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Cycling betting
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| Squire |
Posted on 16-06-2016 08:38
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I don't think backing Kelderman for the stage win and backing Costa over him is a good idea. What is most likely to happen is that he beats Costa but doesn't win the stage. Both are basically mutually exclusive longshots, so I'd have chosen one.
Stage 6
150 NOK Miguel Lopez over Michele Scarponi @ 1.60
110 NOK Ion Izagirre over Jarlinson Pantano @ 1.95
A bit late to the party with Lopez, but I think that's still a pretty solid one, considering today's climb.
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 16-06-2016 10:28
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Squire wrote:
I don't think backing Kelderman for the stage win and backing Costa over him is a good idea. What is most likely to happen is that he beats Costa but doesn't win the stage. Both are basically mutually exclusive longshots, so I'd have chosen one.
Stage 6
150 NOK Miguel Lopez over Michele Scarponi @ 1.60
110 NOK Ion Izagirre over Jarlinson Pantano @ 1.95
A bit late to the party with Lopez, but I think that's still a pretty solid one, considering today's climb.
You know why I played that? I got fucking limited at Lopez to 120 DKK @ 1,85 and another duel I can't remember to 60 DKK at Nordicbet. I've gone from 5K to 2K during Dauphine + Suisse at bet365, but have gone from 2,5K to 8K on Nordicbet during the same races. Frustrating........ Lopez @ 1,85 was super good value.
Kelderman? Meh. I thought about the steep climb in Pais Vasco where he did well and he seemed to climb super well yesterday. Who knows, but its not good betting, I agree. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 16-06-2016 16:40
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Riis123 wrote:
100 DKK Grosschartner > Armee @Â 2,50
100 DKK Rui Costs > Jesleycrashman @ 2,37
200 DKK Lopez > Scarponi @ 1,85
200 DKK Atapuma > De La Parte @ 2,20
100 DKK Kelderman to win stage 6 @Â 19,00
Good day, once again picked the best of the GC-riders on the day, but once again the break fucking it up for me.  |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 17-06-2016 00:22
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350 DKK Ion Izaguirre > Talansky @ 2,75
200 DKK TJ > Gorka Izaguirre @ 1,53
200 DKK Kelderman > Barguil @ 2,00
150 DKK Thomas > Latour @ 2,00
140 DKK Pantano > Rui Costa @ 1,65
Edited by Riis123 on 17-06-2016 13:42
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| Squire |
Posted on 17-06-2016 00:36
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So who was Costa's h2h opponent if not Kelderman? I based my previous post on the assumption that it was him. 
Squire wrote:
Stage 6
150 NOK Miguel Lopez over Michele Scarponi @ 1.60
110 NOK Ion Izagirre over Jarlinson Pantano @ 1.95
Stage 7
180 NOK Andrew Talansky over Wilco Kelderman @ 2.33
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 17-06-2016 08:12
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Whoops. I lost that bet.
Well, thats a overall loss again then. Isn't hat great. Party pooper. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 17-06-2016 23:59
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Finally managed to find some legitimate good odds in Suisse. Feeling very good about tomorrow:
300 DKK Ion Izaguirre > Spilak @ 1,45
250 DKK Talansky > Gorka Izaguirre @ 1,72
250 DKK M.A Lopez > Barguil @ 1,62
200 DKK TJ > Kiri @ 2,00
100 DKK M.A Lopez to win overall @Â 10,00
100 DKK Barguil to win overall @Â 34,00 (now @ 4,50) |
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| Squire |
Posted on 18-06-2016 00:21
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Squire wrote:
Stage 7
180 NOK Andrew Talansky over Wilco Kelderman @ 2.33
No odds for tomorrow yet. Considering I won't be at my computer for some time, I might end up not playing anything for the TT.
@Riis123
Although I admire your betting performance so far, you sometimes have a strange idea about what's legitimately good odds. 
I wouldn't have played Izagirre over Spilak even if the Spaniard was the underdog. A TT like tomorrow's is very dependent on form, where Spilak has a slight edge at the moment. The Slovenian is just as much of a TT specialist as Izagirre, and remember when Ion TTed well in the spring, he was also much better on the climbs. A little fanboyism involved?
Talansky is solid, TJ is decent, but I don't know from where you have got the notion that Lopez is a useful time trial rider. I'd say him and Barguil are at least 50-50, if not slightly in favour of Barguil, and I don't see how Lopez can have any chance of holding off Talansky for the overall. Don't know when you placed that Lopez overall bet though. Is the Barguil one the one you had pre-race?
Now let's hope it'll be the same story as after all my previous criticisms. 
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| Squire |
Posted on 18-06-2016 09:22
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Tour de Suisse Stage 8
200 NOK Andrew Talansky over Gorka Izagirre @ 1.50
115 NOK Simon Spilak over Ion Izagirre @ 2.85
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 18-06-2016 16:20
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Squire wrote:
Squire wrote:
Stage 7
180 NOK Andrew Talansky over Wilco Kelderman @ 2.33
Now let's hope it'll be the same story as after all my previous criticisms.
Thanks! |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 18-06-2016 16:27
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Riis123 wrote:
Finally managed to find some legitimate good odds in Suisse. Feeling very good about tomorrow:
300 DKK Ion Izaguirre > Spilak @ 1,45
250 DKK Talansky > Gorka Izaguirre @ 1,72
250 DKK M.A Lopez > Barguil @ 1,62
200 DKK TJ > Kiri @ 2,00
100 DKK M.A Lopez to win overall @Â 10,00
100 DKK Barguil to win overall @Â 34,00 (now @ 4,50)
First really good day in this shit race for me. M.A Lopez is also a really good bet now. |
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| Squire |
Posted on 18-06-2016 17:54
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Hahah, I'll shut my big mouth!
Squire wrote:
Tour de Suisse Stage 8
200 NOK Andrew Talansky over Gorka Izagirre @ 1.50
115 NOK Simon Spilak over Ion Izagirre @ 2.85
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 18-06-2016 18:16
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Lopez, Talansky and Ion were total blowouts. Only TJ was somewhat close, haha. 
Can you un-jinx my every bet through July? It will be interesting how much the bookmakers will keep an eye on Poland, might be able to find gems there.
But hey, you lead Velogames ahead of me and by brother. LOL. |
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| Squire |
Posted on 18-06-2016 18:48
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I'll give you credit for predicting that the little climber-built-like-a-sprinter who lost again Purito and Henao in his only respectable ITT could suddenly out-TT Cancellara in his own playground (was it the nats TT that convinced you?), but I still maintain that forking out such a stake on that Izagirre bet was some really suspect value betting, regardless of what actually ended up happening.
Velogames is a nice consolation. But just to add salt to the "wound", hadn't it been for Izagirre's TT, I could've won the whole damn thing. Now his points give me too much of a gap to close with my (likely) excellent final GC positions.
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 18-06-2016 20:40
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Hmm I don't quite agree. Ion Izagirre has been an absolute monster on ITTs lately while Spilak has been very, very suspect. This isn't 2015-Spilak, he seems to have regressed quite a bit IMO. So him winning by that much wasn't surprising to me quite frankly. Maybe I am biased here, but Ion has taken a step up, while Spilak has taken a step down. Especially when it comes to time trials. Romandie ITT was a perfect indication here and they lowered the odds across the board after I got it @ 1,45, altho I must admit Spilak @ 3,00 was very tempting re. my betting scheme.
I dno on Lopez. Had heard something about him being a decent time trialist and I knew Barguil was a train wreck. So I went for it. But without a doubt, Talansky was the best value bet there. Speaks volumes when you play it @ 1,50. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 18-06-2016 22:46
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200 DKK Atapuma > Kiri @ 1,40
200 DKK Ion Izagirre > Barguil @Â 2,37
200 DKK Rui Costa > Pantano @ 2,75
200 DKK Lopez > Talansky @ 2,20
200 DKK Spilak > TJ 3,00
150 DKK Gorka I > Chernetski @ 2,75
100 DKK Gorka I > Berhane @ 1,85
50 DKK Jan Hirt > La Parte @ 2,75
Lopez to win stage @Â 34,00
The method behind the madness is it finishes downhill and therefore, sometimes, is a bit more random of who finishes better.
And these bets still stand:
100 DKK M.A Lopez to win overall @ 10,00 (now @ 1,57)
100 DKK Barguil to win overall @ 34,00 (now @ 7,50)
Edited by Riis123 on 19-06-2016 11:04
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 19-06-2016 10:12
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Please no weather protocol. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 19-06-2016 18:43
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Riis123 wrote:
200 DKK Atapuma > Kiri @ 1,40
200 DKK Ion Izagirre > Barguil @Â 2,37
200 DKK Rui Costa > Pantano @ 2,75
200 DKK Lopez > Talansky @ 2,20
200 DKK Spilak > TJ 3,00
150 DKK Gorka I > Chernetski @ 2,75
100 DKK Gorka I > Berhane @ 1,85
50 DKK Jan Hirt > La Parte @ 2,75
Lopez to win stage @Â 34,00
The method behind the madness is it finishes downhill and therefore, sometimes, is a bit more random of who finishes better.
And these bets still stand:
100 DKK M.A Lopez to win overall @ 10,00 (now @ 1,57)
100 DKK Barguil to win overall @ 34,00 (now @ 7,50)
Decent overall. I think I lost 1K here, while I won 2-3K in Dauphine. Not quite as successful as in the Giro, at all, but I've had some close but no cigars stage wins: Bardet (break with Pinot) , Barguil (Atapuma from break), Kelderman (break) and Lopez today. |
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| Squire |
Posted on 19-06-2016 18:59
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Tour de Suisse Overall
30 NOK Warren Barguil Win @ 30
120 NOK Andrew Talansky over Rui Costa @ 2.60
Not a great Tour de Suisse. Profit of 251 NOK, 1486 NOK in winnings for total stakes of 1235 NOK, which is a 120% return.
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 19-06-2016 19:05
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Posts: 5075
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Didn't you lose the Talansky bet?
Now it will get interesting for Le Tour. Hoping for someone to screw up top-10s etc, I hope they will be out in a couple of days. And with this route, I think I'll take a punt on Kittel for green @Â 6,00, but looking to find something higher. |
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