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USA Pro Cycling Challenge Discussion
Ulrich Ulriksen
Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Can I rephrase the question to "Do you get partial credit on a goal if your team makes zero effort to accomplish it?"

It is possible that there a lot of sprinters and we haven't hit the lottery - like Bennett who didn't try yesterday but got a leadout today. So fingers crossed

In defense of the AI a race with 3 flat stages and then a 5km prolouge is not really something that Cyanide would be worried about modeling.

I went and looked at Qatar which is the other race with a similar profile. In the first stage Fabianski noted "But it's an even bigger disappointment for Salem Kemboi and Bryan Coquard, who finish 14th and 15th," They were the two best PRL riders among the sprinters and their finish was almost identical to S1 Scully and Keough. On the other hand Coquard won Stage 3, so maybe he had fallen further enough behind to no longer be a GC guy at that point or it was just the sprinter roulette. So hope for Keough.

I am not changing strategy, I have a US rider on a US team with a US sponsor riding a race he is perfectly suited for that starts in the sponsor's home city - he will be back next year to beat his head against the wall (maybe minus the win goal).
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MacC
Bennett went from 1st to 14th on final stage last year so don't have high hopes but he has been trained in prologue, up a whole point to 58 which I'm sure will help....won't it?

Thanks for report, good to get some value out of the sprints
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Nemolito
Nemolito wrote:
Damn Guillén, another fourth place, some nice stuff! Ruiz trying to be in the break two days in a row and failing as many times is a pity, but I'm sure next year he'll be more successful with 73 flat Smile


Same what I said yesterday but I meant today instead of next year for Ruiz! Very nice to see him take white for one day, and of course great to see Guillén in fourth for three stages in a row, I'm sure Fabianski agrees Wink

Obviously he will frop heavily in the tt, but that's no problem at all, it's already amazing to have him do this stuff, with a second or third in green as well tomorrow normally. Now I just have to hope for Sterbini to have a good day and finish as high as possible. Also hoping both Keough and Scully have a good day to make up for their sprinting inactivity.

I guess I wasted four Baugnies RD's coming here, but that's life.

Thank you for the report, red!
 
cunego59
Good lord what a terrible race we're having. Absolutely desastrous performance by our whole team with the poor sprint setup and Selig's complete inability to follow through. Unfortunate.
 
fjhoekie
Finally I have a sprinter who can really win stuff every now and then! Great effort from Lutsyshyn, and a great place to start the epilogue from!
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AbhishekLFC
Why did we come here? Predicting Dumoulin 15th place in the Epilogue!

Thanks for the reports redordead Smile
 
aidanvn13
So, with no sprinter anywhere close among the favourites you'd expect us to go in the breaks, right? Right...? At least I'm not the manager of AKA or Keough - would be pulling my hair out! For the latter, PCM seems to think that because he is an overall favourite he needs to be protected and shouldn't sprint. At all.

Would like a top 10 overall from this race to make it worthwhile, but given how prologues are handled I'm not too hopeful.
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baseballlover312
Well, I said that the best case scenario was that we get lucky result wise in 1/3 sprint stages, and that's exactly what happened, so no complaints today. This is about all I could hope for. Somewhat ironically, our lucky stage comes when one of our best flat domestiques goes in a very unsuccessful breakaway. Figures.

Of course, after failing the first two stages, one podium still only puts us in 9th on GC. I have no idea how the final epilogue will play out, so we could end up anywhere around that. In theory we should gain on a few guys, but at 5 km that doesn't mean much. It could be completely random, or it could be decently well sorted. Either way, I reckon that gaps will be very small and only really matter for people a few seconds apart.

I think the weirdest thing is that Pelucchi still sprinted in yellow, and I guess good on him that he did. Even with the prologue stat deficit he should be the overall favorite now I think. Guess that's a dent in the curse theory.

Very sorry for Ulrich though. I'd be absolutely livid if I were him. At least Scully and AKA have taken some bonus seconds today Keough has just been horrendous and completely wasted what should be a perfect GC opportunity. Sad
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Fabianski
A 5th place on its own is an acceptable one, but when it's the best out of three sprint stages that still means it was a really bad race so far for Scully. Not nearly as bad as for Keough, of course, who has just been ridiculously ignored by PCM. At least AKA got a good result - I would of course have hoped to see Scully up there Wink

The current GC position - 11th - looks like it might be possible to limit the damage with a decent epilogue result. The overall scoring probably won't get anywhere close to where I hoped it to be, but well, those races happen...

And of course I'm happy to see Guillén do so well (by the way, he lost more than a minute on the final day last year), but I'm still wondering why he showed absolutely nothing a year ago. And to see him perform so consistently makes me wonder why stronger sprinters (on paper) don't... But that's PCM illogicality, I guess ^^
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
Nice to see we have done a great job protecting our leader so that he is first among all the riders who took no bonus seconds. Given that and the way the team rode I think the conclusion PCM treated him as a non-sprinting GC favorite is right.

Interesting that Scully did start sprinting, in a not very effective way, after ignoring the first stage just as Coquard did in Qatar. So if it is a GC favorites don't sprint rule it is flexible rule - just as Peluchi sprinted which seems to violate the Yellow Jersey curse.

Hopefully Keough gets some reasonable prolouge luck and we get something out of this race. This is the first goal failure in McCormick's illustrious history. That was always likely since winning, even if he sprinted, was by no means certain but a little sad to go out with a whimper.

Leaves me with a tough choice for next year, think i will lobby to turn this into a mountain race. Thanks for the support and the reports.
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aidanvn13
Okay, so I have the 2nd, 4th, and 10th best riders on paper. Yet the best we manage is an 11th? Come on Rolling Eyes
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Nemolito
aidanvn13 wrote:
Okay, so I have the 2nd, 4th, and 10th best riders on paper. Yet the best we manage is an 11th? Come on Rolling Eyes


Pfft, amateur, Sterbini not even top-25 GC and barely top-20 in stage 4 Pfft A 5 km prologue is way less random than a 2 km one, but a bad day and some bad luck is unfortunately still punished hard in races such as these. I guess this time I was on the very bad side of the luck.

Can't blame Guillén for losing his GC position, knew it was going to happen. Three fourth places and a second in the battle for green are better than wat I could have expected. Although it brought me a lot of joy, it unfortunately doesn't bring many points Pfft Nice to see Hayter score a point by finishing fourth in the U25 Smile

Thanks for the reports, red, you really did a tremendous job in MG July, iirc you did 20+ races, time for you to enjoy a cold beer Grin
 
MacC
Richardson reminding me he exists. I feel very sorry for those with favorites here who didn't sprint.

Wonder if it is something that can be edited before a stage?
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hillis91
Did not see that coming, but i'll take that 7 days a week! Grin
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AbhishekLFC
'Best' 5th place for ITT for Dumoulin. Henttala kind of swooped in under the radar with a Top 10 on the stage. Best GC result for him. So it turned out better than how much I underplayed it. Still not enough! Wish my sprinter showed up...

Congrats to krisa and thanks for the great reports redordead Smile
 
baseballlover312
Looks like AKA forgot to take his prologue state to work today...

Still good enough to move up to 6th thanks to the quality of guys ahead, so I probably shouldn't complain, but he was so close to a top 5 and easily good enough to have made it onto the podium with a good day. His good days are just too rare.

Congrats to Krisa on a tremendous performance by Pelucchi. Congrats also to Ulrich for the stage and Fabianski for the GC push. If your guys had sprinted anywhere near their capability, they'd be 1-2 in GC after today. So congrats with commiserations added to it I guess.

And thank you so much to redordead for the insane reporting job you've been doing recently!
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Fabianski
Scully is the first loser in both stage and GC by close to nothing - but this definitely doesn't feel like losing anything, on the contrary. I was hoping for a GC Top 5, given that there were quite a lot of weak TTers ahead, but a podium seemed to be unrealistic. He proved me wrong, which is great to see.

In the end, 2nd place feels right, but how he arrived there doesn't really. Losing the GC to Keough would have been expected, but definitely not to Pelucchi. But the Italian was really consistent and definitely deserves that win, congrats! Congrats and commiserations to McCormick, who at least got a stage win and a Top 5, but we all agree that Keough should have finished on the podium in this race. Feeling sorry for AKA as well; I expected it to be a much closer race between him and Scully, but he obviously had some horrible legs today.

And thanks for the reports to redordead; as the others mentioned, you're really doing a crazy job lately! I guess you must have shaken your head at the AI as often as I did in Qatar, but well...

I don't know if it would help riders like Keough or Scully (who was simply lucky to get 5th yesterday) to add a huge mountain stage at the end, which is never run. This might basically fool PCM into thinking that high PRL-sprinters are no GC favorites, hence simply treating them as stage favorites. It would be cool to do some testing on exactly the same startlist, a few times with the same profiles (to see if Keough still decides to sprint now or then), and then just with a mountain stage in the end (but stopping the race after 4 stages).
Or turn the entire race into a mountain race, as Ullrich suggested - at least once McNulty is ready Wink
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
Well that is about as good as it could have gone. A stage win and 5th on the GC aren't terrible. If he had sprinted maybe that win goal was more realistic than I thought on the other hand he didn't have to have that good a last stage. As AKA and others proved, it can go wrong.

I like the adding the mountain stage idea, although I worry that would cause some other weird behavior in the chasing. Something to play with

Congrats to Krisa and thanks again for the reports.
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AbhishekLFC
Wonder why Van der Sanden didn't sprint then Pfft
 
aidanvn13
baseballlover312 wrote:
I think the weirdest thing is that Pelucchi still sprinted in yellow, and I guess good on him that he did. Even with the prologue stat deficit he should be the overall favorite now I think. Guess that's a dent in the curse theory.


I think the essence of the problem is that as soon as an overall contender is in yellow, the passive defensive role takes over all other roles (like sprinting).

You could say that due to his low prologue stat the game doesn't see him as a genuine contender for the overall win, hence he still competes for sprints.
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