Hello and welcome to jandal's (my) jandally (Made up word I did to describe something of my style, e.g. weird and inaccurate) guide (haha more like IQ lowererer) to (not two or too) Le Tour (log out and rethink your life if this needs explaining). Bad French and bad analysis will surely unintentionally follow. Read on, if you dare...






Étape Huit | Pau - Bagnères-de-Luchon | 184km | Mountainous | Un Cat. 2, Deux Cat.1, un HC, et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)


The Col du Tourmalet kicks off festivites with a bang with the break vying for 25 KoM points and the Souvenir Jacques Goddet. Speaking of KoMs I'd be shocked if we didn't get a new leader in the polka dots with 50 points up for grabs - and all, bar maybe one, should be contested by the break. We then get the long descent before the Cat. 2 Hourquette d'Ancizan and then two Cat. 1 mountains in the shape of the Cols d'Azet and de Peyresourde, two frequent Tour tests. Both, in fact, were last used in the Pla D'Adet stage in 2014, won of course by Rafal Majka. Both, particularly Peyresourde, are frequently used in Pau - Bagnères-de-Luchon (and vice versa) stages, or really any stage with one of these two famous Pyrenean host towns in its name.


'Ello 'ello 'ello. What do we have here? Yes the first Hors Catégorie climb of Le Tour 2016 and it's much earlier than the last two years - the legendary Col Du Tourmalet, nearly 20km averaging 7.4% gradient is a true test of the mettle for any rider, and as the first climb of the day it's brutal.


A very tough test up the Col d'Azet - should see a(nother) thinning of both break and bunch as we hit the penultimate climb. It'll be survival of the fittest on this 11km slog up this mountain, before we go back down to...


It's shorter than the previous two big ones but goddamn, it's tough. The final test before the common descent into Bagnères-de-Luchon is 7km but it's at 8% and never lets up, never gives you any respite, and it never drops below 5% gradient. We then begin the drop into Bagnères-de-Luchon, last a feature when Michael Rogers won his third GT stage of 2014 in smart fashion. It's downhill under the last 500m, where a flat sprint will ensue if someone hasn't gone solo. Bagnères-de-Luchon is also a favorite of one Tommy Voeckler.

***** The break
****
*** Nibali, Bardet, Contador
** Quintana, Froome, Porte, Aru, Valverde, Majka
* Pinot, Landa, Meintjes, Yates, van Garderen, Barguil, Rolland, Another climber


Étape Neuf | Vielha Val d'Aran - Andorre Arcalis | 185km | Mountainous | Un Cat. 2, Trois Cat.1, un HC, et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)


OhmygodOhmygodOhmygod. It's beautiful! The first Mountaintop finish of Le Tour de "France" is entirely in Spain and Andorra, and the entertainment is cranked up the 200%, hopefully. Andorre Arcalis has been used twice as a summit finish in Le Tour, won by Jan Ullrich and, erm, Brice Feillu, who now riders for Fortuneo-Vital Concept. I don't see him pulling off a repeat.


What a last 47km. The short but steep Cat. 2 Côte de la Comella, the slightly longer but even steeper Cat. 1 Col de Beixalis (which may cause some PTSD for Froomebot) and finally the long way up to Andorre Arcalis, which is officially 10km at 7.2%, though you could make a case for it being tougher with plenty of stop/start hills in the leadup to the final 10km.

***** The break
**** Froome, Quintana, Contador
*** Aru, Nibali, Porte, Bardet, Pinot, van Garderen, Landa, Majka
** Meintjes, Yates, Poels, Barguil, Rodriguez, Rolland
* D. Martin, Costa, Everyone else who can climb


Étape Dix | Escaldes-Engordany - Revel | 197km | Weird Asian PCM Race-ish | Un Cat. 2, duex Cat.1, et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)


Well the Tour organisers really want to appeal to the Asian masses, as this looks like something out of Langkawi or Qinghai Lake. Seriously they do have a twisted sense of humour with the riders ascending A Cat. 1 Andorran climb before 139km of flat stage stuff. Crazy, huh. We re enter France as the stage numbers look like double digits, the GC riders will be happy to recuperate after yesterday's summit finish and the sprinters and roleurs will be happy to be out of the Pyrenees. The opportunists, potentially fuelled by up to six consecutive (not happening) break wins, will be looking for a chance, if the teams of Sagan, Kristoff, or even the puncheurs, aren't on the prowl for the stage win. Mind you, it's almost 200km. Imagine that, I've just theorised about a straight week of break wins. You never know, if Froome takes yellow on stage 2 I can see it happening like last year. With no chance really of a break succeeding tomorrow this is the chance for a French yellow jersey for Bastille Day up Mont Ventoux


The initial response is these last 10km are made for Peter Sagan, but look again and I think your correct answer is.... Steven Cummings. Be it from the break or solo attack I think he can take the stage here. Seriously if the break is caught it could be a puncheur attacking, an all-around sprinter sprinting, or a late powerhouse opportunist. Tony Martin, anyone?

***** The break (full of Frenchmen)
****
*** Sagan, Alaphilippe, D. Martin, T. Martin , Cummings , Kristoff, Coquard, Greipel, Boasson Hagen, Mathews, Degenkolb
** Any other late attacker, Albasini, Gerrans, Gallopin, van Avermaet
* Groenewegen


Étape Onze | Carcassonne - Montpellier | 163km | Flat | Deux Cat. 4 et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)


Pan flat and a chance for the sprinters to get their mojo back, particularly if Kittel and Bouhanni among others have properly recovered. 99% a bunch sprint as Montpellier has become a hive of sprinter's glory.


Slight drag to the finish but nothing to rule anyone in or out, similar to stage 3 in that all the main powerhouse fast men should be at the forefront. GC men will enjoy the day off.

***** Kittel, Greipel
**** Cavendish, Bouhanni, Kristoff, Degenkolb, Sagan
*** Coquard, A crazy leadout, Boasson Hagen
** Groenewegen
* Other sprinters, The break


Étape Douze | Montpellier - Mont Ventoux | 184km | Mountainous (____/) | Deux Cat. 4, un HC, et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)


And bang! Straight back into it with the Bald Mountain testing the mettle of every rider in the race once more on Bastille Day. Like 2014 we may well see a brief stint of a Frenchman in yellow after a likely French majority break on stage 10, depending on beforehand GC. Expect an assault from Rolland, Barguil, Bardet and Pinot for French pride and the usual majority french break for Bastille Day.

Chris Froome dominated last time out, back in his first TDF victory in 2013. It's a _____/ stage, but on Ventoux, it has to be, and you won't find anyone complaining about that. GC men should be fresh after two easier days and we should see a straight shoot-out between them, provided Team Sky aren't just trying to make friends like last year and the break battles it out.


I'm sure you've all seen this picture a lot but I need it in the preview, and we all should take in the brutality of what every rider, from Froome to Kittel, will have to take on. 16km at a relentless 9%. Keep tuned to your TV for another real sign of who's hot and who's not, ahead of tomorrow's bumpy ITT. This will also be a test of the recuperation heading into the Alps later of the two BMC men in particular with doubts over them, but everyone really. Nibali and Valverde may start to fatigue, being the only GC men to finish the Giro, and in first and second respectively. Lucky for them, they're just super-domestiques here.

***** Froome, Quintana, Bardet, Pinot
**** Contador, Aru, Porte, Nibali, van Garderen, Majka
*** The break, Landa, Barguil, Rolland
** Meintjes, Yates
* Anyone else who can climb


Étape Treize | Bourg-Saint-Andéol - La Caverne du Pont-d'Arc | 38km | ITT (Hilly)


An ITT with a few climbs mean it's not the end of the world for the pure climbers but it's certainly going to be some seconds made for Nibali, Froome and Contador especially. Martin and Dumoulin amongst more will be on the hunt for a stage win, whilst Quintana and Pinot especially will be hoping all their good work on the TT bike works out.


The last 3km is all uphill and should see the climbers gain some time back, and so especially should suit the purer stage racers, like Froome, Nibali, Contador and van Garderen. Very hard prediction as theoretically only TT specialists and GC men will be in with a chance, but who knows who could surprise.

***** T. Dumoulin, Froome, Contador
**** Nibali, Kiryienka, Martin
*** Quintana, Pinot, Kelderman, Costa, van Garderen, Amador, Valverde, J. Izagirre
** Kreuziger, Bardet, Barguil, Aru, Alaphilippe, Castroviejo, Cancellara
* De Gendt, Gallopin, Costa, Cummings


Étape Quatorze | Montélimar - Villars-les-Dombes Parc des Oiseaux | 209km | Flat | Trois Cat. 4, et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)


The sprinters will have used the ITT as a bit of a rest and so should be in fine tune for the last day of the second week, particularly with the headwind finish a blow to the breakaway's chances.


Pan flat finish after a longer day of racing should see many of the same sprinters contesting as previous stages. Two big question marks hang over Bennett and Groenewegen, Bennett really suffered in the mountains in his debut last year whilst this is the first GT for Dylan Groenewegen, who is very much capable of surprising us all.

***** Kittel, Greipel
**** Cavendish, Bouhanni, Sagan, Kristoff, Degenkolb
*** Coquard, Mathews, A crazy leadout
** Boasson Hagen
* Bennett, Groenewegen, other sprinters, The break