fcancellara wrote:
Lombardia will be an epic battle between Contador and Urán, I think.
Can't see Uran even challenging Contador. It's Contie vs. Gilbert.
I think that's simplifying it too much. Gilbert is the odds on favorite, obviously, but I'm not sure I'd pick Contador second. I know he's in some of the best form we've ever seen from him, but Trentino was his first classic victory ever. Like, in eight years of pro racing ever. I'd be surprised if he has the feel to win Lombardia, especially with the way it ends kind of strangely, with that descent down onto the flats. Do you really think he's holding Gilbert off with a 15" gap there?
I think it's Gilbert 1, then a cluster of guys at 2, then a sharp drop off to the 3rd tier.
Really, I didn't like the odds on anyone (all too low) except for Cunego. He's been pretty awful as of late, and didn't do well at Trentino, but 30-1 odds for a two time winner who loves this race more than life itself? I'll certainly bet $3.00 PCM on him.
I assume that you mean Milano-Torino, not Trentino? Because last time I checked, Trentino wasn't a one-day race.
And by Contador vs. Gilbert, I mean that Contador will win if the race gets very hard early, and Gilbert if they wait for the last climb. Last year the climbers did better than the puncheurs, and I doubt that'll change.
Pellizotti2 wrote:
I assume that you mean Milano-Torino, not Trentino? Because last time I checked, Trentino wasn't a one-day race.
And by Contador vs. Gilbert, I mean that Contador will win if the race gets very hard early, and Gilbert if they wait for the last climb. Last year the climbers did better than the puncheurs, and I doubt that'll change.
Of course...sorry.
Again, not so sure I see Contador winning it, regardless of the way the race plays out. I'd agree if the finish was on top of a climb, but I'm just not sure he'll get the separation to be able to gain the victory with the way the run-in works out.
He's definitely a top-5 favorite, but I'd probably place J-Rod, Nibali, and (depending on how he's feeling) Valverde above him, not because I think any of them are stronger, but because of their experience with this type of racing and because of the punch they carry.
