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PCM.daily Stat Discussion
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 20-09-2020 15:39
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Forever the Best wrote:
Tafiolmo wrote:
I wouldn't make Pogacar a better TT rider than Roglic and certainly not Dumoulin. Roglic cracked terribly yesterday but is a proven TT specialist but given the fact that Pogacar has beaten Roglic twice in mtn TT he does need to have a stat that is close to Roglic, so beating him will be possible.
To know how good Pogacar is at TT we really need to see him in a long flat TT.
Bear in mind that GT riders usually do well in TT in the final week if their rec is good anyway, so they don't need a TT stat as high as specialist like Dennis, Ganna etc
Will be revising TT for the update too but bear in mind the Worlds is very close by. Pogacar was already 36 seconds or so faster than Roglic in the flat part and his time was similar to Dumoulin on the flat part.
Good point in regards to career.
We also have to think of yesterday if it were in game terms as a +5 day for Pogacar and a - day for Roglic which does make a notable difference in game terms.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 20-09-2020 15:47
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Team Manager
Posts: 6508
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1090.00
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Forever the Best wrote:
Tafiolmo wrote:
I wouldn't make Pogacar a better TT rider than Roglic and certainly not Dumoulin. Roglic cracked terribly yesterday but is a proven TT specialist but given the fact that Pogacar has beaten Roglic twice in mtn TT he does need to have a stat that is close to Roglic, so beating him will be possible.
To know how good Pogacar is at TT we really need to see him in a long flat TT.
Bear in mind that GT riders usually do well in TT in the final week if their rec is good anyway, so they don't need a TT stat as high as specialist like Dennis, Ganna etc
Will be revising TT for the update too but bear in mind the Worlds is very close by. Pogacar was already 36 seconds or so faster than Roglic in the flat part and his time was similar to Dumoulin on the flat part.
Keep in mind that we're also working with daily form though. It does seem like it's consensus that Poga had a very good and Roglic a subpar day. Say Poga was at +4 and Roglic at even only -1. In PCM terms, that can be a swing of easily 5-6 stat points. In addition, it was day 20 of a GT and Poga will have better recovery than Roglic. A result like yesterday will still be possible even if Poga is 2-3 points weaker on paper in TT than Roglic.
€: Good ol' Zabel'd 
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| Forever the Best |
Posted on 20-09-2020 15:52
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3803
Joined: 27-06-2014
PCM$: 400.00
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Yeah can be, the only PCM game I played was PCM 2010 back in 2014-2015, so I don't know how important the effects of daily form and secondary stats are in the current PCM's. But Pogacar's TT was astounding.
The user formerly known as 'The Schleck Fan'
Gracias Alberto.
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| Arberg |
Posted on 20-09-2020 18:16
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Pedersen 79/80 SP ? |
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 20-09-2020 18:21
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Imo Pedersen SPR 78 and ACC 79/80 |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 20-09-2020 18:26
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Pogacar was on top form, that's for sure. However we have to note a couple of things about the ITT.
1. Pogacar is known for possessing extraordinary recovery abilities. Matxin said before the big success of Pogi already that we is a wonderkid in terms of how his body recovers after efforts on day(s) before.
2. The ITT was one that in PCM would almost solely determined by the MO stat. The Climbing abilities had the biggest impact on the result.
3. Wind played a significant role in the ITT. The headwind was much stronger later in the race, which makes Pogacars time even more impressive, but also explains why riders like Cavagna went so well. I guess it also explains why a rider like Lopez completely blew up.
4. Bike changes played a huge role two. Pogacar had a good one, Roglic had a shitty one that cost him a few seconds, not too much though. The major difference was Dumoulin who went with no bike change, and it's not unlikely that he could've contested Pogacar if he would have changed the bike, as analytics are almost unanimous on a significantly positive effect of the bike change.
5. This ITT is a lot less valuable in determining the ITT stat of riders than most other ITTs. Recovery, Mountain abilities, how deep riders went on the day before and the other significant challenges I've mentioned show why one shouldn't judge the ITT stat too far from here. There is a reason why Alaphilippe won the ITT on last years TDF but should in no way considered be a top class time triallists.
While the Tour usually is the best predictor for top stats, it is not the case for the ITT stat if it's that late in the race on that profile in that szenario. In fact, it tells almost as much about how energy stats should be modelled than it tells about the time trialling ability of a rider. |
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 20-09-2020 21:18
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Guys any changes with Top Sprinters??? |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 20-09-2020 21:32
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Aizak here you go and have put some of the sprinters of note:
I played the Tour de France with correct startlist with the sprinters that were in the Tour and with these stats Bennett won the most stages three in total and like irl the green jersey and amazingly Sagan was second but Bennett won by a bigger points margin than irl. Ewan didn’t win a stage at all BUT stages were won by both Bol and Pedersen with these stats. Also WVA finished in second and third place a couple of times. Overall I felt the results were quite realistic and shows that a slow acc rider like Bol can win a stage with a good leadout as he had some of the best leadouts in the race. After the Giro we will have a clearer picture with Ackermann and Gaviria racing there.
In fact the only debate below is with Pedersen who could be higher sprint and lower acc but I did find him to be very realistic in-game with this sprint stat.
Groenewegen 82/82
Ackermann 82/81
Ewan 81/83
Bennett 81/82
Viviani 81/82
Gaviria 81/81
Demare 81/78
Jakobsen 80/82
Nizzolo 80/81
Kristoff 80/77
Bol 80/76
Sagan 79/80
WVA 79/77
Pedersen 78/79
Coquard 78/79
Edited by Tafiolmo on 20-09-2020 21:54
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 17:36
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 20-09-2020 23:03
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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I agree, I only would change Bennet SPR 82 and maybe Ackermann and Groenewegen 83
You put the mountain stat limit in 83, I think the best is to do the same with Sprint Stats, Its possible to do more difference between riders |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 20-09-2020 23:12
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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We could easily stretch the sprinters out further and would be even easier to do than the GT riders as there are less other stats to consider in general, will look at this tomorrow.
At the moment we are busy testing in 3D all the GT riders in the Tour de France before the new stats are released .
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 20-09-2020 23:15
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1190
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Perfect, thx guys! |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 20-09-2020 23:24
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Hmm, I think Bennett and Ewan deserve a bit better. TDF is the biggest race there is for sprinters and they dominated it this year. Especially Groenewegen I don't think has done much this year, aside from trying to kill Jakobsen. Ackermann I can understand more, but still, if you want to be the highest rated sprinter, you need to come to le Tour and prove it. On the other hand Bennett is the only guy who could keep Sagan from the green jersey in 8 years (not counting the dsq year) and Ewan has 5 TDF stage wins in the last two years. I think they should be up there at 82 with Ackermann and Groenewegen.
I think your idea of giving everyone 82 MO could also work for the top sprinters all on 82 SPR, after all I think it's fair to say that in the currect generation we have not one sprinter really standing out, like Cipo, Cav or Kittel did in the past.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| MartijnVDD |
Posted on 21-09-2020 07:21
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 801
Joined: 26-06-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Another sprinter who has shown himself the last few weeks is Tim Merlier. Does he get an upgrade? |
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| Arberg |
Posted on 21-09-2020 08:03
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Ollfardh wrote:
Hmm, I think Bennett and Ewan deserve a bit better. TDF is the biggest race there is for sprinters and they dominated it this year. Especially Groenewegen I don't think has done much this year, aside from trying to kill Jakobsen. Ackermann I can understand more, but still, if you want to be the highest rated sprinter, you need to come to le Tour and prove it. On the other hand Bennett is the only guy who could keep Sagan from the green jersey in 8 years (not counting the dsq year) and Ewan has 5 TDF stage wins in the last two years. I think they should be up there at 82 with Ackermann and Groenewegen.
I think your idea of giving everyone 82 MO could also work for the top sprinters all on 82 SPR, after all I think it's fair to say that in the currect generation we have not one sprinter really standing out, like Cipo, Cav or Kittel did in the past.
Agree! |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 21-09-2020 09:39
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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How does this look? I've put the top sprinters with the following thoughts. That if all are fully fit etc Groenewegen is the fastest and actually his results against the other sprinters this year has been good (check his results) Ewan the most spectacular with that acc and last year's Tour De France but Bennett and Ackermann the most consistent. I will change some of the back-up stats a bit as well especially for Bennett
Groenewegen 83/82
Ewan 82/83
Ackermann 82/82
Bennett 82/82
Viviani 81/82
Jakobsen 81/82
Nizzolo 81/81
Gaviria 81/81
Demare 81/78
Kristoff 80/77
Bol 80/76
Sagan 79/80
WVA 79/77
Pedersen 78/79
Coquard 78/79
Merlier is 78/80 but I think will be better now with the stretch out to 79/81. Also Ewan could be 81/83 and Groenewegen 83/81 for more variety but these are riskier stats.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 21-09-2020 09:52
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Well, I see Groenewegen has 2 stage wins in Valencia and 1 in UAE, not the biggest races and Valencia didn't have much competition either. Pologne probably the biggest race he was in and he would've been beaten by Jakobsen there.
So looking back at the season before might be better, he had 1 TDF stage win, while Ewan had 3. All in all, I don't think Groenewegen should be above the rest.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 21-09-2020 10:00
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Ollfardh wrote:
Well, I see Groenewegen has 2 stage wins in Valencia and 1 in UAE, not the biggest races and Valencia didn't have much competition either. Pologne probably the biggest race he was in and he would've been beaten by Jakobsen there.
So looking back at the season before might be better, he had 1 TDF stage win, while Ewan had 3. All in all, I don't think Groenewegen should be above the rest.
But that one stage win was against Bennett, Ackermann and Gaviria and these middle east races are normally good indicators for sprinters as they are usually totally flat.
Groenewegen is the hardest to stat and could be 83/82, 83/81 or 82/82 imo
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| Arberg |
Posted on 21-09-2020 10:01
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Ollfardh wrote:
Well, I see Groenewegen has 2 stage wins in Valencia and 1 in UAE, not the biggest races and Valencia didn't have much competition either. Pologne probably the biggest race he was in and he would've been beaten by Jakobsen there.
So looking back at the season before might be better, he had 1 TDF stage win, while Ewan had 3. All in all, I don't think Groenewegen should be above the rest.
Agree again! |
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| Arberg |
Posted on 21-09-2020 10:02
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 265
Joined: 09-04-2018
PCM$: 200.00
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Tafiolmo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Well, I see Groenewegen has 2 stage wins in Valencia and 1 in UAE, not the biggest races and Valencia didn't have much competition either. Pologne probably the biggest race he was in and he would've been beaten by Jakobsen there.
So looking back at the season before might be better, he had 1 TDF stage win, while Ewan had 3. All in all, I don't think Groenewegen should be above the rest.
But that one stage win was against Bennett, Ackermann and Gaviria and these middle east races are normally good indicators for sprinters as they are usually totally flat.
Groenewegen is the hardest to stat and could be 83/82, 83/81 or 82/82 imo 82/82 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 21-09-2020 10:03
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Also good to see Merlier get an upgrade, he's winning a lot lately, but the entire team might need a boost as they're really flying lately, possibly getting ready for the WT. Vermeersch and Rickaert won classics, Meisen won the German NC and guys like Krieger and De Bondt are also having a good season.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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