Tafiolmo wrote:
These are the current stats with Pogacar's stats first and Roglic second. Please comment on any suggested changes on ANY of the stats as these two riders will be the most focused on when the next DB update comes out. Big question though, if Roglic were 82 mtn and all the other stats stayed as they were who would be better between Pogacar and Roglic? Also any other stat suggestions on how to stat them as well are welcome.
Mtn 83/81
Hill 80/81
Cob 65/64
Flat 75/76
Spr 70/71
Acc 76/78
TT 78/79
Pro 77/78
Sta 80/77
Res 77/78
Rec 83/77
Dow 75/75
Figt 82/80
I agree that Roglic has a better punch than Poga and it's reasonable that his hill stat is better. Keep in mind that the hill stat won't make Roglic a better classique rider than Poga, as Poga has very stong back-ups. The only difference the stat would really make is that Roglic accelerations in in hard hills would be slightly stronger.
With the current stats Roglic is still very capable of beating Poga in a GT as it has happened in my tests more than once so I don't think the 2 points gap is an exaggeration.
Tafiolmo, is there a specific reason why the STA stat has a gap that big?
Gargatouf- Thanks for pointing out Armirail and will look at him some more, as I know he is a strong rider.
King- It's good to see that in your tests Roglic was capable of beating Pogacar in a GT with a 2 point mtn difference. If you look at Hooligan's stats a few pages back for Pogacar and Roglic I kind of used this as an inspiration for both pogacar and Roglic as both are very atypical GT riders and in very different ways as well. If you look at the previous post on the previous page, I also asked the question about if members feel that Roglic has a rec and or sta problem. If so then his current stats in these two areas are probably ok but if not then they would be raised a bit.
Tafiolmo wrote: Gargatouf- Thanks for pointing out Armirail and will look at him some more, as I know he is a strong rider.
King- It's good to see that in your tests Roglic was capable of beating Pogacar in a GT with a 2 point mtn difference. If you look at Hooligan's stats a few pages back for Pogacar and Roglic I kind of used this as an inspiration for both pogacar and Roglic as both are very atypical GT riders and in very different ways as well. If you look at the previous post on the previous page, I also asked the question about if members feel that Roglic has a rec and or sta problem. If so then his current stats in these two areas are probably ok but if not then they would be raised a bit.
I fully agree with the Rec problem and with these stats it is present in game too. Sometimes he has a less good day at the end of the GT which I think is pretty realistic.
I don't know if i agree with the Sta problem, atleast i never noticed it.
They're nearly the same rider as it is. Both dominating the field in 1 week events. Both dominating the 3 week events, both (more than capable of) winning the classics.
In the past I've read a lot of comments about Roglic not being able to hang in the high mountains (despite there being proof of the opposite as well).
With that said, I do believe there are small differences when compared 1on1, most notably Roglic seems to struggle just a tad bit more than Pogacar in the High Mountains. Dont get me wrong, Roglic is a great climber and would get an easy 82MTN if it wasn't for balance reasons. Furthermore, Roglic seems to struggle more towards the end of a grand tour. We've seen this in the Tour and Vuelta last year. Again this doesn't mean that Roglic has bad recup stats, I especially give less value to the fact he was struggling in the Vuelta after he had already finished second in the Tour, 6th in the WC 1 week later, and winning LBL a week later still. He started riding basically non stop since 21st of June, and didn't stop till he won the Vuelta at 08 November. That's 4 and half months of cycling, and competing for the win wherever he showed up. We all remember the crazy upset, but if that upset had not happened... We would've crowned Roglic as the new Merckx instead of Pogacar.
Roglic does seem like the stronger rider in 1 week events. If it wasn't for his unfortunate falls in Paris-Nice this year, and Criterium du Dauphine last year he would've been even more dominant. Last years Criterium, for those who had already forgotten, had Pogacar compete and finish 4th. 5th If roglic stayed on his bike. This year we've had them compete again in the Basque Tour just weeks after Poga manhandling the opposition in the Tirreno (outside of MvdP and WVA) and Roglic handily beating the (much stronger) field in Paris Nice (until he crashed).
Roglic won the Tour of Basque country with 52 seconds over Vingegaard, and 1:08 of Poga, in an event where very often seconds decide who wins or loses. (he won yellow, green and mtn jersey).
Roglic is (a lot?) more explosive than pogi. Especially on shorter climbs, he was sure to win the Fleche Wallone on the Mur de Huy if it wasn't for that crazy comback of alaphilippe, the rider who's been the number one for years in those kind of races. This however, doesn't mean Pogi himself has nothing to boast about in hilly stages/classics. As he almost beat MvdP in the most epic ride of the past 20 years in that stage of the Tirreno. He should've/Could've won LBL last year, came in 9th in Fleche Wallone that same year, and of course, won LBL this year.
Cool story bob... I see you think. Where does this leave us stat wise. Good you asked. As I hope you all know by now stats work like this:
Flat and mountain stats are the stats that dictate the actual speed a rider can obtain. If you have two riders who both riding at 70 effort in game. The one with the higher stat rides faster. This has two main effects and one hidden effect.
The first effect is simple, the faster you ride, the more likely you are to win.
The second effect is much more interesting gameplay wise. Most of the times you're simply following wheels, meaning a domestique might put in 80 effort, but you only have to put in 70 effort to have the same speed. Resulting in a much slower draining of your green and yellow bar. As the bars drain faster at higher effort.
The hidden effect comes from from the fact that there are two other stats that directly affect your green and yellow bar, namely END and RES. At the end of the day PCM is a game of holding on to your yellow (and green) bar for the longest.
As I explained earlier, but will do it again. SPR and Hill stats only activate during certain times in the game. As you might expect, for SPR its during (intermediate) sprints. For the Hill stat, its when effort is being pushed above 85, whith a sliding scale to 100, At 95-100 effort, the only stat that is being used is the Hill stat. between 85 and 95 its a combination of CLI and Hill. This is why Hill stat is almost the most useless stat in the game. But also a great way to give riders more "character". And why I advocate for giving MvdP such a high Hill stat.
So when riders are going uphill at lets say, 90 effort. 50% of their stats come from CLI and 50% come from Hill. At this point, all riders are losing their yellow(and red) bar at the same speed, but riders with higher stats will simply ride faster, forcing the others to either up their effort, or fail to keep up. The difference in how fast these bars drain is now only based on the END/REs stat.
So at lower effort, high base stats mean you simly dont start spending your energy at all resulting in more energy at the end of a stage.
At higher effort, high support stats simply mean you can maintain that effort for longer, resulting in more energy at the end of a stage.
For those still awake:
- On shorter climbs/hills Roglic is, in my opinion the more explosive rider, meaning he has to get higher Hill stats (not by much).
- On long climbs Pogacar is superior, meaning he has to get the Higher MTN stat.
- It's my believe that Roglic is (slightly( better in races that have more, steeper and succesive climbs, compared to less, longer, more steady climbs.
Pogi really excells in the long steady climbs of the Alps. Where Roglic is better suited to do the climbs in the Vuelta/Pyrinees, Who are often steeper, shorter but more frequent in a race. Since the latter races focus more on (bursts of) effort and recovery compared to simply being the better climber. I believe roglic should have the better RES stat. I Basically rate them excatly the same in STA, for reasons given above, and that and the base stat only affect the green bar, with pogi having the higher base stat, he'll be ever so slightly better.
TT wise i'd rate Pogacar 1 higher, up to you to decide if its 79,80 or 81. But their results are close enough imo. (there are only a handfull of TT's each year so hard to give a real solid value without it becoming to subjective).
Good to see you guys still here, the moment you have all been waiting for. In the left corner, we have Pogacar. In the right corner we have Roglic. Ladies and Gentlemen, THE STATS:
Flat: 75 /76
MTN: 83/81
DOWN: 75/75
Hill: 80/82
Cobble: whatever you guys feel like
SPR: 70/71
ACC: 76/78
TT: 79/78 ot 80/79 or 78/77 depending on your flavour of the month
PL: Who ever does a prologue anymore? mehh, same as TT, who cares, its like 1 second difference.
END: 79/79
RES: 78/80
REC: 82/77
ATT: 80/80
I hope I already made this clear by my wall of text but before you guys get your panties up in bunch I want you guys to ask yourself the following questions:
Who's are/is the best rider(s) in the following situations:
- 15+km Climb
- 5-15km Climb
- 3-5km Climb with % above 8%
- 3-5KM Climb with % below 8%
- 1.5-3km Climb With % Above 8%
- 1.5-3km Climb with % below 8%
- 0-1.5 KM Climb With % Above 8%
- 0-1.5km with % below 8%
That are 8 different types of climbs that need to covered by 2 main stats. CLI and HILL. We're limited by the games engine, and further limited by the devs deciding it was a good idea to remove the hill coefficient and only make hill stat useful above 85%. Ok, fair enough, ACC is also a main stat but only used when attacking or sprinting, guess you can add that one in.
For the first one we all agree its pogacar, The 2nd is already a bit closer between Pogi and Rogi. For the 3rd I'd lean Rogi with alaphilipe making an entrance for the win. Once we get to the shorter climbs, Alaphilippe should start pulling ahead for most people, with MvdP being a real option for the last two. As in the real world, explosiveness, pure speed and how long you can maintain an effort become more important than how good you can climb.
Edited by Ho0liGaN on 18-07-2021 03:58
Just done some tests with my new stats (all in the 2021 tour). All I can say for certain is that quick simulation is a mess. Had Mas with his 74 TT skill win the TT, 2 minutes ahead of Vingegaard with 79, Sagan coming in 4th. And Mas winning that tour with 3 minutes ahead of everyone else.
Had some more realistic results as well a couple of times With Pogacar winning like 7/10 Tours, and Roglic and vingegaard finishing 2nd and 3rd. But only if I "played" as Jumbo. Only had a handful of times where I would say, yes this is a result we'd see in real life. Where the top 5 Is basically Rogi/Pogi, carapaz, Vingegaard etc.
Most of the times, the TT results are too close when simulating, with only 30 seconds between riders like Pogi and lets say Lopez.
Had 1 tour where Van Aert went Merckx on everyone, winning 5 stages, including 1 TT, 3 Sprints, the Mont Ventoux stage and finishing 6th. (that seems normal i guess)
Testing the classics is also a shitshow, with riders like Pieter serry and Nans Peters finishing 2nd and 3rd.
Guess ill have to actually ride the races myself to get a better view of the balance
I always find that simulated stats never give a great reflection on the pros and cons of a DB but in general when Cuengo and Croatia do them for the DB they generally come out ok at least in regards who wins GT's . The real test is always actual play but of course this takes time! In fact in simulation TT's are a disaster and your results don't suprise me. In fact the only in-game simulation that seems to work imo are sprints at least on PCM 20, whilst in actual play they don't. Without doubt imo the sprint stats are broken unless something has been changed here for PCM21.
Done quite a few playtests now with both Pogi and Rogi. I feel Pogi is where he should be, the best by a fair margin, even on bad day's he had no real trouble of following and limiting losses to ~1 minute, and on good days could win up to 2-3 minutes.
Roglic however is just simply too weak with 81MTN vs 83 or even 82. Vingegaard (which I gave 82) is just as strong, while having much lower support stats.
In light of the recent olympic TT event, and my play testing I can go two ways.
Simply give Roglic 82 in MTN and call it a day, or start giving him the Pinot/Fuglsang treatment with higher base/support stats, but a low REC stat.
Basically making Roglic the strongest stage rider in 1week events, more than capable of winning the GT's but with a higher chance for bad days at the end of those GT's. The only downside here is that it might make him too strong in 1-day classics...
Edited by Ho0liGaN on 03-08-2021 17:42
Very interesting and with their being a delay with the next update (real life getting in the way for many) it gives me a chance to absorb what you've said about Roglic and I was already thinking that 81 mtn might be risky and 82 a more secure option anyway. We all know that he's capable of a very bad moment in a GT or one day race and I think the only way to simulate this is lower rec and sta but still high enough to win.
As for Vingegaard we had him at 79 mtn before the Tour and people complained that this was way too high but now we're talking 81/82 for him.
In fact Roglic has now become the new Sagan in that he's so hard to stat correctly.
I think the person you need to look at for Vinge is Carapaz. They were very equal throughout the three weeks, so that would make more sense than comparing him with Roglic and Pogacar, who should both be clearly better.
Done some more playtesting. And I must say I'm very happy with the results I got. Played with Jumbo Visma with roglic at the 82MTN but Lower REC. And still managed to win with pogi 2nd vingegaard 3rd and carapaz and lands 4th and 5th.
Also done a tour with Ineos. To see how the ai plays when you're not one of either . Managed to win the tour 2020 tour with bernal (don't think carapaz or bernal is able to win the 2021 tour with 60kms of solo TT. Had a team with basically 6 of Ineos best climbers+ganna+kwiat. Had open the bag of tricks to pull it off though. Isolating pogacar and roglic till basically only vingegaard was able to pull at the front. And attacking with Porte, Thomas and geoghan Hart. Once pogi or rogi would respond to attacks I'd let the other of them do the work. Or if both attacked I'd put all the helpers in front and keep those 2 in touching distance. Every other stage, one of would crack and lose about a minute. Came into the final TT of la planche de Belle filles with 1:05 in front of roglic, 1:20 on pogacar. And won the tour by 25 seconds on pogacar and 1:26 on roglic (seems like that low REC finally started working) landa finished 4th at 7 minutes, carapaz 5th at 10(lost 4 minutes during a MTN stage earlier and used him to provoke attacks from pogi and rogi while keeping bernal in the pack)
These results seem very realistic and it looks like the key to Roglic is to give him lower rec and sta to create the possibility of a possible crack at a crucial moment
If the results work, I can't object, but it does feel unfair to give lower rec to a rider who got 3rd, 1st, 2nd and 1st in the last 4 GTs he finished. And I know Pogacar is better with 3rd, 1st and 1st, but still.
Ollfardh wrote:
If the results work, I can't object, but it does feel unfair to give lower rec to a rider who got 3rd, 1st, 2nd and 1st in the last 4 GTs he finished. And I know Pogacar is better with 3rd, 1st and 1st, but still.
Results don't make attributes. It's the other way around.
Yes, he's fucking great, but he is also much better earlier on in races than at the very end of them.
For example in the 2018 Tour he tried to just stick with the favourites. He wasn't bad at it, he isn't the best climber so he conceded time in all 3 MTFs. But the most he lost on a stage was 1:12 in the stage 20 TT.
In the 2019 Giro he dominated the first two time trials that bookended the first week. But struggled in the second half of the race, conceded time in every single mountain stage, was dropped even before the last climb in the penultimate stage and only finished 10th in the last TT.
Even riders like Bilbao and Nibali beat him who are usually much worse in the chrono. And he had motivation to ride, to beat Landa for the podium, so it's not like he didn't care.
2019 Vuelta - that's the only time when he didn't weaken. It was his best race IMO. He didn't make an attack himself, but he reacted very quickly every time and was always very keen to work with somebody he was away with.
2020 Tour - great race also. He was in the front group in every stage except when it went up to 2300 m so of course a Colombian beat him. But then he conceded 2 minutes in the stage 20 time trial again.
2020 Vuelta - tale of two halves. First two weeks, he won 3 stages, another 2 second places, He even won his only monster climb in a GT in his career (Moncalvillo).
But then he is dropped on the Angrilu, only beats Carthy by 25 and Carapaz by 50 seconds in a 34 km time trial, then get dropped again by both on the Covatilla.
You can argue that he won and that's all that matters. But how he won is what gives you the stats, not the results themselves. And it's quite obvious that he's always better in the first half of GTs than the second. So he should have a REC that enables him to win a GT, but slightly worse than the riders he competes with. In my book, he's a 77-78.
Edited by andrew7taylor on 13-08-2021 09:28
Ollfardh wrote:
If the results work, I can't object, but it does feel unfair to give lower rec to a rider who got 3rd, 1st, 2nd and 1st in the last 4 GTs he finished. And I know Pogacar is better with 3rd, 1st and 1st, but still.
Results don't make attributes. It's the other way around.
Yes, he's fucking great, but he is also much better earlier on in races than at the very end of them.
For example in the 2018 Tour he tried to just stick with the favourites. He wasn't bad at it, he isn't the best climber so he conceded time in all 3 MTFs. But the most he lost on a stage was 1:12 in the stage 20 TT.
In the 2019 Giro he dominated the first two time trials that bookended the first week. But struggled in the second half of the race, conceded time in every single mountain stage, was dropped even before the last climb in the penultimate stage and only finished 10th in the last TT.
Even riders like Bilbao and Nibali beat him who are usually much worse in the chrono. And he had motivation to ride, to beat Landa for the podium, so it's not like he didn't care.
2019 Vuelta - that's the only time when he didn't weaken. It was his best race IMO. He didn't make an attack himself, but he reacted very quickly every time and was always very keen to work with somebody he was away with.
2020 Tour - great race also. He was in the front group in every stage except when it went up to 2300 m so of course a Colombian beat him. But then he conceded 2 minutes in the stage 20 time trial again.
2020 Vuelta - tale of two halves. First two weeks, he won 3 stages, another 2 second places, He even won his only monster climb in a GT in his career (Moncalvillo).
But then he is dropped on the Angrilu, only beats Carthy by 25 and Carapaz by 50 seconds in a 34 km time trial, then get dropped again by both on the Covatilla.
You can argue that he won and that's all that matters. But how he won is what gives you the stats, not the results themselves. And it's quite obvious that he's always better in the first half of GTs than the second. So he should have a REC that enables him to win a GT, but slightly worse than the riders he competes with. In my book, he's a 77-78.
You make a very good argument here, but I still fear we're maybe too harsh on Roglic because of one stage, the Planche des Belles Filles TT. It could have been a rec problem, but it could also have been a daily form problem.
Pogacar was a monster in this year's Tour, but we don't know how good Roglic could've been. If we look at the Olympics TT, I'd say he could've been on a very high level as well. The edge Pogacar has on Roglic shouldn't be too big in my opinion.
Ollfardh wrote:
You make a very good argument here, but I still fear we're maybe too harsh on Roglic because of one stage, the Planche des Belles Filles TT. It could have been a rec problem, but it could also have been a daily form problem.
.
That TT really needs to remembered in full context.
1) Tadrug Dopeacar was a full 1'21 ahead of Tom Dumoulin, and 1'31 up on Van Aert. This was an insanely freak performance from the radioactive drug machine.
2) Primoz was only 35" behind Van Aert, and himself 58" ahead of Uran. In any other TT setting this would be considered a strong ride. We penalise Roglic unfairly as the pre-stage expectation was a win himself.
This stage is not a representation of poor recovery skill. It's a showing of a drug addict, and of a rider we normally expect to win this ITT not quite delivering as expected but still riding competitively compared to the best in the world.
What does inform Roglic REC stat is that all but two of his GT stage wins have come in the first 13 Stages (and those two later Stage wins were in 2018 & 2019, so importance is reduced when making stats for the current DB). His 3rd week as stated above does drop away comparatively. Although i think this is more due to his training, coming into GT's at peak to claim time in early TT's, rather than an inability to race for 3-weeks.
This is part of being a TT focused GT rider, and his losses are more about measuring effort knowing he cannot always match punchier purer climbers in a head-to-head. Also why he goes so well in the Vuelta where the climbs tend to be shorter efforts than the big Tour Alpine ones.
Finally you have to consider the overall picture. His last 6 GT's were a crash, 2 wins, 2 podiums and a 4th. You simply have to give him a Top5-6 REC stat to fairly represent him, because PCM is so simplistic in stats.
I agree with a7t. Even with 76 Rec (which is decent) he is still the 2nd best GT rider in the game and won't always lose time at the end of a GT (it just happens sometimes and isn't normally a big amount of time just a few seconds or a minute which is what happens in real life).
but now we're talking 81/82 for him.
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