Some fairly good transfers you've done there. Medvedev and Suaza both look like they are quite good riders, although their very low hill stats could cause serious problems in some hilly stages in stage races, as will time-trials for Medvedev. Cherel seems to be a good rider who should be able to score you some points in the hilly races and Dahlberg looks like a decent sprinter who can achieve some top 10s, although he will definitely struggle to take wins. As for Thorsen, he unfortunately looks like a bit of a waste of money tbh, as his low stats for everything other than sprinting/acceleration and prologue will probably ensure he won't be in the hunt for top 10s, so I don't really understand why you signed him.
Bit of a shame you had to sack Ethan, but if you're struggling for money, it's what you must do. Best of luck for the season ahead mate.
Clasico San Cristobal Tour Down Under Vuelta al Tachira Barcelona Classic Viana do Castelo Nakhon Ratchasima Trophy Betonexpressz GP Windhoek ITT Cacak Classic Costa Rican Mountain Classic Tour of Slovenie Isle of Man ITT Tour of the Battenkill Tour of Bulgaria Manx International GP Yekaterinburg Milano - Torino Herald Sun Tour GP Kigali
Cons:
- Thorsen can get the odd result but blocks their bottom of division trademark crappy sprinters
- No good leaders on any terrain outside mountains
- Climbers can't do much apart from climb mountains
Pros:
- Said climbers can climb very well
- Climbing domestiques have good res
- Thorsen might still score more than your average crap sprinter
Top Scorer: Jaime Suaza
The only option really, the Colombian can climb, time trial a bit, but mostly climb.
He can do it at a nice tempo or very fast. But it needs to be over 5kms. Or he gets dropped by Cimolai in training camps.
Rider to Watch: Paul van der Ploeg
The Aussie has already made some nice attacks before but with his brother out on loan he has his chance to make even more. Eddie Stobart is known as a very good breakaway team in CT and PVDP could be their best of the lot this season with all-around power and a nice sprint.
Eddie Stobart have finally signed a top leader in Jaime Suaza from Vesuvio. The Colombian is a climber with a mean acceleration and surprisingly decent in a time trial. He's a bit better than the rest of the orange and red climbers becuse he is on different level when it comes to climbing. However he has clear weaknesses, the hills for example, which is kind of weird. He's not a very good bike rider, just a good climber. Mevdevev, also part of the deal, but he can't TT, or accelerate very fast, but can go downhill. He'll be a useful lieutenant nevertheless. So why is a team with an actually not terrible climber down so low. Because their other leader makes Suaza look like freaking Gesink when it comes to rounded stats. The man, the myth, but certainly no legend, Daniel Thorsen.
He's treading on the toes of their established sprint leader in Cimolai, who's yet another crappy sprinter who wouldn't score much anyway so Thorsen isn't a bad signing per se. Other leaders include Cherel as a decent puncheur that won't score big due to the strength this year, Gert Joeaar for some surprise time trial placings and Yannick Martinez as a solid enough sprinter/cobbler who could stick around to compete for the semi-classics. Riders such as Lewis, Joeaar and van der Ploeg can certainly garner stage wins from breakaways as well, which Eddie Stobart seem to be proficient at.
But really this squad is a mishmash of riders, some of whom can score points, some of whom definitely can't, and one of whom is a quality climber who will need a lot of effort to do make it over hills and flats. They should make it out of the red but they're never certain, and so they are the highest of our very orange teams.
1. Aeropostal will have 1 point scorer in the top 50, which will be Raul Cabrera 2. Andorra Cycling Project will finish in the bottom 5 because of the lack of back up and hill stats in their climbers, however in a few years they'll have an exciting group of young prospects 3. Azteca has a rider finish in the top 3 on every single mountain stage (excluding breakaway victories) but will never have a rider in the top 3 on a cobble or sprint stage (excluding breakaways again) 4. Campari - superdry does not win a race all year, still scores well-ish off top 10s 5. Cycle Yorkshire's Rohan Dennis wins the most time trials in the CT 6. Eddie Stobart's Daniel Thorsen does not get a single top 15 placing and never rides for another team again, however the team actually does pretty well 7. Garmin - BikeNZ has the most Breakaway wins in the CT 8. Nordstrom finishes in the top 5 9. In-n-Out's Kai Reus wins only 1 Time trial all year 10. Kulczyk - DMTEX promotes 11. Löbauer Stadtwerke promotes next year, finishes outside top 15 this year 12. Philips - Continental finishes with 3 riders in the top 30 point scorers 13. Proximus does not score points on a single mountain, hill or timetrial stage 14. Repsol Honda doesn't promote 15. SanCor becomes the go-to sprint train for sprinters who don't have a train and need a train to leech off of 16. Sauber finished outside the top 10 17. Statoil finishes dead last 18. Reddit's winner anacona is the only rider on the team who wins a mountain stage despite having 5 riders with 76+ mountain 19. Telia wins the most mountain classifications 20. Balkan cycling project finishes in the complete middle of the ranking (12th) 21. VMP - Argon has 6 riders that score points all season 22. Wiggle loans out or sells 12 of its 18 riders after this season 23. World Cycling Centre shocks the CT and finishes either second or first 24. Xero's Simon Clarke has a breakaway victory before he has a sprint victory
The OVL calculations for all riders are formula based, using a rating for each rider for the categories of 'Puncheur', Stage Races', 'Sprinter', 'Time Trial', 'Cobbles' and 'Climber'.
Based on these formulas, I've calculated a category rating for each team, based on their best 3 riders for each category. A rider can only be ranked 1st, or 2nd, for his team in one category - with the exception of Sprint and Cobbles.
This results in a team division rank for each category (shown below) alongside a team category rating. I've experimented with a few methods, based on the ranks and the ratings, to predict the overall CT standings.
Puncheur
1
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
:
vd Hugenhaben
Kratochvila
Hardy
2
Azteca - NBCSN
:
Chaves
Squire
Becerra
3
World Cycling Centre
:
Boily
Rodriguez G
Armee
4
Xero Racing p/b Octagon
:
Roux
Diggle
Bennett
5
Team Reddit
:
Monfort
Simon
Schoonbroodt
6
Campari - Super Dry
:
Bratashcuk
Kebede
Cataldo
7
Goldcorp - Nordstrom
:
Pellaud
Anderson
Rybakov
8
Aeropostal Venezuela
:
Grippo
Besada
Pirazzi
9
Kulczyk - DMTEX
:
Vichot
Hollenstein
Penasa
10
Repsol - Honda
:
Cunego
Gilbert
Valls
Spoiler
11 Telia-Brussels Airlines
12 Sauber Petronas Racing
13 Proximus Continental Team
14 The Balkan Cycling Project
15 Philips - Continental
16 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
17 SanCor
18 Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
19 Statoil Pro Cycling
20 Eddie Stobart
21 Andorra Cycling Project
22 cycleYorkshire
23 VMP - Argon 18
24 Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
Stage Races
1
Azteca - NBCSN
:
Eastman
Chaves
Squire
2
Team Reddit
:
Krasnoperov
Anacona
Manfredi
3
Repsol - Honda
:
Valls
Cunego
Nakane
4
cycleYorkshire
:
Tvetcov
Dennis
Woods
5
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
:
Kratochvila
vd Hugenhaben
Reus
6
Eddie Stobart
:
Suaza
Medvedev
Lewis
7
Kulczyk - DMTEX
:
Penasa
Cieslik
Pozzo
8
Xero Racing p/b Octagon
:
Bennett
Salinas
Antón
9
Sauber Petronas Racing
:
Zoidl
Ahmad Zamri
Mat Senan
10
Campari - Super Dry
:
Cataldo
Girardi
Kebede
Spoiler
11 VMP - Argon 18
12 The Balkan Cycling Project
13 Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
14 Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
15 Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
16 SanCor
17 Andorra Cycling Project
18 World Cycling Centre
19 Telia-Brussels Airlines
20 Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack
21 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
22 Philips - Continental
23 Proximus Continental Team
24 Statoil Pro Cycling
11 Campari - Super Dry
12 Telia-Brussels Airlines
13 VMP - Argon 18
14 Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
15 Statoil Pro Cycling
16 In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
17 Sauber Petronas Racing
18 Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
19 World Cycling Centre
20 Proximus Continental Team
21 Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack
22 SanCor
23 cycleYorkshire
24 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
Summary
In-n-Out immediately stand out, as they top the tables across three distinct disciplines: Puncheur, Sprinter and Time Trial. They also make the Top 5 in Stage Races, but in here and in the Climber category, it is Azteca and Reddit who are rated as the strongest teams. Azteca also rating 2nd on the hills, makes it clear where their priorities are - particularly in contrast to theit other ranks. World Cycling Centre and Philips are the two other teams with a pair of podiums - one of which is shared: Cobbles.
Many teams have evidently focused on certain terrain, and the average range of ranks is 16. The impressive exception to this rule is Kulczyk, who rank in the Top 10 for every single category. They may not be the strongest in each case, a best of 4th in Time Trials, but in a season where all CT teams are forced to ride a varied calendar, their all-round abilities will be the envy of many. Reddit are next best in this regard, always in the Top 11, followed by In-n-Out (Top 16), Sauber Petronas (Top 17) and Wiggle (Top 18).
17 teams feature in the Top 5 at least once, with 4 more with at least one Top 10 appearance. That leaves just three: VMP, Garmin and SanCor. The numbers don't look great for them.
PU
SR
SP
TT
CO
CL
Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
8
14
3
14
24
5
Andorra Cycling Project
21
17
23
6
16
4
Azteca - NBCSN
2
1
19
23
17
3
Campari - Super Dry
6
10
17
24
9
11
cycleYorkshire
22
4
14
2
5
23
Eddie Stobart
20
6
12
15
12
2
Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
24
13
13
17
19
14
Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack
7
20
21
22
2
21
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
1
5
1
1
11
16
Kulczyk - DMTEX
9
7
6
4
7
8
Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
16
21
15
3
13
24
Philips - Continental
15
22
2
7
3
9
Proximus Continental Team
13
23
11
20
4
20
Repsol - Honda
10
3
24
13
18
7
SanCor
17
16
16
18
14
22
Sauber Petronas Racing
12
9
10
5
6
17
Statoil Pro Cycling
19
24
18
8
22
15
Team Reddit
5
2
9
11
10
1
Telia-Brussels Airlines
11
19
7
12
21
12
The Balkan Cycling Project
14
12
8
16
23
10
VMP - Argon 18
23
11
22
19
20
13
Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
18
15
5
9
15
18
World Cycling Centre
3
18
4
10
1
19
Xero Racing p/b Octagon
4
8
20
21
8
6
Bringing it together
The next stage is bringing all of the above into a divisional standing prediction. Five different rankings have been produced here, the first two come from the ranking positions, the other 3 use the team category scores themselves - sometimes adjusted, sometimes weighted.
And the average of these produces my Slightly Mathematical CT division prediction:
1
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
2
Team Reddit
3
Kulczyk - DMTEX
4
World Cycling Centre
5
Azteca - NBCSN
6
Philips - Continental
7
Sauber Petronas Racing
8
Xero Racing p/b Octagon
9
cycleYorkshire
10
Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
11
Eddie Stobart
12
Campari - Super Dry
13
Repsol - Honda
14
The Balkan Cycling Project
15
Telia-Brussels Airlines
16
Andorra Cycling Project
17
Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
18
Proximus Continental Team
19
Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack
20
Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
21
Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
22
Statoil Pro Cycling
23
SanCor
24
VMP - Argon 18
A breakdown of all five predictions is shown below. They gave some very consistent results with the exact same Top 4 each time, and almost the same Top 5. In-n-Out are my predicted champions, to bounce straight back to PCT. Reddit and Kulczyk are the strongest new teams, with World Cycling Centre the top returning CT team, and Azteca also predicted to return to PCT.
Marcovdw wrote: Did a small numbers based prediction myself, but don't feel like making a new thread for it
Because everyone's prediction is so full based of subjective things and very difficult calculations, I based my prediction relying on one stat: OVL. Which I know is not a 100% accurate reflection of the actual strength but it's good enough for me. I'll call it "Marco's overall ranking based on overall"
There are three individual rankings in the spoilers. They are all based on the average of the first n-riders of the team. The final ranking is a combination of those three rankings
European B Road Race 157 km
Oceanian Time Trial 38 km
African Time Trial 38 km
Asian Time Trial 57 km
American Time Trial 41 km
European Time Trial 28 km
Oceanian Road Race 241 km
African Road Race 177 km
Asian Road Race 212 km
American Road Race 191 km
European Road Race 157 km
Intercontinental Team Time Trial 91 km
Intercontinental Road Race 47 km
RIDERS COMPETING
American Time Trial
Colombia J.Suaza
European Time Trial
Estonia G.Joeaar
Oceanian Road Race
Australia S.Lewis Australia P.Van der Ploeg Australia D.Thorsen
