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PCM.daily Stat Discussion
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 23-09-2020 13:01
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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I'd say VDP looks ok as he is and we do need to wait for the classics. He has been winning some races but has been overshadowed by the success of both WVA and Remco before his crash.
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| einar99 |
Posted on 23-09-2020 13:22
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Amateur
Posts: 13
Joined: 25-03-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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What? That doesn't make a lot of sense. His last 3 performances in TA, NC and EC was pretty special. In the nationals he destroyed Jumbo Visma all by himself and attacked with almost 50k to go and won by 1:31. In the European champs he had very limited help again, made a handful of big attacks and still had enough energy to sprint faster than Demare, Nizzolo and Ackermann (He ended up in 4th because of no team help in the sprint and being blocked by Nizzolo, but was clearly the fastest). And then in the TA he showcased his incredible capabilities again up that last climb after having spent all day in the break. And I didn't even mention the greatest performance in modern cycling history (Yeah better than Froome in the Giro) in the Amstel Gold Race last year. Tell me again he deserves a downgrade |
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| einar99 |
Posted on 23-09-2020 13:31
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Amateur
Posts: 13
Joined: 25-03-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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But anyway, what about Marc Hirschi? |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 23-09-2020 13:49
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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A downgrade for VDP certainly not and I'm sure there will be upgrades for him soon.
Hirschi:
Mtn/Hill 75/76
Flat/Cob 75/73
Spr/Acc 73/76
TT/Pro 71/72
Sta/Res 77/76
Rec/DH/FT 74/78/78
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 23-09-2020 13:58
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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einar99 wrote:
What? That doesn't make a lot of sense. His last 3 performances in TA, NC and EC was pretty special. In the nationals he destroyed Jumbo Visma all by himself and attacked with almost 50k to go and won by 1:31. In the European champs he had very limited help again, made a handful of big attacks and still had enough energy to sprint faster than Demare, Nizzolo and Ackermann (He ended up in 4th because of no team help in the sprint and being blocked by Nizzolo, but was clearly the fastest). And then in the TA he showcased his incredible capabilities again up that last climb after having spent all day in the break. And I didn't even mention the greatest performance in modern cycling history (Yeah better than Froome in the Giro) in the Amstel Gold Race last year. Tell me again he deserves a downgrade
I think many people were expecting big things from him in Strade and San Remo, but he disappointed in both races. Simply dropped in Strade and not good enough to follow the attacks in San Remo, so I don't see why he should have equal FL and RES stats to WVA as you suggested.
Last race AGR is already accounted for in his stats. The smaller races should not have as big an impact as the monuments.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| einar99 |
Posted on 23-09-2020 14:13
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Amateur
Posts: 13
Joined: 25-03-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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Well, him being "simply dropped" in Strade certainly needs some context. He punctured, had to get in touch with the group again, and burned out in the scorching heat (almost 40 degrees if I'm not mistaken). San Remo yes, but I remind you that WVA participated in Amstel last year too and got smacked badly by Mathieu. So in my opinion you can't use San Remo to say that Wout is better at those shorter climbs. He is probably better in longer mountains and TT I'll give you that. But MvdP is just as good and in some cases better, in virtually everything else |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 23-09-2020 14:27
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Well, WVA clearly made progress after from year, while you can't say the same for Mathieu. Aside from the acceleration and the bike handling, I think WVA is better in every aspect at the moment (climbing, sprinting, TT, definitely also recovery), with cobbled skill yet to be determined in the upcoming classics.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| einar99 |
Posted on 23-09-2020 14:39
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Amateur
Posts: 13
Joined: 25-03-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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I agree with the recovery part, forgot about that one. But pure strength on flat roads and the ability to not only accelerate fast but many times within a short period of time is probably Mathieu's strongest attributes and he should be superior to anyone there.
I would stat them something like this (MvdP/WVA):
FL: 81/79
MO: 70/76
HI: 78/78
DO: 83/81
CO: Yet to be determined. As of right now 78/78 (But I think both will be 80 after the classics)
RES: 80/79
REC: 71/77
STA: 78/78
SPR: 78/79
ACC: 82/78
TT: 75/79
Edited by einar99 on 23-09-2020 14:44
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 18:13
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Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 23-09-2020 15:45
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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I think FL and RES should be in WVA's favor as well, but other than that I can live with those numbers. I think overall Wout has the bigger engine and is the better rider at the moment, while Mathieu was the better rider for me last year.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 23-09-2020 15:54
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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I agree Van der Poel need a push, he deserves more hill and sprint like a 77 or 78 in hill, and 77 spr and 82 acc
And about Marc Hirschi for me is 77 in hills |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 23-09-2020 16:42
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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On the last couple of pages I recognized some issues I'd quickly like to adress:
1. Recency Bias: To me it seems that races since the corona pandemic have way too much influence on stat proposals recently. On the one hand I agree that with the pandemic buffer recent results in comparison to past ones should count a little more than the usually do. On the other hand, we've seen many riders that did not have had their peak form yet. From a season standpoint we're sitting in March or April in comparison, where we'd usually won't judge all the big guns, cause some still have their peak to come. I'm speaking of riders that have their obvious planned peak later in the classics or World Championships (Naesen, van der Poel, Valverde, Küng, Dennis to name some), while other focus on later GTs or recover from injuries at the wrong time (Nibali, Hagen, Thomas, de Plus the first to my mind). While there is a lot to read into recent results, please keep these developments in mind when proposing stats.
2. Stat Combinations: The other thing I've figured out in need to be adressed is how some stats influence the performance of many others. Especially this is necessary to be said for allrounders, as they perform much better than they used to in former PCMs (like PCM15). Van Aert or Van der Poel with some of the proposed stats would be potentially the best riders in the Ardennes, Van Aert on 76 Mo would be a GT Top5 candidate. We recently ran tests on several Tour de France variants, and Alaphilippe with 77 Mountain was a regular Top5 threat. While yes, he finished there last year, he was never there before or after and didn't ever finish on the podium of another WT Stage Race. Riders with great stat combinations will feel much better than their main stats suggest, that's why we are very careful with increasing such riders too much.
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 23-09-2020 18:02
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Croatia14, I agree with you so I would change Alaphilippe 76 in mountain and maybe less Rec?? |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 23-09-2020 19:35
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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AiZaK wrote:
Croatia14, I agree with you so I would change Alaphilippe 76 in mountain and maybe less Rec??
He had already been reduced some days ago to 76 mtn and less rec.
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 23-09-2020 22:53
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Perfect |
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| valencianista77 |
Posted on 23-09-2020 23:01
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Amateur
Posts: 15
Joined: 22-03-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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Thank you very much for your work, it is incredible!
When will the database be available? Could it be this week? |
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 24-09-2020 08:35
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Team Manager
Posts: 6508
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1090.00
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The stat update will most likely be published later today; tomorrow at the latest.
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| hansw |
Posted on 24-09-2020 16:55
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Amateur
Posts: 21
Joined: 17-07-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Thanks for the wonderful update! Just few notes from me: I rate Sosa and Higuita roughly the same. So maybe both 78 in Mountain. Stuyven (76), Hofstetter (77), Walscheid (78) and Teunissen (78) I rate at least as good as Degenkolb (79). Coquard (78), Trentin (78) and Mezgec (77) are better than him I think. So maybe Degenkolb -1 (in Sprint or nearly all). I would say that the difference between Alaphilippe (82) and Wellens (79) and especially Teuns (79) with 3 points is too big. Others might come into question. So maybe Teuns and Wellens 80? But just my opinion. Thank you! (edit Hirschi -5 compare to Ala, maybe higher, too)
Edited by hansw on 24-09-2020 17:19
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| jeremyrobin |
Posted on 24-09-2020 17:02
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Under 23
Posts: 59
Joined: 29-09-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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Santiago Buitrago : little up in end, res and rec because18th in Down Under and 15th in Tour of Luxembourg
Bruno Armirail : little up because 18th in Tirreno Adriatico
Sébastien Reichenbach : down in downhill
Clément Russo : little up in end
Luca Mozzato : little up because 4th in Grand Prix d'Isbergues - Pas de Calais
Mathieu Burgaudeau : little up in end |
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| Arberg |
Posted on 24-09-2020 18:40
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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You've done Roglic better than Pogacar. Which is a big mistake, as Pogacar is the best and wins the tour  |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 24-09-2020 19:04
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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hansw wrote:
Thanks for the wonderful update! Just few notes from me: I rate Sosa and Higuita roughly the same. So maybe both 78 in Mountain. Stuyven (76), Hofstetter (77), Walscheid (78) and Teunissen (78) I rate at least as good as Degenkolb (79). Coquard (78), Trentin (78) and Mezgec (77) are better than him I think. So maybe Degenkolb -1 (in Sprint or nearly all). I would say that the difference between Alaphilippe (82) and Wellens (79) and especially Teuns (79) with 3 points is too big. Others might come into question. So maybe Teuns and Wellens 80? But just my opinion. Thank you! (edit Hirschi -5 compare to Ala, maybe higher, too)
I agree on your assessment of Degenkolb and Sosa/Higuita in general. However, With Higuitas Hill and other stats he'd feel similar to Sosa with 2 points less in Mountain even. Degenkolb could well be a 78 indeed. I can also understand the point, but as Alaphilippe (besides Fuglsang and Valverde) clearly was the best Ardennes rider of the last 3 years, so he should be significantly better than those imo, as the Ardennes are still the "queen decider" for hill quality, especially Fleche Wallone as the most pure hill race of all.
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