Riis123 wrote:
Actually, I think Kittel at 8 is a decent odds. Which of the GC-team would be interested in a fast pace? Think they will wait until the end of the week. If he doesn't get dropped, he pretty much wins.
I also just played Kung at 151,00 and Mareszko at 201,00 cause yolo.
I don't think Kittel and Mareczko will contest tomorrow.
I dont either, but if Kittel does, he will win, so thats that. At 8 Ill give it a shot.
Funny, I thought about Arndt as well, but Sbaragli has actually been very good so far. Honestly, I think I will give it a shot, but would have like the odds to be higher.
Majka has finished higher on all stages so far, buts its a bit random, but there is a pattern. Again, if it was above 2.50, I had played it, but too low. Dont play.
Modolo was the odds that caught my eyes, but at that point, it was 2.20. Now that its 2.00, dont play it.
The odds I feel best about is Greipel>Demare at 2,37. They are 1-1 so far in the sprints.
Honestly, I would also advice taking a long shot on Cancellara. At 151, its worth the shot, he says he feels better and its a very good final for him.
Very interesting stage tomorrow. I think I found some gems here, especially Fuglsang. More or less everything out at this point - if I lose all bets, its game over. Edited by Riis123 on 12-05-2016 01:28
I fould a couple of interesting bets for today (on Bet365).
Andrey Amador > Ryder Hesjedal 2.10
History tells that Hesjedal isn't doing all that well in the beginning, and this stage has Valverde written all over it, so I suspect that Movistar will put down the hammer, and possibly have 4 riders in top 20 (including Amador).
Siutsou > Formolo 2.37
Formolo is (I think) too close to the front to be allowed to go away, as he has several possibly interests, such as young riders jersey and possibly the mountains competition. If he isn't riding all too well today he might lose a few minutes to be allowed more leeway later on, while Siutsou seems in strong shape and will probably try to see what he can do as a GC rider with Anton and Kudus both a fair bit behind.
Monfort > Kudus 2.25
I don't think we will see Kudus already. The stage is not that hard, and there are not many points for a KOM - Also, the favorites are likely to hold on to the breaks and keep a high pace. I think Monfort will try to keep close in the GC -He is only 1.50 down atm.
Pozzovivo > Landa 2.00
Pozzovivo has been on recon on this climb, and wants to win the stage, whether he is allowed to or not is a big question. Landa is starting off a bit weak, and imo the finish doesn't suit him great. He just doesn't want to lose time.
I like your Amador odds, but I hesitated a bit since he may or may not be used to control the affairs. But Hesjedal is an abomination in the first week. Monfort is good as well.
Does anybody know why Firsanov has increased to 2,75? Sickness? If not, sick value there.
Fuglsang and Dumoulin odds have been lowered quite a bit. Glad I thew everybody at them!
Dno. Everybody and their blind relatives know that Dumoulin is bullshitting and won't give the jersey up for free. That shouldn't really come as a surprise to anyone and everybody has the profile of the last climb available, safe to say, it isn't super hard.
The odds was simply just too high is my guesstimate. Happens a lot when they are released, they often need time to get it right which is why its the best time to play IMO.
Very interesting stage tomorrow. I think I found some gems here, especially Fuglsang. More or less everything out at this point - if I lose all bets, its game over.
300 up for today. Thank god Fuglsang was a beast today, I was really scared when he went that far into a headwind!
Also, Firsanov at 3,00 v Brambilla? Holy. If I had any money left, woulda placed the rest there. Really hope someone did.
