A couple of seasons back I presented a new way of introducing my predictions, while I before that mainly focused on being subjective and moving through each PT team.
This year I have decided to do both!
This means that we will have a look at each team of the Pro Tour (20 in total) over the next couple of days. Each post will feature 5 teams, and thus it takes 4 posts to read through all teams. Then a final post after the walkthrough will include the subjective ranking. This, the first post (and the 6th in total) will include a small dip into the world of statistics.
We will introduce a list of training expenditures, average age of each team as well as a weighted OVL ranking. Eventually the list of weighted OVL, training expenditures and my subjective prediction will be put through my parametric design, and evaluate the overall estimate of who ends up where. That part will be presented here on the first page, once the other parts of the preview have been posted. Enjoy – and as always, feel free to comment!
Edited by SotD on 06-10-2021 08:43
Manager: Roturn Last season: 14th Star rider: Sean De Bie Average Age: 28,5 Average OVL: 74,7 Training expenditure: € 100.000
Long term manager Roturn is in charge of Aegon – Peroni who had a rough time last season, fighting against relegation mostly. In the end their quality did catapult them into safety, however and 14th PT isn’t shabby. While the team has changed a bit here and there the overall feel of the team is OK. Daan Olivier is the teams undisputed GC leader, and while he isn’t flawless, clever planning can take him a fair bit of the way. Supplemented by strong assets such as Carboni, Ciccone, Zardini and Schlegel show a clear intent to plan for a specific rider type. On paper these riders should all do well, but their physical stats combined with their relatively unwilling attacking-behaviour might see them as more top level domestiques than actual leaders. Time will tell.
While Sean De Bie didn’t have a very strong season, one have to acknowledge the fact that on paper he is among the top 3 puncheurs in the world, and we have to treat him as if he can finally deliver like he should. He has marvellous support from the abovementioned riders and add to that solid riders like Barbin, Denz and de Kleijn you won’t find many puncheurs with a better set of cards on his hands. Dylan Groenewegen is the teams sole sprinter, and while Minali is in as a loaned in lead-out rider, the dutch sprinter usually finds his own way, and thus doesn’t need much support. His 2019 and 2020 results differ massively, but can he find a good middleground he should be a very solid sprinter. Unlike last year van Hooydonck is now an ever present top 10 aspirant in the cobbles, and he has a strong setup around him too with Vermeersch, van der Hoorn, Eeckhout and Robeet. Whether the depth will be worth the money spent is difficult to tell. That all depends how the game sees van Hooydonck in the battle for results. The competition is fierce though and could be a big dealbreaker for Aegon. Finally you have to applaud the TTT depth that can feat a 5-man-lineup with 76-79 TT. Probably not a winning setup, but a more than decent one. Aegon isn’t going to win the PT, but likely isn’t going to relegate either. It may take some time to loosen the stress level of the manager though!
Manager: tsmoha Last season: 11th Star rider: Lachlan Morton Average Age: 27,7 Average OVL: 74,5 Training expenditure: € 1.700.000
The Australian setup of Amaysim – Cervélo has been a long time PT setup, often fighting in the region of 10th place. Last season, known as Bennelong the team came 11th, while could and should probably have been wanting a little bit more. The first thing that jumps out is a massive GC setup with not only Lachlan Morton, but also the 1 year younger Jack Haig who received another bit of training to become a more regular podium contender (despite already achieving that last season). With domestiques like O’Connor, Power, Canty and Harper the team is really strong in controlling GC races in the attempt to win them. While they obviously excel in the mountains, the hills is a bit more of a struggle. Morton can ride the most intense ones with some quality, but after selling Bobridge the team is left with riders like Michael Storer, Patrik Lane and Chris Hamilton. In a PT season where many races have a strong focus on hills, it’s really not an ideal element to be unpresent in.
In the cobbles however, Danny Summerhill joins as one of the best in the world, and with riders like Schreurs, Chatarunga, Scotson, Monk and Naud at his disposal he absolutely have to win some of those cobbled races. Summerhill also being a super handy breakaway rider on flat terrain so I do expect the team to be very intent to ride aggressively, whenever the team designated sprinter, Sondre Holst Enger isn’t in the race. The Norwegian sprinter is a decent PT fit, but not a top level sprinter anymore, and I would be surprised to see him put up more than just a couple of stagewins throughout the season. The team isn’t by any means the TT capacity of the past, but it’s still a fairly durable TTT setup albeit it’s unlikely that many TT points will come in. Similar to Aegon – Peroni, we see a team that is in no imminent danger of relegation, but also have too many open ends to fight for a top 5 spot.
Manager: SportingNonsense Last season: 10th Star rider: Tom Wirtgen Average Age: 26,9 Average OVL: 73,3 Training expenditure: € 2.600.000
In EA Vesuvio we see one of the longest running teams (if not the longest running team) in the Man-Game universe, and also one of the notorically most successful teams, lead by Man-Game legend, SportingNonsense. In the later years, past the Schleck era the team have seen some tendencies of rebuilding, rather than fighting for the very top spots, and this isn’t a season that looks that different. With the newly trained Caio Godoy leading the way, there’s plenty of climbing depth within the team. No standout GC leaders but a bunch of riders that will regularly top 10. Most interesting outside of Godoy is the newly maxed Tom Wirtgen who excels with a very strong timetrial capability. The overall stats of Wirtgen is likely going to see him score some very solid results. Marc Goos and Alex Kirsch both have decent GC quality aswell, but is likely more in the region of top 15.
The team seems to lack top end performers in hills, with a fading Ben Gastauer and Diego Ulissi as the key riders. Both have serious gaps in the climbing abilities however and might suffer in the Ardennes-like oneday races, aswell as the more mountainous GC races. Despite having good hilly stats the loss of Tejay van Garderen will likely be felt. In the flatter hilly races however the combination of Ulissi and particularly van der Lijke will be very solid though, the latter also among the better sprinters in the division. Revelation of the year (2020), Dan Holloway is back, but this time we will have to consider him a leadout rider. The team doesn’t focus on cobbles, but Centrone can make an appearance to ensure the team won’t score minimum points in those. Without lack of cobbles we do have to credit the TTT setup though, and with 7 riders in the area of 76-80 this is a team that quite easily could win team timetrials if they plan after it. Overall I don’t expect EA Vesuvio to be in the mix of the top flight, but another mediocre and well rounded PT team that could end up in a vast variety of spots.
Manager: knockout Last season: 2nd Star rider: Miguel Angel Lopez Average Age: 28,9 Average OVL: 75,3 Training expenditure: € 4.300.000
The no #1 favorite from last season Evonik – ELKO, unfortunately missed out on the prestigious PT crown by a mere 300 points to Isostar. Still the team had a very solid season, and while a big transition has been made they are still among the top teams of the Pro Tour. Unlike previous seasons Evonik have now signed a proper GC rider in the aging Rein Taaramäe. And while he’s no longer the top top rider he once was, he’s still very much capable of winning races. Depth is strong too with Chiarello, Vosekalns, Blums, Tvetcov and loanies Williams and Crncevic. Especially Chiarello had a fantastic season in 2020 and could well be on his way to copy that. On the hilly segment you won’t find a stronger rider anywhere. Miguel Angel Lopez is arguably the strongest puncheur in the world, and only his (for top puncheurs) relatively mediocre sprint capability he’s a top 5-10 rider in this game. He is supplemented with decent support from Blums, Sergis and Budenieks, but as he is an adventurous attacker I’m not sure he needs too much support. No need for him to keep things controlled for a long time – he will rather go on the offense!
Ingus Eislers have grown to become a top sprinter for a brief period of time, and I do expect to see him get some good results. There is on paper a very solid train around him with names like Dzamastagic, Hofstetter and Chavanne, but similar to MAL I’m not overly confident that he needs a sprint train. Chavanne opens the door for an intriguing detail. A huge prologue stat, and with Stoltz also having those traits we may see some strong individual performances from those too. The cobbled department has been significantly reduced this season with Blythe now gone, which leaves the team with solid riders like Polanc and Neilands for the more durable cobbled races and maybe Hofstetter to upset in the easier terrains. The amount of high scoring potential riders in this team makes me expect a top 5. Taaramae and MAL are both very reliable riders that should score approximately 1400-2000 points each, and that is a brilliant base for a top result. I don’t see Evonik as the pre-season favorites, but they are up there!
Manager: jph27 Last season: Promoted Star rider: Adam Yates Average Age: 26,2 Average OVL: 74,8 Training expenditure: € 1.450.000
Farfetch is back (again) as the Man-Games favorite yo-yo’ing team. The team and manager has plenty of experience, also of the negative kind in terms of relegation, but while the teams previous attempts to stay up mainly due to depth, I don’t necessarily see that as much of an issue this time around. The depth is also marked with a good portion of quality that is. Louis Meintjes and Adam Yates both belong to the category of riders that is likely not going to win any races (albeit stages is very likely) – yet they come with a significant points-quality-package. With the proper planning both should be able to sneak past the magic 1000 points barrier and supplementing that with riders such as Cort Nielsen and Guerreiro I would expect Farfetch to be fighting for numerous top 5’s this season! The hilly setup is not top of the game with Anthony Turgis as the designated leader for the less difficult routes – but he’s fast and endurant which should see him perform reasonably well many places. And with good support from Bettiol and Guerreiro I see some interesting potential. Also we shouldn’t forget Meintjes who himself is a very solid puncheur in the mountainous terrain.
Salem Kemboi lead the way in the sprints and the fast man is also a seriously strong rider on the flat not to speak of in prologues. Whether he will get many chances for stage success at PT level is a bit more open for evaluation, but the overall qualities should see him as a decent pointscorer. Also Kamberaj could land a couple of results. In the timetrial aspect the team have a very solid rider in Yoann Paillot who also climbs fairly well and thus could be used in a couple of GC races to lead the team. Stefan De Bod is another solid rider of that quality, but with a TT stat that will likely come out short at PT level. The TTT strength isn’t worth noting though. In the cobbles the new Norwegian star-in-the-making Rasmus Tiller leads the way with Jodok Salzmann as an ever present support rider. Both are durable, but will be looking mainly for 15-20th spots, which doesn’t provide many points. Overall the team have focused a bit too much on talents (9 unmaxed riders in the team this season) and just 21 riders in total without any big pointscorer – so it will be subpar – but not a relegation material I’d say!
Manager: SotD Last season: 5th Star rider: Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier Average Age: 27,3 Average OVL: 74,6 Training expenditure: € 1.500.000
The former 3-times back-to-back PT winner isn’t at the level of 2015-2018, but the team still offers plenty of quality to fight for a decent result. The team is lead by the French superstar Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier who broke the 2000 points barrier last season by winning the Vuelta a España, the GP Liechtenstein aswell as destroying Paris-Nice. We have to expect a similar performance as some of the main rivals like Madrazo, Pluchkin and Taaramäe all declining and only Kudus joining the upper level of GC riders, although below Lecuisinier level. The team offers plenty of support from De la Cruz, Mavrikakis, Jang, Spanopoulos, Giannoutsos, Ioannidis and Rochas albeith neither of those will be in a good position to stand alone. David de la Cruz might be the sole exception and could personally get a couple of solid results. In the hills Clement Koretzky is still among the 5-10 strongest, and might be expected a slightly worse season than last years revelation – but still should score well. Aidan van Niekerk have joined up as a subtop puncheur aswell to opt for the more difficult terrains.
Bryan Coquard is arguably a top 3 sprinter in the world, and is usually performing to a decent overall level of around 1000 points. With the strong prologue stat of both him and leadout Farantakis the duo could sneak out a couple of solid GC results aswell. The leadout setup for Coquard is subpar by all means though and whether that will hinder him in performing is yet to be seen. Outside the regular fields the team offers a top 5 timetriallist in Panagiotis Vlatos who is regularly on 4-500 points while also offering a decent domestiques role. The TTT setup is not yet developed as many of the teams riders are unmaxed. Georgios Karatzios lead the way as the teams cobbler, and while he had a solid last season he’s is not a top cobbler. Michail Kortsidakis joins the list and could land a few decent results with his overall attacking quality, but the majority of points in the team is likely coming from Lecuisinier. If he, Koretzky and Coquard all live up to their results of last season, the team should fight for a top 5 – but there’s little room for mistakes before it’s rather in the sub-rankings of 5-10. We believe a top 5 should be possible though.
Manager: DubbelDekker Last season: 6th Star rider: Angel Madrazo Average Age: 29,3 Average OVL: 75,2 Training expenditure: € 1.300.000
In 2019 DubbelDekker and his Gazelles kicked the door in at PT level securing their first ever PT title, and while last seasons 6th place wasn’t as remarkable this is still a team to look out for. Madrazo isn’t at his peak anymore, but one couldn’t possibly argue that he doesn’t have a chance to win races at the highest possible level anyway. He’s a top top rider and below him a long list of second tiers that can both support him and ride their own chances. Geoghegan Hart, Karnulin, Sosnitskiy, Powless and to a lesser degree Bernard, Vervaeke and Konrad. Davide Formolo needs to be mentioned here aswell, but being the teams primary hilly target rider I suspect he won’t be leading in many purely mountainous races. Riders like Tratnik, Malecki and Kangert supplement him very well, and wherever there is a GC/hilly race with some TT’s Gazelle will be performing well.
The team doesn’t have a sprinter so will be free to attack at any given moment. In cobbles Mike Teunissen is still one of the better riders, and with Potts, Malecki and Kruijswijk as domestiques he should do well. More of a top 5 cobbler than a winning type however. Overall the team have a very solid TT core, but only Powless jumps out to actually have a shot at winning TT’s. As the TTT setup is also below the big TTT gamblers we don’t expect to see any winning moves. With the decrease of Madrazo and only Formolo getting stronger I don’t think Gazelle will be in the top 5 fight – but I have said that before and mistaken quite badly. A solid position of 6-10 seems like the most likely outcome to me.
Manager: matt17br Last season: 8th Star rider: Romain Sicard Average Age: 29,6 Average OVL: 75,4 Training expenditure: € 1.850.000
First thing first. Last updated HQ post is 1 year ago. Not good enough dude!
Team depth, I mean, Team Generali is next. And boy do they love their secondary GC riders. Last season I rated them rather high due to the resemblances to Gazelle with the strong field of GC riders that could on paper get solid depth points throughout the season. And while they did end up 8th last season I’ll be more relucant to place them near the top 5 as Spilak has been exchanged with Sicard. Both top riders, but also both now older and Sicard already overperformed a bit last season. The ever aggressive French rider isn’t over yet though and some cunning planning could see him take a long list of good results. And backup he has in plenties. Keinath, Iturria, Dyball, Figueiredo, Ludvigsson, Eenkhoorn, Brown, Mäder, Dennis, Oliveira, Kung and van Baarle are more or less copies with small variants. All solid MO, HI and TT riders – some with their focus on either terrain, but mostly well rounded riders. We do have to address the TTT potential immediately though. With a team like that you can’t avoid getting top TTT results. Some teams may be able to compete, but with 9 riders in the region of 75-78TT and even more in the 70-73 area this is easily the most homogeneous setup in the PT. Riders like Dennis, Oliveira and Kung are likely to score decent individual results aswell – in particular Dennis with also sublime prologue skills.
The team doesn’t fancy sprinters though and while De Buyst can sprint, it’s unlikely that he will. He is one of many solid cobblers though, with Debesay, Menten and Gaday standing out, but also Vermote and aforementioned De Buyst deserves a mention. Riders such as Oliveira, Kung and van Baarle are all incredibly well suited for the TONE race. Looking through the team one major oversight though is the lack of a puncheur. Sicard on paper is a solid one, but I’m not sure it’s wise to plan him as one. So plenty of options for points are lost, and this is why I see Generali as another team in the middle-ground area, and not a top contender.
Manager: tastasol Last season: 12th Star rider: Lukasz Wisniowski Average Age: 27,3 Average OVL: 74,5 Training expenditure: € 2.600.000
When Generali was a generalist, Grieg is the exact opposite. They are specialists, and does that part well in a couple of very specific areas. The mountains isn’t one! Sigurd Nesset had a very solid season last year, and could have one again, but it all comes down to how aggressive and fortunate he is with his attacks. Ivan Sosa, Jonas Vingegaard and Gonzalo Serrano all offer more of the attacking ground, but neither can win mountainous or hilly races despite being reasonably talented. Instead of dwelling too much on the “cannot” let’s look at what the team can do – Cobbles! Grieg is easily the strongest cobbled setup in the world and offers not 1, but 2 potential winners. Wisniowski as the most obvious one, but also Mads Pedersen who is now an extremely potent cobbler, and finisher. Solid domestiques like Ringheim, Kosic, Laporte, Resell and Dahl-Olsen offers their services to the two leaders. Mads Pedersen is also a solid sprinter, and while he can’t match the best he’s easily fast enough to win from reduced bunches, and as he is very strong he could well be in one now and again. Soren Kragh Andersen is another rider that is strong as a beast and also fancy a quick finish. He’s the shared best prologue rider in the world next to Taylor Phinney and is likely going to score a good amount of points.
Mads Würtz is another marvelous TT rider, and with his solid allround skills he’s the only timetriallist who regularly contest Phinney for the win. Last season I made the mistake of calling them an obvious relegator due to the neglect of mountains and hills – and while I won’t make the same mistake again, it does intrigue my nerves to see a team like that be able to fend off danger that well without an actual leader in the two most raced areas of cycling. But wise from knowledge of last season I won’t predict Grieg-Maersk to relegate – In fact they could be a top 10 team. I don’t think they are though.
Manager: alexkr00 Last season: 9th Star rider: Joseph Dombrowski Average Age: 27,3 Average OVL: 74,3 Training expenditure: € 2.400.000
Alexkr00 is shared the 3rd most experienced manager in the Man-Game universe, and the former Wolfpack has turned into Huski Chocolate after declining to be our buddies anymore. Despite not wanting that it’s a very solid team still. Dombrowski is a top 5 climber in the world and I’m sure last season was a one-off. Decent domestiques is around the American such as Rodriguez, Brambilla and Majka, but neither are likely going to perform well alone, although Rodriguez does have an interesting skillset, and Brambilla seems to defy his stats ever single season. Newcomer Tiesj Benoot is the new puncheur leader after the poor recent show of now-past Ian Boswell. He isn’t a top puncheur but he does have a very well rounded stat-combination – as does his partner-in-crime Floris Gerts who too is a solid puncheur – and even better cobbler (Benoot is also a very solid cobbler). Gerts should be up there with the top 5 cobblers in the world and with domestiques like Benoot, Roosen, Meeus and Erdenesuren he should be well-equipped for late attack or final dash.
Eduard Grosu is the long time lead sprinter of the team, and this season is no different. He is lead out by either van Poppel or van der Kooij, with the former also being a very solid lead sprinter himself. After the sale of Lammertink, Goldstein is the lead Timetriallist, and that isn’t likely going to do much in a crowded PT peloton. The former TTT specialist team Jack Wolfskin is no longer interested in that category though, and instead offers some breakaway riders like Conti and Tolhoek. This team hardly ever leaves the middle ground of the Pro Tour, and with the solid core of almost everything I can’t see that changing.
Manager: Scorchio Last season: 15th Star rider: John Degenkolb Average Age: 28,4 Average OVL: 74,5 Training expenditure: € 1.400.000
First Scorchio and his Hexacta team defied reality to promote easily to the Pro Tour, and then he went on to defy it once more to stay up – relatively comfortably aswell in the end. Last season Berhane was pretty much alone to fight for the GC results, this year he is joined by Pinot to make it a more viable project and with strong support riders like Bustamente, Koshevoy, Sendeku and Martinez it seems realistic that they can be well represented in almost all GC races this year. Petr Vakoc got a boost and is now one of the better puncheurs in the PT on paper, although he has found a way in the past to not show it. He should have a decent season and with riders like Sepulveda, Zakarin and Vincent to supplement him I’d say the team is in a very solid position. Sepulveda, Sendeku and Dlamini are riders that could also perform well on their own.
The big star of the team is obviously John Degenkolb who had a great last season, and with massive support from Contreras, Santos, Harrison and Baska he should be dominating once more. Except for Gaviria I don’t see a sprinter that can match Degenkolb. The leadout riders showed last season that they can also perform on their own – and while that is more of a random gamble, the more the merrier seems to be the evaluation. The team doesn’t have any top timetriallists, and neither do they have any top cobblers. Sanogo, Arissol and Chokri are the leaders for most cobbles where Degenkolb and his trusted lieutenant Harrison will probably be riding the less complicated cobbles. Overall I think ISA – Hexacta improved from last season – and many team didn’t – so I would be surprised to see them relegate, although there is a risk of that happening. Most realistic offer is a position in the tiers just below top 10.
Manager: Croatia14 Last season: 1st Star rider: Taylor Phinney Average Age: 27,6 Average OVL: 75,0 Training expenditure: € 3.700.000
Being the reigning champion there is a lot of pressure on performance, but with one of the best managers in the game, you are also pretty sure to get a good result. And when the team is strong aswell, there’s not excuse not to perform. Taylor Phinney is one of just two all-dominant riders in the game. Alongside Silvio Herklotz he can basically pick out races and win them all. Being one of the best climbers in the world the best timetriallist in the world, one of the top puncheurs and with a horrendous final kick you have to get up early to fend him off! Scoring in the midst of 2500 points last season this rider can pretty much singlehandedly keep you safe at PT level. Inkelaar, Roman, Bardet, Mannion, Pedrero, Gregaard and Rikunov join a long list of attacking climbers. Something Isostar had significant success with last year whenever their top tiers wasn’t available for action. In the hills Lutsenko is one of the top 5 puncheurs in the world and offers a fierce attack mode. He doesn’t have too much backup, but probably enough to keep him withing striking distance to much resemblance with Miguel Angel Lopez (without further comparison).
David Per is the teams cobbler, and he has a very solid core of stats to perform above his 79COB stat. With good support from Shaun Nick Bester and Jonas Rickaert we should see him constantly in the top 10, while sometimes even breaking into the top 5. If the cobbles isn’t hard new supersprinter, Fernando Gaviria should be able to take them on aswell. And speaking of Gaviria he certainly is the shared no# in the world with John Degenkolb. They are very similar in their competences and should deliver a fierce battle for numerous wins throughout the season. With only Phinney riding a strong TT, it doesn’t seem like Isostar will fancy to use him in any Team Timetrials this season. Can Isostar win another time? Absolutely. Are they favorites to do so? In my opinion yes. With 3 of the very best riders in the game and supplemented by Per + a solid core I can’t see many teams posing a threat to them. Maybe 2-3.
Manager: Bikex Last season: 7th Star rider: Matej Mohoric Average Age: 26,9 Average OVL: 74,9 Training expenditure: € 1.400.000
For many King Power was the revelation of the year in the 2020 edition of the Man-Game – And boy does this team have a positive development over the transferseason. Rafael Reis had a very bad season last year, but must be expected to better. There’s no excuses for him, and with the addition of Primoz Roglic the team is well covered in terms of GC depth. Dion Smith was among the top 3 overperformers last year, and while I don’t see him perform as good this time around he’s still a well equipped PT KOM challenger and stagehunter. Jan Drago Petelin and Ka Hoo Fung both offer solid domestiques roles. In the hilly department Lutsenko has left, but the addition of Mohoric and a fully developed Gidich surely add to the overall points tally of last year, despite Lutsenko being a top performer. Sirironnachai and especially Quita are both solid helpers and breakaway riders.
In the cobbles department Kasperkiewicz lead the way as one of the outsiders for glory, and he does have a very strong team around him including Ferreira, Darbinyan, Hsu, Vanthourenhout and Marzuki – all of whom offers a good variety of qualities, from climbing, punching and sprinting. While Hsu isn’t a top sprinter he is a very solid allrounder and you could expect him to get a good amount of races in which no top sprinters are an imminent threat. Even in the stacked fields he could be one of those getting a good result here and there. In the TT department there’s plenty of quantity, albeit quality is lacking. Mano, Beniusis, Fung and star TT’er Chun Wing Leung will be the main diesel for the TTT setup, and the leaders like Reis, Roglic, Gidich and Kasperkiewicz are all solid enough to be part of the train aswell for whenever needed. Leung is a very solid prologue rider and could win a couple of prologues if he’s at his best! Overall this team is clearly among the better, and having developed positively over the off season could see them climb further up the PT rankings. I don’t see them winning, but anything else is possible!
Manager: Heine Last season: Promoted Star rider: Sam Bewley Average Age: 28,1 Average OVL: 75,0 Training expenditure: € 0
Another very experienced manager, Heine brings his Mapei team up after promotion, and will look to stay clear of any danger. He has done very well in doing that! In the GC battle Warren Barguil is a very solid (often top 5) rider. And with riders like Fabbro, Lemus Davila, Destribois and Quintana (Dayer) there is a ton of breakaway quality available. Emmanuel Buchmann is on paper a more than solid puncheur, and this season with some limited quality I would expect him to finally be the consistent top 10 finisher he should be. He is backed up nicely by Goncalves, Rohendi, Svab, van der Poel, Groselj and Rodriguez.
In the cobbled department no other than Sam Bewley has joined the team, and while others may have taken over the favorite role there wills till be numerous wins and podiums within this superstar – and if not in the cobbles then in the sprints. The cobbled department is strong with riders such as van den Berg, Schlecther, Silva, Palyu and van der Poel. And the leadouts are strong aswell with Silva, Cisse and Grosser. But I’m not sure those are for Bewley. They are likely for another top sprinter Jonas Ahlstrand! The team is very well rounded and with top edge quality here and there they should charge straight into the top 10. The TT’s is up to Predatsch which probably isn’t worth mumbling about – and the team isn’t young by any means, but that is a problem for future Homer – I mean, Heine. This season, Mapei is strong. Very strong! And with the right guidance and luck they could be a top 5 setup – I would reckon though that the quality of other teams is a bit too difficult also when considering the experienced managers behind those teams, so it will be outside the top 5 – but inside the top 10.
Manager: jaxika Last season: Promoted Star rider: Justo Tenorio Average Age: 28,9 Average OVL: 74,2 Training expenditure: € 1.400.000
Jaxika and his MOL boys will take part of the Pro Tour for the very first time, and hence a big and warm welcome! The first try is often a very difficult one, and I could see it become that for MOL too. The mountain setup isn’t bad at all though! Last seasons Vuelta runner-up Justo Tenorio is ready for a permantent PT season, and he should once more podium several GC races. Ki Ho Choi and Georg Preidler are also very solid GC rider that with some clever planning could become the key for a good season. Orluis Aular is among the top U25 riders, and offers a good amount of quality too, while Brozyna, Stancu, Pereyra, Kenyeres, Domagalski and Matte are more domestiques – but good domestiques. In the hills I can see lead rider Zico Waeytens struggle at PT level, but if he rides the easier races with Preidler supplementing on the harder ones it may would out OK – not great, not good, but OK.
Normally one would argue that Edward Theuns is a top cobbler – and he is. But the peloton is so fierce this season that he is probably mostly a top 10 rider. He’s a fast finisher though which add to his chances of success, but I would expect him to often be on leadout duties for Ivano Lo Cicero – and I’m not too sure he will get a train, unless some clever planning keeps him out of the obvious race path. Adrien Petit is normally a pretty solid sprinter too, but at PT level he will be lucky to get podiums. The team doesn’t rely on timetrials, and I do think it’s a good call. The team need Tenorio to be planned well to get a good result, but it’s definitely not a team that will go down without a fight. The issue may be experience in the PT planning sector, which is quite different from the CT and PCT – and with a long list of very experienced managers MOL could draw the short straw. Definitely not a given though!
[img]Still searching for the last HQ update...[/img]
Manager: Roman Last season: 4th Star rider: Merhawi Kudus Average Age: 29,0 Average OVL: 74,9 Training expenditure: € 4.300.000
One of the most successful teams to have never won the Pro Tour is the Moser – Sygic setup run by the very experienced Roman. On first glance the team looks a bit off, and while you can’t really explain it it hits you, that Sam Bewley isn’t here anymore! The team that have dominated the cobbled department for almost a decade has parted their way with the cobbles. Not entirely, but with riders like Boros, Hnik and Polnicky we won’t be seeing Moser at the front anymore – and hardly fighting for top 10 either. Instead we will have to look up into the high mountains, where Merhawi Kudus is suddenly a top rider. And also having Jan Hirt present we should expect to see Moser fight for good results in almost all GC races. Riders like Kolar, Hosek Cink and particularly Prado are also capable of landing some decent results in the climbing department.
Peter Sagan is still a top puncheur that can win almost every hilly race he attend and with McKenna, Schönberger, Cerny and Toupalik by his side he should fancy his chances to keep things together for that final sprint towards the line. After the cobbled gap of Bewley there is a gap in sprints too. Stepniak and Bertilsson isn’t going to win many races combined, but the amount of racedays may see them finding a couple of uninvested areas to battle it out. Atkins and Kukrle are the best individual timetriallists, but neither is likely to land top results, the TTT setup though is pretty solid. It will be difficult for me to place Moser outside of the top 5, as a team that hardly ever finishes outside the top 10, but I guess I have to make an expection.
Manager: cio93 Last season: 3rd Star rider: Silvio Herklotz Average Age: 26,8 Average OVL: 74,6 Training expenditure: € 3.4000.000
Team Puma is another former PT winning team that offers a lot of high end quality. Silvio Herklotz is the best rider in the world, and he only got better since the last season. Herklotz has a way of winning basically all races he rides, and thus makes it possible for him to be one of the 2500 point scorers that usually means the team will be in the top 5. Vasyliv and Stüssi are his main helpers, and both are capable of landing decent results too, but the lack of Arndt will probably be felt one way of another. A bunch of strong breakaway riders like Egger, Zimmermann, Madouas, Mager, Niu etc. are all present in the team and will offer some aggressive riding. But also a nice U25 twist with Conci and Kämna riding as loan-ins this season.
On paper Herklotz is among the better puncheurs, but with a very limited amount of racedays I assume the hills will be split between Demare and Mager rather than actually looking too much into Herklotz. And while Demare is a good puncheur the lack of climbing ability have often hurt him in the tougher hills. He is a superior punchy sprinter though and can pick between a vast number of races that suit him. Mager though is not a puncheur that is likely to score many points from Ardennes like oneday races. He will probably be an aggressive rider though. Demare will be leadout by Aregger, Steimle and sometimes Cavagna. The latter mainly being a leader in allround races like Ganna and Weinstein. Lukas Meiler and Cavagna will share the cobbled leader role, but isn’t likely to perform top results although they are very solid allrounders. The team only has Sütterlin as a stand out TT rider, with Ganna not far off – but the TTT setup is very strong – and arguably the best next to Generali. Team Puma usually have a ton of U25 eligeble riders, and this season is no different. They will always find a way to scrape a decent amount of points here and there and add to what Herklotz and Demare scores. Therefore Puma is a top 5 team.
Manager: OlegTinkov Last season: 16th Star rider: Timofey Kritskiy Average Age: 28,0 Average OVL: 74,7 Training expenditure: € 1.000.000
Tinkoff/Tinkov is a very experienced manager, and have proven again and again to be able to fight against relegation even when it seems the most difficult. Last season they were saved by to GT podiums from Timofey Kritskiy. That is no longer an option. Top 5 might be, but could be a stretch aswell. Pavel Sivakov isn’t quite ready to be the big leader of the team, but offers a very nice potential U25 outing, before finally being ready to lead the way next season. Riders like Novikov, Mamykin, Rybalkin and Foliforov have often been strong attackers, and could be again, but neither are big pointscorers usually. Alexander Vlasov might be the leader in quite some races, and similarly to Sivakov he is a strong U25 fit. In the hills a combination of Chernitskiy, Trakhov and newly trained Kanerva will try to find a good point harvest – but I could see it become tricky as there is a long way up to the strongest puncheurs.
Florian Senechal and Arman Kamyshev is a strong cobbled duo that is even matched up further by Sulimov and Zubov. On paper one of the very best cobbled setups in the world. What may come as a stress factor though is that a good number of other teams have also found a way to improve their cobbles setup and is now matching – or outdoing Team Tinkoff. Samolenkov and Moser are subpar sprinters in the division, and need luck to get good results. Samolenkov have done decent results in the past and will be the teams priority sprinter. The team does probably have the number 1 high-end TTT setup though, if they put together their strongest possible riders now and again. They can feature an amazing 7 riders with 77-80 TT. Most of their TT’ers are limited riders though and could struggle to keep up due to other stats kicking in. They should be the pre-race favorite for a number of TTTs though. Realistically though only Yatsevich can actually win an individual TT. Overall I think Tinkoff is among the top 3 weakest teams this season, and thus have to put them into relegation danger. Their manager is the number 1 expert in avoiding the dump though.
Manager: jandal7 Last season: Promoted Star rider: Joseph Areruya Average Age: 26,4 Average OVL: 74,3 Training expenditure: € 0
Xero Racing promoted to the Pro Tour this season, and will be another team new to the division. Like in the case of MOL the first try is always difficult, and many plummet back to the PCT richer on experience to give it another go. Before jumping to deep into this setup I have to admit, that this is probably going to be the case here aswell. Bennett is a solid climber, but lacking top end stats and combined with a low aggressiveness and lack of TT he will likely be a rider in the area of 10th more often than not. Schleck, Habtemichael and Higuita are all strong domestiques that could prove themselves as KOM chasers, and Joseph Areruya is a star in the making. Being U25 eligeble will see him score a fairly high amount of points if planned mainly around GC races. BUT, as the sole hilly rider I would expect him to “waste” a fair bit of racedays being the leader in one-day races, and while the hardest ones might give a good result, he is very likely to come short. This is where PT experience may have planned different, but we are yet to see! Xandro Meurisse, Stanislau Bazkhou and Hugo Houle all offer a decent potential in hills of a different variety. If they are planned well, they could help the team battle against relegation!
Luke Rowe is the teams cobbled leader, and as spotted numerous times in other teams the competition is just too strong for him to compete regularly. He is fast though and may enjoy a couple of strong results. In a pure sprint I would be surprised to see him and Houle win. Morne van Niekerk is a decent timetriallist, but not strong enough to win, and the team doesn’t have a strong TTT setup. Niels Schomber might perform reasonably well with his high prologue stat though. Despite loving the setup, and the young nature of the team I can’t help but see it as the weakest lineup in the Pro Tour this season – But it does make sense as their battling team is only worth 3mio in wages, compared to many others at 3,5mio. So it’s a team that values in between the PT and PCT. That probably won’t suffice.
Manager: Mrsuperstar Last season: Promoted Star rider: Simon Yates Average Age: 28,1 Average OVL: 74,3 Training expenditure: € 2.600.000
Mrsuperstar and his newly founded Zwift Pro Cycling setup is actually a very experienced setup. Once signing Ryan Eastman I felt confident, that it was to make him 84MO and fighting for future GT wins – unfortunately I was wrong, and with Cattaneo he is instead another number in the pool of a serious amount of 80-82MO riders battling to find the best and least competitive GC races. This can go good – or bad. Cattaneo is notorically underperforming, Eastman isn’t, but they are very similar, and one may easily spot the low HI as the reason. Supplemented by Intxausti, Burke, Jones and Rhim they do in fact have some quality riders helping them. Especially Burke seems very relevant – Hopefully he will have some chances to attack, rather than to help the two GC captains get 8th in the GC.
The manager did one thing very brilliantly though, which may well save the team from relegation danger. Simon Yates moved to 81HI and with his already impressive 77SPR many many points will be waiting in Ardennes like races. He isn’t even too shabby at timetrials either. The young Xuban Errazkin is another very solid puncheur who could work well in shorter week-long races. Cobbles isn’t really on the menu with Young and Yechezkel the best fits, and while Ben Swift was once a top rider (and obviously a great fit for Zwift), many wins isn’t likely to happen. None isn’t the right answer either though! With Eaton and Verona in the team there is a solid ground to help the GC riders in any given TTT, but the team won’t itself fight for wins. While I could see Zwift struggle to survive, the proper planning would likely keep them afloat. Whether this and luck is on their side is difficult to tell, but I am giving them the benefit of the doubt.
Trainings Ranking:
Let’s start out by having a look at the trainings spent on this seasons Pro Tour. Despite having just 20 teams a total of 39 million euros have been spent on trainings, which is an average of just below 2 million euros per team. In recent years the training money spent have been a fairly good indicator of which teams do well in the Pro Tour – Obviously not accounting for everything, but it does implement a certain aspect of “cheating the wage-system”, and thus the ones spending more money is usually the ones gaining the most relatively speaking. We immediately spot 4/5 teams in the top 5 who was also top 5 in the Pro Tour Rankings 2020. Evonik with their large Miguel Angel Lopez training, Moser with their large Merhawi Kudus training, Isostar with their large Fernando Gaviria training and Puma with their large Herklotz training. This is 4 teams with massive superstars in their teams and money invested into enhanching the winning option.
Next in line are riders that isn’t likely to win big races, but still big trainings to move forward strong riders to another level, such as Caio Godoy, Mads Pedersen, Simon Yates, Floris Gerts, Tiesj Benoot, Mekseb Debesay and Jack Haig. In other words sub top trainings for sub top teams. Some interesting trainings have taken place outside the top 10 aswell, but the pattern is slowly going downwards in terms of value of points. Interestingly Mapei and Xero Racing have decided to spend their money on strengthening their teams during the transferperiod rather than enhancing riders. In this specific list I find it the most interesting, that Aegon hasn’t managed to throw a substantial amount of money into training as a fixed member of the PT. Let’s hope it’s not a sign of bad things – it isn’t always obviously!
Pos
Team Name
Training
1
Evonik - ELKO
€ 4.300.000
2
Moser - Sygic
€ 4.300.000
3
Isostar - Specialized
€ 3.700.000
4
Team Puma - SAP
€ 3.400.000
5
EA Vesuvio
€ 2.600.000
6
Grieg-Maersk
€ 2.600.000
7
Zwift Pro Cycling
€ 2.600.000
8
Huski Chocolate
€ 2.400.000
9
Generali
€ 1.850.000
10
Amaysim - Cervélo
€ 1.700.000
11
Festina - OAKA
€ 1.500.000
12
Farfetch
€ 1.450.000
13
ISA - Hexacta
€ 1.400.000
14
King Power
€ 1.400.000
15
MOL
€ 1.400.000
16
Gazelle
€ 1.300.000
17
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
€ 1.000.000
18
Aegon - Peroni
€ 100.000
19
Mapei
€ -
20
Xero Racing
€ -
Average Age:
Some teams focus on youth, others don’t. It doesn’t directly inflicts with the results, although U25 competitions can do a great amount of good to a title aspirant or in the relegation battle. Because the average age doesn’t say a lot I have decided to only bring the list for the fun of it, and not use it in the overall ranking parametric.
Newly promoted Farfetch and Xero Racing have the youngest teams of all – by some margin in fact. Only 1,2-1,4 years above the U25 eligible cut in average is quite impressive and clearly indicates, that while many riders may not be ready to shine at PT level, there could be quite an interesting battle going on at U25 level. Puma is ever present towards the top, and it’s impressive to see that the work around talents can be combined with a high level of performance. EA Vesuvio and King Power are also high on the ranking with other regular PT setups in the next places. Directly in the middle of it all we find last seasons Pro Tour winners, while very strong teams like Evonik, Generali, Moser and Gazelle in general are very low on the list. Generali a total of 3,4 years older than Farfetch.
Pos
Team Name
AVR age
1
Farfetch
26,2
2
Xero Racing
26,4
3
Team Puma - SAP
26,8
4
EA Vesuvio
26,9
5
King Power
26,9
6
Festina - OAKA
27,3
7
Grieg-Maersk
27,3
8
Huski Chocolate
27,3
9
Isostar - Specialized
27,6
10
Amaysim - Cervélo
27,7
11
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
28,0
12
Mapei
28,1
13
Zwift Pro Cycling
28,1
14
ISA - Hexacta
28,4
15
Aegon - Peroni
28,5
16
Evonik - ELKO
28,9
17
MOL
28,9
18
Moser - Sygic
29,0
19
Gazelle
29,3
20
Generali
29,6
Weighted OVL Ranking:
The new and (hopefully) improved Weighted OVL ranking works in this way. The 15 best riders of each team is calculated as the OVL of the team, and then there is given a bonus of 0,25 per rider above 79 OVL to proper value the top level riders as they are usually key to performing.
The actual OVL calculated from the best 15 riders saw Evonik, Gazelle, Farfetch, Isostar and King Power as the top 5 teams, while in the weighted ranking Isostar moves to the top with Evonik, Gazelle, Festina and Mapei follows. King Power makes a slight drop, while the new formula is the hardest on Farfetch who drops from 3rd to 12th due to not having any 79+ OVL riders. Only two other teams are in the same situation. Team Tinkoff – La Datcha and EA Vesuvio. Both are positioned in the lower end of the spectrum.
The sharp eyes may spot that Aegon – Peroni is also placed in the very bottom here aswell as they were in the training category. They were uneasy last season as to whether or not they would survive – Should they be once more?
Pos
Team Name
Weighted OVL
1
Isostar - Specialized
76,80
2
Evonik - ELKO
76,66
3
Gazelle
76,41
4
Festina - OAKA
76,39
5
Mapei
76,33
6
Grieg-Maersk
76,33
7
King Power
76,27
8
Moser - Sygic
76,17
9
Huski Chocolate
76,14
10
Team Puma - SAP
76,14
11
Generali
76,10
12
Farfetch
76,08
13
ISA - Hexacta
76,07
14
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
76,02
15
Amaysim - Cervélo
75,96
16
MOL
75,89
17
Zwift Pro Cycling
75,76
18
Xero Racing
75,50
19
EA Vesuvio
75,41
20
Aegon - Peroni
75,37
Subjective Ranking:
After having analyzed all teams manually and subjectively, this is my estimate for each team. The division seems much closer than normal, which is also inflicted in the Weighted OVL ranking that leaves less than 1,5 point between the strongest and weakest link. I do feel pretty convinced that Isostar still have the strongest team, although the loss of some strong riders makes it difficult to call as a certainty. As main rivals we should yet again see Evonik and Puma, but with King Power and Festina as a dark horses. Moser and Gazelle seems slightly weaker than last year albeit not a lot. Best of the promoted teams is Mapei, while I believe Xero Racing would be the worst pre-season setup.
MOL and Zwift could be battling out a relegation battle with Tinkoff, and I believe one of the two will make it. I have opted for MOL because Tenorio can have a great season, while I can see Yates struggle a tiny bit more to salvage his team.
Pos
Team Name
1
Isostar - Specialized
2
Evonik - ELKO
3
Team Puma - SAP
4
King Power
5
Festina - OAKA
6
Moser - Sygic
7
Gazelle
8
Huski Chocolate
9
Mapei
10
Amaysim - Cervélo
11
Generali
12
Grieg-Maersk
13
EA Vesuvio
14
Farfetch
15
Aegon - Peroni
16
ISA - Hexacta
17
MOL
18
Zwift Pro Cycling
19
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
20
Xero Racing
Overall Final Ranking:
The final ranking system is based on the other rankings – and doesn’t really look into whether or not the gap is significant or not, which is the main flaw of the calculation. As money not put into wages can be used either on purchase or rider training I feel that the training schedule doesn’t need as high a weight as the rest, and thus is given an x 0,5 to the points. The lower the points (ranking positions) in each category the higher in the final rankings the team ends.
Isostar and Evonik both feature at the very top of every ranking and end up very close. If the training expenditure were held 1:1 they would have been exactly even with 5 points each, but because I only rate training expenditures of half the value Isostar makes it to the top. Puma takes a very tight 3rd and then a shared 4th-5th between Moser and Festina before King Power will rise 1 spot to take 6th just ahead of Gazelle. Then we start having some bigger gaps between the teams again, and the calculation rates Grieg in 8th with Huski 9th ahead of Mapei in 10th.
In the bottom area we see Xero who was bottom 3 in all included categories, and then scary as it might be – Aegon! The last relegated team is Tinkoff, but only just ahead of MOL and Zwift. ISA – Hexacta and EA Vesuvio can’t feel entirely safe this season either, but should eventually have enough to stay clear of the relegation.
Really interesting and comprehensive, indeed - always a joy reading your previews
From your transfer comments, I guess it's rather obvious who will be your only contender for 1st place Or am I wrong and we'll have several of them?
Also: Breaking news, Evonik got more than one * in TT Do they actually accept this rating?
Thanks a lot for doing this again. It's a very interesting read and i'm curious to see which other teams you see in that 2-6 area.
Amaysim - Cervélo
Manager: tsmoha Timetrial strength: **
Evonik - ELKO
Manager: knockout Timetrial strength: **
It's over! Everyone run for their lifes!
Fabianski wrote:
Also: Breaking news, Evonik got more than one * in TT Do they actually accept this rating?
I'd like to decline that rating to keep the tradition. In any case, it shows a big mistake i've made during transfers and shows me where i have to take some actions during the next transfers!
Thanks for the previews so far! Always a nice read.
I hope that in some TTTs I might be able to get a 4* rating, while in ITTs I agree, that others are just stronger.
Olivier indeed must be planned well (or actually just avoiding most top 82+ climbers). He showed last Tour de France, that he can beat some of them, e.g. Dombrowski, but he won`t ever beat the top elite group. So hopefully the support helps.
Regarding leadership of others I agree...was already tough last year but plans to get a 2nd GC rider quickly faded away and so instead of Velits/Valls (who failed) it`s now more depth but less main stat with Carboni/Ciccone/Zardini needing to step up here and there. So let`s hope their fighter disadvantage doesn`t make them fail too often.
Cobbles, sprinter I agree. Minali not planned as leadout anyway, same as Bauhaus last year won`t be needed for him.
Cobbles I hope the money paid is worth it and it`s not for top70-130 only for those. Hopefully Van Hooydonck indeed makes the top10 regularly with Van der Hoorn being similar as last year with 20-30 area and same for Vermeersch obviously, which would already be decent depth points with potential to surprise a bit higher here and there.
And De Bie...well, in the end I can`t complain too much. The scoring after the last races wasn`t even that bad anymore. He simply just doesn`t get me a lot of stage points as he barely podiums despite his stats. If he changes this, he should be able to come closer to the scoring of Lutsenko/Sagan.
Ranking wise I hope to be more towards your better guess and less towards the lower, but I agree, that normally chances of relegation should be far less than last year, where it was very realistic post transfers already.
