In general i really like your stats. They are well balanced, and the current span of the stat matrix makes it pretty realistic imo. However, the amount of decent riders have been rising heavily in the DB throughout the last couple of years, making it harder for the actual decent riders to stand out.
Riders who perform well are generally more visible and therefore
more likely to have their stats boosted, than those who gradually perform worse are to be downgraded.
Hence, I've gone through the WT-teams and made some suggestions.
I know that the stat-team stats a rider taking the two or three previous years into account, weighing more recent results higher. In these suggestions I'm pointing out some riders whome i believe have performed worse in recent years, having injuries in mind as far as i know (Etc. Hagen, Cavendish). I don't take races raced since the last DB-update into account, as I assume you are Ask me anything if you want.
Just humble suggestions:
Astana:
De Vreese (FL, COB, RES 76->74) - He hasn't been in any cobbled race finals for 2 years, and seems generally weaker now, though still a funny fella
Villella (HI 76->74/75)
Bahrain:
Haussler (RES 75->73, COB, SPR, ACC 75->74)
Sieberg (COB 75->73, RES 76->74)
Ivan Garcia(FTR74->79, COB 71->72/73)
Arashiro - Should be lowered generally
Agnoli (MON 73->71, HI 74->72, FL 70->69)
Bora:
Formolo(SPR 71->67) - I never understood why Formolo's sprint is so high. He's got a nice acceleration on hills, but is not a fast guy in flat terrain at all in my opinion
Bodnar (PRL 79->77, RES 77->75)
Kennaugh - Could be generally lowered a little, except for his sprint, which is decent in my eyes. I suggest SPR 68.
Gatto - Could be generally lowered by 2-3 points in most stats. He's a decent helper, but his current stats should let him win races, which is too much.
Mühlberger (END 69->71) - He has performed well in longer races. Especially Strade Bianche.
CCC:
Van Keirsbulck (FL 77->75, RES 75->73, END 73->72, COB 75->74) He hasn't been as strong as everyone thought he would become, not a help in the finals at all for GVA this year either.
Ventoso - Should be generally lowered
EF:
Modolo (ACC 78->77, RES 76->75)
Phinney (FL 78->76, TT/PRL 77->75, COB 75->72, RES 75->74) This may be too harsh, but I haven't seen much to Phinney for a few years. Even his TT's haven't been convincing.
Van Garderen (MO 77->75, HI 76->74, TT 75->77, PRL 75->76) It seems that VG has been shifting focus to improve his time trial at the expense of his climbing the last 2 years.
Breschel (SPR 74->72, ACC 74->71)
Clarke (END 74->75, RES 73->74) He was super strong in Strade Bianche/Tirreno/MSR
Howes (END 75->72)
FDJ:
Ladagnous (COB 74->71, RES 74-> 72, FL 76->75, HI 72->71)
Morabito (Should be lowered a bit)
Madouas (HI 73->75, ACC 72->73)
Dimension Data:
Renshaw (SPR 76->74, ACC 78->76, FL 76->75)
Slagter (HI 77->76)
Cummings (Should be generally lowered, seems that his age finally caught up)
Eisel (General downgrade)
Bak (FL 76->75, RES 75->73)
LottoNL:
Vinjegaard (MO 67->72, HI 70->69) He's more of a climber, than a puncheur in my opinion
Katusha:
Haas (FL 75->73)
Spilak (MO 77->76, HI 77->75, ITT 74->70, PRL 73->70)
Zabel (RES 74->72)
Sunweb:
Arndt (SPR 76->74, ACC75->73, RES 77->75)
Pedersen (FL 77->76, RES 75->74, END 74->73)
Trek:
Pedersen (HI 74->71) He didn't 2nd Flanders last year because of his punching ability, but due to him anticipating the hills and being able to hold a high pace. He's certainly not shown himself better on the cobbled hills than Stuyven has.
Irizar (ITT 74->72, PRL 74->72)
UAE:
Henao (MO 78->77, HI 79->78)
Costa (MO 77->76, HI 78->77)
Mori(HI 74->72)
purepasd wrote:
In general i really like your stats. They are well balanced, and the current span of the stat matrix makes it pretty realistic imo. However, the amount of decent riders have been rising heavily in the DB throughout the last couple of years, making it harder for the actual decent riders to stand out.
Riders who perform well are generally more visible and therefore
more likely to have their stats boosted, than those who gradually perform worse are to be downgraded.
Hence, I've gone through the WT-teams and made some suggestions.
I know that the stat-team stats a rider taking the two or three previous years into account, weighing more recent results higher. In these suggestions I'm pointing out some riders whome i believe have performed worse in recent years, having injuries in mind as far as i know (Etc. Hagen, Cavendish). I don't take races raced since the last DB-update into account, as I assume you are Ask me anything if you want.
Just humble suggestions:
Astana:
De Vreese (FL, COB, RES 76->74) - He hasn't been in any cobbled race finals for 2 years, and seems generally weaker now, though still a funny fella
Villella (HI 76->74/75)
Bahrain:
Haussler (RES 75->73, COB, SPR, ACC 75->74)
Sieberg (COB 75->73, RES 76->74)
Ivan Garcia(FTR74->79, COB 71->72/73)
Arashiro - Should be lowered generally
Agnoli (MON 73->71, HI 74->72, FL 70->69)
Bora:
Formolo(SPR 71->67) - I never understood why Formolo's sprint is so high. He's got a nice acceleration on hills, but is not a fast guy in flat terrain at all in my opinion
Bodnar (PRL 79->77, RES 77->75)
Kennaugh - Could be generally lowered a little, except for his sprint, which is decent in my eyes. I suggest SPR 68.
Gatto - Could be generally lowered by 2-3 points in most stats. He's a decent helper, but his current stats should let him win races, which is too much.
Mühlberger (END 69->71) - He has performed well in longer races. Especially Strade Bianche.
CCC:
Van Keirsbulck (FL 77->75, RES 75->73, END 73->72, COB 75->74) He hasn't been as strong as everyone thought he would become, not a help in the finals at all for GVA this year either.
Ventoso - Should be generally lowered
EF:
Modolo (ACC 78->77, RES 76->75)
Phinney (FL 78->76, TT/PRL 77->75, COB 75->72, RES 75->74) This may be too harsh, but I haven't seen much to Phinney for a few years. Even his TT's haven't been convincing.
Van Garderen (MO 77->75, HI 76->74, TT 75->77, PRL 75->76) It seems that VG has been shifting focus to improve his time trial at the expense of his climbing the last 2 years.
Breschel (SPR 74->72, ACC 74->71)
Clarke (END 74->75, RES 73->74) He was super strong in Strade Bianche/Tirreno/MSR
Howes (END 75->72)
FDJ:
Ladagnous (COB 74->71, RES 74-> 72, FL 76->75, HI 72->71)
Morabito (Should be lowered a bit)
Madouas (HI 73->75, ACC 72->73)
Dimension Data:
Renshaw (SPR 76->74, ACC 78->76, FL 76->75)
Slagter (HI 77->76)
Cummings (Should be generally lowered, seems that his age finally caught up)
Eisel (General downgrade)
Bak (FL 76->75, RES 75->73)
LottoNL:
Vinjegaard (MO 67->72, HI 70->69) He's more of a climber, than a puncheur in my opinion
Katusha:
Haas (FL 75->73)
Spilak (MO 77->76, HI 77->75, ITT 74->70, PRL 73->70)
Zabel (RES 74->72)
Sunweb:
Arndt (SPR 76->74, ACC75->73, RES 77->75)
Pedersen (FL 77->76, RES 75->74, END 74->73)
Trek:
Pedersen (HI 74->71) He didn't 2nd Flanders last year because of his punching ability, but due to him anticipating the hills and being able to hold a high pace. He's certainly not shown himself better on the cobbled hills than Stuyven has.
Irizar (ITT 74->72, PRL 74->72)
UAE:
Henao (MO 78->77, HI 79->78)
Costa (MO 77->76, HI 78->77)
Mori(HI 74->72)
This is great and just the kind of feedback we like and I will go thru these today and tomorrow and give feedback.
I can tell you though that since the update just out, there have been some more changes to stats such as further downgrades to Cav and Kittel etc and for example Henao I noted hasn't done well at Basque but will leave till Ardennes to decide etc ... stuff like this.
Looking quickly though some of your suggestions look a little drastic but as stated much appreciated.
Also for the next update aimed for after LBL we should have rider "fav races and weather/climate likes and dislikes" back into the DB
Ok have been through these suggestions and here are some comments:
Astana- Agree Bahrain- Garcia has already been upgraded, Haussler even though he is anonymous did well again at GW and normally does well at Roubaix, if he does well tomorrow will keep those stats, if not a poss downgrade in cob Bora- Kennaugh had a good Worlds where he was still strong late on, his problem is inconsistency rather than ability I'd say CCC- Van Keirsbulck yes disappointing so far EF- These were your most interesting suggestions but also the most diverse. Modolo a hard one but agree as his stats were still based on 2017 classics. Phinney yes in TT but was still strong at last years Roubaix will see how he does tomorrow. TVG and Clarke I really liked and have put in as suggested. Dimension Data- Most of those have already been done, only one I don't agree with is Slagter in FW and Santos does still finish with 78 hill riders. Katusha- Spilak agree with hill but still capable of doing it in mtn stat in week long tours like at Suisse last year. LottoNL- Vinjegaard impressive today at Basque and needs a sizeable climbing upgrade Trek- Stuyven is an odd one does hills well but not so much on cobbled hills which is why he does well at Roubaix. Pederson will now be 73 hill as I saw him do reasonably well in another race this season on a hill and was stronger than Langeveld and Van Baarle on last Flanders who have similar hill. UAE- Henao and Costa amazingly have just had those downgrades!
Also further coincidence as just the other day had upgraded both Sutterlin and Madaous to those exact stat changes!!
Also I'd be careful with what I'd call big flat riders like Knees who may not need big res but they are big engines and Knees is still good. I agree others like Ladagnous, De Vreese and Bak are not as good as they were and have lowered their cob and res but mostly kept their flats or near it which is their main stat
Edited by Tafiolmo on 13-04-2019 22:34
Happy to help and to see that you had already incorporated some of my suggestions.
What do you think about my thoughts for Formolo?
About Slagter: Perhaps a HI downgrade isn't appropriate. He seems to be occasionally strong in easy races with a punchy finish. Perhaps a small downgrade to RES or FL instead?
Yes, Vinjegaard rode like a 79 MO rider today, considering his early break. Maybe a 74-75 MO stat would be appropriate.
purepasd wrote:
Happy to help and to see that you had already incorporated some of my suggestions.
What do you think about my thoughts for Formolo?
About Slagter: Perhaps a HI downgrade isn't appropriate. He seems to be occasionally strong in easy races with a punchy finish. Perhaps a small downgrade to RES or FL instead?
Yes, Vinjegaard rode like a 79 MO rider today, considering his early break. Maybe a 74-75 MO stat would be appropriate.
Good job Tafiolmo
To be fair I really don't remember seeing Formolo in a sprint but have dropped him a bit on your suggestion but just the other day upped his flat a little.
Slagter has 77 because of 12th at FW last year probably the purest test for the hill stat but in general is probably nearer a 76 hill best to wait for Ardennes classics I think to give him a final hill stat.
Was thinking about the same for Vinjegaard as well.
Guys i don't get how to see updated stats
In the drive doc "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IerPBTGpU4kE7Qlsj7guRrl7hUG6EDRJgmaE5xZCuJ0/edit#gid=410697736" i go in "Effectifs" but many riders are hidden, i have to show them with new filter view, and they are not even updated, for example Formolo is still 71 in SPR.
marcoplv95 wrote:
Guys i don't get how to see updated stats
In the drive doc "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IerPBTGpU4kE7Qlsj7guRrl7hUG6EDRJgmaE5xZCuJ0/edit#gid=410697736" i go in "Effectifs" but many riders are hidden, i have to show them with new filter view, and they are not even updated, for example Formolo is still 71 in SPR.
That's because there is no option to view anymore and to see the new stats you'll have to wait for each update. The next stat update will be after the LBL
After this year Northern classics, i think we have seen that level is flat, there aren't anymore top riders fighting for wins and some outsiders. But it's needed to decide if top value is going to be 81 or 80, anyways, i'll try to give my balance based on top 80.
Terpstra: COB 81->80, STA 80->79, FLA 80->79 but keep RES 80 Van Avermaet FLA 79->78, STA 80->79, RES 79->78 Sagan STA 79->78 Gilbert FLA 77->79, COB 78->79 Lampaert COB 78->79, STA 76->78 Kristoff COB 77->78, HIL 71->73 Van Aert RES 77->79, FTR 77->78, COB 77->78, STA 76->77 Politt COB 76->78, STA 76->78 and maybe lower his sprint (why he has 73? I'm not sure about that but I never noticed he was that fast Bettiol HIL 74->76, PRL 76->77, FLAT 76->77, COB 75->77, ACC 73->75, DHI 69->70, STA 76->78, RES 76->78
He won Flanders but not like he had they day of his life like Dillier, but was performing since season start. It may looks a lot but just compare these stats with Van Avermaet's and you'll see that he's still lower enough.
Edited by marcoplv95 on 15-04-2019 14:46
marcoplv95 wrote:
After this year Northern classics, i think we have seen that level is flat, there aren't anymore top riders fighting for wins and some outsiders. But it's needed to decide if top value is going to be 81 or 80, anyways, i'll try to give my balance based on top 80.
Terpstra: COB 81->80, STA 80->79, FLA 80->79 but keep RES 80 Van Avermaet FLA 79->78, STA 80->79, RES 79->78 Sagan STA 79->78 Gilbert FLA 77->79, COB 78->79 Lampaert COB 78->79, STA 76->78 Kristoff COB 77->78, HIL 71->73 Van Aert RES 77->79, FTR 77->78, COB 77->78, STA 76->77 Politt COB 76->78, STA 76->78 and maybe lower his sprint (why he has 73? I'm not sure about that but I never noticed he was that fast Bettiol HIL 74->76, PRL 76->77, FLAT 76->77, COB 75->77, ACC 73->75, DHI 69->70, STA 76->78, RES 76->78
He won Flanders but not like he had they day of his life like Dillier, but was performing since season start. It may looks a lot but just compare these stats with Van Avermaet's and you'll see that he's still lower enough.
I completely agree on Terpstra, Lampaert, Bettiol and Sagan. I also believe the max COB stat should be 80.
Van Avermaet seemed like one of the strongest in every race, but needed teammates. Could see his RES go one down though.
I almost agree on your suggestions for Gilbert, but would also like to drop his hill stat. 78 is too much for him now. He does not have the speed on hills that he used to have, and with other very strong backup stats, he should be able to compete in AGR, RVV and so on with 76/77 HI. Also, i believe FL 78 is good for him, as he seems have more strength on the flat now.
Kristoff is a hard one. In my eyes, he's got the best endurance out of anyone. I would put his END at 80. 77 or 78 COB is hard to say, but his hill stat does not deserve 73. I did not see Kristoff pushing on a hill this entire classics campaign. He rode away before some hills and hung on well, but with his other stats, 73 is too much.
Van Aert was absolutely one of the strongest both this year and last year. I'd say COB 79, STA 79, RES 79. He is so consistent and keeps on going like he never stops (well, not in this PR of course, but his performance yesterday was unbelievable). His biggest strengths seem to be his endurance and resistance.
I like your suggestions for Politt, but he has shown multiple times that he is quite fast. So I say keep his SPR at 73.
Edit: Even though Degenkolb won the cobbled Tour stage, he hasn't shown himself worthy of his current stats at all. It's a tough case in lieu of his injuries, but it does not seem like he will recover fully.
I suggest HI 71->70, PRL 77->75, COB 78->76, SP 79->77, ACC 77->76, RES 77->76. It may seem too harsh, but his current stats seem way too high imo. With these stats he is still a big contender for races like GW and DDV.
Edited by purepasd on 15-04-2019 15:29
Some great comments here as always and will put a bit later what the cobbled stats are going to be BUT of course they can always be changed as there are some that even I'm not sure of but before that some comments to riders mentioned above:
Terpstra got a downgrade from his 81's to 80 but is still going to be the best cob rider. He showed he never quite had the form of last season but we'll never know that for certain because of his crash.
GVA will still be one of the very best and he needs top stats because he has such a poor team, hell even Direct Energie are a lot better for support than CCC only his STA went down a bit as part of a levelling process with other big riders
Sagan His problem seems to be STA and marked down there but also in acc.
QS- Stybar, Gilbert, Lampaert, Senechal and Asgreen Easily the strongest team in cob stats and I think it's more interesting to think of the team tactics and it's like anyone of these can win or podium in any race. I think Stybar should still be the leader so just has the highest cob and was probably the leader entering into Ronde but given that Gilbert has some of the highest support stats that may confuse the AI for some races. Gilbert as mentioned is not that hill rider anymore and dropped a bit and his flat raised and Lampaert would be the third strongest rider here.
EF- Vanmarcke, Langeveld and Bettiol The first two much the same as before but Bettiol had high stats from 2 years ago when he made his name as it were as one to watch, disappointing last year but kept his stats he now has had boosts but needs to be remembered he won Ronde because of the favs all cancelling each other out with lame tactics.
Kristoff a hard one I think 71 to 72 hill here with same flat and cob stats because his STA is one of the highest but I'm not sure still on his flat and cob.
Degenkolb Big problem here is his hill and cob which have gone down but his sprint should still be high. He's like Kristoff with big sprint but low acc but not as good as Kristoff
Politt Another 71-72 hill rider but hard as he did well at Ronde but has seen most of his stats go up
Van Aert and Van der Poel as for who should be better something of a headache
@Jeremy Robin since last update Cav has gone further down and both Kittel and Greipel will follow in their sprints and will look at the STA of those riders as I assume you are referring when they have these long stages over 200km at the Giro
Hopefully no typo here and a selection of leading cob stats, also fav races is being incoorporated into the DB again so FE Kristoff will have GW, Bettiol Ronde and Gilbert PR etc in their list
Terpstra Flat 80 Cob 80 STA 80 RES 80 Hill 73 GVA Flat 79 Cob 80 STA 79 RES 79 Hill 76 Vanmarcke Flat 79 Cob 80 STA 79 RES 78 Hill 72 Sagan Flat 80 Cob 79 STA 78 RES 79 Hill 75 Naesen Flat 79 Cob 79 STA 80 RES 79 Hill 73 Stybar Flat 78 Cob 80 STA 78 RES 78 Hill 75 Politt Flat 80 Cob 78 STA 79 RES 79 Hill 71 Gilbert Flat 78 Cob 79 STA 80 RES 79 Hill 77 Benoot Flat 78 Cob 78 STA 77 RES 78 Hill 76 Lampaert Flat 78 Cob 79 STA 78 RES 79 Hill 72 Van Aert Flat 76 Cob 79 STA 77 RES 78 Hill 75 Langeveld Flat 77 Cob 78 STA 77 RES 77 Hill 72 Bettiol Flat 76 Cob 78 STA 78 RES 77 Hill 76 Stuyven Flat 79 Cob 77 STA 77 RES 78 Hill 73 Kristoff Flat 78 Cob 78 STA 80 RES 79 Hill 71 VDP Flat 78 Cob 78 STA 77 RES 78 Hill 74 Senechal Flat 78 Cob 77 STA 76 RES 77 Hill 70 Teunisson Flat 77 Cob 77 STA 78 RES 77 Hill 70 Keukeleire Flat 78 Cob 77 STA 76 RES 76 Hill 72 Van Baarle Flat 77 Cob 77 STA 76 RES 77 Hill 73 Asgreen Flat 76 Cob 77 STA 78 RES 77 Hill 74 Degenkolb Flat 77 Cob 77 STA 78 RES 77 Hill 70 Trentin Flat 79 Cob 76 STA 77 RES 77 Hill 74 Jungels Flat 79 Cob 75 STA 78 RES 79 Hill 77
I'm sure there is room for debate and changes on these riders still
Edited by Tafiolmo on 17-04-2019 14:03
Tafiolmo wrote:
Hopefully no typo here and a selection of leading cob stats, also fav races is being incoorporated into the DB again so FE Kristoff will have GW, Bettiol Ronde and Gilbert PR etc in their list
Terpstra Flat 80 Cob 80 STA 80 RES 80 Hill 73 GVA Flat 79 Cob 80 STA 79 RES 79 Hill 76 Vanmarcke Flat 79 Cob 80 STA 79 RES 78 Hill 72 Sagan Flat 80 Cob 79 STA 78 RES 79 Hill 75 Naesen Flat 79 Cob 79 STA 78 RES 78 Hill 74 Stybar Flat 78 Cob 79 STA 78 RES 78 Hill 75 Politt Flat 79 Cob 78 STA 78 RES 78 Hill 71 Gilbert Flat 78 Cob 78 STA 80 RES 79 Hill 77 Benoot Flat 78 Cob 78 STA 77 RES 78 Hill 76 Lampaert Flat 78 Cob 78 STA 78 RES 78 Hill 73 Van Aert Flat 77 Cob 78 STA 79 RES 78 Hill 75 Langeveld Flat 77 Cob 78 STA 77 RES 77 Hill 73 Bettiol Flat 77 Cob 78 STA 78 RES 77 Hill 75 Stuyven Flat 79 Cob 77 STA 77 RES 78 Hill 73 Kristoff Flat 78 Cob 77 STA 80 RES 78 Hill 71 VDP Flat 78 Cob 77 STA 79 RES 78 Hill 74 Senechal Flat 78 Cob 77 STA 76 RES 77 Hill 69 Teunisson Flat 78 Cob 77 STA 76 RES 77 Hill 71 Keukeleire Flat 78 Cob 77 STA 76 RES 76 Hill 72 Van Baarle Flat 77 Cob 77 STA 76 RES 77 Hill 73 Asgreen Flat 77 Cob 77 STA 78 RES 77 Hill 74 Degenkolb Flat 77 Cob 76 STA 78 RES 77 Hill 70 Trentin Flat 79 Cob 76 STA 77 RES 78 Hill 74 Jungels Flat 79 Cob 75 STA 76 RES 78 Hill 77
I'm sure there is room for debate and changes on these riders still
Sure Terpstra deserves to be still the best cob rider, but he looks too op, considering his 13th,23rd,60th in E3,Gand,Dwaars. That's why i suggested to downgrade him and GVA, not because they deserve a lot of downgrade (not too much) but, like I said, there's not that much difference anymore between top COB riders and outsiders.
Bettiol with 74HIL is a disgrace...he stomped GVA (76) and I disagree that it was lame tactic, just look at Sagan's face at Kwaremont, he was just far stronger, and I don't think he deserves same RES as Langeveld, but 1 point better. When he attacked GVA has been behind him for a while, then he just couldn't keep that pace.
What about his ACC, though?
I suggest Bonifazio 80 DHI, I'm sure he's one of the best in the group. Did you see him at MSR?
Look at this too: https://www.youtu...jY6Z4vPoe8Edited by Tafiolmo on 15-04-2019 18:49
The lame tactic of the leaders after Bettiol went away at Ronde is not a reflection against the ability of Bettiol as he attacked at the right time so agree that 75 and 76 hill would be good as he was probably the strongest to attack there. The lame tactic is their inabilty to organize after he had gone away FE QS with three riders in that chase group and other leaders probably would've pulled him back had they worked properly which also would've made a more exciting race.... but that is something we'll never know.
I agree Bettiol could be higher hill but less certain on other stats.
Looks good!
At first glance I'd lower Lampaert's hill stat by one or two points, and lower Trentins resistance by a single point. Asgreen was incredible in de ronde, but for all we know, it could be a +5 day translated to PCM terminology. So I'd probably lower the backup stats by one point each. He needs to show more, even though he's been pretty strong throughout the classics.
Oh, and I still vote for COB 79 for Van Aert.
That's all, nice work
Ok have made the hill change to Bettiol and those changes to Lampaert and Trentin which I all agree with and also updated these stats on the above list. Also for Asgreen that was probably the most impressive ride of the day at La Ronde and even with +5 might not be enough. He basically took over dom duties when Declercq was finished then went with attacks and then had the strength to attack to finish second.
The riders I want most opinions on:
1. Bettiol hill 75 or 76?
2. Differences between Van Aert and VDP as two riders of similar expectaion and background?
3. Kristoff?
1) Wait for Ardennes for Bettiol, he seemed more like a puncheur two years ago so let's see what he can do here.
2) Van Aert had to confirm this season (which he did), while Mathieu doesn't have a previous season to speak of. I'd rate Van Aert higher on the main classic stats, with Mathieu having the better sprint.
Ask me anything if you want. 
