breakaways. As we can see, a few teams come with more than one option, specifically Project: Africa, Binance and Sauber. Karnulin isn’t a leader here, contrary to Arndt or Garby, but he’s been known to get decent performances off of domestique duties. Aular is a lieutenant in his team as well, but he could still get a solid result and he’s also the top favorite for white.
Sprinters
FL
SP
AC
RS
FL
SP
AC
RS
Guardini
72
80
82
69
Hayakawa
73
79
79
68
Maksimov
71
80
82
67
Lavoine
72
79
76
62
Petit
76
80
78
72
Dakteris
75
77
77
70
Stepniak
72
79
79
70
Santos
76
78
78
72
Willwohl
73
79
78
67
Zariff
68
78
78
65
Hodeg
72
79
78
74
Young
74
78
77
70
As I’ve mentioned at the top, there are two sprint stages in this race and accordingly, a few sprinters have travelled here. It’s not a super strong group, but that may open up opportunities for riders who otherwise rarely have a shot at a top result. Guardini, Maksimov and Petit are perhaps the best in terms of pure speed, while Carrefour certainly has the strongest squad in play for Hayakawa. Hodeg and Zariff are the favorites to wear white after stage 1.
Young Riders
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
AC
Aular
79
71
75
74
75
69
Munoz
77
71
71
71
72
69
Almeida
76
68
73
75
74
70
Helme
75
74
71
72
74
76
Zimmermann
75
71
77
77
74
69
Girdlestone
75
71
75
72
73
68
Martinez
75
71
70
72
71
69
Rochas
75
72
70
69
72
71
Madouas
74
75
74
72
75
71
A very brief look at the broad field of contenders for the white jersey, although unless there’s a huge upset, there’s really only one: the previously mentioned Aular. But remember, there are points for the Top 8 at the end of the race, so if you have one of these guys on your team, this could be of interest for you.
Thanks for a detailed preview. We hope to start the race well with a Maksimov top-3, like he did in Portugal earlier. Then Spilak is aiming for a top-10, but realistically a top-15 could even be too hard. Have to hope for a good daily form. Interesting to see Munoz as a possible second in the battle for white. He hasn't been performing superbly so far, so to see him get some redemption on home soil would be nice
Looking forward to the reports, good luck to everyone!
Well despite a huge number of strong climbers I can't accept anything less than a fairly solid win. Dombrowski might have +ACC, but I don't see him as faster as Lecuisinier has +5SPR and +1MO. That should more than even out the difference in a sprint towards the line.
Obviously daily form can play out bad for Lecuisinier, but there are no excuses for this race. We have to win, and we want to claim atleast 2 stagewins, the pointsjersey and top 3 in the KOM along the way too.
We bring a worse backup for Lecuisinier than the competitors, but I reckon Jang, Spanopoulos, Rochas and Kastrantas should be strong enough to keep him out of the wind for a significant amount of each stage.
We considered bringing Farantakis here for the sprints as he would be a decent bet for a couple of top 10s, but decided that it was all for Lecuisinier instead.
First race where Preidler is our GC leader, I dont know what i can hope. He have good helpers, especially Aular, so the team is setted for him. Still, looking at the startlist, the top10 will be a good thing.
When one 84mo rider is guaranteed to miss out on the podium, I'm pretty happy to have gone for a breakaway team here, with Vasyliv as kind of a team leader aiming for the lower Top 20 at best.
I do hope this lineup with 7 perfect attackers between 73-75mo actually goes for it from day 1 on to maximize our chances at success.
Even though the mountaintop finishes overshadow the intermediate KoM's, I'd really like to be in contention for the polka-dots with someone, and particularly the final stage looks tailor-made for a breakaway win.
Furthermore, as our only mention of the preview shows, we have two decent young guns in Zimmermann and Madouas who might have the freest roles of the U25 candidates, so let's see where that goes.
Yikui Niu has been the surprise bag of the team for years now, and he follows up his biggest success in MSR with this right away.
A brilliant strategic approach to the sprint, staying in the slipstream as the total outsider and saving energy until the very end to overtake anyone too ambitious.
Of course, the fact that he even latched onto a sprint train as a 74 sprinter to begin with was an even bigger surprise than his surge past the strugglers.
I'll happily take these 8 points which already see us fulfill half of the goals for this race, which were one surprise stage result and a few promising breakaway attempts. I do hope this doesn't make us complacent in the next days though!
Hodeg making the most of his only leadership role this season, as all other races are for Vesely or Kalaba with him as leadout sometimes. The homecrowd really pushes him to an extra level
Our other youngster Bjerg also showing himself in the good light! Really needed a bit of good results after the Pais Vasco/Juarez disaster.
Vuelta a Colombia 
