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Amstel Gold Race - Discussion
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 02-02-2021 08:25
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Domestique
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 Amstel Gold Race
Welcome to Holland for the fourteenth edition already of the Amstel Gold Race! Three former winners are at the start, including last year’s winner  Ponzi, who will try to win his fifth AGR in six years.  Hagen on the other hand hopes to complete his AGR hattrick after winning two editions in 2011 and 2013. The other former winner at the start is  Sagan, winner of the 2017 edition. 260 kilometres with a lot of hills and of course the famous Cauberg as – probably – the deciding factor. A lot of classy puncheurs have made the trip here, let’s have a look at what should be the best riders of tomorrow’s race.
| MTN | HIL | STA | RES | SPR | ACC |  De Bie | 71 | 84 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 75 | | Hagen | 69 | 84 | 80 | 73 | 72 | 78 | | Sagan | 74 | 83 | 78 | 74 | 73 | 76 | | Ponzi | 72 | 83 | 76 | 71 | 75 | 79 |  Kinoshita | 72 | 83 | 80 | 77 | 68 | 77 |  Lutsenko | 73 | 83 | 76 | 73 | 72 | 81 |  Skujins | 70 | 83 | 80 | 77 | 68 | 76 |  Mohoric | 71 | 83 | 78 | 72 | 67 | 77 |  Van Garderen | 72 | 82 | 78 | 75 | 70 | 79 |  Bakelants | 73 | 82 | 78 | 75 | 71 | 75 |  Kwiatkowski | 78 | 81 | 74 | 76 | 67 | 75 |  Beltran | 79 | 81 | 73 | 72 | 66 | 76 |  Koretzky | 71 | 81 | 77 | 70 | 71 | 79 |  McCarthy | 67 | 81 | 80 | 75 | 65 | 74 | | Gastauer | 70 | 81 | 77 | 69 | 66 | 75 |  Demare | 67 | 80 | 75 | 72 | 82 | 81 |  Vakoc | 71 | 80 | 75 | 71 | 71 | 74 |  Boswell | 71 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 65 | 76 |  Jensen | 70 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 66 | 76 |  Vogt | 62 | 80 | 78 | 71 | 62 | 63 |
Where to start? That’s a lot of class (and salary) in one table. Former winner Hagen and De Bie should be the best puncheurs in theory, but unfortunately for them theory and practice are a different thing. Nevertheless, they will still be considered the top favourites by many fans and other riders, who’ll be looking for their wheel in the peloton tomorrow.
The riders who should be most apt to challenge the big two tomorrow are Sagan, Ponzi, Kinoshita, Lutsenko, Skujins, Mohoric, Van Garderen and Bakelants. Ponzi might even have more riders looking at him than any other rider in the peloton, having won four of the last five Amstel editions. He has already done some nice things this season as well, so grabbing a fifth win here won’t be the biggest surprise. As mentioned in the introduction, Sagan will also be looking for the win, after being the only one able to put his name in between all those Ponzi’s on the AGR winner’s list. Kinoshita, Lutsenko, Skujins and Mohoric should also be aiming for a win, as the difference in capacities between them and the big favourites are not big at all. Van Garderen and Bakelants might not be as world class at the other names mentioned above, but anyone underestimating those two and letting them go on for example the Cauberg will probably not see them back until the finish line.
Three more interesting names on the favourite’s list are Kwiatkowski, Beltran and Demare. The former two are without a doubt the best climbers on the list, which can always be a very big advantage depending on how the race goes. Demare is not as great a puncheur as the likes of Hagen and De Bie, but even my mother knows you cannot have him with you if you’re nearing the finish line.
If you like tables and lists, I have some good news for you. Below is the list of outsiders and strong domestiques who have also been put on the plane to Holland to score as many points as possible for their teams.
| MTN | HIL | STA | RES | SPR | ACC |  Formolo | 79 | 79 | 76 | 76 | 69 | 71 | | Reichenbach | 73 | 79 | 76 | 69 | 63 | 69 | | Bystrom | 68 | 79 | 75 | 72 | 68 | 76 | | Chernetskiy | 71 | 79 | 80 | 69 | 63 | 71 | | Gerts | 66 | 78 | 76 | 80 | 72 | 70 |  Preidler | 80 | 78 | 71 | 77 | 50 | 69 | | Gidich | 75 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 62 | 74 |  Teuns | 75 | 78 | 73 | 73 | 66 | 72 | | Bellis | 68 | 78 | 80 | 71 | 74 | 75 | | Serry | 75 | 78 | 71 | 70 | 62 | 69 | | MĂĽller | 64 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 65 | 70 | | Talansky | 79 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 59 | 69 | | Schlegel | 76 | 77 | 71 | 74 | 64 | 75 | | Azman | 76 | 77 | 69 | 72 | 65 | 75 | | Zardini | 76 | 77 | 70 | 66 | 72 | 68 | | Sepulveda | 75 | 77 | 74 | 73 | 70 | 73 | | Calmejane | 71 | 77 | 73 | 76 | 72 | 76 | | Kratochvila | 76 | 77 | 70 | 68 | 53 | 64 | | Van Niekerk | 73 | 77 | 72 | 75 | 63 | 74 | | Zakarin | 73 | 77 | 74 | 73 | 65 | 73 | | Furdi | 71 | 77 | 76 | 73 | 69 | 72 | | Tratnik | 73 | 77 | 74 | 75 | 61 | 70 | | Mager | 74 | 77 | 68 | 70 | 60 | 71 |
The most important names here, according to this reporter’s humble opinion, are Formolo, Gerts and Preidler. While Formolo and Preidler should both be great all-rounders, the Austrian has been far from successful this season. Gerts has come here as a domestique. Nevertheless, the Dutchman has shown in the past that he’s not too afraid to go for a top-10 place in similar classics himself, and riding in his own country will definitely give him a mental boost!
The only thing left for me to do is to share the startlist, the only thing left for the riders to do is to win the Amstel Gold Race!
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 02-02-2021 08:29
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Directeur Sportif
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Thanks for the preview. Cheering for De Bie and Hagen, since my team lineup is hopeless anyway. Just asking for a breakaway appearance to show our colors for a while. Probably not a race, where you can pray for an upset breakaway win though 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 02-02-2021 08:30
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 7528
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Please Matej, do well here!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 02-02-2021 08:35
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9485
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Cheering for Kinoshita just to see a PCT legend do it in the top class too. Obviously Skujins and Matej as usual, and would be amazing to see loan-out Higuita in a breakaway in his first PT race!
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| matt17br |
Posted on 02-02-2021 08:52
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10447
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Let's see if the Ardennes are kind to us. Not expecting anything since we're not supposed to shine in hilly races, but even a surprise top 10 in any of the next 3 races would be very welcome. Thanks for the preview Nemo!
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 02-02-2021 09:29
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2062
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Preidler just can't escape from Nemolito and his reports 
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 12-04-2021 16:53
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| roturn |
Posted on 02-02-2021 09:37
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Team Manager
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Hopefully De Bie showing up to his 84 hill this Ardennes Week!
Really need the points from him as the last couple races moved me under the relegation line and those 3 classics are some of the most important all year for his schedule!
Podium must be the absolute minimum goal here. Seeing how Wallonie ended for him as 8th, it wasn`t a good preperation race obviously, but things can only get better. |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 02-02-2021 09:50
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2138
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My expectations for AGR are quite low. The hills are too short for Formolo's skillset and the list of riders that are more explosive than him is long. Only if he hits a form peak we can hope for top 10.
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| knockout |
Posted on 02-02-2021 10:50
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Team Leader
Posts: 6020
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Cant wait to see the Ardennes week start. Only Skujins here with Lopez joining him later for the rest of the week. I want to see a top 5 result but more is possible as well.
Outside of my own team I'm mostly looking at the relegation fight. Lots of teams in the bottom half of the ranking have big hopes for the hills to save them so De Bie, Kinoshita, Lutsenko, etc will all fight for very important big points for their teams.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters!
And To All Who Organize Something On Daily As Well!
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| SotD |
Posted on 02-02-2021 10:50
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World Champion
Posts: 10481
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Koretzky has a really shabby history in Amstel Gold Race, with last seasons 9th place easily being his best result ever.
Other than that:
2014 99th
2015 25th
2016 39th
2017 29th
2018 20th
So I'm just crossing my fingers he can do something similar to last season. On paper a good backup from van Niekerk and Budyak (Both 77HI and 73MO). Unfortunately both have shown absolutely nothing all season!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 02-02-2021 10:56
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2268
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Hope we can get someone in the break. Otherwise not much in it for us.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 02-02-2021 16:21
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World Champion
Posts: 13035
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Experience has thought me not to expect anything form Boswell.
Maybe Gerts can pull off some of his magic. Of the 3 Ardennes races, I think AGR suits him the best anyway because of the shorter climbs.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 02-02-2021 16:25
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World Champion
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jandal7 wrote:
Cheering for Kinoshita just to see a PCT legend do it in the top class too. Obviously Skujins and Matej as usual, and would be amazing to see loan-out Higuita in a breakaway in his first PT race!
Appreciate the support! 
After what I thought was a great Giro, the points said otherwise, so now I need Kinoshita to have a great Ardennes, starting here. I think this one will probably go down to the sprinter-puncheurs more though. I've had punchy sprinter types win this one multiple occasions in my own playthroughs with real life dbs.
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| ember |
Posted on 02-02-2021 22:04
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Team Leader
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Excited for this one after Kwiatkowski's win in GP Wallonie. That definitely showed he's capable of doing great things if given a good daily form. He'll obviously need that here, as that can hopefully see him do a top 10 finish. |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 03-02-2021 02:09
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2134
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My favourite race of the Ardennes classics; used to have a lot of fun with Trofimov battling Ponzi (Good Energy/rjc_43). Nowadays I only can hope for a Top-10.
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| redordead |
Posted on 03-02-2021 08:46
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Sprinter
Posts: 1814
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Why does Beltran have to waste maybe his best performance of the season in a race that doesn't even matter 
I don't see a single reason why this race is better suited to him than Wallonie, but it is what it is.
Great to see Lutsenko win, he was due a victory. Congrats Bikex 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej PogaÄŤar
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| tastasol |
Posted on 03-02-2021 08:49
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Small Tour Specialist
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I'm certainly not expecting much from 75 hill riders, but would be cool if they tried to get in the break or at least do something else than being among the first one dropping off (again). Hope for better performances in FW and LBL (but not expecting it).
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| roturn |
Posted on 03-02-2021 08:52
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Team Manager
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When the best hill rider losing contact with 22km to go...that`s impressive.
Coming back though but then obviously missing energy to beat the others...7th far from expectations but just like his season started and likely will go on.
Congrats King Power. Much needed win. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-02-2021 09:05
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World Champion
Posts: 10481
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Yup, 27th... Sure. Jesus Christ...
81-77-77 with solid backup stats finish
27th Clement Koretzky
81st Aidan van Niekerk
94th Anatoliy Budyak
Way to keep the Giro-feel a live.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 03-02-2021 09:07
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2062
Joined: 09-05-2011
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redordead wrote:
Why does Beltran have to waste maybe his best performance of the season in a race that doesn't even matter
I don't see a single reason why this race is better suited to him than Wallonie, but it is what it is.
Great to see Lutsenko win, he was due a victory. Congrats Bikex
At least he showed up - unlike Preidler, who failed... AGAIN. At least Higuita performed well. And congrats to Bikex.
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