The last division, and the last to post. As with PT and PCT I have given each rider a point score based on how well I think they will score this season, and then summed it up for the teams. A big disclaimer here that I am not really good at CT, just been trying to do my best.
Apart from the top 2 that I have ranked much higher than everyone else it is really tight here for me. Very few points between 3rd and 14th, so a lot can happen and a few lucky results could be enough to turn it upside down.
Adastra got a deep climbing squad, a few time trialists, Vanderaerden and not much else. I also feel that the climbers are not among the very best and that hurts the team. I expect Panyotov, Bardet, Degang and Grabovski to scorean ok amount of points, and then Hristov, Belkov and Marchewka to chip in some more points, but all in all not enough. Vanderaerden is not good enough compared to many other sprinters in the division.
Kiserlovski is one of the best stage racers in the division, even though he lack acc. Warbasse has the same problem, but together they are a very good pair, and the support riders look good as well. Mottin is among the best time trialists in the division, however he lacks everything else, I see Kireva as having the same scoring potential. Eeckhout is a good cobbler, but as with the rest of the squad he lacks acc. Looking at it again the lack of acc all over the team might send Andorra lower than I rank them here…
Banco de Bogota
Best scorer: Sepulveda
Surprise scorer: Wallays
Expected postion: 12
I like the look of the team, just missing the big scorers. On the other hand Sepulveda looks like a really nice rider, would be a dream domestique in PT and should be a good scorer this year. Rest of the climbing squad and time trial squad should also be able to score good points. Wallays and Godoy is a nice hilly suplement to Sepulveda, and with 82 in fighting we should see Wallays attack and score some bonus points. In my opinion a solid mid-table squad
BNZ Cycling Team
Best scorer: Edmondson
Surprise scorer: Roe
Expected position: 13
Edmondson is a good rider with a nice stat combo that will score a good amount of points. Also riders like Roe, Aasvold and Campero will chip in with points. I don't really believe in the sprinters, though Von Hoff could score more than I believe, I just think his acc is to low to be a real threat, while Carsi's fear of speed bumps will get to him. Haas and Gunman are good support riders for Edmondson, but after that there is a real lack of scoring support down the ranks, mainly because the team has focused on talents here. Another mid-table squad
Campari - Super Dry
Best scorer: Ben Nasser
Surprise scorer: Christian
Expected position: 7
I really like Ben Nasser and that helps Campari here, his strong hill and acc will make him one of the better puncheurs in the division. Following up with riders like Cataldo, Drucker and Kebede makes this a strong squad. The two time trialists should also be able to score some points. Drucker as the main cobble leader got a nice sprint that is the real wildcard for Campari. If he manages to follow the best cobblers he can score some really good results.
Compals strenght is that there are many riders that can score points, the weakness however is that the top riders will suffer. Suaza is a very good climber, but a total lack of hill, downhill and resistance will give him trouble. The same can be said about the one-dimensional puncheur Zaini who lacks pretty much everything except hill and downhill. Compal going for the one stat wonders here. Matthews is not a bad sprinter with 75 Flat and will score some points, same with Henao, Atapuma, Haavardsholm, Schurter, Sterebo, Domagalski and Breschel. The problem is however not the depth scoring, just that I believe Zaini and Suaza will provide the top scoring. A nice squad and should finish upper half
Delvaux
Best scorer: Guarnieri
Surprise scorer: Ven der Haar
Expected position: 1
Delvaux got the rider I believe will be at least top 3 in individual score (if not winning) in Guarnieri. In addition to that they got several riders I believe will score quite a lot of points in Kreder, Kadri, Breen, Vichot and Favilli. They all got backup stats that really fits the game and they will score better than their main stat tells you. Backup riders like Van der Haar and Verbist shuold also score a bit extra. In my opinion, together with Valio clear favorites for division champion, and it should be a tight battle between them
One of the new squads, and some really nice riders. Siskevicius should be a really good CT puncheur with support from Lopez, while Kreuziger got a good TT/hill combo. Also Kruopis shuold be a nice rider for the squad. Apart from that however there are not a lot of scoring. Riders like Izagirre and Juodvalkis are not bad, but they lack that little extra and the many level 1 talents wont score a lot. Still there is a lot to continue building on here
Eddie Stobart
Best scorer: Meyer
Surprise scorer: Goeaar
Expected position: 14
Meyer is an awesome rider for CT. Great Hill/Acc and support stats that fit CT well, he will be a really good scorer for the squad and with Umerbekov and Cherel supporting they should get a good amount of points in hilly classics. Thorsen leading the sprinting squad is something I don't really believe in, and I hope Cimolai gets some chanses for himself rather than hoping that Thorsen aint out of gas when the sprint comes around. The climbing part of the squad aint really bad, it just aint good either, with a rider like Medvedev lacking a lot to be desired in the hills etc. A lower half finish in my opinion.
ENI - MOL
Best scorer: Di Maggio / Serry
Surprise scorer: Machado
Expected position: 4
Di Maggio got the best hilly stat in the division, too bad he lack other stats… I believe a rider like Serry will score just as much as him. On the other hand, there are many riders who can score points here. Pomoshnikov, Vanoverschelde, Stancu, Michely, Machado etc will be able to score, and topped with a few good performances from Di Maggio this could secure the promotion for ENI - MOL. There is important to not here that in my scoring 3rd to 13th is really, and ENI - MOL could quickly see themself much farther down the standings
Equinor Pro Cycling
Best scorer: Modolo
Surprise scorer: Ratto
Expected position: 18
Modolo is a nice rider, however there are several riders better than him. I do think he will get som good results, just not good enough to give Equinor a top season. Teklit is also a nice rider, but the puncheur field is really strong this season. Apart from those riders I don't see riders scoring a lot for Equinor, and they have to hope for riders like Bookwalter, Ratto, Taborre, Bugge and Hoem to rider better than I expect to be able to climb in the standings
Pinot is a nice climber, just lacking acc (who could make him do worse than I believe) and Keukleire is a nice sprinter. Both riders got some nice support as well with riders like mcLay, Haddi, Potocki and Anguilet. I expect Hategeka to dissapoint a bit, while I expect Jacobs to score some good points for the team. Interesting to see what allround (except cobbles) riders like Cuming and Belgasem will do for the team. There are also some nice time trialists here in Hussein and Bruke that should score some extra points. In my opinion a team that will fight for promotion, but as I said earlier it is really tight in the area.
Oberfranken
Best scorer: Ratiy
Surprise scorer: Abraha
Expected position: 19
Sorry, but I believe this is the last placed team this season. Ratiy's lack of acc will hurt a lot and make him dissapoint time and time again, Van Poppel is not among the best sprinters. The hope for the team could be another great CT season from Geschke, but he is not the same type of uniqe rider he used to be. Abraha could score some cobble points from his sprint capabilities, but don't hold your breath for a lot of them. I like the dedication to develop some German talents!
Roturn saving the team in the last second, and it is a strange team. Van Heerden a strong sprinter, but the lack of acc (could be a cheer) will hurt. There are also a lot of secondary sprinters that could make the team score ok points on the flats in total. Ferreira is not a bad cobble rider and I believe he will be the teams top scorer with support from Vandenbergh. There are also some nice time trialists and it will be interesting to see if mendes comes with a last hurrah.
Sauber Petronas Racing
Best scorer: Aregger
Surprise scorer: Taubel<3
Expected position: 9
Sauber is a pretty nice team, that for me just lack the little extra. I am a big fan of the stage racing duo Zoidl and Ahmad Zamri who should score some good points, also the sprinters Aregger and Salleh could do well for the team (Aregger top scorer because of that nice prl, even though I have no idea how many prls there are in CT… Thats my fault). Weiss and Hugentobler a nice hilly duo and Olman can score some points. I also really hope for a good season from Taubel, even though he will not be a top scorer on cobbles. One of the team in the tight group that quickly could end up higher than this
Swisslion Cycling Team
Best scorer: Reus
Surprise scorer: Seibeb
Expected position: 6
I really like this Swisslion team, Reus is the "Coppel" of CT, great stat combo that should score a lot of points, then there is also Martin and Kovalev behind him. Pixking up Brajkovic could also prove to be a smart move, specially combined with Seibeb who I believe in with climbing, punching, acceleration and willingness to fight. Guillen on a free can only be positive, and while Mezgec is no top sprinter he could get some results. Zhupa also a intruging cobble-leader. All in all I am really impressed with this new squad and expect them to fight in the top of the division
A team I feel has the backups, but not the leaders, one of the few teams where I expect all riders to score, just that most of the riders will only score minor points… Nizzolo is supposed to be the big boss, and should score some points, but he is just not good enough to really lead a team. Hacecky, De Marchi, Boev, Khripta and Zeizler are nice riders, just that there are many better riders out there… A hard season for Telia, but I feel they have the potential to become better with just a few moves
I have them right behind Delvaux, and those teams much higher than anyone else, and it wont surprise me if they beat them. My points has them less than 100 points apart. Gautier will fight for the individual title, amazing rider for CT. Manninen is a sprinter without any big weaknesses and a great prl stat to help if there are prologues. Lönig might be the best stage racer in CT, but lacks a bit of acc (like many other CT stage racers). Kulppi is a good cobbler, though nothing special. I would also like to mention Pökälä as a good scorer for Valio. After these riders there are only minor points to score, but the mentioned riders will secure promotion, podium and maybe victory.
Thanks for doing this even for CT and sorry for the late reply.
After these riders there are only minor points to score, but the mentioned riders will secure promotion, podium and maybe victory.
Liepins could do well also if his two Vuelta podiums last season (while unmaxed) is anything to go by. Anyway once those five have picked up "their" races there's not really a lot of race days left so more leaders would be a bit overkill IMO
Atlantius wrote:
Thanks for doing this even for CT and sorry for the late reply.
After these riders there are only minor points to score, but the mentioned riders will secure promotion, podium and maybe victory.
Liepins could do well also if his two Vuelta podiums last season (while unmaxed) is anything to go by. Anyway once those five have picked up "their" races there's not really a lot of race days left so more leaders would be a bit overkill IMO
When extra points scorers it is riders picking up top 10s etc behind their leaders I am thinking about ;-)
As mentioned a couple of times in other threads, I think 1st might be too optimistic for us with several C2HC races we won't score points in, as well as having to do quite a few C1 and HC races. But I do agree we have several riders who are capable of steadily picking up points behind the obvious duo Guarnieri and Breen.
Otherwise I very much agree with your top 5 picks. Think Valio is the obvious favorite, and then I expect a very close battle between ENI, GCN, Cerveceria and hopefully my own team for the positions behind.
Edited by Sykkel_Freak on 16-08-2018 16:59
Another great preview! Thanks for that! I usually don't have more to add so I'm saying I appreciate all the job you did! 12th place is yet another one saying "you have a decent team with great depth, but no real leaders"
