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PT Team Rankings Prediction
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 12-10-2017 07:47
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Directeur Sportif

Posts: 12681
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1961.50
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PT Preview - We Love 'Support' Stats
- by AbhishekLFC Welcome to my preview of the 2017 ManGame Pro Tour. Before starting off with the previews, I would like to explain how I’ll be presenting it and the methodology for arriving at the predictions.
I have come up with something called the ‘Coefficient Rankings’ which is the basis for all the rankings. These rankings have been made on six attributes for the riders – Stage Races, Climbing, Punchers, Sprinting, Cobbles and Time Trialing – using certain formulae for calculation.
They are explained below…
Stage Races – Using MO, HIL, TT and a certain combination of other stats
Climbing – Using MO, HIL and a certain combination of other stats
Punchers – Using HIL, ACC and a certain combination of other stats
Sprinting – Using SP, ACC and a certain combination of other stats
Cobbles – Using COB, SP and a certain combination of other stats
Time Trial – Using TT, PRL and a certain combination of other stats
This was used to come up with individual ratings for all riders. These ratings were then used in two ways to come up with the team rankings.
This is explained as follows…
Coefficient Leader Rating – Indicative of strength of leading riders in each team
Coefficient Average Rating – Indicative of squad depth in each discipline
Finally, Racedays for different types of terrains were incorporated to come up with the final Team Standings. Note:
2 riders have been taken as leaders for Stage Races and Cobbles. For other disciplines, 3 best riders have been taken as leaders.
4 riders have been taken as team depth for Stage Races. 5 riders have been taken as team depth for Cobbles. 8 riders have been taken as depth for other disciplines.
I have taken the stats at face value and have not considered possible permutations to race planning. Feel free to ask for any queries in the thread. After the co-efficient rankings are unveiled, I will also post a history based prediction using the rider rankings I posted earlier, and using the points gathered by riders finishing in respective positions last season. Let's see how close the two predictions are.
You can find the PT Rider Rankings here.
**Please refrain from commenting till I post everything.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 12-10-2017 07:47
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Directeur Sportif

Posts: 12681
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1961.50
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| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Festina – Dexia | 80.47 | 1 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 80.13 | 2 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 78.79 | 3 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 78.75 | 4 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 78.66 | 5 |  | Gazelle | 78.61 | 6 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 78.45 | 7 |  | Pendleton's | 78.23 | 8 |  | eBuddy | 78.15 | 9 | | Porto – Prio | 78.01 | 10 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 77.94 | 11 | | Project: Africa | 77.83 | 12 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 77.67 | 13 |  | Ayubowan! | 77.55 | 14 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 77.43 | 15 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 77.24 | 16 |  | Moser - Sygic | 77.21 | 17 |  | Aker – MOT | 77.18 | 18 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 76.77 | 19 |  | Hugo Boss | 76.33 | 20 |  | Strava | 74.63 | 21 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 73.77 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Festina – Dexia | 78.11 | 1 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 77.84 | 2 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 77.73 | 3 | | Project: Africa | 77.46 | 4 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 77.25 | 5 |  | Gazelle | 77.11 | 6 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 77.02 | 7 |  | Hugo Boss | 76.91 | 8 |  | Aker – MOT | 76.84 | 9 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 76.76 | 10 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 76.76 | 11 |  | Pendleton's | 76.72 | 12 |  | Moser - Sygic | 76.52 | 13 |  | Ayubowan! | 76.35 | 14 |  | eBuddy | 76.22 | 15 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 76.20 | 16 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 75.92 | 17 | | Porto – Prio | 75.90 | 18 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 75.48 | 19 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 75.17 | 20 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 74.86 | 21 |  | Strava | 74.80 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Evonik – ELKO | 78.32 | 1 |  | Strava | 77.88 | 2 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 77.85 | 3 |  | Festina – Dexia | 77.60 | 4 |  | Hugo Boss | 77.55 | 5 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 77.28 | 6 |  | Moser - Sygic | 77.25 | 7 |  | Pendleton's | 77.22 | 8 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 76.85 | 9 |  | Ayubowan! | 76.75 | 10 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 76.72 | 11 |  | Aker – MOT | 76.65 | 12 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 76.57 | 13 |  | eBuddy | 76.50 | 14 |  | Gazelle | 76.43 | 15 | | Project: Africa | 76.40 | 16 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 76.32 | 17 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 76.17 | 18 | | Porto – Prio | 75.70 | 19 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 75.60 | 20 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 75.10 | 21 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 73.52 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 78.83 | 1 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 78.65 | 2 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 78.58 | 3 |  | Moser - Sygic | 78.47 | 4 |  | Strava | 78.22 | 5 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 78.20 | 6 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 78.18 | 7 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 78.08 | 8 |  | Aker – MOT | 77.73 | 9 | | Project: Africa | 77.55 | 10 |  | eBuddy | 77.53 | 11 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 77.27 | 12 | | Porto – Prio | 76.67 | 13 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 76.60 | 14 |  | Hugo Boss | 76.42 | 15 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 76.32 | 16 |  | Festina – Dexia | 76.28 | 17 |  | Pendleton's | 76.13 | 18 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 75.98 | 19 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 75.25 | 20 |  | Ayubowan! | 75.07 | 21 |  | Gazelle | 72.33 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Moser - Sygic | 78.00 | 1 |  | Aker – MOT | 77.80 | 2 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 76.73 | 3 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 76.70 | 4 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 76.60 | 5 |  | Pendleton's | 76.33 | 6 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 76.23 | 7 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 75.40 | 8 |  | Ayubowan! | 75.15 | 9 |  | Festina – Dexia | 74.80 | 10 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 74.70 | 11 |  | Strava | 74.65 | 12 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 74.60 | 13 |  | eBuddy | 74.48 | 14 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 74.45 | 15 |  | Gazelle | 73.88 | 16 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 73.68 | 17 | | Project: Africa | 73.35 | 18 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 73.08 | 19 | | Porto – Prio | 72.80 | 20 |  | Hugo Boss | 70.75 | 21 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 70.70 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank | | Porto – Prio | 80.85 | 1 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 79.70 | 2 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 79.67 | 3 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 79.52 | 4 |  | Festina – Dexia | 79.50 | 5 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 78.75 | 6 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 78.73 | 7 |  | eBuddy | 78.52 | 8 |  | Hugo Boss | 78.33 | 9 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 78.33 | 9 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 78.00 | 11 |  | Gazelle | 77.97 | 12 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 77.67 | 13 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 77.52 | 14 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 77.07 | 15 |  | Pendleton's | 76.85 | 16 | | Project: Africa | 75.97 | 17 |  | Moser - Sygic | 75.85 | 18 |  | Aker – MOT | 75.67 | 19 |  | Ayubowan! | 75.48 | 20 |  | Strava | 72.90 | 21 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 70.47 | 22 |
Edited by AbhishekLFC on 12-10-2017 08:13
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 12-10-2017 07:48
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Directeur Sportif

Posts: 12681
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1961.50
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| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Festina – Dexia | 77.74 | 1 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 77.44 | 2 |  | Gazelle | 77.05 | 3 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 76.85 | 4 | | Project: Africa | 76.75 | 5 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 76.75 | 5 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 76.58 | 7 |  | Aker – MOT | 76.23 | 8 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 76.22 | 9 |  | Pendleton's | 76.10 | 10 |  | eBuddy | 76.08 | 11 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 76.01 | 12 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 75.87 | 13 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 75.85 | 14 | | Porto – Prio | 75.85 | 14 |  | Moser - Sygic | 75.66 | 16 |  | Hugo Boss | 75.49 | 17 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 75.29 | 18 |  | Ayubowan! | 75.26 | 19 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 75.20 | 20 |  | Strava | 73.36 | 21 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 72.93 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Gazelle | 75.48 | 1 |  | Aker – MOT | 75.11 | 2 | | Project: Africa | 75.04 | 3 |  | Moser - Sygic | 74.96 | 4 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 74.95 | 5 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 74.86 | 6 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 74.83 | 7 |  | Festina – Dexia | 74.69 | 8 |  | eBuddy | 74.59 | 9 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 74.52 | 10 |  | Hugo Boss | 74.44 | 11 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 74.41 | 12 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 74.08 | 13 |  | Pendleton's | 73.99 | 14 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 73.80 | 15 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 73.75 | 16 | | Porto – Prio | 73.61 | 17 |  | Ayubowan! | 73.33 | 18 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 73.32 | 19 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 73.21 | 20 |  | Strava | 72.75 | 21 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 71.83 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Evonik – ELKO | 76.23 | 1 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 75.53 | 2 |  | Strava | 75.24 | 3 |  | Festina – Dexia | 75.19 | 4 |  | Aker – MOT | 75.11 | 5 |  | Gazelle | 75.10 | 6 | | Project: Africa | 75.01 | 7 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 74.99 | 8 |  | Hugo Boss | 74.93 | 9 |  | Moser - Sygic | 74.71 | 10 |  | eBuddy | 74.64 | 11 |  | Ayubowan! | 74.59 | 12 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 74.58 | 13 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 74.46 | 14 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 74.34 | 15 |  | Pendleton's | 74.30 | 16 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 74.27 | 17 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 74.12 | 18 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 73.79 | 19 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 73.44 | 20 | | Porto – Prio | 72.86 | 21 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 72.81 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Strava | 75.82 | 1 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 75.78 | 2 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 75.56 | 3 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 75.56 | 4 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 75.53 | 5 |  | Aker – MOT | 75.09 | 6 |  | Moser - Sygic | 74.87 | 7 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 74.79 | 8 | | Project: Africa | 74.52 | 9 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 74.26 | 10 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 74.01 | 11 |  | Festina – Dexia | 73.76 | 12 |  | Hugo Boss | 73.46 | 13 |  | Ayubowan! | 73.39 | 14 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 73.35 | 15 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 73.34 | 16 |  | eBuddy | 73.29 | 17 |  | Pendleton's | 73.08 | 18 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 72.70 | 19 | | Porto – Prio | 72.64 | 20 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 71.98 | 21 |  | Gazelle | 71.26 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Aker – MOT | 75.88 | 1 |  | Moser - Sygic | 75.10 | 2 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 74.40 | 3 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 74.17 | 4 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 73.80 | 5 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 73.49 | 6 |  | Ayubowan! | 73.30 | 7 |  | Strava | 73.27 | 8 |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 73.10 | 9 |  | Pendleton's | 73.10 | 9 |  | eBuddy | 73.02 | 11 |  | Festina – Dexia | 72.71 | 12 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 72.62 | 13 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 72.44 | 14 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 72.24 | 15 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 72.04 | 16 | | Project: Africa | 71.95 | 17 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 71.34 | 18 |  | Gazelle | 71.13 | 19 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 68.69 | 20 |  | Hugo Boss | 67.86 | 21 | | Porto – Prio | 67.14 | 22 |
| Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Jayco – Cobra9 | 77.94 | 1 | | Porto – Prio | 77.39 | 2 |  | Aegon – Lavazza | 76.82 | 3 |  | Gazelle | 76.75 | 4 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 76.27 | 5 |  | Festina – Dexia | 76.11 | 6 |  | Nemiroff – ABBYY | 75.39 | 7 |  | Vesuvio – Accumalux | 75.19 | 8 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 75.11 | 9 |  | Hugo Boss | 74.89 | 10 |  | Spotify – Haglöfs | 74.70 | 11 |  | Pendleton's | 74.51 | 12 |  | Iberia – Team Degenkolb | 74.28 | 13 |  | eBuddy | 73.23 | 14 | | Project: Africa | 73.19 | 15 |  | Wiesenhof – Andritz | 73.04 | 16 |  | Team Puma – SAP | 72.59 | 17 |  | Aker – MOT | 72.45 | 18 |  | Moser - Sygic | 72.32 | 19 |  | Ayubowan! | 72.22 | 20 |  | Strava | 70.21 | 21 |  | Evonik – ELKO | 68.51 | 22 |
Edited by AbhishekLFC on 12-10-2017 08:15
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 12-10-2017 07:48
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Directeur Sportif

Posts: 12681
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1961.50
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PT 2017 Rankings – Co-efficient Based | Team | Coefficient | Rank |  | Festina - Dexia | 77.86 | 1 |  | Vesuvio - Accumalux | 77.37 | 2 |  | Aegon - Lavazza | 77.35 | 3 |  | Wiesenhof - Andritz | 77.32 | 4 |  | Team Puma - SAP | 76.94 | 5 |  | Moser - Sygic | 76.87 | 6 |  | Pendleton's | 76.80 | 7 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 76.80 | 8 |  | eBuddy | 76.78 | 9 |  | Aker - MOT | 76.76 | 10 | | Project: Africa | 76.70 | 11 |  | Spotify - Haglöfs | 76.68 | 12 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 76.61 | 13 |  | Jayco - Cobra9 | 76.55 | 14 | | Porto - Prio | 76.41 | 15 |  | Gazelle | 76.34 | 16 |  | Nemiroff - ABBYY | 76.26 | 17 |  | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | 76.12 | 18 |  | Ayubowan! | 76.10 | 19 |  | Hugo Boss | 76.01 | 20 |  | Strava | 75.38 | 21 |  | Evonik - ELKO | 75.18 | 22 |
Edited by AbhishekLFC on 12-10-2017 08:17
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 12-10-2017 07:48
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Directeur Sportif

Posts: 12681
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1961.50
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CT 2017 Rankings – History Based | Team | Potential Points | Rank |  | Festina - Dexia | 7806 | 1 |  | Aegon - Lavazza | 7107 | 2 |  | Aker - MOT | 6894 | 3 |  | Gazelle | 6740 | 4 |  | Moser - Sygic | 6703 | 5 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 6426 | 6 |  | Vesuvio - Accumalux | 6311 | 7 |  | Wiesenhof - Andritz | 6274 | 8 | | Project: Africa | 5878 | 9 |  | Team Puma - SAP | 5872 | 10 |  | Jayco - Cobra9 | 5514 | 11 |  | eBuddy | 5506 | 12 |  | Spotify - Haglöfs | 5457 | 13 |  | Nemiroff - ABBYY | 5448 | 14 |  | Evonik - ELKO | 5407 | 15 |  | Pendleton's | 5333 | 16 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 5173 | 17 |  | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | 4970 | 18 |  | Hugo Boss | 4892 | 19 |  | Strava | 4617 | 20 | | Porto - Prio | 4359 | 21 |  | Ayubowan! | 4340 | 22 |
Comparing the two rankings, Vesuvio, Weisenhof and Puma go down while Aker MOT and RBC are the gainers. Gazelle rockets upwards while Porto-Prio is a big loser. This is perhaps the only instance where I think the points based rankings might end up being more accurate than the co-efficient based one.
Coming to my thoughts on the co-efficient rankings, the only difference at the top from last season is likely to be a lower points difference in Festina-Dexia's win. Aegon, Vesuvio, Moser and maybe Puma to battle for 2nd. I don't think Weisenhof will be so high up. Evonik is a team hated by most formulae and that is evident here. They should comfortably finish around ten positions higher up. The other four teams in the relegation places and also Nemiroff really do look likely to be the ones battling the drop. Project:Africa is predicted for mid-table, which is quite a surprise and looks very unlikely. They too will be looking over their shoulders all season.
I leave the rest to debate. Signing off with my predictions for this season
Edited by AbhishekLFC on 12-10-2017 08:25
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-12-2025 21:15
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 12-10-2017 08:43
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Grand Tour Specialist

Posts: 4368
Joined: 25-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Take these predictions, don't race any races, and start te off season Just in time for the 2018 season please.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 12-10-2017 09:05
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Team Leader

Posts: 7422
Joined: 14-07-2015
PCM$: 599.00
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Havent finished mine yet, but we are clearly way of on this one.
Just cant see Evonik - ELKO last ! or even lower half.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 12-10-2017 09:08
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Directeur Sportif

Posts: 12681
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1961.50
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Tamijo wrote:
Havent finished mine yet, but we are clearly way of on this one.
Just cant see Evonik - ELKO last ! or even lower half.
I don't think so either
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 12-10-2017 12:49
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Classics Specialist

Posts: 2797
Joined: 20-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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The depth rankings are a nice touch. And also cool to see the rankings based on points scored last year.
Your methodology probably needs some refinement to become an accurate prediction. But it's already a very interesting source of statistical analysis. So thanks!
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| knockout |
Posted on 12-10-2017 15:56
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Grand Tour Champion

Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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AbhishekLFC wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
Havent finished mine yet, but we are clearly way of on this one.
Just cant see Evonik - ELKO last ! or even lower half.
I don't think so either 
I think last is what should be expected, everything higher is just a sign of brilliant race planning
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters!
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 12-10-2017 16:10
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Directeur Sportif

Posts: 12681
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1961.50
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@fjhoekie: You might survive anyway. Fingers crossed!
@DubbelDekker: Yes for sure it is far from perfect. I'll get there I hope!
@knockout: Yes mate, absolutely
Edited by AbhishekLFC on 13-10-2017 10:15
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