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[PCT] Carlsberg - Danske Bank p/b Schlumberger
baseballlover312
Transfer Season Round-Up: Part 5 - Overview

All the changes have been detailed, so without further ado, here is Carlsberg - Danske Bank's 2022 roster:

i.imgur.com/ka6tnLR.png


On the surface, not a ton has changed from last year. The two leaders brought in for 2021, Guldhammer and Trentin, will continue to lead on their respective terrains despite having declined in the offseason. For Trentin, a lean PCT cobbles field means he will still have a chance to compete near the top at times. For Guldhammer, a very strong climber and stage racer cohort in PCT means he cannot be relied on for anywhere close to his over 600 points last year- half of that may be closer to the expectation.

Asbjorn Kragh Andersen will look to pick up where he left off last year in the sprints, once again as the primary leader. He cannot be expected to finish 14th place in the division again, but the team hopes he will remains one of the better sprinters around. Once again, Carlsberg refuse to field a leadout train for AKA, as that absence was never a problem last year. Sebastian Lander will act as the team's sole other sprinter, riding an entirely different calendar from AKA.

The big changes are on the hills. The addition of Kristian Haugaard Jensen and the training of Alex Aranburu have pushed hilly terrain from a complete black hole to a relative focus for Carlsberg. Aranburu and Haugaard will tend to ride separate calendars when possible, but their support will be quite weak. Kasper Asgreen remains the only true puncheur domestique available, though some of the team's versatile domestiques aren't opposed to hilly classics.

The team sees four of its talents graduate to full service this year. Most notable among them is Lennard Kamna, who the team has big plans for already as a leader in goal races this year. His climbing ability makes his time trialing specialty even more valuable, and the team sees a lot of opportunities across the calendar to capitalize on this niche. He should be motivated, as it's probably his own training money at stake in these races.

There's definitely a certain kind of youth movement going on at Carlsberg now, though you won't see it in newly signed talents, who besides Skjelmose are few and unremarkable. Nevertheless, Kamna's graduation and Aranburu's training have put younger riders in the spotlight, and Gregaard, Belevics, and Resell will all slot into major roles as superdomestiques and secondary scorers. All told, Carlsberg only have 5 riders aged 30 or older, and no rider with an OVL under 76 is older than 28. The young core of domestiques has been properly assembled.

Overall, we see a team that is somewhat caught in between its goals here. They will have leaders for all their race days, but none good enough to really excel in PCT. That strategy of breadth is one that hurt them in the 2017-2019 era, and they will not want to repeat that. Given that their leaders are at least stronger now than they were then, they should probably avoid relegation this time. They don't have enough holes to truly collapse.

But beyond that, the setup is a little less clear. The signing of Skjelmose and the failure to sign another superstar made promotion an impossibility. But if they do manage to finish mid table, as they hope, they are then in a similar situation to this offseason, except that a strategy of keeping Guldhammer and Trentin around again will be completely untenable after another decline. At least they'll have a chance this season to see which of their young riders will be able to step up going forward.

Thank you for reading our coverage of this transfer season, and stay tuned for our in-season coverage soon!

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Posted on 29-11-2022 23:48
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Eden95
I wouldn't be so sure about promotion being an impossibility at all. Investing massively in hills is the best thing you could have done considering how weak the PCT puncheur department is this season. - Jensen is now easily a top-5 puncheur in the division and Aranburu as a sort of Beltran-lite will have plenty of race days he can score well in.

Apart from that, being able to score on any terrain is a huge advantage. Your team reminds me of one that heine would have constructed, strong all round, but no 'top' rider. I think you'll be floating around the promotion spots all season at the very least.
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Fabianski
I don't really know what to think of your roster. To me, it surely doesn't look like a team being in relegation danger, that's probably most important this year.
But both Guldhammer and Trentin having declined, your primary leaders in mountains and on cobbles got weaker. While not that much of an issue on cobbles due to the division's overall quality dropping, stage races will be really packed this year.
Which is the reason why I'm not so sure about how well Kamna can do this year. He's a great TTer and a future stage race star for sure, but will the engine give a 77Mo rider enough credit to position him well in a race with 20 or so 79+ climbers? If it happens, he could be a massive scorer in TT-heavy races!
For the hills, you've got two completely different leaders, which should be perfect. KHJ is perfect for short and steep finishes, while Aranburu covers the tough hilly races. Lack of support could be an issue, as you write, but if planned well, they should score good points.
AKA had an awesome season last year - let's see if that was a one-off, or if PCM20 really likes him - before moving on to the next version in 2023 ^^ I guess if he gets 2/3 of last year's point, you'd still call it a successful season.

Otherwise, I like Olesen's versatility. Your cobbles helpers are decent on the hills as well, which could be crucial for the tougher races. And in terms of TTT setup, your teams somewhat reminds me of mine - two good TTers, then a bit of a drop in quality. But surely solid enough to not completely lose a tour in a TTT stage.

Should be a fun season for you - especially also having one of the most exciting talents on board! Good luck!
 
Nemolito
With a leader on every terrain you should indeed hopefully be safe while also developing the next Danish top talent. Love the Aranburu training. If he does well, maybe I need to come knocking on your door next season, you'll need some Kämna training money then Grin
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redordead
At worst this should be a rock solid season for you, with no fear of relegation.

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baseballlover312
Eden95 wrote:
I wouldn't be so sure about promotion being an impossibility at all. Investing massively in hills is the best thing you could have done considering how weak the PCT puncheur department is this season. - Jensen is now easily a top-5 puncheur in the division and Aranburu as a sort of Beltran-lite will have plenty of race days he can score well in.

Apart from that, being able to score on any terrain is a huge advantage. Your team reminds me of one that heine would have constructed, strong all round, but no 'top' rider. I think you'll be floating around the promotion spots all season at the very least.


That's pretty much how I felt about it. Jensen made sense from the beginning as I wanted a puncheur anyway. But looking at the shift in focuses at the PCT level this year, I'm especially happy with it. That shift also directed my Aranburu training a bit. I definitely think I've ended up with focuses on the right terrains given how stage racer heavy PCT is now. But then again, I avoided hills last year when that was a divisional strength, and that strategy didn't save me or anything.

Fitting that my team is one Heine would have constructed. Not only because he was one of my favorite managers to talk to and deal with, but because two of my leaders are still guys I bought from him last year. Pfft

I hope you're right about potential promotion obviously , but I'd be very satisfied with a top half finish I think.

Fabianski wrote:
I don't really know what to think of your roster. To me, it surely doesn't look like a team being in relegation danger, that's probably most important this year.
But both Guldhammer and Trentin having declined, your primary leaders in mountains and on cobbles got weaker. While not that much of an issue on cobbles due to the division's overall quality dropping, stage races will be really packed this year.
Which is the reason why I'm not so sure about how well Kamna can do this year. He's a great TTer and a future stage race star for sure, but will the engine give a 77Mo rider enough credit to position him well in a race with 20 or so 79+ climbers? If it happens, he could be a massive scorer in TT-heavy races!
For the hills, you've got two completely different leaders, which should be perfect. KHJ is perfect for short and steep finishes, while Aranburu covers the tough hilly races. Lack of support could be an issue, as you write, but if planned well, they should score good points.
AKA had an awesome season last year - let's see if that was a one-off, or if PCM20 really likes him - before moving on to the next version in 2023 ^^ I guess if he gets 2/3 of last year's point, you'd still call it a successful season.

Otherwise, I like Olesen's versatility. Your cobbles helpers are decent on the hills as well, which could be crucial for the tougher races. And in terms of TTT setup, your teams somewhat reminds me of mine - two good TTers, then a bit of a drop in quality. But surely solid enough to not completely lose a tour in a TTT stage.

Should be a fun season for you - especially also having one of the most exciting talents on board! Good luck!


Without revealing too much about his exact calendar, I will say this about Kamna. I envision him as a time trialist for this year. One who can get over bumps better than most, but ultimately a time trialist. So I don't necessarily see him running into too many 79+ climbers on his calendar, at least in races where that distinction is especially meaningful. There's a niche I hope to exploit with him, and I think there are some opportunities for that.

To go with that, I'm effectively giving up on traditional stage races (2-3 Mtn stages and a TT) this year given the competition in PCT. Guldhammer will soak up all the mountain race days we have, but I can't expect much from him. Which, given that he's being paid 300k still, maybe isn't the best use of our funds then. But I'm not the smartest manager. Pfft

I think you're right that it should at least be an exciting year for me, having someone to root for on all terrains. Beyond that, I'll just hope for the best.

Nemolito wrote:
With a leader on every terrain you should indeed hopefully be safe while also developing the next Danish top talent. Love the Aranburu training. If he does well, maybe I need to come knocking on your door next season, you'll need some Kämna training money then Grin


Relegation while I'm developing Skjelmose might be the worst possible outcome, so yes, hopeful to avoid that. Glad you like the Aranburu training at least. Grin

redordead wrote:
At worst this should be a rock solid season for you, with no fear of relegation.


Hope you're right about that. As long as we survive, we can always figure out how to do it again next year. Pfft
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redordead
baseballlover312 wrote:
redordead wrote:
At worst this should be a rock solid season for you, with no fear of relegation.


Hope you're right about that. As long as we survive, we can always figure out how to do it again next year. Pfft

Nevermind what I said before, I'll put out a mini PCT preview later anyway Wink

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