Kozhatayev will indeed not have it easy in this years CT GC competition, but I believe Nikiema can do very well in the hilly races. Schomber is also a very fun rider for both C2, C1 and even HC prologues, and Zariff and Page could net you some nice sprinting points, as long as Zariff is better planned and surrounded than last season I guess. Kulindwa is a fun regional talent, although I would have expected some interest in the two nice Kenyan talents as well
Seboka in theory doesn't do much, but it has to be said he was an 'amazing' FA signing for us in our first season. Scored around 50 points I think (it's something ), and won stage 3 and points in Trentinto as well as the KoM in Andorra
The streets will never forget his epic win in Trentino. I hope he does sth similar for you.
@Nemolito
I'm not sure how well I've planned Zariff, but he should have plenty of support in most races.
I would have liked a few more prologues for Schomber, but he will get to ride all of the races we participate in where there is one. Excited to see how many wins he can take.
I had both Kipruto and Moiruri on my radar, but it wasn't to be this window. Hopefully they will join our ranks at some point of their career
50 points would be awesome from Seboka! He's more than welcome to hunt KoM in Andorra again this season.
Love to see Granigan playing the leadout role, that was what I had in mind when I developed him. Although maybe more as a first lead out than last man role he plays for you. Not a lot of other support there so he is going to have some work to do. Fingers crossed it works out.
@Ulrich Ulriksen
Granigan has a lot of work ahead of him in TOME, but for most of the races during the season Zariff should have sufficient support.
Initially I planned different schedules for Zariff and Page, but I ended up sending them to a lot of the same races. Barbari will also work as lead out man throughout the season.
For many of the flat races Mundle will be there to chase breakaways as well, and once or twice Nikiema might even be a part of the roster.
Time will tell if Zariff performs under these conditions
Time to present the roster for our final two goal races.
Tour of Eritrea - top 10
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
SP
AC
FG
DH
Robin Carpenter
67
76
76
72
71
73
66
72
72
69
Martin Laas
67
74
76
68
73
73
67
76
68
57
Matala Seboka
61
80
62
63
70
73
52
67
75
84
Andrea Manfredi
69
78
65
68
73
72
62
73
77
73
Fabio Aru
65
76
72
71
72
73
54
67
54
68
Nawuti Liphongyu
67
74
71
71
70
72
57
61
67
62
Martinos Moutsios
71
61
62
71
70
65
66
72
70
66
Aurelien De Comarmond
68
62
68
67
70
67
68
69
62
63
I haven't looked at the competition yet, but it's probably going to be very difficult. Carpenter is our designated captain, but maybe Seboka or Manfredi gets to join a breakaway on the final stage if enough time is lost on the more hilly second stage?
Laas, Aru and Liphongyu are there to support the beforementioned riders, and Moutsios and De Comarmond are once again mainly here to gain experience.
Int. Osterreich Rundfahrt - Win
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
SP
AC
FG
DH
Bakhtiyar Kozhatayev
74
77
74
72
71
75
71
52
69
62
74
Robin Carpenter
67
76
76
68
72
71
73
66
72
72
69
Matala Seboka
61
80
62
53
63
70
73
52
67
75
84
Willie Smit
72
69
75
69
76
72
71
68
74
81
67
Andrea Manfredi
69
78
65
65
68
73
72
62
73
77
73
Fabio Aru
65
76
72
62
71
72
73
54
67
54
68
Adel Barbari
71
62
63
68
70
69
78
76
79
76
62
Metkel Kiflay
73
62
67
75
71
68
66
65
67
63
71
This goal is - like TOME - pretty much impossible. Hopefully Kozhatayev has a small chance due to the time trial on the final stage.
Carpenter, Seboka, Manfredi and Aru are mainly here to provide support when the road goes up.
Smit, Barbari and Kiflay are also here to support, but could get the opportunity to chase a stage each. None of them should be favorites, but there might be less competition in their areas of expertise which could enable one of them to secure some kind of result.
Last year we were aiming to achieve two out of five goals, but the sponsors had to settle with one at the end of the season.
This year the goals are tougher, but the team should also be stronger. Representatives from Simba Cement & Tanga Fresh has promised me that they will be satisfied if we can achieve one out of five goals. Therefore, I have analyzed our chances, and this is my conclusion:
Coppa Placci
Top-5
30 %
Tour of the Middle East
Win
1 %
Tour of Eritrea
Top-10
10 %
Int. Osterreich Rundfahrt
Win
1 %
Team Standings
Top-5
40 %
According to my calculations, the percentages above should leave us with approximately 60 % chance of completing at least one goal, 15 % chance of completing two or more goals, and less than 5 % chance of completing at least three goals.
Spoiler
Okay, okay. Copilot may have been used to calculate the probabilities.
And the calculations are based on my estimation, so this could be far from reality. However, now there's something to evaluate on after the season, which is always fun
Inspired by Laurens we've estimated how well our riders will score in the coming season. The 2023 points are taken from across divisions so I think it should be taken lightly.
Our leaders should have plenty of opportunities to score. Schomber is the strongest prologue specialist in CT, and Zariff should be one of the strongest sprinters with decent support. Kozhatayev on the other hand probably won't be a favorite for any race this season due to the strong competition. However, he should also have decent support in most races which should enable him to score some points.
I expect 100-200 points from our leaders.
Free riders
Name
2023 points
Expected points
Page
87
100
Carpenter
125
100
Dennis
115
55
Nikiema
33
65
Page and Carpenter are both strong riders. They shouldn't be top-favorites for any races, but could score well as they will get a few chances as captains themselves. Dennis scored over 100 points last season, and can hopefully score half of that despite his decline. Nikiema will have many opportunities for us this season, and I'm quite certain he will get above 50 points - fingers crossed.
I expect 50-100 points from these guys.
Barbari won't have many opportunities for himself, but his strong acceleration could net him some points, when he finally does get a chance. Kiflay has declined, but I still expect a few points from TT's from him. Manfredi did well for us last season and he could make some suprises, if he gets to join the right breakaways. Lastly, we have Laas who should reach the finish line within the points in the hilly races where Nikiema isn't strong enough and Carpenter is elsewhere.
25-50 points is acceptable with this limited level of freedom.
Domestiques
Name
2023 points
Expected points
Seboka
5
25
Smit
72
50
Liphongyu
32
15
Granigan
35
30
Moutsios
7
5
Comarmond
-
5
Iradukunda
0
0
Aru
44
10
Mundle
111
50
I don't expect much from the domestiques. 5-50 points is the expected range.
Mundle should score a few points, but 50 might be a bit high expectations as he'll ride alot with Zariff. Smit should also have a tough time considering our team composition. Seboka could improve his scoring if the circumstances are right, but time will tell. Liphongyu and Granigan will ride as domestiques all season which will hinder their ability to score points. Same goes for Moutsios, Comarmond, Aru and Iradukunda (stagiare), where I expect even less on an individual level.
Conclusion: the above means we should receive around 1135 points in total. Last season that would have been enough for 8th place, but both 5th and 9th place within 100 points.
I'm sure the estimates are way off the final result, but will it be enough for promotion?
I think your predictions and goals look pretty much correct odds wise. Scheduling matters a ton, but I think Nikiema will be your most likely to overperform - I'd be surprised if he doesn't go over 100. Dennis too in the right races could eclipse your prediction rather easily.
For the goals, I know how much you'd want to take one of those win goals home, but I just don't see a way. I think Tour of Eritrea could go your way and Coppa Placci should fit you all as well.
Overall, I think you improved roster set-up this season and excited to see how your team rides in 2024.
@seancoll
Planning isn’t my strong suit, unfortunately. I would love to see Nikiema score 100+ points! Dennis will have a harder time overperforming my estimate, I think, as Schomber will probably take priority in most races with a prologue, and Dennis' other stats aren’t good enough for top results. Plus, your guys will also affect his scoring, I suppose
I agree with your assessment of my goals and improved roster. However, it seems like the quality of the division has improved overall.
It will be an exciting season for the both of us!
Time to present our roster for the first races of the season.
Gisborne GP
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
ST
RS
SP
AC
FG
DH
Bachirou Nikiema
69
70
77
72
74
70
76
74
71
Martin Laas
67
74
76
68
73
67
76
68
57
Willie Smit
72
69
75
76
72
68
74
81
67
Fabio Aru
65
76
72
71
72
54
67
54
68
Aurelien De Comarmond
68
62
68
67
70
68
69
62
63
Andrea Manfredi
69
78
65
68
73
62
73
77
73
Benedikt Mundle
78
58
64
67
71
58
67
79
71
Nils Schomber
73
54
58
66
76
69
69
65
64
Like in out inaugural season, we'll kick it off in New Zealand.
Nikiema should be our captain, but Laas might see an opportunity to chase a result if the hills become too tough. Smit could also receive some freedom as he has good endurance and a fighting spirit.
The rest are here mainly for support, but that could change depending on the circumstances.
Tour Down Under
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
SP
AC
FG
DH
Bachirou Nikiema
69
70
77
72
74
72
70
76
74
71
Martin Laas
67
74
76
68
73
73
67
76
68
57
Willie Smit
72
69
75
76
72
71
68
74
81
67
Fabio Aru
65
76
72
71
72
73
54
67
54
68
Nawuti Liphongyu
67
74
71
71
70
72
57
61
67
62
Aurelien De Comarmond
68
62
68
67
70
67
68
69
62
63
Noah Granigan
74
58
66
70
74
73
74
76
67
65
Benedikt Mundle
78
58
64
67
71
65
58
67
79
71
We send almost the same team Down Under where we don't have high expectations. Granigan will join the team to provide some kind of fire power in the sprints, but Nikiema should be our clear leader here. Mundle might also take a chance or two to attack in the final kilometers in the stages that suit him.
Nakhon Ratchasima Trophy
Nat.
Name
FL
HI
ST
RS
SP
AC
FG
DH
Nur Aiman Zariff
70
61
71
67
80
80
60
67
Dylan Page
75
66
72
72
78
79
62
55
Adel Barbari
71
63
70
69
76
79
76
62
Nils Schomber
73
58
66
76
69
69
65
64
Martinos Moutsios
71
62
71
70
66
72
70
66
Metkel Kiflay
73
67
71
68
65
67
63
71
This will be the only race during the season where we only send 6 guys. It's due to the clash with Tour Down Under, but that doesn't mean that we don't aim for the win.
Both Page and Barbari are here to deliver Zariff in the sprint. Hopefully, Schomber, Moutsios and Kiflay are capable of keeping a breakaway in check.
Already some races to look forward to with Nikiema in Gisborne and Zariff in Nakhon Also we'll meet in TDU.
Good luck!
Yeah, I think a top-10 in Gisborne and a top-3 in Nakhon would make the races a success for us.
Looking forward to battling against you in TDU! Best of luck to you as well, though I have to admit, your chances with Calmejean look better than our chances
), and won stage 3 and points in Trentinto as well as the KoM in Andorra 
