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Balkans International Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 03-07-2020 16:32
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3918
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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 Balkans International
The PTHC Balkans International returns for its second season. The parcours remains unchanged: the race covers 6 countries across 8 days with 6 hilly stages and 2 for the sprinters (stages 2 and 7). With the hilly stages featuring a lot of tough climbs but nothing decisive we could see a final showdown on the climb to Ligkiades at the end of stage 8.
But starting at the beginning - the race opens with 187km of up and down climbing going from Ljubljana to Zagreb. After that we have a flat stage to Prijedor in Bosnia, the third country covered in the first two stages. After two days touring Bosnia, stage 5 sees a return to Croatia with a stage finish in the historic seaside resort of Dubrovnik. From there the race heads south through Montenegro and Albania before the grand finale in Greece on the aforementioned climb, which concludes the brutal 225km final stage. More on each of those stages as we get to them.
Last year the race was won by Jan Bakelants with Bobridge, Lutsenko, Mohoric and Van Garderen completing the top 5. Van Garderen won 3 stages and the points but Bakelants took the decisive stage 8. But the race features some long climbs and while the puncheurs dominated last year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more balanced climbers featuring this year.
All of those top 5 except the winner are back this year. And joining them are top puncheurs like  Skujins,  Sagan and man game legend  Hagen. Let’s look at the puncheurs in more detail, the table below looks at all the riders with hill over 79 and mountain under 75:
| PL | MT | HI | AC | RS | | Hagen | 77 | 70 | 85 | 79 | 74 |  Lutsenko | 69 | 73 | 83 | 81 | 73 | | Sagan | 72 | 74 | 83 | 76 | 74 |  Bobridge | 73 | 69 | 83 | 80 | 74 | | Skujins | 70 | 70 | 83 | 76 | 77 |  De Bie | 73 | 71 | 83 | 75 | 76 |  Mohoric | 72 | 71 | 83 | 77 | 72 |  Kinoshita | 73 | 72 | 82 | 77 | 77 |  Van Garderen | 73 | 72 | 82 | 79 | 75 |  Kelderman | 70 | 71 | 82 | 72 | 75 |  Di Maggio | 65 | 65 | 82 | 75 | 68 |  Schreurs | 70 | 69 | 81 | 74 | 72 |  Ginanni | 71 | 68 | 81 | 71 | 75 |  Borges | 70 | 70 | 80 | 81 | 73 |  Waeytens | 70 | 71 | 80 | 73 | 70 |  Ulissi | 76 | 66 | 80 | 75 | 71 |  Flügel | 68 | 71 | 80 | 72 | 65 |  Dowsett | 70 | 65 | 80 | 71 | 69 |  Zaini | 66 | 66 | 80 | 70 | 65 |
If mountain skills are to play a role but aren’t decisive then Lutsenko and Sagan are strong candidates. Hagen obviously has great all around stats. The riders listed from Bobridge to Van Garderen are all strong in most areas and are hard to separate. Below them we get to riders with more clear weaknesses. It seems like the riders who are really weak on longer climbs will struggle in this race.
But if mountain proves important then a different set of riders enter the equation. The table below reflects all entrants with MT and HI both over 75
| PL | MT | HI | AC | RS |  Beltran | 69 | 79 | 81 | 76 | 72 | | Buchmann | 71 | 76 | 80 | 73 | 74 | | Zardini | 69 | 76 | 77 | 68 | 66 | | Guldhammer | 68 | 81 | 77 | 76 | 75 | | Jang | 67 | 76 | 76 | 74 | 70 | | Henao | 65 | 76 | 76 | 70 | 73 |  Arndt | 71 | 79 | 76 | 75 | 76 |
PCT rider Beltran immediately catches the eyes. If an ability on the longer climbs is pivotal then he has by far the best combination of mountain and hill in the race. The question is will his slightly weaker secondary skills undermine his effectiveness. Buchmann, Arndt and Guldhammer are balanced riders who might reward their managers for sending a different kind skill set to this race. T-Mobile’s leadership depth is impressive with 2 riders on this list plus Van Garderen.
As better gauge of team depth we counted the number of riders with either MT or HI over 75 and the number where both were over 72 and got the table below by team.
| Either over 75 | Both over 72 | | Gazelle | 6 | 2 | | Carrefour - ESPN | 5 | 3 | | Evonik - ELKO | 5 | 3 | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | 5 | 2 | | Generali | 4 | 4 | | SPAR - Siam Cement | 4 | 4 | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | 4 | 3 | | Aegon - Lavazza | 4 | 2 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 4 | 2 | | Team Europcar | 4 | 1 | | Air France - KLM | 4 | 0 | | Delvaux | 4 | 0 | | Swisslion Cycling Team | 3 | 3 | | Team Puma - SAP | 3 | 3 | | Duolingo | 3 | 2 | | Isostar - LimeBike | 3 | 2 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 3 | 2 | | T-Mobile | 3 | 2 | | Rakuten Pro Cycling | 3 | 1 | | Kulczyk - Alitalia | 3 | 0 | | Philips | 3 | 0 | | Andorra Cycling Project | 2 | 1 | | ENI - MOL | 2 | 0 | | Moser - Sygic | 1 | 1 |
Gazzelle and Carrefour have strength in numbers with many excellent riders but no standout leader. Skujins and Lutsenko have the best support among the identified favorites and White Jersey contender  Padun also has strong team support.
But there are 2 stages of this race where none of that matter and the peloton will turn things over to the sprinters (although a breakaway win seems quite likely on stage 7). The race features 15 79+ SP sprinters.
| PL | SP | AC | RS | | Maksimov | 71 | 81 | 84 | 69 | | Kip | 70 | 80 | 82 | 63 | | Vesely | 73 | 81 | 80 | 68 | | Avelino | 64 | 83 | 78 | 66 | | Kump | 74 | 81 | 80 | 73 | | Lutsyshyn | 60 | 79 | 80 | 73 | | Matthews | 67 | 79 | 79 | 67 | | Willwohl | 65 | 79 | 78 | 67 | | Bouhanni | 74 | 80 | 77 | 69 | | Pelucchi | 70 | 79 | 77 | 70 | | Peeters | 78 | 79 | 77 | 68 | | Soupe | 72 | 79 | 77 | 69 | | Te Brake | 67 | 79 | 76 | 72 | | Colbrelli | 76 | 79 | 75 | 72 | | Tzortzakis | 69 | 79 | 74 | 61 |
No one of these riders stands out. A lot of second tier sprinters hoping to pick up a cheap win in a climbers race. Kump is an interesting rider. with his ability in the hills, he has to be a candidate for not just the sprint stages but some of the hilly ones as well.
Overall with the balanced parcours and the variety of riders the race is hard to predict. Going out on the limb, Stage 3 with its long climbs seems likely to be significant, if the punchy riders survive that near the front then they will be in with a chance. If not the more balanced climbers will be battling it out for the GC on the climb to Ligkiades
Full Start List
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Siam Cement | Lutsenko | Alexey | | SPAR - Siam Cement | Bouhanni | Nacer | | SPAR - Siam Cement | Sirironnachai | Sarawut | | SPAR - Siam Cement | Gidich | Yevgeniy | | SPAR - Siam Cement | Jang | Gyung Gu | | SPAR - Siam Cement | Azman | Muhamad Zawawi | | SPAR - Siam Cement | Marzuki | Nur Amirul | | SPAR - Siam Cement | Eislers | Sandis | | Swisslion Cycling Team | Beltran | Eduard Alexander | | Swisslion Cycling Team | Seibeb | Costa | | Swisslion Cycling Team | Pibernik | Luka | | Swisslion Cycling Team | Petrovski | Stefan | | Swisslion Cycling Team | Kasa | Gabor | | Swisslion Cycling Team | Poljanec | Miha | | Swisslion Cycling Team | Penko | Izidor | | Swisslion Cycling Team | Martinez | Daniel Felipe | | Team Europcar | Zaini | Tommy | | Team Europcar | Calmejane | Lilian | | Team Europcar | Matthews | Michael | | Team Europcar | Henao | Sebastian | | Team Europcar | Honkisz | Adrian | | Team Europcar | Tybor | Patrik | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | Padun | Mark | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | Andriafenomananiaina | Zouzou | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | Krasnoperov | Mikayil | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | Laas | Martin | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | Tanovitchii | Nicolae | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | Polivoda | Oleksandr | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | Lutsyshyn | Roman | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | Budyak | Anatoliy | | Team Puma - SAP | Felline | Fabio | | Team Puma - SAP | Arndt | Nikias | | Team Puma - SAP | Declerq | Tim | | Team Puma - SAP | Mager | Christian | | Team Puma - SAP | Bevin | Patrick | | Team Puma - SAP | Wackermann | Luca | | Team Puma - SAP | Niu | Yikui | | Team Puma - SAP | Madouas | Valentin | | T-Mobile | Van Garderen | Tejay | | T-Mobile | Trentin | Matteo | | T-Mobile | Guldhammer | Rasmus | | T-Mobile | Buchmann | Emanuel | | T-Mobile | Favilli | Elia | | T-Mobile | Schwarzmann | Michael | | T-Mobile | Kanepejs | Deins | | T-Mobile | Lecourt De Billot | Olivier |
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 03-07-2020 17:47
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World Champion
Posts: 12429
Joined: 20-05-2009
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Hoping for a good race from Kinoshita here. His MO gives him a slight advantage over a couple better HIL riders, but Beltran and Buchmann look dangerous too. I think Sagan, Hagen, Beltran, Lutsenko and Buchmann are the favourites, so Kinoshita getting in the Top 5 would be good here. 6th-8th is about what Im expecting though.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 03-07-2020 17:50
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11786
Joined: 19-07-2010
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Too many mountainous climbs for Bobridge here. Still a pity, but we got used to it by now. Maybe he can hunt a stage or two, but he shouldn't be a factor for the GC.
If the game actually knows this, I hope for guys like Miller, Phelan or maybe even Smith to go for breakaways. Particularly Miller and also Lane or Phelan often tend to be aggressive early into stages.
Thanks for the nice preview!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-07-2020 17:55
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15025
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 11500.00
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Some points would be nice for a change..
Zico, just stop trying and get some bottles for Oomen. Some sprint points would be nice as well.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 06-12-2025 23:28
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 03-07-2020 18:13
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2543
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Any points for Kraftwerk will be welcome.
Thanks for the preview Ulrich.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 03-07-2020 20:24
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9137
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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I already know this race will be the most painful of the season given my pre-race expectations. Home race, let's get something out of it.
Rooting for Beltran to win the GC, should be either him, Guldhammer or Hagen.
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 03-07-2020 20:32
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2130
Joined: 11-07-2010
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Better field than I had hoped for. Looking for a top 10 for Schreurs, but that may prove difficult to achieve. Could be a few good opportunities for Kreder, though, and I hope to see Vichot active in breakaways again.
Edited by Sykkel_Freak on 03-07-2020 20:38
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| knockout |
Posted on 03-07-2020 20:35
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
I already know this race will be the most painful of the season given my pre-race expectations.
This goes for me as well. I had huuuge expectations in this during planning and have to fear that Skujins finishes far below those expectations. Hilly stage race without a TT looked so sweet - especially with it being described as a "puncheurs race" in the pthc thread which used to mean that the mo/hi ratios are set in favor of these riders - even on stages that might look harder (s3). Now that it doesnt work like that anymore, i have no clue what i can expect of Skujins anymore.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| ember |
Posted on 03-07-2020 21:27
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Team Leader
Posts: 7058
Joined: 27-03-2008
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Wow, what a team T-Mobile has put here!  They really need the win as well, fighting against relegation. Must say I cheer for them here, and with especially Guldhammer and Buchmann, they must surely hope for a rider on the podium, and maybe the other in the top 10 or even better too.
Beltran and maybe Sagan and EBH could be their most dangerous competitors, I guess. |
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 03-07-2020 21:33
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3060
Joined: 15-07-2007
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Ouch, what a field  |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 03-07-2020 21:52
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Team Leader
Posts: 6177
Joined: 20-07-2008
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Stuffed startlist with a high unpredictability index. It should be fun... or not. Looking forward to it either way!
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 03-07-2020 23:06
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4616
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After the debacle in Portugal, I’ve got a feeling MO is gonna be very important here, Beltran and Buchmann surely gonna do much better than you’d think.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-07-2020 05:37
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Team Leader
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The coolest race in the coolest place 
With Beltran we have a rider to perform at our home race and we need a big performance. After winning East Java and coming 2nd in Pais Vasco, another podium has to be the goal in a PTHC stage race. We need the points to stay up!!!
The field is stacked, especially T-Mobile look strong as hell. So bring it on!! 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-07-2020 06:33
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World Champion
Posts: 11621
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Skujins, Mohoric, Kump and Kelderman, do your thing! 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
1x  x1
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 04-07-2020 11:31
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Classics Specialist
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This race might become a significant drain on our PPrD. It's unlikely that Ginanni will score much stage points and GC wise he'll probably have to fight to stay in top 20.
Despite decent depth behind him, it's definitely not our best support team of the year either. Potts, Senyenov and Hofland lack the MO necessary to make it to the stage finales and Geoghegan Hart is just a level 3 prospect. So we'll need Tratnik, Furdi and Konrad to do damage control for us by crowding the ok GC spots and maybe force some breakaway success.
TC seems impossible as well. That T-mobile lineup...
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| Bikex |
Posted on 04-07-2020 11:47
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Team Leader
Posts: 7385
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This race will determine the fate of my team. If Lutsenko doesn't deliver we will probably go down. I hope he'll finish in front of Beltran so I don't have to bite myself in the ass that I haven't signed him and spent 3.8m on training. Bouhanni could achieve some results in the sprints hopefully.
T-Mobile's result will also be interesting for us with their strong team here, as that's one team we'll have to keep behind us. |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 04-07-2020 14:29
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Directeur Sportif
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Guess most of the hopes on Kelderman are gone after reading that preview. Not sure we get much from here.
Thanks for the detailed preview Ulrich
Speaking for Kelderman alone, his thing hasn't amounted to much this season!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 04-07-2020 15:55
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9137
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WHAT THE FUCK is our team doing? Why on earth is Kump working for nothing? Why don't we try anything? How dumb can a team work on the ONLY home stage all year (thanks for that MGUCI)? It's really beyond my understanding. Time to say goodbye I guess...
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-07-2020 16:09
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15025
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 11500.00
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Well bugger me with a fish fork..
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-07-2020 16:11
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Team Leader
Posts: 5511
Joined: 18-10-2017
PCM$: 200.00
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Shit, shit, shit!!! 
How are we suppose to do anything, if we can't even catch a breakaway?!
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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