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PCM.daily Stat Discussion
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 24-09-2020 19:06
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Roglic was 2nd in Le Tour, and look his Palmarés the last years is amazing, he is the best for Grand Tours races |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 22:49
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Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 24-09-2020 19:06
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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jeremyrobin wrote:
Santiago Buitrago : little up in end, res and rec because18th in Down Under and 15th in Tour of Luxembourg
Bruno Armirail : little up because 18th in Tirreno Adriatico
Sébastien Reichenbach : down in downhill
Clément Russo : little up in end
Luca Mozzato : little up because 4th in Grand Prix d'Isbergues - Pas de Calais
Mathieu Burgaudeau : little up in end
While I agree on most of the points, I think the results of Buitrago say nothing about his endurance, but more about res and hill (and a little rec). The others I could agree with.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 24-09-2020 19:35
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Hans: You need to take into consideration that we are still waiting for the Ardennes classics which is the best indicator of the hill stat and the previous races with hills have all been factored in already but with Degenkolb you may well have a point.
Jeremy: Thanks for those and we will add these suggestions.
Arberg Roglic better than Pogacar I wouldn’t say that much. Pogacar is better in hill (and that point can make a difference) also better acc and rec. Overall with all things equal Roglic probably better balanced and that final TT was a something of a collapse, without that collapse he would’ve won. Personally I think Roglic has a rec issue but general opinion was against this otherwise I would’ve increased the rec difference between Roglic and Pogacar to be greater than just 4.
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| Arberg |
Posted on 24-09-2020 20:13
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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AiZaK wrote:
Roglic was 2nd in Le Tour, and look his Palmarés the last years is amazing, he is the best for Grand Tours races So why did he not win? Pogacar won time on him in the mountains and on time trials. It only got exciting because Pogacar punctured on the crosswinds stage. |
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| Arberg |
Posted on 24-09-2020 20:18
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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"Personally I think Roglic has a rec issus"
True!!! |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 24-09-2020 20:56
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Arberg wrote:
AiZaK wrote:
Roglic was 2nd in Le Tour, and look his Palmarés the last years is amazing, he is the best for Grand Tours races So why did he not win? Pogacar won time on him in the mountains and on time trials. It only got exciting because Pogacar punctured on the crosswinds stage.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the only mountain where they didn't finish together is Col de la Loze where Roglic dropped Pogacar.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Arberg |
Posted on 24-09-2020 21:39
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Ollfardh wrote:
Arberg wrote:
AiZaK wrote:
Roglic was 2nd in Le Tour, and look his Palmarés the last years is amazing, he is the best for Grand Tours races So why did he not win? Pogacar won time on him in the mountains and on time trials. It only got exciting because Pogacar punctured on the crosswinds stage.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the only mountain where they didn't finish together is Col de la Loze where Roglic dropped Pogacar. https://youtu.be/x2z9oPdYh9A |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 24-09-2020 22:06
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Arberg wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Arberg wrote:
AiZaK wrote:
Roglic was 2nd in Le Tour, and look his Palmarés the last years is amazing, he is the best for Grand Tours races So why did he not win? Pogacar won time on him in the mountains and on time trials. It only got exciting because Pogacar punctured on the crosswinds stage.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the only mountain where they didn't finish together is Col de la Loze where Roglic dropped Pogacar. https://youtu.be/x2z9oPdYh9A
That was a downhill finish and Roglic didn't really chase either. I mean the real uphill finishes.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| hansw |
Posted on 24-09-2020 22:51
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Amateur
Posts: 21
Joined: 17-07-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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@Croatia14 & Tafiolmo ok thanks for your quick answers |
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| Arberg |
Posted on 25-09-2020 02:14
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Ollfardh wrote:
Arberg wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Arberg wrote:
AiZaK wrote:
Roglic was 2nd in Le Tour, and look his Palmarés the last years is amazing, he is the best for Grand Tours races So why did he not win? Pogacar won time on him in the mountains and on time trials. It only got exciting because Pogacar punctured on the crosswinds stage.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the only mountain where they didn't finish together is Col de la Loze where Roglic dropped Pogacar. https://youtu.be/x2z9oPdYh9A
That was a downhill finish and Roglic didn't really chase either. I mean the real uphill finishes.
It is still a mountain stage and all stages count. |
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| Arberg |
Posted on 25-09-2020 15:46
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Ganna 81/82 TT |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 25-09-2020 15:49
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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It's a good thing you keep posting these things, Tafiolmo and Croatia probably didn't know the TT WC was ridden today.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Arberg |
Posted on 25-09-2020 15:54
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Ollfardh wrote:
It's a good thing you keep posting these things, Tafiolmo and Croatia probably didn't know the TT WC was ridden today.  |
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| Ho0liGaN |
Posted on 26-09-2020 03:53
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Junior Rider
Posts: 42
Joined: 30-06-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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Y'all forget previous results way to fast. The tour was missing 3 of the top sprinters in Ackermann, Groenewegen and Jakobsen. I'm not saying Bennett or ewan can't be better, but you shouldn't forget past results.
As for the whole roglic-pogacar debate. I think they are almost equal to eachother. While pogacar did win the tour in the end, his performance in that TT was something no one predicted. It's quite a shame we didn't have a flat TT to really see what his abilities are, since that result is really skewed by his climbing and recuperation abilities
For roglics result, it's clear he had a bit of an off day. The result itself wasn't that bad, top 5? 6? What was it again? Over the whole tour there wasn't a lot of difference between the two of them.
Also don't forget that roglic was dominating almost a month before the tour, in l'ain and dauphine. Personally, I think roglics' REC is pretty good. About what you'd expect for a GT winner, but just peaked too early if his top form would've been a week later I doubt he would've cracked in that TT. Pogacar on the other end has shown in both the Vuelta last year and the tour this year he has an incredible ability to recover stage to stage. Something that might have to do with his age and some advantages that might bring.
I also saw some discussion regarding MvdP, WVA and Alaphilipe. From personal in game testing. You can easily give MVP 80 Hill 78 FLA and 79/80 support stats. As long as you keep his MTN low. 70 or lower without him being overpowered in the Ardennes classics where the climbs are a little longer. I know he didn't perform the best in strade bianche and MSR, but those 2 races weren't his primary target's this year, while it was clear that to compare to WVA and Alaphilipe and their focus on the tour as well, they would have a higher form and fitness peak.
As for keeping Alaphilipe balanced it's quite simple, give him the fuglsang treatment and keep his REC low. The tour result last year was clearly motivated by him being and yellow and fighting as long as he could and overperforming compared to his normal abilities.
WVA is a lot tougher. I have reason to believe he's the most complete rider we've seen in the last 15 years. Frankly he reminds me of George hincapie. (Yes I'm old) the domestique for Lance Armstrong, who was able to rival young Tom Boonen and cancellara in the Flanders classics. And win mountain stages in the tour. WVA also has a sprint to further complete him as the best most complete rider currently in the peleton. Top 5 in multiple disciplines (TT and cobbles) top 20 in two others (climbing and sprinting) an engine big enough and legs explosive enough to rival Alaphilipe and MvdP in the (up)Hill (sprints). And to top it all of and make it impossible to balance him. He's able to do for 3 weeks without getting worse.
The only way to keep him balanced is to not give him higher than 78 in any stat, except for TT and max his climbing at 75. Of course Sta and Res can be higher, as those definitely help him achieve these results in real life. And if he still remains too strong ingame, cap his REC at 73.
I genuinely think that if he had a full team around him, and an old school tour de trance with 90km of TT like we use to have in the early 2000's he's be a top 5 candidate, while still being able to win the Flanders and Ardennes classics. And compete in mass sprints |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 26-09-2020 09:27
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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A great post as always Hooligan and we have pretty much said this in regards to the sprinters which is why Groenewegen and Ackermann are with the highest shared stats still and with Jakobsen not that far behind. We always anyway take the last year into consideration when statting especially with a rider that is not riding that well this year. FE everybody raved about Ewan winning that stage at the Tour but apart from that was down on last year and losing his main leadout on stage one probably didn't help either.
We don't really have a stat for 'rider collapse or severe crack' as I think rec unless its very low shows just a gradual decline or random off days in the third week of a GT for the concerned rider. I remember some years ago in playing the Giro I had on two occasions Spilak pushing top 5 overall with just 70 rec, proving that even with low rec combined with possible good form what a rider can still do. So for me Roglic is a rider that is capable of having strong cracks or a collpse which could often be the result of peaking too early or some other issue and the only way we can actually attempt to measure this is with 'rec' which is why I personally would've given him less than 76 as exampled at the final stage of the Tour and last year's Giro. Even with a lower rec than 76 he could still win a GT like the Vuelta last year as his other stats still make him the best GT rider in the DB. My idea was to make the best GT rider BUT with an achilles heel.
The problem we have found with riders like WVA, VDP and even Pedersen is that with high stats in nearly everything especially WVA is that they get team leadership in GT's over what would actually be the proper team leaders like Roglic, Dumoulin and Porte in this example and we are doing testing here to see how detrimental this could possibly be in how the game AI focuses these teams.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 26-09-2020 09:33
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 26-09-2020 09:37
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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So we all saw Ganna's amazing TT at the Worlds and I know he had one at the TA too (which I didn't see till after the update release) So the question is, is Ganna the best TT rider overall or just say at shorter-medium TT lengths as the Worlds TT wasn't as long as I thought it was going to be? Has Dennis just come from lockdown less prepared etc than he normally would've been is another question especially if we take last year into consideration.
So TT stats below welcome before the RR comes up.
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| hansw |
Posted on 26-09-2020 12:09
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Amateur
Posts: 21
Joined: 17-07-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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I would upgrade Ganna (81), Leknessund (76), Küng (79 or 80), Thomas (79), Sütterlin (76) and downgrade Campenaerts (80). edit: Walscheid maybe 73 or 74. Roglic 79, because he had one not so good TT at TdF, but won 3 of 4 ITTs at Giro and Vuelta last year (i think/not sure).
Edited by hansw on 26-09-2020 12:17
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 26-09-2020 12:17
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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For TT I think everyone is a lot closer than the last 10 years, you don't have a Martin, Cancellara or Dennis winning everything by minutes anymore. I would give a few people very similar stats: Ganna, WVA, Dennis, Campenaerts, Kung, Thomas, Dumoulin and Evenepoel should all be really close.
I don't think the comparison Hincapie/Wout is correct, yes, Hincapie started off as a sprinter, tried to be a GC rider and had some success at the classics, but that was in different parts of his career, Wout is doing it all at the same time (and is also a lot better imo). I think Geraint Thomas comes closest, but even there there's some time between him competing for the cobbled classics and dropping Froome's opponents in the mountains.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ho0liGaN |
Posted on 26-09-2020 16:38
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Junior Rider
Posts: 42
Joined: 30-06-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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Ollfardh wrote:
For TT I think everyone is a lot closer than the last 10 years, you don't have a Martin, Cancellara or Dennis winning everything by minutes anymore. I would give a few people very similar stats: Ganna, WVA, Dennis, Campenaerts, Kung, Thomas, Dumoulin and Evenepoel should all be really close.
I don't think the comparison Hincapie/Wout is correct, yes, Hincapie started off as a sprinter, tried to be a GC rider and had some success at the classics, but that was in different parts of his career, Wout is doing it all at the same time (and is also a lot better imo). I think Geraint Thomas comes closest, but even there there's some time between him competing for the cobbled classics and dropping Froome's opponents in the mountains.
Hincapie might not have been the best comparison. But I named him because in 2005 he won Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, came second in Paris-Roubaix and won the Queens Stage in that years tour from an attack vs riders like Boogerd, Pereiro and Caucchioli. All of them riders that we can compare to someone like Fuglsang these days.
Geraint Thomas is another good comparison though, and a more recent one for our younger members  |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 26-09-2020 18:14
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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The TT Stats will be very similar near the top and some interesting observations. I don't think Campanaerts should be decreased that much as he is the hour record holder and that was over more than 50kms but I admit you never know how he's going to go. Also just how good is Van Aert at TT, he has a three week Tour in his legs after slaving away for Roglic and winning stages, so had he been much fresher how much faster could've he have gone. The current trend for the DB also is to not increase the TT of stage race riders like Roglic, Dumoulin and Thomas and in fact the first two have had a recent decrease to balance them a bit more for GT races.
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