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Vuelta á Espana 2016
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 23-08-2016 09:21
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ringo182 wrote:
Well Froome won't be 2 mins down anyway so it's a mute point 
I agree, he will be further behind, not just 2mins. 
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| Shonak |
Posted on 23-08-2016 09:30
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What, that's simply not true at all 
Edited by Shonak on 23-08-2016 09:35
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| ringo182 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 09:33
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Possibly, he did look very tired at the Olympics.
But I think he will ride a different race. As he isn't the favourite everyone won't sit on his wheel like they do at the Tour. It's his turn to suck wheels and for the likes of Contador, Quintana and Chaves to drop him. It will be an interesting race, unlike the Tour which he won in 2nd or 3rd gear. |
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| ringo182 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 09:34
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What I mean is he hasn't got close to Froome in a long tt for years. |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 09:34
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ringo182 wrote:
Riis123 wrote:
ringo182 wrote:
I think Froome is not in top shape but if anyone can pull it out of the bag it'll be him. The long tt at the end means that if he is anywhere within 2 mins of the lead at that time he will be favourite to win.
He can probably afford to ride a lot more defensively at the Vuelta which will suit him as he looked quite tired at the Olympics and the excessive traveling won't have helped him. It'll be up to the others to drop him.
I think he's going for the win so he can then attempt to win the Giro next year and hold all three Grand Tours at the same time. Has that been done before?
3 weeks is a long time so anything could happen. Should be an exciting 3 weeks, unless your a sprinter
Nonsense.
If he is 2 minutes down, it means he has lost a significant amount of time on the MTF's. (isn't the strongest with a relatively big margin) and is supposed and expected to be the one fade the most in the end, probably apart from Valverde.
If Contador is 2 minutes ahead, he will be the glaring favourite at that point. He even gained time on Froome on the ITT in 2012 (the peak year for his ITT's along with 2013, Froome's that is) in the Vuelta when Froome began to fade after Tour + Olympics.
If Quintana is 2 minutes ahead, he will be the favourite. If you look at last year's late ITT which is super comparable, Quintana lost under 2 minutes to a peak Dumoulin who trashed the field. So not only does he have to do better than Dumoulin, but he also has to be equal or better than Quintana on the last, long MTF where he has lost 2 minutes previously over the last 18 stages in this scenario.
Same thing with Valverde. All those guys can fend for themselves and won't bleed massive amount of time in a Vuelta ITT late in the race. This is way different than Tour de France.
Well Froome won't be 2 mins down anyway so it's a mute point
The last TT of this distance was at the last TdF a couple of months ago. Froome put just under 2 mins into Valverde and over 2 mins in Quintana. Contador hasn't done a decent tt since 2012, as you say. I stand by my comment.
In the last tt of the TdF, which was only 17k long, he put 1.10 into Quintana and 1.18 into Valverde. At x3 the distance he could have potentially put 3 mins into both of them.
I agree that Froome isn't the favourite as he is looking tired. But if he rides defensively I don't think anyone will put that much time into him in the mountains, and if he is in striking distance at the tt he can pull it out of the bag. Obviously no one is going to hand it to him on a plate, but at a tt over that distance at that stage of the Vuelta there is potential for significant time gaps between the favourites.
Contador won Giro 15' in the 60-km ITT. 3 min in Aru, 4 in Landa. This year has won two ITT (In Pais Vasco, which gave him the GC, and Dauphine) |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 23-08-2016 09:37
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ringo182 wrote:
What I mean is he hasn't got close to Froome in a long tt for years.
That's not true either, partly because Contador beat him in their last long TT.
Good Time Trials by Contador
Pais Vasco 2016 - won
Dauphine Prologue 2016, prologue - won
Giro 2015 - 3rd (had way worse conditions than Kiryienka tho, likely would have won)
Vuelta 2014 - 4th, almost a minute ahead of Froomster, the last long TT against each other!
Dauphine 2014, prologue - 2nd, behind Froomster
Pais Vasco 2014 - 2nd
Tour 2013 - 2nd, one second behind Froomster. that was arguably his worst year ever, mind you, and he still came a second close to him on that hilly tt
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 09:42
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ringo182 wrote:
What I mean is he hasn't got close to Froome in a long tt for years.
He beat him pretty good in that Vuelta ITT in 2014...
Do you also remember his ITT in the Giro last year? He won't lose minutes, heck, at that point of the race he will probably gain time if Froome fades and Contador gets better as we expect. |
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| ringo182 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 09:47
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Riis123 wrote:
ringo182 wrote:
What I mean is he hasn't got close to Froome in a long tt for years.
He beat him pretty good in that Vuelta ITT in 2014...
Do you also remember his ITT in the Giro last year? He won't lose minutes, heck, at that point of the race he will probably gain time if Froome fades and Contador gets better as we expect.
How can you expect anything? No one here has any real idea of what condition any rider is in.
And yes, Contador has done well in the past, but your going back a couple of years and the majority of tt's listed by Shonak are prologues or short TT's. Froome has form this year. He is Olympic bronze medallist and put minutes into everyone at the Tour 2016.
I agree that Froome isn't the favourite as his has looked tired. But his recent form has shown him to be head a shoulders above the other GT favourites at long time trials. |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 23-08-2016 09:54
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ringo182 wrote:
I agree that Froome isn't the favourite as his has looked tired. But his recent form has shown him to be head a shoulders above the other GT favourites at long time trials.
What form, July form you try to apply on different race in September?
Oh gosh, you have to be the disciple of Aarberg...
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| ringo182 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 10:01
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
ringo182 wrote:
I agree that Froome isn't the favourite as his has looked tired. But his recent form has shown him to be head a shoulders above the other GT favourites at long time trials.
What form, July form you try to apply on different race in September?
Oh gosh, you have to be the disciple of Aarberg...
Well the counter argument is Contador's form from 2014 so... |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 23-08-2016 10:12
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ringo182 wrote:
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
ringo182 wrote:
I agree that Froome isn't the favourite as his has looked tired. But his recent form has shown him to be head a shoulders above the other GT favourites at long time trials.
What form, July form you try to apply on different race in September?
Oh gosh, you have to be the disciple of Aarberg...
Well the counter argument is Contador's form from 2014 so...
That was only counter-argument to your nonsense about Contador not doing well in TT since 2012.
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| ringo182 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 10:18
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
ringo182 wrote:
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
ringo182 wrote:
I agree that Froome isn't the favourite as his has looked tired. But his recent form has shown him to be head a shoulders above the other GT favourites at long time trials.
What form, July form you try to apply on different race in September?
Oh gosh, you have to be the disciple of Aarberg...
Well the counter argument is Contador's form from 2014 so...
That was only counter-argument to your nonsense about Contador not doing well in TT since 2012.
Fair enough
I think in cycling form is irrelevant as different riders peak for different races at different times of the year. Froome may beat Contador in one race but then Contador may win another if he id nearer to his peak.
I don't think it can be disputed that if both riders were at their peak then Froome will beat Contadotr over a long tt. The big question will be their condition at the time the tt happens, which no one can predict at this point.
Therefore I make Froome the favourite to make up time in the TT at this point. That may change over the next 2 weeks. |
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 10:57
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Contador is finished, his time is over, he should stop career now, before he make himself more ridiculous, than he has already done.
Contador gives up or lose by more than 10min.
Edited by Arberg27 on 23-08-2016 11:05
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| ringo182 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 11:08
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I don't think Contador is finished however he clearly isn't in good shape based on the first 3 days.
Historically Contador has been much better than Froome and Quintana on short sharp climbs so to loose so much time yesterday doesn't bode well for when they get to the real mountains. He may just have had a bad day but losing 30 seconds yesterday could translate to minutes on a proper mountain. Especially as he will potentially need to make up at least 3 mins now on Froome to try to hold him off at the last tt. |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 23-08-2016 11:34
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Dont forget that Nibali was also rated as done at Giro second week.
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| ringo182 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 11:38
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True, although the calibre of GT riders wasn't as high at the Giro. No one had the real quality to bury Nibali when he was struggling.
Also, I can't see Froome/Sky allowing Contador to ride away and gain 2 or 3 minutes on one stage like Nibali did. |
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 23-08-2016 11:44
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Froome was not with |
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| Guido Mukk |
Posted on 23-08-2016 12:31
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Arberg27 wrote:
Wheelsucker riders like Quintana and Valverde is not a threat.
Exciting about Chaves and/or Fernández can win much time on Froome before the long flat time trial on 19 stage.
Calling Valverde wheel sucker is already personal insult against me.
How damn stupid and blind fanboy can you be?
Please Daily create already ignore function, I can not take this shit anymore. It is impossible to ignore that mount of shit flow. |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 23-08-2016 12:32
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Froome in Vuelta is not Froome in Tour---he will fade and finish outside of podium or 3rd at best.
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| Guido Mukk |
Posted on 23-08-2016 12:35
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Froome in Vuelta is not Froome in Tour---he will fade and finish outside of podium or 3rd at best.
Froome will be fine. But you are correct about Froome and TdF. I just finished he's book.. This man is obsessed about Tdf (always has been) as Lance was. |
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