It is a relatively bumpy route in the World Championship but the hill in the final circuit is nothing particularly special. With 3.5 kilometers averaging 3.5% there will be many sprinters that will not have trouble getting over it and fighting for a mass sprint. That is if the group manages to control the many attacks that will surely happen in the last couple of laps. In terms of the weather, the riders have been quite lucky. It was a nice and sunny day in Bergen with not too much wind. Considering that this is a very rainy area it is quite fortunate for them.
The main teams were not too worried about controlling the early break and the group was formed by 7 riders. We could find quite strong riders that are not very well suited to the route, including Tiago Machado (Portugal), Cadel Evans (Australia), Peter Velits (Slovakia), Darwin Atapuma (Colombia) and Brent Bookwalter (USA). With 148 kilometers to go they were already well inside the final circuit part of the race but they still held a lead of 8 minutes over the main bunch. Meanwhile, France was mainly setting the pace in the peloton with some help from Great Britain and Italy.
France and Germany took the lead in the main bunch with 3 laps to go and the pace increased considerably. They had put riders like Jean-Christophe Peraud (France), Jerome Coppel (France) and Tony Martin (Germany) to drive the group and the gap came down to 3 minutes with 47 kilometers to go. With that kind of time difference it would be very hard for the break to make it to the end. Nevertheless, even though the pace in the group increased a lot there were very few riders losing contact and more than 130 riders stayed in the main bunch. It was a proof that the circuit was not that difficult and the attacks would have to be very hard to open a gap.
Alessandro Ballan (Italy) was the first rider to attack in the penultimate lap but it was Ben Swift (Great Britain) who managed to open a gap. As they reached the climb for the penultimate time the British was clearly ahead and his deficit to the break had decreased to a meagre 40 seconds. The peloton was 1' 25'' from the leaders. Nick Nuyens (Belgium) had also tried to follow Swift's wheel but he had not had the legs to do it. The British was clearly in good shape but considering he would have a chance in the final sprint it did not look like the best idea to attack from so far out. Anthony Roux (France) and Tony Gallopin (France) were the riders setting the pace in the bunch.
Peter Velits jumped from the early break and crossed the finish line on his own for the last lap. He was the only rider surviving ahead of the peloton. He still had 1 minute of margin but it did not look enough for the 19 kilometers lap. Meanwhile, Jurgen Roelandts (Belgium) and Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland) tried to break away in the flat following the descent but even good rouleurs like them were not able to sustain the gap they created. Germany had come back to the front of the race and it should be worth noting that they had two options for the sprint: Marcel Kittel (Germany) and Andre Greipel (Germany).
Anthony Roux was the first rider at the top of the Mount Ulriken in the last climb. The French had done a good effort to lead the group through the climb and catch Peter Velits in the process. There were a lot of rider looking for a position close to the front of the group and Alexander Kristoff (Norway) was the third rider in the line, which showed how committed the local rider was. However, not all of the sprinters were as comfortable as Kristoff with the climb and some were struggling. There had also been a crash in the group earlier within the last lap but none of the favorites were affected by it.
Simone Ponzi (Italy) attacked in the descent of the Mount Ulriken and he was joined by Tony Gallopin in the flat section towards Bergen. With 5 kilometers to go, already in the outskirts of the city, they had a gap of 20 seconds over the group of chasers. The final climb had finally been hard enough that a selection had been made and the group was only around 80 riders strong. Thomas de Gendt (Belgium) was leading the chase, which was quite strange considering they do not have any sprinter that can fight for the win. Among the riders that would have expected to battle for the win, we could see that Francisco Ventoso (Spain) and Michael Matthews (Australia) had been dropped.
The previous attempt by Simone Ponzi and Tony Gallopin did not last long but it was not long before other riders were in the attacks. Fabian Cancellara, Francesco Gavazzi (Italy) and Johan Vansummeren (Belgium) were 20 seconds ahead with 2 kilometers to go but the peloton was already in full gas mode and cutting their gap. The final part of the race was quite chaotic, probably due to the tired legs. We could see Lloyd Mondory (France) working at the front of the peloton but other quick riders like Ponzi, Gallopin and Ben Swift were also really close to the front. Among those that were a bit further behind and would have to recover we could see Mark Renshaw (Australia) and Kenny van Hummel (Netherlands).
The last attempt did not work out either and with less than 1 kilometer to go Lloyd Mondory had already taken over the first position in the final sprint and looked ready to grab the gold medal. He had Simone Ponzi on his wheel but the Italian had probably wasted a lot of energy in his attempt in the descent. They had a very good gap over the rest of the sprinters, who were led by Andre Greipel, followed by Tyler Farrar (USA), Johan Vansummeren, Alexander Kristoff and Francesco Gavazzi. Kristoff was a bit slow to start the final sprint, even though he looked very close to the front in the last few kilometers.
Simone Ponzi wins in Bergen! The Italian had a lot more in his legs than Lloyd Mondory and took the win comfortably in the last meters of the stage. He even had time to celebrate as the chasers were too far behind and never looked like catching him. On the other hand, Mondory was completely out of energy and dropped to the 6th position in the end, that surely was a huge disappointment for him as he had had medals in the last 2 World Championships and was looking for the gold here. The 2nd place and silver medal went to the local Alexander Kristoff, while Kenny van Hummel took the bronze medal. The top 5 was completed by Mark Renshaw and Jose Joaquin Rojas (Spain).
It was a very chaotic sprint and knowing how to time the final rush was more important than the raw speed. Kristoff was probably the quickest in the sprint but the fact that he was slow to react to the movement by Mondory meant that he was too far behind when it counted. Mondory himself was too optimistic and probably got unsettled by the 3 riders that were still ahead with 2 kilometers to go. The most intelligent among them was Simone Ponzi, who did not have a very good season until today. He had not been strong enough sometimes and also had to work for Kenny van Hummel in other occasions. However, everything worked for him today and he will be wearing the rainbow jersey for a year.
We said before that Giant would be re-branded Sunweb from next season onwards. They are no the only team that changes names, as Lampre - Merida has sold their license to the team UAE Team Emirates. Their landmark signing for this season has been Marcel Kittel. The German has spent the last three years with Astana, where he had mixed results and 11 wins in total. However, his 2017 has not been as good as he would have hoped and he only took 1 win in the whole year. UAE will be hoping that he regains the form he had in his first years in Lampre so that he can be a reference for the team.
Team Sky had not made any moves in the market either. They lost Maxim Iglinskiy to Astana, which will have hurt the team as they had high hopes for the youngster. In replacement, they have brought in Mathias Frank. The Swiss should be a rider that guarantees much more consistency in terms of results and regularly steps in the podiums of stage races. Considering that they have Marco Pinotti in the team precisely for that reason, it puts a question mark as to whether the management lost confidence on the Italian being able to deliver.
The team that has moved quickest in the market before the end of the season has been Quickstep Floors. They have announced a couple of additional riders that have signed with the team. Enrico Gasparatto has renewed his contract with the team and will stay a further 3 years. In the new signings area, Johan Vansummeren will arrive from HTC. This is a very strange signing, given that they already have Lloyd Mondory in the team as a top cobbler. They will now have in the team 2 riders that were in the podium of both Paris - Roubaix and Ronde van Vlaanderen in 2017. It will be interesting to see how they play it out.
Lastly, Nicholas Roche has been presented as a new signing for Ag2r - La Mondiale. The Irish has been quite low profile in the last few seasons but managed to get a win in the Vuelta a España. IAM Cycling is also revamping the team considerably and they have taken onboard Julien Simon and Gregory Rast. They did not have any contender for the cobbled classics before, so Rast will give them a chance to shine in those.
The season is drawing to an end this year with the Giro di Lombardia, given that there will be no Tour of Beijing in 2017. The Italian race is also the last of the monuments and a race that many riders have among their targets for the season. It is also the main of the classics for the climbers, who normally do not have a chance in other classics along the season and have to focus in the stage races. The route is quite different this season to what we have seen so far. The continuity in the climbs is much better towards the end and the race features the climb to the Muro di Sormano, the last part of the climb to the Colma di Sormano.
Il Lombardia is typically a race where predicting the winner is difficult. Even though the race is very tough, the fitness level in this part of the season are hard to gauge. Therefore, there has been no rider to win the race twice so far. Frank Schleck and Jelle Vanendert have been the two latest winners and both will be at the start line but Schleck was already playing down his chances of another win in 2017. An Italian has not been in the podium since 2013 but it looks like this year they have Domenico Pozzovivo and Emanuele Sella with a real chance of stepping on it.
Favorites:
- Jelle Vanendert (Lotto - Soudal): Jelle Vanendert is not only racing for the Giro di Lombardia but also for the overall win in the World Tour rankings in the Italian race. This is a route that the Belgian should like as there are mountains and hills along the route, which will discard the pure hills riders. Nevertheless, it is still a classic and Vanendert is used to the long distances of classics like the Liege - Bastogne - Liege or the Amstel Gold Race. Additionally, he already knows what it is to win, given that he took the first place in 2015.
- David Lopez (Euskaltel - Euskadi): David Lopez is the only other rider in the starting line that can win the World Tour rankings, although Jerome Coppel is first ahead of the race. Lombardia is the monument that best fits the Spaniard but the closest he came to a win was the 2nd place in 2015. He has stated that he is way past his best shape after the crash and injury in the Vuelta a España but being in the start he has to be considered a candidate for the win. His 2017 has not been as spectacular as 2016 but he still won 3 stage races and the Clasica de San Sebastian.
- Laurens Ten Dam (Cannondale - Drapac): It will be the last race of Laurens Ten Dam with Cannondale, the team that saw him win the Tour de France and the Giro d'Italia. He confirmed during the World Championship that he would ride with Team Sunweb next season. This will probably be an incentive for him to do well in the race and this year's Giro di Lombardia, which seems to favor a bit more the climbers, is a great opportunity. Ten Dam skipped the Vuelta and his target for the late season was Lombardia so he may be in better shape than other favorites.
- Domenico Pozzovivo (Trek - Segafredo): Domenico Pozzovivo was quite strong, although a bit inconsistent, in the Vuelta a España. However, the Italian is racing at home and will be a strong candidate if he is in one of his good days. He is also one of the riders that is most benefited from a more mountainous race and has marked the Lombardia as one of his big targets of the season. Another point in his favor is that he will have a very good team around him, including Levi Leipheimer and Tejay van Garderen, which could make a difference if he suffers a problem in the flat between climbs.
Other riders with a shot at the podium are Emanuele Sella (Movistar Team), Cadel Evans (Lotto - Soudal), Hubert Dupont (Euskaltel - Euskadi), Mathias Frank (IAM Cycling), Frank Schleck (Etixx - Quickstep) and Michele Scarponi (Astana Pro Team).
This year's Giro di Lombardia is extremely hard. The race will take the riders from Bergamo to Como, next to the lake of the same name and only a couple of kilometers from the frontier with Switzerland. There will be 6 climbs with a total of 3,600 meters climbing, which is what you expect from a mountain stage. The two most iconic climbs are tackled in succession: Madonna del Ghisallo and the Colma di Sormano climbed through the Muro. This will probably break the peloton but they will still have Civiglio and San Fermo della Battaglia on the last 20 kilometers.
The break of the day settled at the front very early in the day. It was a group of 6 riders that were far from favorites for the race. The group included riders like Javier Moreno (Astana), Julian Alaphilippe (Ag2r), Geraint Thomas (Tinkoff), Adam Yates (Sky) and Sergio Henao (Katusha). The peloton let them go and at the first climb of the day, the Colle Gallo, they already had a gap of 6' 20''. However, with 187 kilometers to go they still had a lot to cover. Meanwhile, Etixx were setting the pace at the main bunch with riders like Tim Wellens (Etixx).
The second climb of the day was the Colle Brianza, which is a relatively easy climb and will take the riders towards Lecco. What should be an uneventful climb for the peloton turned out into an attack from relatively serious riders. Andrew Talansky (HTC) was the first to attack and he dragged Bart de Clercq (Etixx) and Xavi Tondo (Lampre) with him. They got to the top of the climb 4' 50'' behind the early break and Sergey Chernetskiy (Vacansoleil) was also trying to join that group. The riders in the bunch did not react to the attack and with 128 kilometers to go they were 7' 40'' behind the leaders.
There were no further surprises before the riders started the climb to the Madonna del Ghisallo, the most iconic climb of the Giro di Lombardia. The pace in the main group had increased considerably and riders like Michael Albasini (IAM), Damiano Caruso (Cannondale) and Dries Devenyns (Euskaltel) were leading the peloton. This meant that quite a few riders were starting to be dropped from the bunch. Meanwhile, the 2 groups at the front had merged and the gap between the groups was 3' 30''. It was most likely not enough with 63 kilometers to go and quite close to facing the Muro di Sormano. Vasil Kiryienka (IAM) had crashed a while before and did not look like joining the main group again.
The Muro di Sormano was quite far from the finish line but probably the climb that determined the outcome of the race. Laurens Ten Dam (Cannondale) and Domenico Pozzovivo (Trek) attacked at the start of the hardest part and managed to wreak havoc in the peloton. They reached the top of the climb together alongside a couple of riders from the early break, 1' 35'' behind the leaders. Meanwhile, the race behind them was completely broken. A group of 5 including David Lopez (Euskaltel) and Juanjo Cobo (HTC) was 2' 20'' from the lead. Another one including Jelle Vanendert (Lotto) and Michele Scarponi (Astana) lost 2' 55''. Behind them, many riders went through the top one by one.
There were many groups coming back together in the flat section between the descent of the Colma di Sormano and the start of Civiglio. A group of around 20 riders got together at the front of the race as many of the favorites caught up with the early break. However, Jelle Vanendert, David Lopez and Laurens Ten Dam went away in a little uphill section next to the Lake Como. Mathias Frank (IAM) tried to join and got close to following them but at the start of Civiglio he was already 55 seconds behind. The main group of chasers was 1' 15'' behind and Frank Schleck (Etixx) attacked straight away as they hit the climb. Among those missing in the group we could name Hubert Dupont (Euskaltel), Chris Froome (Lampre) and Tejay van Garderen (Trek).
Domenico Pozzovivo was the best rider in the chasing group during the climb to Civiglio but even though it looked at some point that he was cutting the gap to the front of the race, he started to fade in the last kilometer of the climb. Cadel Evans (Lotto) was very close behind him. Meanwhile, Jelle Vanendert had put a strong pace at the front and he dropped Laurens Ten Dam first and David Lopez close to the top of the climb. The race was completely broken and the riders were reaching the top of the climb one by one. The first relatively big group was 3 minutes behind Vanendert and was made of only 8 riders.
Jelle Vanendert was proving in this Lombardia how strong he is in the classics. As soon as they hit the bottom of the climb and in the flat section towards San Fermo della Battaglia he pushed on and opened the gap to David Lopez to 50 seconds. With only 8 kilometers to go it could well be a done deal. On the other hand, Lopez was keeping a gap with Laurens Ten Dam but it was not growing at all. The Dutch was 1' 25'' behind the leader before the last climb. A bit further behind, Domenico Pozzovivo and Cadel Evans had joined forces in the chase and were 1' 45'' from the front. These were all gaps that could be closed in the climb to San Fermo.
The climb to San Fermo della Battaglia did not change much in the race. Laurens Ten Dam was cutting the gap to David Lopez for the second place but at the top of the climb the difference between the two of them had only come down by a mere 10 seconds, which was probably not enough for Ten Dam to challenge him in the descent. They only had 5 kilometers to go and Jelle Vanendert was already cruising to victory. Behind Ten Dam, Cadel Evans and Domenico Pozzovivo decided to work together to try to get to the podium but they were still behind. There was not a long way to go and most of the remainder of the race was favorable, so it should not change much from this point to the finish line.
David Lopez was still descending from San Fermo della Battaglia when Jelle Vanendert was already taking the turn towards the finish line in Como, in the avenue at the shore of the lake of the same name. The gaps in the descent remained relatively stable, if anything opening a bit more among the riders. It is worth noting that there are 5 riders within 2 minutes of the leader but the next rider on the road, Frank Schleck, was 6 minutes behind at this point. This is a proof of how difficult the race was for the riders and the high pace that the riders put, starting the serious attack at the Muro di Sormano.
Jelle Vanendert wins in Como! The Belgian had no rival in this Giro di Lombardia and entered the finishing straight already celebrating his second win in the autumn monument. This is the 3rd monument win in his career and the points that he will get today also mean that he will finish 1st in the World Tour rankings. It marks the end of a season where he did not shine in the Grand Tours but it was a completely different story in the classics. The second place went the David Lopez, 1' 03'' behind the winner, while Laurens Ten Dam completed the final podium. Both Lopez and Ten Dam have been in the podium of Lombardia twice already but never won the race.
The rest of the riders finished with big gaps among them. Cadel Evans was 4th ahead of Domenico Pozzovivo, while Frank Schleck took the 6th place, but finishing 6' 35'' from the winner. That is a proof of how hard the route this year has been. The positioning of the Muro di Sormano, 50 kilometers from the finish line, made the race break into pieces and many riders disconnected after that. It generated a long battle among the leaders of the different teams and the result could only be what we saw in the climbs to Civiglio and San Fermo della Battaglia. The race probably will not break every time that far from the finish line but the ingredients are there for it to happen.
The most high-profile signing in the last few days has been the move that Michael Rogers announced, which will take him to Vacansoleil - DMC. The Australian had previously stated his dissatisfaction with the team after he was not picked to participate in the ITT Rest of the World Championships. He felt that the team had too many good riders against the clock and he had to make a move. This overload of riders meant that they could land the TTT World Championship later in the season but Rogers thought that he could fight for individual targets next season.
One of the teams that has been really active lately is Euskaltel - Euskadi. The Spaniards announced two new signings: Simon Spilak and Maxime Vantomme, while they also renewed Zdenek Stybar to the team. Spilak should be an important rider for David Lopez in the team. He has been one of the few riders having a decent performance in the Tinkoff team this year. On the other hand, Vantomme seems to be a replacement for Elia Viviani, who has not announced yet his destination. Alexander Kristoff should have a good helper in Vantomme, whereas last year it was sometimes difficult to guess who would be leading the team.
Team Sunweb was as expected the team promoted to the World Tour at the end of the season. Therefore, they have to sign many riders and make a competitive team with the limited resources that they will have. They had already started but they announced two more signings: Ian Stannard and Jurgen van den Broeck. Stannard should give them a good presence in the cobbled races, while it will be seen whether Van den Broeck acts as domestique for Laurens Ten Dam or he is given freedom to pursue his own targets in the season.
BMC Racing Team has also been a team announcing multiple riders: Jure Kocjan and Brent Bookwalter. Kocjan will apparently be given quite a prominent position in the team, which is slightly odd for a team with the budget of BMC, given that the Slovenian has not had many good results in the last few seasons. On the other hand, Bookwalter is really young and a good bet for the team to have a backup plan for Ruben Plaza. Having a few American riders is always good in terms of sponsorship and they lost Peter Stetina, which was a blow on that side.
I am sure he will be one of the top riders again next year. Euskaltel should still do quite well and they signed good riders to help him.
I am already running the end of season processes, which mainly consist on updating the attributes of the riders and setting up the calendars and fitness levels for the riders for the upcoming season.
Just as a reminder for people not used to the story, there is no subjective change of attributes from my side. I have a predefined algorithm that decides how much a rider's attributes change given the pre-season expectations, this season results and the age of the rider.
I am quite close to finishing the editing of the database for the new season, so here is a reminder of what will be coming your way during the next year.There are a few new races, like the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the Tour of Qatar, the Rund um den Finanzplatz and the Milano - Torino that found their way into the calendar as the number of days of racing expands.
One more season starts in Australia after a deserved winter rest for the riders in the peloton. The Tour Down Under will be once again the opening race of the season, as it has been for the last 3 years. It is quite a popular race among the riders given that, even if the trip is quite long for many, the weather is really nice around Adelaide this time of the year. The route itself is not too difficult and the key stage should once again be the finish in Willunga Hill. However, this climb has not produced big gaps in the last few years. The race will be once again classified HC in 2018.
The peloton will be formed by 17 teams, although only 11 of them are World Tour. Nevertheless, the quality of the riders is very good, including the twice winner in a row: Lloyd Mondory. The other rider that has won twice in Australia is Peter Sagan, although he has not been a regular contender for the top positions in the last few years. His last win was 5 years ago and it looks unlikely that he can go back to winning soon. Other than that, the field is full of sprinters and puncheurs and the local will be very keen on seeing riders like Mark Renshaw and Michael Matthews.
Favorites:
- Lloyd Mondory (Quickstep Floors): Lloyd Mondory has won the Tour Down Under 2 years in a row so it would be unwise not to include him among the favorites for the 2018 edition. The route is one that favor him significantly as he is one of the few sprinters that can climb up Willunga Hill and not lose much time. Quickstep will be as strong as ever and this year he will have Johan Vansummeren to support him in the sprints, which will be a really good help for him. The only question mark on that relationship will be who takes the lead in the cobbles season.
- Mark Renshaw (BMC Racing Team): Renshaw lost the race last year by a margin of only 5 seconds. The Australian races at home and will be itching to win on home soil. His season last year was a bit strange as his best results were podiums in the Eneco Tour and Tour Down Under. On the other hand, his sprinting was probably below what BMC expected from him, although he got a quality win in the Champs Elysees. Not that he is more settled in the team the expectations will rise and he will be expected to win much more often than last year.
- Alexander Kristoff (Euskaltel - Euskadi): Kristoff also came very close to winning the Tour Down Under in 2016 but he again fell short by a margin of only 1 second. He is a very similar rider to Mondory if we take out the fact that the French is much better in the cobbles so he should also be able to hold on to the pace in Willunga Hill. He proved that he can climb last year in the Paris - Nice and Euskaltel has brought a team to Australia that is mostly focused on protecting him on the climbs or fighting for the stage wins in the hills.
- Michael Matthews (Cannondale - Drapac): Matthews is the other Australian that is a potential candidate for the overall win. The Cannondale rider is the sprinter that is stronger over the hills and he should make it count. However, he will have it difficult to add bonus seconds to his count in the sprints of the flat stages so he will have to open gaps in the hilly stages to take the overall win. He also has the additional problem that Cannondale does not look as strong a team as they did last year and the quality of his support will be worse than that of his rivals.
Other riders with a shot at the podium are Francisco Ventoso (Movistar Team), Mauro Finetto (Euskaltel - Euskadi), Joost van Leijen (Team Sunweb), Jure Kocjan (BMC Racing Team), Tom Slagter (Cannondale - Drapac) and Peter Sagan (Team Sky).
Among the sprinters in the race, other than those that are favorites for the race, we can find Elia Viviani and Giacomo Nizzolo (Trek - Segafredo), Mark Cavendish (IAM Cycling), Tyler Farrar (Discovery Channel), Jose Joaquin Rojas (Movistar Team) and John Degenkolb (HTC - Highroad).
