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Le Tour de France 2016 | Stage 7 | L'Isle-Jourdain - Lac de Payolle
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 09:48
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Étape Sept | L'Isle-Jourdain | Lac de Payolle | 163km | Mountainous | Un Cat 4 et un Cat 1, et un sprint intermédiaire (duh)
Some Pyrenean action in the first week, what a treat! Yes it's certainly not as common recently for one of the first 7 days to have a Cat 1 climb in it but we ascend the Col D'Aspin, usually used as a tool in a stage involving Pau, Bagneres or both but Aspin takes the spotlight as the centrepiece of this first Mountain test. It was included last year in the stage won by Rafal Majka, with second on the day Dan Martin leading over the climb.
It's a finish much like stage 11 last year, with a centrepiece climb, there Tourmalet, here Aspin, with a decent then a small climb to the finish, though here it's more a minor drag. However here the stunning scenery on the descent is matched only by it's technicality and could be a deciding factor if, I don't know, a shark is feeling hungry? Descent should suit Nibali, Contador (those two fitness dependent) and Bardet if it's a GC battle at the front, with Pinot and Quintana in not much, but perhaps a bit, of risk of splits on the descent.
 Alejandro Valverde
 Romain Bardet
 Julian Alaphillipe
 Chris Froome
Nairo Quintana
 Joaquim Rodgriguez
 Fabio Aru
Dan Martin
Vicenzo Nibali
 Alberto Contador
 Richie Porte
 Warren Barguil
All other climbers, notables include Pinot and TGVJ, who personally I think won't win but will be in the group. Any opportunist who's feeling spicy.
jandal's jinx
My pick for today is the break, with BMC looking to their GC man TJ, GVA could lose the jersey, but the Stormtroopers and the Not-Contador-quistadors may not want it, or much pacemaking duties today. That said, 5 minutes is a fair bit. Anyway, this should leave men like Rui Costa or other semi-strong climbers to contest the win as the best of the break.
Edited by jandal7 on 08-07-2016 10:32
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 09:53
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Two words: Rui Costa  |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 09:54
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Indeed it looks like his Dauphine stage last year, many sites using it as a preview photo 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 08-07-2016 09:57
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Valverde would be great pick for this stage, but maybe he will burn himself for Nairo earlier?
I wonder if SKY will try their mountain train madness already today, or waiting for weekend? And maybe Movistar will try to do the same just before them? 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:04
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Hmm, he was really not impressive so far...if he goes into the break I see a chance for him though - in my eyes it should be a breakaway day. Some names to throw in? Besides Costa I take Zakarin, Konrad, Pantano, Geschke, Slagter & Navarro I can see perhaps even Nibali or Landa going for it...
@jandal: Quintana in a risk of split on the descent? I´ve never seen him loosing contact to someone on a descent...
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| Strydz |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:05
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Surely Sky and Movistar will let the break gain enough time so someone else has to look after the Yellow, for the win someone like Costa if the break stays away or Bardet if it all comes back together
Edited by Strydz on 08-07-2016 10:06
Hells 500 Crew and 6 x Everester
Don Rd Launching Place
Melbourne Hill Rd Warrandyte
Colby Drive Belgrave South
William Rd The Patch
David Hill Rd Monbulk
Lakeside Drive Emerald
https://www.everesting.cc/hall-of-fame/ |
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:06
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If played right this looks delicious for the action seeking spectator, better be good
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:06
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Finally time to Pyrenees and Froome power demonstration! |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:07
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sgdanny wrote:
If played right this looks delicious for the action seeking spectator, better be good
I guess there won´t be too much action on Aspin despite all raging about Tinkoff being early with no rider left in the group of favourites...
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| ianrussell |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:12
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Croatia14 wrote:
sgdanny wrote:
If played right this looks delicious for the action seeking spectator, better be good
I guess there won´t be too much action on Aspin despite all raging about Tinkoff being early with no rider left in the group of favourites...
Not many had teammates left at the end of even stage 5 (granted some helpers dropped off by just a few seconds at the death but you get the point).
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:18
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ianrussell wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
sgdanny wrote:
If played right this looks delicious for the action seeking spectator, better be good
I guess there won´t be too much action on Aspin despite all raging about Tinkoff being early with no rider left in the group of favourites...
Not many had teammates left at the end of even stage 5 (granted some helpers dropped off by just a few seconds at the death but you get the point).
meant that there will be no captain of Tinkoff too 
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| Kirchen_75 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:28
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I don't think GVA will lose yellow today. If he climbs as well as he did on wednesday he will easily retain it. Aspin isn't a very hard climb, fairly regular 8%. Wednesday climbs were shorter but had over 10% for 2-3 k's
I pick Nibbles to win this stage, he will get in the break
Edited by Kirchen_75 on 08-07-2016 10:31
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:30
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Kirchen_75 wrote:
I don't think GVA will lose yellow today. If he climbs as well as he did on wednesday he will easily retain it. Aspin isn't a very hard climb, fairly regular 8%. Wednesday climbs were shorter but had over 10% for 2-3 k's
Yeah me neither, it depends on how it's played. Chatting with others reckon it could go either way, wouldn't be shocked if he held it for another day with the comfortable cushion he has. Aspin isnt brutal or indeed matched with any other tough climbs so he could certainly be in yellow.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 10:34
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A good and standard introduction to the Pyrenees and the next 2 brutal days. I don't really know what to expect - initially after the route was released, I thought it was here Froome would stamp his authority. He is by far the best 1 climb climber. After what I have seen so far, I have my doubts.
Break to take it unless Katyusha and Etixx will send 1 man to the front and keep them close for the opportunity of a win for Martin/Rodriguez, maybe even Ala. Costa is a good shout FTW, I have even played him @ 29,00. Good outside winner.
I think at least 1 of the bigger GC guys will lose terrain, Pinot is my guess. Hoping for some Aru/Bardet attack fiesta, I really like these rider's aggressiveness and they are what we need now that Contador is hurt. |
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| ianrussell |
Posted on 08-07-2016 12:23
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Initial 12 going for it including Costa and Cav seemingly marking Sagan
Gorka Izagirre (Movistar), Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana), Peter Sagan (Tinkoff), Jarlinson Pantano (IAM Cycling), Ramunas Navardauskas (Cannondale-Drapac), Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data), Jérémy Roy (FDJ), Cesare Benedetti (Bora-Argon 18), Rui Costa (Lampre-Merida), Nicolas Edet and Geoffrey Soupe (Cofidis), Chris Anker Sørensen (Fortuneo-Vital Concept) form the front group.
Just 20 seconds and Etixx reported on the front though.
Edited by ianrussell on 08-07-2016 12:28
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| Kirchen_75 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 12:29
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Looks like Cav isnt gonna abandon if hes on Sagan like that  |
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| ianrussell |
Posted on 08-07-2016 12:32
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Yup, starting to look more like gamesmanship now
20 points at the intermediate not to be sniffed at given that's equaivalent to a flat stage 3rd place.
Edited by ianrussell on 08-07-2016 12:34
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 12:33
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If Quintana doesn't lose time today I think chances are he will win it all. I don't see Froome distancing him at the multi mountain stages, nor at Ventoux. |
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| ianrussell |
Posted on 08-07-2016 12:35
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Up to 35 secs but Etixx predictably not happy and chasing...
edit - 40 seconds now and approaching the magic 1 minute+ |
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 12:43
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Does Etixx really think Kittel has a shot at green jersey? They are madmen if they do... |
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