The route of the Paris - Roubaix start quite easy for the first 100 kilometers. However, that will only be the calm that precedes the storm as the last 150 kilometers are plagued with cobbled sections. The most renowned ones will be the 5 star sections of the Trouee d'Arenberg, the Mons-en-Pevele and the Carrefour de l'Arbre. At least the weather will be quite good for the riders, which should limit the number of crashes that we see in the race. As usual, the finish line will be placed at the Velodrome in Roubaix, where the race might be decided.
There was quite a bit of a battle to form the break as a couple of teams, most notably Lotto, did not want a dangerous break up the road. A group of 8 settled at the front and by the time they started the cobbled sections they had a 3' 20'' gap on the peloton. The group included riders like Julien Simon (BMC), Adriano Malori (Trek), Jure Kocjan (Katusha), Jonathan Tiernan-Locke (Lampre) and Alessandro de Marchi (LottoNL). Meanwhile, George Hincapie (Lotto) was doing most of the work to control the peloton, which gives a hint as to how strong a team Lotto has for the cobbled races.
Lotto was not keen on doing most of the work at the bunch and they decided to trigger an attack with Chris Sutton (Lotto). He was followed by 4 other riders and they quickly bridged the gap to the break. Among those we could find Yoann Offredo (IAM), Sebastian Langeveld (Cannondale) and John Degenkolb (HTC). Etixx had to react and Tim Wellens (Etixx) led the group through the Trouee d'Arenberg. However, the gap had grown to 5 minutes with 85 kilometers remaining. That was quite a dangerous gap considering that the group of favorites was no longer a big peloton.
Lloyd Mondory (Etixx) had started to work at the front of the group of favorites given the gap was not coming down but he soon suffered a puncture and Maarten Tjallingii (Etixx) had to wait for him. They would not have trouble coming back to the group but it was quite an inconvenience. The break had broken down into pieces and only 5 riders stayed at the front, with all of the riders from the early break losing ground. Lotto was working but not too hard as they still had Chris Sutton at the front. Therefore, the gap still was 3' 35'' with 63 kilometers to go.
It looked like the punctures were the key events of the day. Bjorn Leukemans (Lotto) also punctured a tyre in the Mons-en-Pevele sector and was struggling to come back to the group of the favorites. George Hincapie and Nick Nuyens (Lotto) both waited for him but the pace in the group was not slowing down. With 42 kilometers to go the break still had 1' 50'' over a group of favorites where Alessandro Ballan (BMC) was working in favor of his teammate Tom Boonen (BMC). Meanwhile, Leukemans and Nuyens were losing 2' 55'' with the leaders.
Bjorn Leukemans had come back to the group when Lloyd Mondory attacked with 25 kilometers to go. Gregory Rast (Orica) and Johan Vansummeren (HTC) both tried to follow the attack of the French but were not able to do it. As they were heading towards the last few cobbled sectors, including the Carrefour de L'Arbre, Mondory had 25 seconds over a group of 15 riders. Vansummeren was the first to start the chase as it was very important not to let him go too far. Among those left behind and out of the equation for today's race were riders like Jurgen Roelandts (Sky), Maarten Tjallingii and Nick Nuyens.
The Carrefour de L'Arbre was the last 5-star sector in the race and it was used to full effect by Johan Vansummeren to close down the gap to Lloyd Mondory. The Belgian had initially joined forces with Bjorn Leukemans but the 3 time winner in Roubaix could not follow Vansummeren, who was outstanding in his chasing of the local favorite. As they turned to the tarmac again to head towards Roubaix, Mondory noticed that he was really close. With 16 kilometers to go they had 50 seconds on Leukemans and 1' 05'' on Fabian Cancellara (Cannondale), who had also tried to catch Mondory. The rest of the favorites were 1' 55'' behind.
Johan Vansummeren and Lloyd Mondory had to work together if they wanted to keep the rest of the riders behind and fight for the win at the Velodrome. However, the HTC rider knew that his odds would be very low if they got to the final sprint together and tried to leave Mondory behind at the penultimate sector, Hem. However, he was not as fresh after the exhibition at the Carrefour de L'Arbre and could not leave him behind. Meanwhile, Fabian Cancellara had caught up to Bjorn Leukemans and they were chasing 1' 10'' behind. Gregory Rast was also a few seconds ahead of the chasing group.
Fabian Cancellara had done all he could to fight for the final place in the podium with Bjorn Leukemans but the Lotto rider left him behind again at the Hem sector and by the time they were about to enter the Velodrome in Roubaix he had a 20 seconds gap to regain. It would be very difficult for the Swiss to climb onto the podium of the race. A bit further down the road Lloyd Mondory and Johan Vansummeren were already preparing themselves for the sprint. The French was the clear favorite but one can never be sure about a sprint after such a difficult race.
Johan Vansummeren was the first to start the final sprint and it took a while for Lloyd Mondory to react as the Belgian had hidden behind his wheel during the last lap at the Velodrome. The French was going to have to react quickly if he wanted to win the Paris - Roubaix. Meanwhile, Bjorn Leukemans was set to take the 3rd position in the podium as he was 1' 25'' behind and Fabian Cancellara could not catch him in the distance they had to the finish line. Gregory Rast was still marginally ahead of the first chasing group.
Johan Vansummeren wins in Roubaix! The Belgian takes the win in the final sprint against Lloyd Mondory in what is a massive surprise given that the French is an accomplished sprinter. It looks like Mondory gave it all in that attack before the Carrefour de L'Arbre. He had no response against Vansummeren's sprint and for the 4th time in a row he comes 2nd in a cobbled monument. This must be quite frustrating for him. Meanwhile, it is the first win in Roubaix for Vansummeren, who takes his tally to 4 monuments. Nevertheless, he is still 2 behind Bjorn Leukemans.
The third place in the podium went to Bjorn Leukemans, who was clearly not the dominating rider he had been last week in the Ronde van Vlaanderen. He had enough fending off the attempts from Fabian Cancellara to get in the podium. The Cannondale rider took the 4th place in what is a good performance. However, he still knows that he needs that little step forward to fight for a race like Paris - Roubaix. The 5th position was for Gregory Rast, who was about to be caught by the chasing group when he crossed the finish line but managed to hold off Bernhard Eisel and grab the 5th place.
The cobbles are over but the season of spring classics is not as the Amstel Gold Race will start the week of the Ardennes. The Dutch race takes place in the surroundings of Maastricht and the riders will have to face the many small hills in the areas. More than 30 climbs are typically included in the route, including the Bemelerberg, the Kruisberg or the Eyserboswegberg. However, the iconic climb in the race is the Cauberg, which is climbed 3 times and will decide the outcome of the race as the last of those is only 1.5 kilometers from the finish line. The fact that the Cauberg is demanding but there is a flat section afterwards makes the race very open. Good sprinting skills are required along the ability to go through the hills.
The race is so unpredictable that we have not seen any rider win twice so far and the winners are typically not among the top favorites. Joost van Leijen took the win last year riding for the weakest team in the World Tour and Simon Gerrans was not meant to be among the top favorites in 2014 even though he had been in the podium before. The race also allows for some of the stage racers to be in the mix. Frank Schleck and David Lopez have been in the podium lately. The route will be the same that was used last year so the riders know it by heart.
Favorites:
- Simone Ponzi (LottoNL - Jumbo): Ponzi was more of a sprinter during his years in Team Katusha but after changing teams during the winter he had to change targets because of the presence of Kenny van Hummel in the team. Among the hills classics he has won at Sanremo and also at Quebec in the past few years but he is going a step further in the difficulty of the hills he is tackling by targeting the Amstel Gold Race this season. The Italian has had a couple of decent results this season, like the 4th overall in the Tour Down Under but his team will be expecting a lot more from his side to justify his transfer.
- Jelle Vanendert (Lotto - Soudal): Vanendert was really good in last year's Ardennes. The Belgian took the win in the Fleche Wallonne and in the Liege - Bastogne - Liege but he is yet to win the Amstel Gold Race, where he has never been in the podium. However, this year has not been that good for him so far and he was a bit disappointing in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, even though he won the first stage. Also, he has Bjorn Leukemans in his team as well and, even though Leukemans has been more focused on the cobbles, he is still a factor to be considered in the Ardennes. It will be interesting how they manage to do it this year but in 2016 they were very successful.
- Philippe Gilbert (Vacansoleil - DMC): Gilbert changed teams at the start of the season and Vacansoleil needs him to have a good week in the Ardennes. The Dutch team has not had a very good start of the season so far and they are hopeful on the chances of the Belgian. He was in the podium of the last 2 Liege - Bastogne - Liege but he has not been able to make it in the Amstel Gold Race. However, as the race is more open than the other two classics this week it does not mean that he will not be able to take the win this season. It would be a good confidence for him in the season given that he does not have any good results in 2017 so far.
- Joost van Leijen (Team Giant - Alpecin): It is not that common for a Pro Continental Team rider to be among the handful of favorites in a race as important as the Amstel Gold Race. However, Van Leijen is a former World Champion and won this race last year. It was a very surprising win for the Dutch but he confirmed in the rest of the year that he was a very important rider even though he races for a very small team. The only reason why he is not among the best is probably that he lacks the consistency to be at the top places through the year. However, if you see only the wins in his career he would be a much better regarded rider.
Other riders with a shot at the podium are Mauro Finetto (Team Katusha), Bjorn Leukemans (Lotto - Soudal), Lloyd Mondory (Etixx - Quickstep), Emanuele Sella (Movistar Team), Tom Slagter (Cannondale - Drapac) and David Lopez (Euskaltel - Euskadi).
The riders will have quite a nice day in the Dutch Ardennes for the Amstel Gold Race. The race, although 256 kilometers long, is raced in quite a small piece of land in the surroundings of Maastricht. The riders will do a loop towards the north of the city before climbing the Cauberg for the first time. They will then do two more loops around the finish line. Both will be plagued with climbs for a total of 31 at the end of the race. The last loop is the shortest and it should be the key part of the race, including climbs like the Kruisberg, Eyserbosweg and the Keutenberg before the last climb to the Cauberg.
The first 40 kilometers of the race were quite hard as several teams in the peloton did not want to allow a big break to go away. In the end the break of the day only had 5 riders: Nelson Oliveira (Tinkoff), Stefano Garzelli (Movistar), Taylor Phinney (Discovery), Maxime Monfort (Etixx) and Fabio Felline (Lampre). With 130 kilometers to go they had a gap of 8' 15'' over the bunch. However, the peloton was not panicked at all and it was mostly Giant setting a pace in the group. The middle part of the stage was very quiet for the favorites even though the wind was blowing quite hard.
The section between the second passage through the Cauberg and the start of the toughest part of the race was a bit easier and the peloton was using it to reduce the gap to the break. It was Mikel Nieve (Katusha), Rob Ruijgh (Lotto) and Lars Boom (Giant) leading the group and they had cut the gap to 2' 40''. It was too small a gap for the front group to have a chance with 50 kilometers to go. Many teams were interested in chasing, which suggested that most of them thought they had a shot at the win. Diego Ulissi (Lampre) suffered a puncture at that point and that was going to hurt his chances.
Last year's winner, Joost van Leijen (Giant), decided that he had to attack with 40 kilometers to go and he was followed by David Lopez (Euskaltel). They were caught back but the Dutch attacked again and with 30 kilometers to go was at the front of the race already. The group of chasers was only 20 seconds behind. It looks like a suicidal attack by Van Leijen but he was making big names work at the main group as Bauke Mollema (Vacansoleil) had replaced Bjorn Leukemans (Lotto) at the front of the peloton. Philippe Gilbert (Vacansoleil) was really close to the front of the peloton.
The race was starting to break down as the riders tackled the three consecutive climbs ahead of the Keutenberg. The fact that Joost van Leijen had not been caught yet meant that important riders like Simone Ponzi (LottoNL), Bjorn Leukemans and Philippe Gilbert were leading the group of the favorites with 20 kilometers to go. Only 25 riders had managed to keep up with that group and they were 30 seconds behind Van Leijen. Another group including Davide Rebellin (Astana) and Mikel Nieve (Katusha) had been dropped and was 1' 35'' behind the leader. The race had been tougher than in previous seasons thus far.
The Keutenberg was the penultimate climb of the day and its top was 12 kilometers from the finish line. Joost van Leijen was finally reeled back but by a very small group. At the top of the climb he was joined by Tom Slagter (Cannondale), Jelle Vanendert (Lotto), Simone Ponzi, Mauro Finetto (Katusha) and David Lopez. They had 25 seconds over a group of 19 riders where we could find the likes of Philippe Gilbert, Rui Costa (Ag2r) and Frank Schleck (Etixx). They had a short flat section of around 5 kilometers before starting the descent towards the bottom of the Cauberg.
David Lopez tried to jump from the front group in the flat section before the Cauberg but could not open a gap. On the other hand, Philippe Gilbert worked at the chasing group and managed to bring the leading 18 riders together as they started the descent towards Valkenburg. There was no team with more than 2 riders in the group so no one could really control the pace. This could mean that an attack from an outsider could be successful. Among those riders that did not make it to the front group we found Bjorn Leukemans and Laurens Ten Dam (Cannondale).
Philippe Gilbert had worked hard to bring his group back to the front and still had energy to be the first to attack in the Cauberg, only 2 kilometers from the finish line. The Belgian was followed by Tom Slagter, Jelle Vanendert and Joost van Leijen. However, other riders like Mauro Finetto and Simone Ponzi were looking at each other. There were many riders suffering to follow the attack from Gilbert and the first to drop from the group was Maarten Tjallingii (Etixx). There was a bit more than 1 kilometer from the top of the climb to the finish line so anyone that did not follow would have a hard time recovering.
Jelle Vanendert was leading the group of 3 that made it to the top of the Cauberg at the front with about 800 meters to go. Only he and Tom Slagter managed to stay with Philippe Gilbert after the very tough attack from the Vacansoleil rider. Slagter was a good surprise as he was not among the top favorites. However, it looked like Vanendert was in better shape for the final sprint and soon took the lead. They had a small gap of 15 seconds over Joost van Leijen, Mauro Finetto and Simone Ponzi but the gap was much too large to cut it in the last meters of the stage.
Philippe Gilbert wins in Valkenburg! The Belgian managed to get past Jelle Vanendert in the final sprint and took the best win of his career so far. It is the first time that Gilbert wins a classic after being 5 times in the podium, 2 of them in the Liege - Bastogne - Liege. It will also be a good relief for Vacansoleil, given that the team had had a very poor start of the season and needed to get a good result soon. The second place in the podium went to Tom Slagter, who narrowly beat Vanendert at the finish line. It is a very solid result for the 25-year-old, who is trying to make his way in the World Tour.
The chasing 3 riders lost 20 seconds at the finish line. Joost van Leijen, last year's winner, took the 4th place with Mauro Finetto 5th and Simone Ponzi 6th. Van Leijen was the trigger for a race that was much more interesting than in previous editions as there was a battle between him and the group for almost 30 kilometers until he was caught at the top of the Keutenberg. Nevertheless, the race was decided again in the Cauberg but the group that made it there was quite a bit smaller. All in all, it was a quite entertaining day of racing.
The Fleche Wallonne is the second race in the trio of the Ardennes. It is raced on the Wednesday between the Amstel Gold Race and the Liege - Bastogne - Liege and has more or less the same set of riders that the other classics do. However, its characteristics are quite different to the other two races as the race is very much conditioned by the very tough finish at the top of the Chemin de Chapelles, in Huy. Unlike the other classics most of the riders in the peloton are expected to get to the final climb at the group, which will disintegrate in the very tough gradients of that uphill finish.
Dries Devenyns is the most successful rider in the race with a win and 2 other podiums, including last year. Bjorn Leukemans has also been in the podium 3 times but has never been able to take the win at the top of the Mur de Huy. However, the main favorite is last year's winner, Jelle Vanendert. Lotto has a very strong team and if Vanendert is having a bad day they can always play Bjorn Leukemans' card. The race is a big target for the local riders and Belgians have always been on the podium. Last year they locked down the podium with Vanendert, Leukemans and Devenyns.
Favorites:
- Jelle Vanendert (Lotto - Soudal): Jelle Vanendert managed to get on the podium of the Amstel Gold Race on the weekend and he will be targeting at least something similar in the Fleche Wallonne. He won last year by being by far the strongest in the final climb to the Mur de Huy. The final climb is so hard that makes the surprises much less likely than in the Amstel. However, his Vanendert is still looking for a big win this year as he has been quite erratic in his performances during the current season. As usual, Lotto also has Bjorn Leukemans to play for the win and they already made the double last year.
- Simone Ponzi (LottoNL - Jumbo): Simone Ponzi lost the option to take the win in the race of the Ardennes that better suits him on Sunday. However, he was not far from the best and took the 6th place in the race. It is obviously not as hard but he already got the win in the GP Cycliste de Quebec in 2015 in a final climb that is similar to Huy. However, it would be interesting to see how well he can cope with the extreme gradients of the final kilometer of the Fleche Wallonne.
- Joost van Leijen (Team Giant - Alpecin): Van Leijen could not repeat his win in the Amstel Gold Race as he did in 2016. Nevertheless, he took a solid 4th place and was the rider that made the race much tougher with his attack 40 kilometers from the finish line. The Fleche Wallonne will be a bit trickier for him as it will go down to the final climb and he seems to have a better liking for hilly stages that do not end up in an uphill finish. He also recovered the first position in the Pro Continental rankings in over the weekend.
- Mauro Finetto (Team Katusha): Mauro Finetto has been one of the sensations of the start of 2017. The young Italian is only 23 years old, the same age as his teammate Tanel Kangert, and has had quite good performances early in the season. Both he and Kangert make Katusha one of the most exciting teams in the World Tour. He took the 5th place in the Amstel Gold Race and had won the best young rider at the Tour Down Under and the Paris - Nice. It is not known how well he will tackle the uphill finish in Huy but his performances so far hint that he could be quite good.
Other riders with a shot at the podium are Philippe Gilbert (Vacansoleil - DMC), Davide Rebellin (Astana Pro Team), Emanuele Sella (Movistar Team), Bjorn Leukemans (Lotto - Soudal), Lloyd Mondory (Etixx - Quickstep) and David Lopez (Euskaltel - Euskadi).
The route of the Fleche Wallonne is clearly the easiest of the 3 races in the week of the Ardennes, both in terms of climbing and in terms of kilometers. Most of the race before the last 50 kilometers of racing is fairly flat and only the first passage through the Mur the Huy puts the riders in problems. However, the last 50 kilometers are much more interesting with another climb to Huy before the climbs of the Cote d'Amay and the Cote de Villers-le-Bouillet. Nevertheless, the final climb is so hard that the race will be most likely won and lost in its slopes.
Getting into the break was a hopeless affair in the Fleche Wallonne and only Thomas Voeckler (Dimension Data) and Gianni Meersman (Orica) were ahead with 105 kilometers to go. They had a gap of 4' 45'' over the bunch which was clearly not enough for them to have an option for the win. The peloton was taking things easy and they had no reason to panic so the first half of the race had been very comfortable for the favorites. There were also strong winds but no team seemed keen to make the race tougher even though some of the favorites are not especially good in the flat.
Matthew Goss (Movistar), Grega Bole (Astana) and Przemyslaw Niemiec (Lotto) were leading the bunch with 50 kilometers to go. The gap to the break had reduced a bit to 3' 25'' but no team was yet trying to push the pace. It seemed to be coming down just because some teams in the peloton were starting to position themselves ahead of the climbs. The race had been really easy for most of the riders in the peloton so far. It remains to be seen whether anyone will try to increase the pace or even attack in the second passage through the Mur de Huy.
Bjorn Leukemans (Lotto) was leading the group as they crossed the finish line for a second time. The Lotto rider had picked up the pace considerably in the climb and riders had started to drop out of the back of the group. Lotto was clearly interested in trying to make the race a bit harder to clear the way for Jelle Vanendert (Lotto) ahead of the last climb. Sergey Chernetskiy (Vacansoleil) and Rafal Majka (Lotto) were following Leukemans at the front of the pack. The gap to the break had decreased a bit more and was less than 2 minutes.
The descent of the Mur de Huy towards the Cote d'Amay was rather fast and the early break was finally caught halfway through the climb. The push to catch them came from Tim Wellens (Etixx), who was the first outsider to attack. He was quickly followed by Emanuele Sella (Movistar). They opened a small gap at the top of the climb ahead of Francesco Gavazzi (Lampre) and Laurens Ten Dam (Cannondale), who were trying to join the front group. However, none of the top favorites jumped from the pack and they were letting Vacansoleil do the work of setting the pace for them.
The attack from Tim Wellens and Emanuele Sella did not go far but the penultimate climb of the day, the Cote de Villers-le-Bouillet, completely broke the race. Ag2r attacked with Rui Costa (Ag2r) first and then with Lars Peter Nordhaug (Ag2r). The Norwegian went through the top of the climb alone with a 10-second gap over a group of 4: Tom Slagter (Cannondale), Emanuele Sella, Jelle Vanendert and Davide Rebellin (Astana). Rui Costa and Simone Ponzi (LottoNL) were 35 seconds behind the leader while David Lopez (Euskaltel) and Philippe Gilbert were also trying to bridge the gap.
A group of only 13 riders managed to get to the base of the Mur de Huy with a big enough gap over the peloton. Most of the favorites were there so few teams had an incentive to chase behind. Among those missing we could find Mauro Finetto (Katusha), Dries Devenyns (Euskaltel) and Mikel Nieve (Katusha). Once in the climb Jelle Vanendert had no time to lose and attacked straight away. Simone Ponzi was quick to grab his wheel and he was followed by Emanuele Sella. Both Vanendert and Sella know what it is to win at the top. In the front group, only Lotto and Ag2r had 2 riders and could play more aggressively.
Jelle Vanendert's initial attack was neutralised by Simon Ponzi but the Belgian kept pushing and with less than 800 meters to go only Emanuele Sella and Davide Rebellin stayed on his wheel. Simon Ponzi had to give up in trying to follow Vanendert and was 25 seconds behind alongside Tom Slagter, Joost van Leijen (Giant) and Philippe Gilbert. They seemed too far to battle for the win and the podium looked to be occupied by the 3 riders at the front of the race. It was surprising to see Bjorn Leukemans not in the mix for the win after Lotto did the double last year.
Jelle Vanendert wins in Huy! The Belgian took his second win in a row in the Fleche Wallonne, again in a dominant fashion but not as much as last year. Vanendert crossed the finish line having left behind the riders that had managed to stay with him. He had not had a good season before the week of the Ardennes but he is quickly making up for it. The second place went to Emanuele Sella, another former winner of the race, who crossed the finish line ahead of Davide Rebellin. Both will join Vanendert in the final podium. They crossed the finish line 11 seconds behind.
The next group was led by Tom Slagter and Joost van Leijen, while Philippe Gilbert could only be 6th after winning the Amstel Gold Race on the weekend. In the end the race was not completely decided in the Mur de Huy as the attack in the penultimate hill by Ag2r meant that only 13 riders made it to the bottom of the last climb with a shot at the win. It is a good change in the race as normally the race is completely blocked. The Liege - Bastogne - Liege in the weekend should be a different matter as the race is much harder overall but the favorite will probably be Jelle Vanendert again.
