Hella and welcome to jandal's jandally preview of the CT! This is proven to be 100% inaccurate and nobody will finish where I say they do. Except Swisslion. I'm feeling lucky. but that would make it 95% innacurate... nevermind.
The format is pretty simple but also kinda complicated because I realised I was copying matt halfway through thinking of it last time and made it more complicated. I haven't finalised my top half zones but I have divided teams into coloured zones, where I believe they'll be fighting it out in. The red zone is for our probably bottom feelings. Sorry guys. Teams in the orange have the capability to avoid the wooden spoon, but maybe not to mount a fight for the top half. Yellow teams are generally going to finish in the lower mid-table - but they could come knocking on the bottom 6 or the top 10 if things don't go to plan - or they do! The rest is subject to change so I won't make any false and time-wasting explanations until I finalise them.
The rationale is much more complicated because it's all my thoughts with no stats, no science, nothing that will help me be accurate really. It's where this preview will fall down and so don't worry if you're down low, and do worry if you're happy with your place because I definitely jinxed you. All jokes are jokes, if I seem to be a jealous of a certain team or rider I definitely am. I will make more jokes this year because I have less time, but they'll also be worse because I have less time. Not a nice combo. I try not to take expected manager skills into account or schedule announcements (so stop sending your leaders to fricken TOA or you're moved to 19th ), if I do mention the latter it's probably for a joke because that's how bad mine are. I try not to waffle on but already failed that one so let's just get into it!
Rur-roh, Shaggy! These teams just aren't quite good enough, unfortunately - but I'd like nothing more than to be proved wrong. And all three managers have a right to feel hard done by here - there's at least three other oranges who they could easily overcome. Plus, they'll all get more wins than you will anyway because breakaways. Before I reveal my picks for top dog sniffing the wrong end, I'll quote trekbmc:
"That's the funny part of CT previews, trying to figure out if everything is too mean."
19. Equinor Pro Cycling
Cons:
- Talents are good, but not much point scoring to be done taking away from team total (copy and paste from last season
- Nizzolo aside, the leaders lack the acc or versatility to be, well, good
- Nizzolo may have to go to C1 or risk Andorra-type races to score much
Pros:
- Have some form of leader on almost every terrain
- Habtom is just a phenomenally sexy leadout man
- Flatbeasts!
Top Points Scorer: Giacomo Nizzolo
I already made my major criticism of the Italian fastman above, but I also must tell you of my admiration for his skillset. The new figurehead of the Norwegian outfit is a very fast sprinter who is good over hills and an asset to any CT or PCT team - though I fear he may be more suited to the latter.
Rider to Watch: Romeo Quicibal
A tough one to pick in a squad devoid of punchy riders or proficient baroudeurs, but the Guatemalan is maybe the most powerful of their flatbeasts and could fool the peloton with a late attack, or find himself in the minor places in the windy flat classics. He does lack in punch, though.
Oh Equinor. I was really hoping I wouldn't have to do this. For the second year in a row I have to place them bottom of the division (though I hope much like their debut year, they can prove me wrong). It's not to say they haven't improved. It's just that their top leader may not do much big scoring, and if you take away Teklit and the Italian they then have nobody really capable of notching up more than 50 points, excluding freak results.
So let's look at the leaders. Nizzolo is a top sprinter, but I've just been informed he rides for Telia. So I guess it's his alter ego, Modolo, who rides here! Modolo himself is a cool rider and much more than that, he's a very good one. I do fear that unlike the years of Geschke dominating, the days of the hilly sprinter wreaking havoc on the third division are gone. Sure, there's days (and some in C1, if planning goes right) where he could do well, and it's not to say he couldn't score on the flats. It's just that picking up scraps behind the Guarnieris and Sallehs of this division doesn't bring much goodies. He'll bring in over half the points needed to keep them away from the wooden spoon, but not loads else.
Away from him I can only really spare sympathy for African duo Habtom and Teklit. The former is a very cool leadout with his great backups, whilst the latter is a solid, if unspectacular, 77HI rider who will trudge along collecting top 10s all year, hoping to do a Brataschuk and sneak a big GC result. Bugge isn't a bad option when the roads go up if he gets to have an attack, but isn't going to repeat the heroics of Taborre last season. Hoem is... there. Eventually at least, when he finally catches up after his pitiful acceleration. Other than the top three the nicest things I can say are: Taborre saved their ass last season so whatever, the others are from their country or nice flatbeast leadouts, and I will say in this team's defense it's a long-term plan they have going on.
Really this is just not a great team - I'd be hard pressed to call them a good one. All of their leaders bar two are uninspiring and won't surprise at all, and they have no cool baroudeurs or surprise riders. Bleh!
18. Eddie Stobart
Cons:
- Everyone except Meyer sucks
- They sold breakaway hero Paul van der Ploeg
- Meyer isn't an instant top dog
Pros:
- They get a ridiculous number of break wins each year
- Meyer is really good
- Umm…
Top Points Scorer: Travis Meyer
The easiest pick I've had to make since Valls @ Repsol. The Aussie doesn't have the massive backups you'd like to see to make him a Top 5 rider in the division, but his HIL/ACC combo is fearsome.
Rider to Watch: Salvador Moreno Hernandez
I actually considered him for myself and he could do some nice things for the Brits with his (in my eyes) super sexy MON-RES-ACC combo. Though in the words of probable manager of the year if we actually remembered to hold the awards, Croatia14, "he's trash", so who knows? Maybe I'm right though, I mean which one of us got the most out of Igor Anton, and promoted in our debut year? Oh wait, that was him.
Honestly I only like four riders on this team and the rest make me as depressed as Jaime Suaza in a flat classic (remember when he rode one of those instead of Tachira?). So let's talk about Travis Meyer, Shaun Lewis, Salvador Moreno, and, yes, Daniel Thorsen.
First off are the climbing duo. Shaun Lewis has been a quiet mainstay of the CT mountain breakaway and KoM fight for a while now, whilst Moreno Hernandez has mastered the breakaway in such a way that he is the greatest artist named Salvador in history. Who cares about some watches painted by a guy who can't make circles properly? Both have the MON-RES-ACC-FTR combo that is required for their task of making people believe that a bottom of the table team, sponsored by an infrastructure company, isn't boring.
The next man on the list is their undisputed leader - if only because he's the only competent rider there - Travis Meyer. The Aussie was a contender for every hilly race in the division anyway before he got juiced up over the break and is now a real beast in CT. Unfortunately the division is crawling with hilly beasts and so he'll have to try and use his sprint to overcome the likes of Gautier, Edmondson, Ben Nasser and Siskevicius to name just a few.
The last man I like in this team is the human equivalent of doing all your homework whilst on speed the night before it's due, only to find out you read the question wrong and still failed, Daniel Thorsen. He is simply hilarious to see in action and I really hope he can get some good placings and even a win. Legends never die - but he is about to decline, which is much the same to us consumers in this society where stars only exist for our entertainment, are intruded upon, idolised, abused and tossed by the wayside when they start to get older. Has anybody ever thought about Daniel Thorsen the human being? Panem et circenses indeed.
But other than those four, it's just like the grey skies of this team's home nations - pretty bleak. And yes, they'll find themselves with a plethora of random breakaway results throughout the season. But this is supposedly a prediction, and I'd feel more confident in myself tightroping across the Grand Canyon, populated by Tottenham-supporting Lions who haven't had a good meal since they last won a trophy, than predicting which riders will win the lottery that is Langkawi after the Highlands stages.
17. Oberfranken
Cons:
- All three climbers have under 70ACC
- Sprinters could clash
- No puncheurs
Pros:
- BVP somehow is good
- The climbers will get some points
- One eye on the future
Top Points Scorer: Vadim Ratiy
The Ukrainian is undeniably good at climbing and time trialling and spearheads the team onwards. He's here with the goal of being one of the CT's best stage racers - but will his infamously bad kick see him lose time to the punchier riders?
Rider to Watch: Carlos Quintero
The Colombian is a very nice domestique on every terrain (except cobbles, naturally) and also loves to attack, where his versatility and handy sprint makes him a threat in any kind of stage win fight.
Eh. That's my reaction upon seeing this squad. You've got Boy van Poppel (somehow a top 50 scorer) and Vadim Ratiy (yeah, he's going to score, but...) and not loads else. Diaz severely underperformed as a leader at SanCor last year, netting just three points more than Tom Davison (and not being an awesome domestique for the division's best puncheur) and ten less than Daniel Thorsen. Elissonde netted less than that in the PCT and was outscored by Marc de Maar, who causes a house fire every year with the number of candles on his birthday cake. The little Frenchie is a tough bugger, but has awful stage fright and is mortified by the thought of attacking, or even responding to an attack. Or maybe he's just not very fast. Who knows, I've never actually seen him during a bicycle race.
So, the leaders. Boy van Poppel pulled out all the stops last season and mystified many by slipping into the top 50 after finding his way around supposed leader but clearly worse sprinter Marco Brus at Proximus. Read: He could outdo Keough easily. Him managing to repeat these heroics (a good USAPCC would be hella helpful) could be a key to lifting Oberfranken off the bottom of the barrel - providing Vadim Ratiy can score.
Since I revealed Oberfranken here, some, maybe even most, of you will have been thinking: "jandal, I know you have a massive ACC fetish but Raity has 80 freaking MON!". And to that I say... yeah. But 58 ACC! And he's genuinely worse at going downhill than a one-way space rocket. At least when they do it, it's fast and fiery. He'll pull in some points. But not enough.
So who else is there to squeeze something out of Oberfraken's debut year? The name that sticks out is Geschke. The bearded German is the winningest (can't believe that's a word) rider in the CT, like, ever! But unfortunately a couple of years ago the powers that be realised that maybe having so many races over hills that the fat sprinters wouldn't climb if you put a box of donuts at the top, and the puncheurs wouldn't attack on if you put Borges' secret ACC drugs at the top, was kinda boring and last year he managed a measly 36 points. Better planning will get him to 50, maybe.
They have a couple of cool baroudeurs who may pick up some points because the leaders aren't very impressive, and also yet another rider in cycling called Tesfay. I googled the name to see the significance and... oh my god that's a lot of runners. He's good though, and will certainly be plaguing the dropped favourites in cobbled races by outsprinting them for 12th and a couple more points. Barbari and Keough are fairly boring sprinters who will make a few points but nothing amazing. Mostly they are threats to Boy van Poppel really. All in all there is really just not enough scoring power here, unless Ratiy silences me and diesels his way to a Top 10 standings place, to life them out of the red zone.
An interesting trio of teams are up next. Slightly have an edge over our red trio above, but won't reach the comfort of the mid-table (the latter may do, some variance there - But I don't think so).
16. DK Zalgiris
Cons:
- Only Siskevicius is really a guaranteed even top 70 scorer
- Cobbles and mountains lack a leader
- Lots of riders, only 3 of the "Spare Sixteen" have >70ACC
Pros:
- Siskevicius <3
- Lopez <3
- Building a strong Lithuanian focus with a little international flavour <3
Top Points Scorer: Evaldas Siskevicius
The best Lithuanian rider around was a great pickup for the new Lithuanian team, and is one of a number of Roux wannabes in the division this year. He doesn't have the supreme backups to guarantee a top 10 standings place, but his punch and power on longer hills and flats gives him a great shot at it.
Rider to Watch: Miguel Angel Lopez
Using the third highest OVL rider in the team is an unorthodox pick, but with the lack of exciting baroudeurs in the bottom half (save Blekivicius) and his lovely CT stats I gotta make the call. Be it as a fighting climber or an exciting Siskevicius foil/helper, he's
a very nice loanee to have.
I really really really want to like DK Zalgiris. And I do like them. I just don't... think they're a very good team. Yet. But it looks promising, but this isn't jandal's jandally preview of the CT teams in five years, this is jandal's jandally preview of the CT now. So let's get rolling.
The big (only?) name for the newcomers is Evaldas Siskevicius, and since in some ways you could say he is DK Zalgiris, I may as well start with him. It is, as any ICL manager (or someone who will listen to me talk about ICL) will know, quite impossible for me to be objective about Siskevicius. Luckily this is a subjective preview so screw you. He is quite simply a god in human form, much like when the Greek gods would grace us mere mortals with their presence. And you might say "hey jandal you uncultured swine who knows about Greek mythology primarily through Percy Jackson, the Greek gods were massive dicks." And yes, it seems like that because they did bad things to us, the humans. Just like how Siskevicius is going to spank the whole CT until they call him daddy.
The next best riders are another home leader Kruopis and incoming loanee and future star Lopez. The former isn't the fastest sprinter but is one of the most well-rounded in the division - very good backups and skills in TTs and hills could increase his points total exponentially. But how high is that? And how high is it with just sprinting? Last season had him under 40 points, but he was a leadout man there. So who knows? He's not going to set the world alight either way, but a solid scorer and a nice CT rider.
Speaking of nice CT riders, I am beyond excited for the aforementioned Lopez to get going in the CT. He's already a really nice puncheur for the division with his ACC and decent backups, and will either be an awesome superdomestique or a very nice second rider/foil for Siskevicius. In the mountains, he'll be a very dangerous rider too. But for 200,000 for one season, you do have to question the sanity of the DK manager - and the negotiation techniques of the Evonik one. He will probably outscore 200k worth of other loanees - but come on! 200k for a loan-in is madness. Ah well. Still couldn't have afforded the ridiculous Navardauskas price with that extra money.
What else is there? Time trial leader Roman Kreuziger must be thinking about putting his feet up and finding a Czech cycling commentary gig to part-time and then full-time if he's not super boring on at some point soon. But he's not a bad rider - despite not being the very dangerous man he was last season (even if not utilised so well at In-n-Out). Dzervus is cool but a carbon copy of Kruopis except worse. And cobbled "leader" Kaupas will spend more time helping Kruopis than attempting to scrape a point on the pavé I'd think. Beyond that the other riders aren't anything to write home about. Juodvalkis is cool, Manfred loves to attack but doesn't accelerate fast enough to pass the domestiques at the front of the peloton, and Blekivicius is an actually not bad baroudeur. Yep, there's over ten pretty dull spots on this team. Not great at all.
15. Andorra Project - InGamba
Cons:
- No puncheur or sprinter is a big miss in CT
- No real safe scorers bar Kiserlovski
- ONLY THREE GUYS WITH 70+ACC
Pros:
- Their TT squad will only improve now the division is weaker
- Solid domestiques (if not depth scorers) for Kiserlovski
- Kiserlovski will score, I guess?
Top Points Scorer: Robert Kiserlovski
The Croatian is a pretty obvious pick here, staking his claim by being good and then he goes unchallenged because that's an argument none of his teammates have.
Rider to Watch: Oliver Naesen
I'm pretty sure despite having SP/ACC under 70 he's their lead sprinter, plus he's got a very nice combo of HI/MON skills that make him a cool rider for some depth scoring or breakaways in PCT (such as his De Panne Stage 3 win two years ago) or in races like Benelux.
Not a lot to say on this one, I'll start with a little moan first. Or maybe I should call it a big moan. Because somehow Andorra Project - InGamba have assembled a 19-man squad... where just three of them have over 70ACC! This is mind-blowing to me and surely not what you want as a team who need some surprise help to rise out of the orange... or even as a team that wants to be good at all! It's stunning to me a team focused on mountains and time trials managed to hire three guys with any kick at all - and none of them were the climbers! And don't you other CT managers laugh at that, though, because Kiserlovski doesn't even have a huge advantage because there's so many others who couldn't accelerate away from a Galapagos tortoise! One of them is a first year pro who may well be the only one on the team to make it to the race sign-ons because he is the only one able to accelerate out of the team bus at over 2 km/h!
You want to see the affect ACC has? Look at Marquez, Vichot, look at Borges, Roux, look at Suaza, Valls, Penasa, look at almost anyone who has won a breakaway stage ever! THEY ALL HAVE ABOVE 70ACC. Look at almost any non TT-rider who scored fairly well in the CT last year. They almost all had above 70ACC!
How does Kevin Eeckhout provide any value to the team if he can't respond to cobbled attacks because he has below 60ACC? Kiserlovski better never puncture or have a bad day ever because somehow his pathetic 66ACC is almost the best their climbers have to offer! I don't think I ask for too much - I don't mean to say they need a team of Borges-clones (but that would be so awesome) but surely someone at Andorra HQ could pay attention to the sacred stat?
I've established this team has next to no hope of outperforming, I'm done with that (though still more than a little annoyed with them). So how will they perform? It's hard not to mention their glaring flaw while I do this, but I'll try. The big/only name is Robert Kiserlovski, who arrives looking to be the CT's top dog fresh off a 200-point season in the PCT. Solid, but not amazing. He's probably third of the 80 climbers for me, but in more balanced stage races with tough hilly days he could at least overtake Suaza. More worrying for him will be being caught out by guys with ACC on 77-78MON, but he sould do enough to stay ahead of them. His key lieutenant is a really good stage racer anyway who should garner some points of his own, Larry Warbasse. He's a great helper if need be, and very good in TTs which can help him out on GC. They have a good train of climbers to help them out.
The other side of this team's coin is the TT line-up, which (especially if the stage racers go) makes them a top TTT team here. None of them, bar Kireva, are super well balanced which could drag them down some points but the pure chrono strength of Mottin and Bayern Rundfahrt winner Laizer are evident still. So it's not all bad for Andorra, but the lack of a puncheur, sprinter, or riders who can accelerate hard enough to overtake anyone in the peloton, will certainly hurt them.
14. Banco de Bogota
Cons:
- No top or maybe even top 50 scorers
- Calendar doesn't suit them so much
- Climbers are too one-dimensional
Pros:
- Every rider is useful to an extent
- Surprisingly good at time trialling for a Colombian team
- Sepulveda is very very very very very cool
Top Points Scorer: Vitor Rodrigues
Bikex told me that this dude is basically Jesus, and I can't wait to see him return to the division he conquered in 2014 and rule the roost once more. I wonder if any other nice climbers came in while he was gone?
Rider to Watch: Julian Arredondo
The diminutive Colombian has a few personal interests:
- Romantic candelit dinners (with a high chair so he can reach his food)
- Long walks on the beach
- Attacking on mountains
I hope they serve him well, as if he puts them to good use, he could be a great KoM chaser. Well, I'm not sure how the first two will help him.
Here's the story of a team who somehow managed to be Colombian and have TT and sprint squads that aren't just blank pages in their HQ. Unfortunately this meant that they couldn't be like most Colombian squads and have a top climber to win stuff. Their best bet (though they counterproductively hedged them and bought three leaders instead of one) is MG legend (well, SPAR legend) Vitor Rodrigues. The best thing I can say about him is he's passable... and did you hear he won the CT one year? Okay, that joke is dead now.
The super duper awesome rider here is obviously Sepulveda. Him going to C1 and not could be key as outside of maybe Hong Kong and definitely Slovenie, I don't see him doing a hell of a lot at CT level. And for me, getting walloped into the lower top 10 by Costa, Izagirre and Coppel is better than whatever else Banco were going to do in C1. Maybe cry and wet themselves.
The rest of the team are... nice. Craddock and Abreu are Sepulveda wannabes. Not a criticism, but maybe not the best riders to have in CT. Heina Rodriga Parra Bustamenta and Winna Anacona are good climbers who will mop up enough points to keep them off the bottom... ably backed by about fourteen other climbers. They also have some sprinters, best of them being Angarita, who might pick up a few points. Losch is (let's hope) a year late for the bad AI fest on the cobbles, but I concede he will be a very nice rider when fully developed. Not next year though, because they haven't loaned him out. Meanwhile I'll offer a quick shoutout to very cool domestiques Plucisnki and Palyi, who can offer help on many terrains.
All in all this is just... not a team with loads of big scorers. It is one of the few where I could see every rider netting a point, but none of them consistently enough or on a high enough level to move them out of the orange.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
jandal7 wrote:
Hella and welcome to jandal's jandally preview of the CT! This is proven to be 100% inaccurate and nobody will finish where I say they do. Except Swisslion.
Now I'm really curious for this jandally prediction
jandal7 wrote:
and also yet another rider in cycling called Tesfay. I googled the name to see the significance and... oh my god that's a lot of runners.
jandal7 wrote:
Hella and welcome to jandal's jandally preview of the CT! This is proven to be 100% inaccurate and nobody will finish where I say they do. Except Swisslion.
Now I'm really curious for this jandally prediction
Haha, just a joke I stole from myself last year. But who knows?
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
jandal7 wrote:
Hella and welcome to jandal's jandally preview of the CT! This is proven to be 100% inaccurate and nobody will finish where I say they do. Except Swisslion.
Now I'm really curious for this jandally prediction
Haha, just a joke I stole from myself last year. But who knows?
jandal7 wrote:
Hella and welcome to jandal's jandally preview of the CT! This is proven to be 100% inaccurate and nobody will finish where I say they do. Except Swisslion.
Now I'm really curious for this jandally prediction
Haha, just a joke I stole from myself last year. But who knows?
You got one correct last year?
Yes (In-n-Out in 2nd), but not the one I said I would
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
jandal7 wrote:
Hella and welcome to jandal's jandally preview of the CT! This is proven to be 100% inaccurate and nobody will finish where I say they do. Except Swisslion.
Now I'm really curious for this jandally prediction
Haha, just a joke I stole from myself last year. But who knows?
You got one correct last year?
Yes (In-n-Out in 2nd), but not the one I said I would
I guess I have the honour of getting jinxed this time
A nice pair of oranges have been added to the reserved posts
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
But for 200,000 for one season, you do have to question the sanity of the DK manager - and the negotiation techniques of the Evonik one. He will probably outscore 200k worth of other loanees - but come on! 200k for a loan-in is madness. Ah well. Still couldn't have afforded the ridiculous Navardauskas price with that extra money.
Had to take in him to make Siskevicius cheaper for ya boi
), if I do mention the latter it's probably for a joke because that's how bad mine are. I try not to waffle on but already failed that one so let's just get into it!
