I don't think Ponzi was too dominant, in the end in real life the stages were won by Michael Matthews and Fabio Felline (with Matthews 2nd) so pretty realistic in this case. In GC terms both the 4th stage and the time trial should kill Ponzi's options.
The third stage in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco is a continuous up and down the hills, maybe more like mountains in the first part of the stage. The stage has as many as 8 categorized climbs so the riders that make it in the break of the day will have a good chance of making progress in the KoM classification. The highlight of the day is the Alto de la Antigua, a 2.5 kilometers climb averaging almost 10% gradient and with a last kilometers close to 15%. Its top is only 3 kilometers from the finish line in Zumarraga.
The Alto de Iturrieta was the second climb of the day but the break of the day had already taken shape. It was a group of 5 riders: Tony Martin (Lotto), Simon Spilak (Tinkoff), Martin Elmiger (Orica), Nicolas Roche (Cannondale) and Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana). The climb had 5 tough kilometers but the actual KoM sprint was placed a further 5 kilometers at the highest point of the plateau at the top. With 132 kilometers to go they had a gap of 1' 15''. The start of the stage had been very fast with many riders trying to join the break and teams like Katusha, Euskaltel and Vacansoleil controlling the pace.
Julien Simon attacked in the descent of the Alto de Iturrieta and the peloton did not chase him back so he was on a mission to join the break when they reached the Alto de Urbasa. He still had to do quite an effort to join them as the gap was 1' 40'' halfway through the climb, while the main bunch was 4' 15'' behind the leaders. At the top of the climb it was Simon Spilak who took the maximum points. He had done the same in the Iturrieta so he already was the provisional leader of the mountains' classification.
The middle part of the stage was a bit easier but the descent towards Beasain was interrupted by the small but steep climb to the Alto de Urkillaga. Its top was 63 kilometers from the finish line in Zumarraga. BMC and Discovery Channel had started to reduce the gap of the break, which was 4' 50'' at this stage, with riders like Kanstantsin Siutsou, Marco Marcato and Alberto Contador leading the chase. Simon Spilak did not seem to be that fresh anymore to collect KoM points in the break. Another rider that was trying to bridge the gap was Igor Anton, who attacked in Urbasa and was a bit more than 1 minute behind the break.
Julien Simon managed to get into the break but he did not last long there and the effort that he had made cost him dearly as he was about to be caught by the main bunch at the top of the first passage through the climb to La Antigua. Euskaltel had placed Greg van Avermaet, Fran Ventoso and Danilo di Luca at the front of the pack and the gap was coming down steadily. Only 65 riders made it through this first climb at the group of the leader. Meanwhile, the break had been completely broken as Simon Spilak attacked in the climb and only Tony Martin was chasing him.
The pace in the group of the favorites increased considerably after the climb to La Antigua and Frank Schleck, Simon Gerrans and Juanjo Cobo formed a group at the gentle climb to the Alto de Atagoiti, the penultimate categorized climb today. However, Euskaltel was still maintaining everything in order and they were reeled back in at the top. Mikel Nieve attacked as soon as they were caught. Simon Spilak still had a gap of 45 seconds on Tony Martin and 1' 30'' over the group of favorites. Two riders had been surprisingly dropped: Bauke Mollema and Tiago Machado. The Portuguese had had a bad fall yesterday but there are no reasons for Mollema's bad day.
The group of the favorites broke into 2 in the uncategorized second climb to the Alto de Gabiria and with 7 kilometers to go, about to start the second climb to the Alto de La Antigua, a group of 5 important riders was chasing Simon Spilak. The Slovenian had 20 seconds on Rui Costa, Jelle Vanendert, Simone Ponzi, Mikel Nieve and Philippe Gilbert. Euskaltel was still chasing but David Lopez was not too close to the front of the group, never a good sign for a rider that should protect his chances today. They were 40 seconds behind Spilak.
The climb to La Antigua was short but very explosive. It has ramps of as much as 19% gradient close to the top of the hill. There were several attacks from David Lopez's group, especially from Xavi Tondo, who managed to make contact with the front group. At the steepest slopes he joined Mikel Nieve and Rui Costa leaving the leader and Simon Spilak among others behind. As they got to the top, Mikel Nieve was starting to open a small gap on Rui Costa. They had 40 seconds over Dries Devenyns and Cadel Evans, while the main group was 55 seconds behind. Michael Matthews and Simone Ponzi were leading the group but Euskaltel had worked for nothing as David Lopez was nowhere to be seen.
Mikel Nieve reached the finish straight with a gap of 12 seconds over Rui Costa. The Spaniard had tiny gap at the top of the climb but managed to make it a bit bigger in the steep descent towards the line and should not lose the stage win. Only 17 riders were chasing in the group of the leader. David Lopez finally appeared at the front of the group close to the top of La Antigua. He seemed to be more worried about damage limitation in the steep slopes that about attacking. Among those dropped were Greg van Avermaet, Frank Schleck and Philippe Gilbert.
Mikel Nieve wins in Zumarraga! The Spaniard managed to take a stage win very close to his hometown and not only that but he also grabs the lead in the race. Rui Costa was a close second but the gap to the group of the leader was as big as 30 seconds, which puts both of them leading the GC. This is the first win from Nieve since he won the stage finishing at the top of the L'Angliru at the Vuelta 2013. Xavi Tondo, who had been dropped by the leading duo, was caught right on the line but still got 3rd ahead of Simone Ponzi and Jelle Vanendert.
It was a very interesting stage but it seems that a few of the favorites were saving energy for tomorrow's finish in Arrate. Bauke Mollema was totally out of play today and lost more than 4 minutes in the finish line so his chances of a decent result are over. Wout Poels will have to try to save the day for Vacansoleil but it looks unlikely. There are almost 40 riders still with a chance on the GC but tomorrow it might be a different story in a longer final climb.
The queen stage of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco is typically the one that has its finish at the top of the Santuario de Arrate, close to Eibar. The stage is plagued with climb, especially after the climb to Ixua, which shares almost the whole route with the climb to Arrate. Ixua is 64 kilometers from the finish line and the riders will still have to tackle another 4 climbs afterwards. Today is also the day more suitable for the pure climbers, so expect a few of the riders on the top 10 to lose that spot.
The Alto de Asentzio was the first climb of the day. A group of 8 riders had already formed at the front of the race, including Peter Sagan (Trek), Samuel Sanchez (Movistar), Francesco Gavazzi (Cannondale), Luca Paolini (Astana) and Anthony Roux (IAM). Discovery was initially not very keen on this break to make progress but they did not want to kill their domestiques so early in the stage. Gavazzi was only 35 seconds behind in the GC, so their chances of making it to the finish line were not that big. Samuel Sanchez was the first at the top of the climb.
Discovery was already leading the peloton with a bit more serious pace at the climb to the Alto de Karabieta. Luis Leon Sanchez, Ruben Plaza and Peter Velits were leading the pack but they would not be helping Mikel Nieve that much today in the final part of the stage. The Spaniard is clearly missing a more solid team. Lotto seemed ready to help with the chase as Tony Martin and Rafal Majka were close to the front. Meanwhile, the break had built a gap of 6 minutes. Anthony Roux took the KoM points at the top.
Peter Sagan led the break though the top of the climb to Ixua ahead of Samuel Sanchez. The Spaniard was the best climber in the break. Their gap had come down to 3' 45'' with still 64 kilometers remaining. None of them fought the mountain's points but Simon Spilak jumped from the bunch to consolidate his lead. Discovery was still setting the pace and the peloton had already broken in two parts at the top of the climb due to the high gradients on the climb. Some of the surprising faces in the back group were Tiago Machado, Tony Gallopin and specially Chris Froome.
The attacks from important riders started at the Alto de Santa Eufemia, which top was 32 kilometers from the finish line in Arrate. Janez Brajkovic attacked to serve as bridge for Frank Schleck, who was ahead of the group of the leader at the top. Bjorn Leukemans and Dries Devenyns tried to follow but did not manage. However, his gap was only 30 seconds at the top over a group with more than 40 riders. Among those left behind were Miguel Rubiano and Bauke Mollema, losing already 2 minutes. Chris Froome was even further back, 3 minutes behind the group of favorites. It was a big error by the British, who seemed to have good legs.
Frank Schleck was reeled in at the start of the climb to the Alto de San Miguel. There were many attacks in this climb but none was successful. The attacking riders included Wout Poels, Bjorn Leukemans and Andrew Talansky. Rein Taaramae reached the top of the climb with a few meters over the group led by Fran Ventoso. The Spaniard was doing a great job to deliver Hubert Dupont and David Lopez to the final climb. Taaramae was about to catch the break at the top of the climb. On the back, Chris Froome was now on the same group that Bauke Mollema and Miguel Rubiano were in.
Nairo Quintana was in the early break and was the rider that held on longer at the front of the race. He started the climb to Arrate with a small 10 seconds gap over Rigoberto Uran and 25 seconds on Peter Sagan and Anthony Roux. Nevertheless, the favorites were approaching really fast from behind and the stage win was in the main group. Rein Taaramae, Andrew Talansky and Michele Scarponi were marginally ahead of the group of the leader, led by Jelle Vanendert, at the bottom. They had 6 kilometers to go but only 5 were uphill.
Xavi Tondo had formed a group with Rein Taaramae, Hubert Dupont and Dries Devenyns but left those riders behind to go solo with 4 kilometers remaining. Lampre might be a Pro Continental team this year but they still have the potential to be among the best in a few races throughout the season. Rui Costa was leading the chase to protect his 2nd provisional place in the GC while Mikel Nieve was letting other work. The Spaniard had been without teammates for a long while but was strong enough not to be left behind.
Euskaltel had been working all the week for the attack from David Lopez in the climb to Arrate to happen. The Spaniard waited considerably and attacked with only 3 kilometers to go. He was strong enough to catch Xavi Tondo and leave him behind straight away. At the 2 kilometers mark he had 10 seconds on Xavi Tondo and 25 on the group of the leader. Mikel Nieve was pushing at the front of the group and that gap was actually not enough for Lopez to take over the lead of the race. Jelle Vanendert and Dries Devenyns were also quite strong and following Mikel Nieve closely.
Mikel Nieve's pace was too strong for the rest of the group and he chased alone at the top of the climb. With only 1 kilometer's descent towards the finish line the win was almost assured for David Lopez, who was 12 seconds ahead of Xavi Tondo, had 27 seconds on Nieve and 40 on a group of 11 chasers. The gaps were not too big but with the GC very tight any seconds could tilt the yellow jersey one way or the other. The victory in Arrate was very much sought by Euskaltel, as it is the queen stage of their home race.
David Lopez wins in Arrate! This is the second time that the Spaniard takes the win at the top of the Basque climb, the first one being in 2013. Lopez left his attack for quite late in the climb but it was impossible for anyone to follow his pace. He put 16 seconds on Xavi Tondo at the finish line. Tondo was a fantastic 2nd, a great performance for a Lampre team that needs results to be a World Tour team next year again. Mikel Nieve was third, 30 seconds behind. This means that Lopez takes the yellow jersey with a margin of only 2 seconds.
The sprint of the chasing group was won by Dries Devenyns, followed by Hubert Dupont and Juanjo Cobo. This stage has clarified the GC a lot more and it is now clear that only a handful of riders will fight for the overall win. Rui Costa is among Spanish riders but should not be discarded because he can be very good in time trials, probably better than all his rivals for the overall win. Nevertheless, tomorrow's stage will be a good test and fits very well to the puncheurs, which might clarify the gaps a bit more.
I am rallying behind the idea of a Basque winner for a Basque team at a Basque race... Of course it's the racing, not fairytales, that will determine the winner. And there is still much racing to be had...
I think Lopez did a huge step forward towards winning the GC. He should do well in the TT and that gives him a big advantage. I can only see Costa being better than him.
The penultimate stage in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco will see the riders go north towards the little town of Aia. They will have to tackle a handful of climbs, including the Alto de Urraki, an 8.5 kilometers long. The final part of the stage will include 3 climbs to Aia, two of them through a wall with ramps up to 24% in gradient. The favorites for the day will probably be the most punchy riders, although they will have to go through longer climbs earlier in the day.
There had been 2 other climbs before the break was completely settled at the front of the race in the Alto de Garate. The group of 4 riders was formed by Carlos Barredo (Orica), Samuel Sanchez (Movistar), Pavel Brutt (Katusha) and Tom Slagter (Cannondale). With 105 kilometers to go they had built a gap of 3' 45'' but the presence of Brutt in the group would make it difficult for them to go to the end given that he was only 3 minutes behind in the GC. Euskaltel had been controlling the pace in the first couple of climbs with Joaquin Rodriguez not to allow the break to grow too big.
Alexandre Vinokourov attacked from the pack at the descent of the Alto de Garate and bridged the gap to the break. The Kazakh collected lots of KoM points in the climbs to the Alto de Urraki and the Alto de Alkiza, which put him in the provisional 1st place in the mountains' classification. On the other side for Astana, Davide Rebellin crashed shortly after Vinokourov's attack and had to retire from the race. The bunch started to chase at the Alto de Alkiza and the gap at that point was 3' 45'' as Lotto, BMC and Lampre all joined to bring Pavel Brutt closer.
The attacks from the bunch started rather early and Michal Kwiatkowski, who was 2' 30'' behind in the GC, was the first to go. He did it with 47 kilometers to go, at the climb to the Alto de Andazarrate. The Polish had a bit of margin from the main riders and the peloton let him go. Another more important rider, Joost van Leijen, also attacked. The gaps at the top had opened considerably and Kwiatkowski had 1' 35'' over the main bunch already. Van Leijen's margin was not that big, only 30 seconds ahead of the peloton. The Dutch was not going to be allowed to go that far.
The race had completely changed by the time the riders reached the first climb to the Alto de Aia. This was the side that would be climbed again last in the stage. Other outsiders attacked from the peloton and caught up with Michal Kwiatkowski, who was left behind at the start of the climb. They were Chris Froome, Andrew Talansky, Janez Brajkovic and Joost van Leijen. They were not too far behind of the break, which broke into pieces, and 1' 25'' ahead of the group of the favorites. Jelle Vanendert attacked from that group at the bottom of the climb and Xavi Tondo almost at the top, which triggered a reaction from David Lopez.
Euskaltel showed how strong a team they had in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and they put Greg van Avermaet, Hubert Dupont and Danilo di Luca to chase. With 8 kilometers to go there was only a group of 9 riders ahead, although the very dangerous Rui Costa had made it to that group by attacking in the descent. It was a very dangerous move for David Lopez as Costa was only a few seconds behind in the GC and a good time trialist as well. The gap was 40 seconds so the Portuguese was the virtual leader. Meanwhile, Frank Schleck made a mistake in the previous climb and was trying to recover. He was losing 1' 50'' against the lead of the race.
Jelle Vanendert was first through the second climb to Aia with a small gap of 10 seconds over a group of 4 riders including Cadel Evans, Dries Devenyns, David Lopez and Rein Taaramae. Lopez seemed to have everything under control today and he had even left Mikel Nieve behind, the main threat to his leader's jersey. Nieve's group, which was 24 riders strong, was losing 30 seconds at the top of the climb, only 4 kilometers to the finish line in Aia. Nevertheless, the riders still had another climb with gradients up to 24% which would probably reshuffle the order.
Jelle Vanendert started the last climb first but was quickly reeled back in by the chasers. David Lopez decided to attack close to the bottom of the climb and was 15 seconds ahead at the 1 kilometer mark. The chasers were led by Hubert Dupont, Vanendert, Mikel Nieve and Rinaldo Nocentini. Nieve was trying to make progress but his positioning ahead of the wall was a bit far from the front of his group. It was amazing how many Euskaltel riders had been able to make it to the last climb in the front group. It seemed like the whole team was there.
David Lopez wins in Aia! The Spaniard takes his second stage win in a row and basically settles the general classification of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco He got a gap of 41 seconds over the chasing group and the difference is enough to be impossible to recover in tomorrow's time trial. Euskaltel have completely dominated the race and they will take a deserved win. Th chasing group was led across the line by Jelle Vanendert, 41 seconds behind. He was followed by Hubert Dupont, Mikel Nieve and Danilo di Luca.
Vanendert made progress to the third position in the GC as Xavi Tondo lost 1' 11'' to the winner and Rui Costa crossed the finish line 1' 30'' behind. It was surprising that the Portuguese lost so much time today but probably he is not that keen in the gradients climbed today. Hubert Dupont also climbed to the 4th position overall, making it 2 Euskaltel riders in the top 4. There will be a few positions to be fought tomorrow but the top 2 in the GC seems settled with such a short time trial.
It is already a tradition that the last stage of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco is a time trial. The route is normally very hilly and this year it is not different. If anything, it will be even more suitable for the climbers as the route is exactly the same as the last 20 kilometers of yesterday's stage. The two climb to Aia will be tackled in the last 8 kilometers of the stage, including the 24% gradient section. Therefore, it would be surprising if someone like Cameron Meyer took the win today.
The first rider to start the stage that had a chance of a good result in the time trial was Bauke Mollema (Vacansoleil). The Dutch rider had a terrible week and found himself 10 minutes down in the GC before today's time trial. However, his best performance of the week was yesterday and that gave him hopes for today. Mollema was the best in the second intermediate check, only 4 kilometers from the finish line. However, he could only be 2nd at the finish line, 2 seconds behind Jurgen van den Broeck.
Chris Froome (Sky) only had a nightmare day on Thursday, when the race finished in Arrate. That day he lost all his chances of a good final position in the GC. However, his legs did not seem that bad and today he ratified that sensation by setting the best provisional time, 17 seconds better than the time set by Jurgen van den Broeck. However, the British was not going to have any chances of making it even in the top 15 for the race. It was a shame but we might see him with a better chance of a good result in Romandie.
HTC chose Juanjo Cobo as the leader of the team but Andrew Talansky was also making and effort to get a good GC result. The American could not beat Froome's best time and had to be satisfied with the 3rd provisional time, 18 seconds behind the British. Talansky would go on to finish 19th overall, only 2 seconds ahead of Froome in the GC. Nevertheless, he is only starting to build his fitness levels towards the Tour de Romandie and the Giro d'Italia later in the season.
The other HTC rider going for the GC was Juanjo Cobo. However, the Spaniard had been a bit underwhelming this week and found himself 13th in the GC before today's time trial. Nevertheless, his time trial was quite strong and he took the 2nd best provisional time when he crossed the finish line, 14 seconds behind Chris Froome. That would subsequently promote him to the final 11th place in the GC, only 2 seconds shy of the 10th place, which was held by Cameron Meyer at the end of the day.
The most interesting fight today was the one for the 3rd place in the podium. Cadel Evans (Movistar) was 6th at the start of the day but only 3 seconds away from the final podium place. At that time Jerome Coppel had taken the best time from Chris Froome but Evans was not very close to them and clocked the 5th best time, 20 seconds slower than the French. Nevertheless, considering his rivals for the podium that could be enough for Movistar to meet their targets for the race.
Xavi Tondo (Lampre) is also among the riders that are in the mix for the podium even if he is riding for a Pro Continental team this season. However, Lampre is not the typical Pro Conti team and their chances of coming back to the elite of cycling for 2017 are quite high. Tondo's time trial was really good and he managed to set the 3rd provisional time only 5 seconds behind Coppel. That put the Spaniard with a real chance of getting the podium as he clearly improved on Evans' time.
Hubert Dupont (Euskaltel) was the third rider with a shot at the final podium. That would make it 2 Euskaltel riders there and would show the dominance of the local team in the race. However, even though his time trial was quite good his 6th provisional position, 18 seconds behind Coppel meant that he lost a place to Xavi Tondo and the chance of a podium. Even though he retained his place ahead of Cadel Evans that will not be enough. A top 5 place will not mean much for the French, given his winning record in the past but he is on the right track to be a contender in the Giro.
Jelle Vanendert (Lotto) is not the best rider when it comes to a time trial but with so many hills in the route he had a chance of doing something good today. However, it was not meant to be and the Belgian could only take the 14th provisional time, 34 seconds behind Jerome Coppel. That was not enough to keep the podium and not only that, he dropped to the 6th final position in the GC. Vanendert might not be getting as good a start of the season as last year but he is still getting results consistently and will be a good contender in the Ardennes.
Mikel Nieve (Discovery) did not have any threat to his 2nd position overall and it would be impossible for him to get to the front so his day was rather quiet. The Spaniard took the 13th position, 27 seconds behind. This 2nd position will be very important for the Discovery Channel team. The American team was among the best teams but has suffered both in sporting and financial terms recently. We have to go back to the Vuelta 2014 (when he was 4th overall) to see a performance this good from Nieve.
David Lopez (Euskaltel) was the last rider on the road. The Spaniard was already sure of his win in the General Classification but he was keen to take his 3rd stage win in a row and, not surprisingly, he was the fastest man on the road today. He clocked a time that was 6 seconds faster than that set by Jerome Coppel to finish a super week for him. Lopez has clearly been the best rider of the week and the Euskaltel sponsors will be more than happy with the show in front of their people.
The Vuelta al Pais Vasco was a very interesting race but in the end it was too easy for Euskaltel, who won the race with Lopez and was 4th with Hubert Dupont. Not only that, they put another 3 riders in the top 20. That shows how committed they were to make a good impression in the race. The only question mark on the outstanding performance is the level of the competition that was present in Spain. Many better riders will take part in the Grand Tours later in the year.
Still early days for the GC.
and what a great stage for the Spanish 
