With most of the year's PT racing already behind us, every single one of the few remaining ones now can be crucial for any team still trying to achieve a goal - be it the win, the podium, a Top 10 - or just bare survival.
Given that the final third of the month belongs to the rising stars - with the Tour de l'Avenir being the perfect place to showcase their talent - there were only four races potentially on a PT team's schedule, three thereof in PTHC. Let's take a look:
The 5 day long Deutschland Tour was one of the year's final highlights for the world's top TTers - at least for those present, that is. Four days for the sprinters, plus a long TT to decide this PTHC event.
And who says long TT obviously cannot look past Wirtgen as the top favourite. The Luxembourger indeed delivered, and while a 4" margin isn't a big deal, it was enough for him to secure both the stage 3 win and the GC. Like quite some other teams, EA Vesuvio weren't favoured by the heavy winds, seeing most of their depth riders land outside the Top 50 - but Munton (19th) and Tanfield (27th) still easily made it, and even Jungels (48th) just made the cut. They had 3 more in the Top 100 - but missed out on the team standings points because of a gap on one of the flat stages. So that's 292 points for Vesuvio.
Grieg are in desperate need of points and would clearly have taken the GC win, but Würtz had to settle for 2nd - and with barely any depth, that's actually just good enough for 5th place among the PT teams with just over 200 points. So who else finished ahead of them?
In 2nd place, we have Cedevita! They were continuing to surf on the high after a strong home tour, and with Lammertink in 5th and Christodoulos in a fantastic 10th position - clearly favoured by the weather conditions - they actually were the only team having two riders in the GC Top 10! Groselj (28th) and Penko (30th) - the latter rather surprisingly as well - made the Top 30, and the Slovenians had three more in the Top 100. And while they didn't get any notable stage results on the flat stages, they were present in the hills - with Hoelgaard claiming the KoM jersey and a great chunk of points! All in all, 246 for Cedevita.
The fight for 3rd best team was very fierce, and in the end it's just 2 points - or a Top 100 result's value - separating 3rd and 4th places. With the better end for Oxxo, whose highlight obviously was Zmorka's 3rd place in the ITT and therefore in the GC! Sütterlin was disappointing with 21st place, whereas Ocampo in 26th - plus 2nd in U25 - did a great job. Erdenebat (49th) also just made the Top 50, with Aguilar Mendez added some depth points with 65th place plus 6th U25. Halvorsen on the other hand had another mediocre race at best, finishing 6th, 5th and 7th in the first three sprint stages (and 8th in points). At least the Mexicans were the 2nd best team, scoring a couple of extra points - 226 in total.
Which means that Polar had to settle for 224, scored mostly by Mullen and Krul via GC (4th and 11th), plus a stage 5 win by Philipsen.
The Trouée d'Arenberg then was the stage for one of the most unique events on the calendar, the PTHC TT classic Chrono d'Arenberg. This year, the organizers decided to include far more pavé sectors than in recent years, aiming to give the TTers with at least some decent cobbles skills some better chances for a good result.
And they did achieve their target, judging from the results! The win even went to PCT - to one of the absolute top favourites. The other one was Anderberg, and he rocked Arenberg once again! He missed out on the win by 3", but took a clear 2nd place and 125 points. Swift ended up in the Top 50 as well, adding two more points to get Aker's total to 127.
Van Baarle was another rider clearly benefitting from the route change, claiming the final podium spot in a very close race. Vanthourenhout ended up 30th, with cobbler Tiller getting a Top 50 - 107 points for King Power.
We then had 3 teams with 90+ points, with Ganna's 4th place just not being enough to claim the 3rd highest PT score. Instead, Vesuvio's depth was worth 97 points, with Lampawog in 6th and Tanfield in 13th scoring the bigger points and cobbler Spengler adding the final couple.
After the TTers and the TT-cobbles hybrids, now onto the pure cobblers! PT's final cobbled classic was on the menu in Great Britain, with the East Midlands Cicle Classic! The best of the best reunited once again - and for some it probably was their final race where they really had a shot at the win.
Which clearly isn't the case for Per, though, who's not even 30 yet - and yet, he's one of the world's best of the discipline! He was patient enough to wait for the perfect moment to launch the decisive attack with 7km to go - and no-one could catch him! A great win for the Slovenian, rewarded by 225 points! Resell and Meiler made the Top 50 as well for some more notable points - and the rest of the team at least finished the race, which clearly wasn't the case for everyone! 270 points scored by Carlsberg, the highest score in the race.
Pedersen - another U30 rider - is the world's #1 cobbler on paper after Wisniowski's decline, and was in prime position to sprint for the win - until Per's perfectly timed attack, that is. He easily sprinted to 2nd place, but the result obviously is still a little bit disappointing. Even more so given his team's need for big points. At least, Grieg got the depth, with Bohli, De Gendt, Stokbro and Jansen finishing 27th through 30th - and the Danes ending up with 226 points. Definitely not bad - but will it be enough in the end?
Van Hooydonck didn't have an awesome year so far, but in Great Britain he was really strong! He managed to keep Pedersen's wheel while trying to chase down Per - and only had to let go of the Dane in the final sprint. Expectedly, of course. Still, 3rd place is a big result for himself and for Fastned in their fight for the Top 10. 129 points for the Belgian, with Van der Hoorn also just making the Top 50. With everyone else finishing the race as well, that's 169 points for the Dutch outfit.
The last race of the month was the final big event for the sprinters! Three flat days in Ireland, for the PTHC Ras Tailteann.
However, this is one of the clearly undersubscribed bands - and there were even just 8 PT teams! It wasn't only the numerical inferiority that made this a generally awful race for PT, though - some of the best sprinters simply didn't show up. Dainese, Halvorsen, AKA surely were the most notable ones - all of them PT riders.
To make it short, PT lost out vs. PCT by 699 vs. 1,625 in terms of points. And just one PT team actually got a really good score - the 2nd best overall, actually. In fact, it was just one rider who did well - Cullaigh! 2nd, 9th and 4th in these three stages were good enough to claim 2nd place both in GC and points, scoring 203 points. Holmes and Hansen both made the Top 40, and cycleYorkshire also were 4th in team standings, scoring 234 points in total.
Which is more than twice as much as Assa Abloy! We said it, Dainese didn't really show up - except for a 5th place on day 2, resulting in 15th place overall. Not even near to where he should be, but that's life. Taubel (21st), Mosca (32nd), Prasad (35th), Konychev (39th), Matsumoto (44th) and Blume Levy (45th) all made the Top 50 as well, at least the depth was there. All in all, that's 110 points.
The 2nd best PT sprinter actually was Jakobsen, finishing 4th and 7th on the first two days, then completely messing up stage 3. It was enough for 7th place overall, about where you'd expect him. 99 points for the Dutchman. However, with only Hesters and Gaday barely making the Top 100, the Spaniards had close to no depth, and had to settle with 103 points despite their sprinter doing pretty well.
So, not a whole lot of racing this month - and even just the bare minimum of the mandatory 2 RDs in East Midlands for some teams. So don't expect huge numbers this month. But what do they really look like?
Well, Vesuvio's 542 points is still a strong output - even more so considering that with only 9 RDs spent, that's a return of 60 PpRD! Which is "only" the 4th best average, but it should still greatly help them getting out of the relegation mud.
It's a similar story for Grieg, who participated in the same races - but "thanks" to Wirtgen's decisive improvement on the TT bike, they still scored almost 100 points less than the Luxembourgers. It's 446 points for the Scandinavians, but with their PpRD being "only" the 8th highest, they didn't gain as much as you might guess.
Another team with the same races is Cedevita, who scored another 65 points lower, 381 points to be precise. PpRD-wise, they're right behind Grieg, which is still a Top 10 - and probably means they didn't lose that much of the safety margin they had by the end of July.
While the Top 3 all spent 9 RDs, cycleYorkshire brings some variation, racing Ras Tailteann instead of Arenberg. And that one definitely paid off, being the best scoring PT team there by far! 367 points scored by the Brits, who look to be well on track to finish in the Top 10!
Polar are the last Top 5 team, just 7 points down, but with the same schedule as the Top 3. So slightly higher PpRD than cycleYorkshire, but I guess that doesn't really matter.
4 more teams are above 300 points: King Power, ZARA, Oxxo and Carlsberg. Of these, Carlsberg can be most happy with the output, getting a Top 3 PpRD - despite being far below expectations in Ireland! ZARA on the other hand were the only team to do all 12 RDs this month, making their PpRD the 6th lowest of the month... That doesn't look like the huge scoring they needed to get much closer to safety.
The GIANTS then round off the Top 10 with 287, which however is just the 14th best PpRD. The Swiss are still looking on track to stay up, though, whereas their Top 10 ambitions surely took a hit.
On the other hand, Aker were highly efficient, scoring 269 points in just 4 days of racing - Anderberg obviously is their rider of the month, scoring 222 out of these, or 83%.
Tinkoff had a huge chance to take over the overall lead, racing 6 RDs more than Gazelle, but did they take their chance? 219 points scored in 10 RDs surely is below their own expectations, in particular East Midlands was inexplicably awful.
MOL are still very much in the fight against relegation, and with 212 points out of 2 races - or 4 RDs - they can be happy. It's a Top 10 PpRD, so they did their job - but have to hope the others didn't.
Assa are the final team above 200 points, but having spent 10 RDs they sure can't be too happy with this outcome, either.
Which is a completely different story for the final team in the Top 15, Fastned. They may have scored only 169 points - but they did this in the only mandatory race of the month. Resulting in a fantasy PpRD of more than 80, which is by far the highest value of the month.
Xero might be among their main rivals in the fight for a Top 10, and the Kiwis are right next, with 152 points. But they did twice as many races. In particular Arenberg is still a great outcome for them, as Ganna couldn't necessarily be expected to do that well on this year's heavily cobbled route.
Lidl are next, and while they're not last in this update, their 137 points out of 10 RDs still results in the worst average of the month, just 13.7 PpRD. But generally speaking, the bottom 6 team are pretty close, with only 27 points between 17th and 22nd. Besides Lidl, we have Moser, Puma, Gazelle, Rabobank and Evonik down there.
And while that's bad news for some in the relegation fight, others will have lost some ground in the title or at least podium race. But before we'll take a look at the new overall standings, here are the full August numbers:
Pos
Team
Deu
Are
Mid
Ras
Total
RD
PpRD
1
EA Vesuvio
292
97
153
0
542
9
60.22
2
Grieg-Maersk
205
15
226
0
446
9
49.56
3
Cedevita
246
17
118
0
381
9
42.33
4
cycleYorkshire
103
0
30
234
367
10
36.70
5
Polar
224
57
79
0
360
9
40.00
6
King Power
121
107
104
0
332
9
36.89
7
ZARA - Irizar
154
30
40
103
327
12
27.25
8
Oxxo - Frisby
226
0
40
50
316
10
31.60
9
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
0
0
270
44
314
5
62.80
10
Jura GIANTS
120
90
77
0
287
9
31.89
11
Aker - MOT
0
127
142
0
269
4
67.25
12
Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
94
0
64
61
219
10
21.90
13
MOL Cycling Team
0
84
128
0
212
4
53.00
14
Assa Abloy
14
0
80
110
204
10
20.40
15
Fastned
0
0
169
0
169
2
84.50
16
Xero Racing
0
94
58
0
152
4
38.00
17
Lidl Cycling
68
0
45
24
137
10
13.70
18
Moser - Sygic
0
22
35
73
130
7
18.57
19
Team Puma - SAP
87
0
35
0
122
7
17.43
20
Gazelle
0
40
80
0
120
4
30.00
21
Rabobank
0
0
111
0
111
2
55.50
22
Evonik - ELKO
0
0
110
0
110
2
55.00
Full Ranking
We saw it, neither Gazelle nor Tinkoff had a great month. The gap in the formers' favour was 57 points, and they scored 120 this month. The Russians didn't have an awesome month, but still got more than 200 points - meaning that Team Tinkoff are our new leaders!
But it's obviously still very close; Tinkoff now have a lead of 6,955 vs. 6,913 points, just 42 points. Both teams have now spent the same number of RDs, so obviously it's a wide open race! ToNE and Lombardia are on the menu for both, and in particular the former could make a big difference depending on how the race pans out. Both have the Japan Cup as well, but Tinkoff will do Battenkill while Gazelle have Rheden - it will surely be a fun fight to follow!
Or could anyone else crash the title race? Maybe Polar, still sitting in 3rd place? They did get a little closer, but it's still almost 300 points to the top spot. But yeah, a big surprise in ToNE and the gap is gone.
However, the team with the 3rd best PpRD - and hence projected to finish 3rd - currently are King Power, gaining one spot this month. The Thai have Balkans left as an additional card up their sleeve - but with McNulty being done with his season, who should score there? Gidich, who still has 10 RDs left? Otherwise, Van Baarle could be a strong outside favourite in ToNE - but with a 200 points gap to the podium spots, they definitely need some big results!
Aker have also gained a spot after another really efficient month, and with 6,332 points are trailing King Power by just 120 points. However, their Top 5 spot isn't quite safe yet, given that Evonik - who also have Balkans, and for them it should be a really big race - are just 90 points further down, but projected almost 150 points ahead.
Behind the Top 6, there's a gap of more than 250 points down to the Pumas. And while they also have Balkans left on their schedule, it might not be obvious for them to score big without Herklotz racing. The latter should get big points in Lombardia, sure, but it's not looking great even for a Top 5 right now.
It's a slightly different situation for cycleYorkshire, currently totalling 5,868 points, just 112 less than the Germans. But if my count is right - and my startlist speculation as well - they could still send Morton to the Balkans, which could end up in a pretty big score.
We then have Carlsberg another 100 points down (roughly) - but in terms of projections, it's actually looking like the Danes should be rather worried about their Top 10 spot! They don't have Balkans left on their schedule - and right behind them are two teams who do.
One of them is Xero, currently in 10th position with 5,620 points, 152 behind Carlsberg. But Xero have Pidcock, a tailor-made rider for ToNE. And they have the defending Balkans champion Areruya, who also has 3 more classics left on his schedule. So I guess betting on Xero ending up in the Top 10 isn't too risky at this point.
Fastned then are just 19 points behind Xero, and are also projected slightly ahead of Carlsberg. Phinney does have some RDs left - and so does Vansevenant, even a ton of them. The latter already finished 5th in ToNE last year - unmaxed - and some of the hilly classics should suit him, too. Will we get two promoted teams in the Top 10 this year? Definitely not excluded!
Or will we get three, given that Jura are right next, staying in 12th place? Well, unlikely. Sure, they have Küng who should like ToNE (where he already podiumed 3 years ago), and both Schmid and Theuns are good riders for the final races of the season. But after the upcoming month, the gap to the Top 10 will likely be far too big. Still, with 5,545 points, the Swiss should be safe as well.
Vesuvio had a great month, gaining 3 spots, jumping up from near-relegation and 16th place to pretty clear safety and 13th place, just 30 points behind Jura. And the Luxembourgers also have Balkans on their schedule, even though they might not bring a top contender. It's surely not been the season they expected, but at least they can relax now during the final two months.
Is this Cedevita's case, too? I'm inclined to say yes, but I'm not fully convinced. The margin to the relegation zone looks comfortable with almost 500 points. But a lot will depend on whether they find a way to score decent points in ToNE - just as for the teams behind them, actually. The hills are their clear weakness this year, so we'll see. But it's definitely looking far better than previously!
Next up are Oxxo, trailing Cedevita by about 60 points, 5,346 vs. 5,404. But the gut feeling is that the final two months could suit the Mexicans better, so holding onto their Top 15 spot must be the minimum goal, and gaining at least one definitely is on the table.
As had to be expected, Moser dropped down quite a bit, from 13th to 16th. With 5,289 points, they're still more than 300 points clear of the relegation zone. But who is left to score for them? Kudus should ride Lombardia, which might be a crucial race - but who can rock ToNE? Or the cobbles? Or the hills? For me, the Czech outfit still is at risk!
Which holds even more given that next up are Grieg, improving from 19th to 17th - the final safe spot. With 5,176 points, they trail Moser by 113 points - but Pedersen still has 11 RDs left, and if he can rock ToNE, Grieg should be safe. Doing well in Rheden is a "must" anyway. And otherwise?
Well, otherwise we have Rabobank, currently trailing by 227 points. With 4,949 they have indeed dropped to the first relegation spot - and by quite a margin. But they have quite some experience with this uncomfortable situation - and with Formolo and Gerts, they definitely do have the riders to get out of there! But they sure have to deliver...
MOL are quite a lot worse off even. Just 3 points behind Rabobank, they have already spent 6 additional RDs, meaning they'll have to close the 200+ points gap to Grieg with the same amount of race days. Well, if Ardila wins Lombardia, that's still possible, but he'll definitely have to do well in the hills. And Altur on the cobbles. Let's say the final races aren't that bad for them, it's just the current situation that is.
For the final 3 teams, there seems to be little hope. ZARA are more than 500 points behind Rabobank and MOL already, and more than 750 behind safety. It will take more than Cosnefroy going back-to-back in ToNE to stay up this year, but who else could be capable of achieving a miracle?
For Lidl, it's already more than 1,100 points to safety, so as harsh as it sounds, they can start planning for PCT - if they're not doing it yet anyway. The same goes for Assa Abloy, being already more than 1,500 points behind Grieg - a rebuild will definitely be needed, if they continue at all.
That's it. The title fight looks to be wide open, and so does the fight for 3rd, and for the final Top 10 spots. Relegation-wise, a lot will depend on September obviously, with two huge races upcoming. Stay tuned - but for now, you can take a look at the current numbers:
As expected after the GT season, there hasn't been a lot of movement in the first couple of spots. The Top 4 actually didn't race at all - and yet they're still the Top 4.
They are Silvio Herklotz, dominating the MG world once again, having 2,427 points and potentially 280 more from Lombardia.
Egan Bernal is next, almost cracking the 2,000 points this year, with 1,970. Fernando Gaviria holds onto 3rd with 1,683, 10 points clear of Lachlan Morton. Who could still score well, though.
Tom Wirtgen has moved up from 7th to 5th, and will most likely still be riding ToNE given his remaining RDs. Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier dropping out of the Top 5 - 60 points behind Wirtgen already - confirms that he really didn't have a great year.
Merhawi Kudus also lost a spot to Wirtgen, now sitting in 7th place, with 1,541 points.
Which means he has a rather comfortable cushion, but only at first sight. Mads Pedersen is trailing by 126 points only - but more importantly, Joseph Areruya is less than 200 points behind. The question will not be if, but rather how many spots the Rwandan will gain in the final two months. Could he get a podium?
David Per has improved by 6 spots this month, jumping up from 16th to 10th, after his great East Midlands win. But with names like Lutsenko, Vansevenant or Pidcock right behind, it's questionable whether he can hold onto that Top 10 spot...
Per actually was the most notable improver inside the Top 20, which is pretty normal at this point of the season. We have to go all the way down to 30th place and Anderberg to find a rider gaining more spots, as he moved up 15 places. Right behind him, Cullaigh even gained 16.
You can surely find more heroes by looking at the numbers - which I'll happily let you do now:
What a drama at the top! And somewhat at the relegations too, although that Can shut down faster than the title aspirations. Really exciting final period ahead of us.
Oh and obviously as much kudos as ever for the wonderful write-up!
A solid and much needed month for us. Very encouraging to see us take the step up to the safe zone, but we still very much need a few more good results. Rheden especially is a must do good race. Feels like it's going to come down to the last race here.
Thank you for another brilliant update, Fabianski Must say it feels incredible that there is only two PT races left this season, with most teams having another two (or three?) PTHC races left, I guess.
Two good race days by us (or 4 in counting terms), which makes it a good month for us, even with points scores low. Being able to hang on to the pace with only the two one day races, is great, and it puts us in a position where a lot is possible for the final four races. Admittedly, the most likely scenario is that we drop out of the top 5 due to the lots of teams being in with a shot at it. On the other hand, if we get "our" perfect ToNE (after 11 years (!) of trying), we might get it done, as other than ToNE, Valter is leading the line in 4/6 race days (counting terms), with Anderberg having Rheden in addition.
Particularly Evonik must look to get well inside the top 5, as they can potentially make it a three way fight for the title with a massive Balkans. The same goes for King Power, if Gidich does everything right in Balkans, there is a world where King Power push for the title too. If any of them can do something special there, I won't just yet say the title fight for certain is only between Gazelle and Tinkoff. Having said all that, of course the top two teams must still be considered favourites, and I do still fancy Gazelle, I must say. Expecting them to have Lutsenko left for Lombardia and maybe 1 more PTHC hilly race? If so, the pressure is on, and he can be the big difference maker in the run in. Though, Tinkoff have "always" performed very well this season, and if they can make something special in the ToNE (not sure how and who, to be honest, but who knows), the fight could be over before Lutsenko gets his chance on the hilly terrain.
For the fight to avoid relegation, it looks difficult for MOL, I must say, which leaves only Rabobank with a decent chance at saving themselves of the bottom 5 teams, I think. They definitely have a good chance at saving themselves seeing their roster and the remaining races, but all of their races will have a huge prize now. One bad race, and it could be gone. Intense stuff!
ember wrote:
Particularly Evonik must look to get well inside the top 5, as they can potentially make it a three way fight for the title with a massive Balkans.
More than 700 points behind the top seems too much for me to have hopes. Last season Balkans was worth 311 points for me with basically every team now ahead of us outscoring us in ToNE. So even with a good Balkans, we should be running out of race days to catch up.
Thank you for the update, Fabianski. Really an atrocious month for us, with apart from a good Zmorka in Deutschland simply everyone who could score well underperforming by a big margin. A shame we got to this point, when we should have been certain of staying in for a while now realistically. All pressure on Higuita in the final races of the season now!
Very excited for the title fight! Closing the PpRD gap to Tinkoff this month was an important first step. But now we need some solid performances to win. Maybe even overperformances. Because Tinkoff and the closest teams chasing us have plenty of scoring potential left.
Malecki and Aleotti will be leading in ToNE. Leknessund being our engine in the Giro's stage 3 TTT was crucial for setting up Lutsenko's early maglia rosa success. But the price we have to pay is that ToNE didn't fit his schedule.
Teunissen leads in Rheden. So far he has done okay, but nothing special. His home race is a final chance to add some shine to his 2024 season.
Lutsenko leads in Japan. He's having a great season and a top 3 in the land of the rising sun would be a fitting way to end it. The race suits his skills, but last season he somehow got dropped on the penultimate hill. He will be out for revenge.
And yes, you read it correctly: Lutsenko is not going to race in Lombardia. Last season he finished 28th, more than three minutes behind the front group. And contrary to Japan it actually didn't really surprise me that much. The climbs in Lombardia are just too long for him. So this year our leaders there are Dombrowski, Warchol and Carboni on a depth scoring strategy.
Thank you for the update, Fabianski. Looking forward to the upcoming races!
Thank you so much for another fantastic write-up Fabianski!
Per's win in East Midlands was awesome and really keeps us alive for the top 10 fight. Unfortunately, AKA's floundering in Ras sunk us back down to the mean. We're still have a shot, though I agree the teams behind us have better odds given the remaining schedule. Top 10 likely requires a big showing from per in TONE (which I don't expect to favor cobblers) and a win in Battenkill against tough competition. Cause other than that, it's all Aranburu left. So, not impossible, but not optimistic. If we could pull it off though, it would be pretty awesome—for both our budget and team history.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
ember wrote:
Particularly Evonik must look to get well inside the top 5, as they can potentially make it a three way fight for the title with a massive Balkans.
More than 700 points behind the top seems too much for me to have hopes. Last season Balkans was worth 311 points for me with basically every team now ahead of us outscoring us in ToNE. So even with a good Balkans, we should be running out of race days to catch up.
A pity ToNE comes before Balkans thinking of excitement! More seriously, I fully agree, but if there's any team behind who got a slight, slight chance, it's yours. It will take huge scorings in Balkans and ToNE though. Balkans last season was scoring wise quite poor for MAL and Evonik, I feel, as we also had a certain then PCT team running away with the most points, I suspect 400-450 points definitely feels possible with an amazing race. ToNE though, is just at least as big a challenge/problem, as the Evonik dream could be crushed before we get to Balkans
Great stuff again and again Fabianski, about Tinkoff: I think the title for us after this really bad month will be almost impossible. Somehow after we became a contender the weird results keep on coming in.
ember wrote:
Particularly Evonik must look to get well inside the top 5, as they can potentially make it a three way fight for the title with a massive Balkans.
More than 700 points behind the top seems too much for me to have hopes. Last season Balkans was worth 311 points for me with basically every team now ahead of us outscoring us in ToNE. So even with a good Balkans, we should be running out of race days to catch up.
A pity ToNE comes before Balkans thinking of excitement! More seriously, I fully agree, but if there's any team behind who got a slight, slight chance, it's yours. It will take huge scorings in Balkans and ToNE though. Balkans last season was scoring wise quite poor for MAL and Evonik, I feel, as we also had a certain then PCT team running away with the most points, I suspect 400-450 points definitely feels possible with an amazing race. ToNE though, is just at least as big a challenge/problem, as the Evonik dream could be crushed before we get to Balkans
I guess there is a path forward as a Polanc ToNE podium, Balkans MAL victory and Lombardia MAL victory is all possible. But the odds of getting results very close to those marks in each of those races and dodging big results for any of multiple other teams with a better current position is still very slim. Feels like i have to hope that i win a parlay bet of 9 football matches. Every match itself looks reasonable but they never go through all at the same time. Its far more likely that ToNE is the nail in the coffin for us than all those races lining up perfectly for us.
Must say it feels incredible that there is only two PT races left this season, with most teams having another two (or three?) PTHC races left, I guess. 
More seriously, I fully agree, but if there's any team behind who got a slight, slight chance, it's yours. It will take huge scorings in Balkans and ToNE though. Balkans last season was scoring wise quite poor for MAL and Evonik, I feel, as we also had a certain then PCT team running away with the most points, I suspect 
