Signore, signori, benvenuti in bella Italia! Welcome to San Lorenzo al Mare, at the Riviera ligure, at this eve of the 2020 Giro d'Italia! Before the race kicks off tomorrow, we'll present you everything you need to know about the course - and of course about the pariticipating riders!
Three exciting weeks of cycling are ahead of us, and besides cobbles, this race contains everything making this sport so beautiful! Of course, first and foremost, the Giro has the reputation of being the most climber-friendly GT - and with six mountain-top and two hill-top finishes, it absolutely does justice to that reputation once again!
While mainly the puncheurs will be looking forward to the first two weeks, the final 7 days - or at least 5/7 - are reserved for the climbers, promising a great spectacle! The sprinters aren't very happy about the course, with just two flat rated stages per week - we'll see in an instant if this has an impact on the sprinter field.
So let's talk about the participants now! We have three former GT winners at the start line, with the most impressive Palmarès definitely belonging to oldie Andy Schleck, having won every GT twice in his career! Simon Spilak has come back to defend his title from 2019; the Slovene has two Tour de France wins to his name as well! And finally we welcome Rein Taaramäe in Italy - we're not sure if it's his first participation ever, but given that his name doesn't appear in any Top 30 list nor in any stage winners list, it is very likely that the reigning Vuelta champion indeed makes his debut here! His goal will be to complete the career GT-slam, having already won Tour de France and Vuelta once each.
Which makes a total of 11 GT wins on the road for the next three weeks. We'll see if any of the former winners can add an additional win to his Palmarès - or if we get a debut winner! Let's take a look at the biggest favorites:
Simon Spilak
GT record
Giro d'Italia: 1 win (2019), 1x 3rd place (2013)
Le Tour de France: 2 wins (2011, 2017), 1x 2nd place (2018), 3x 3rd place (2010, 2014, 2016)
La Vuelta: n/a
Honor to whom honor is due - the defending champion comes first. Unlike Herklotz, his strongest competitor last year, he decided to come back to Italy, this time leading his new team Generali.
Even after his second decline, he still is among the very strongest climbers and puncheurs in this race - there are one better climber and two stronger pure puncheurs at the start line, but he definitely doesn't have to fear anyone. Except for stage 14, the 55 kilometer long time trial. He isn't among the very best in this discipline, which will likely cost him some seconds compared to the next rider we'll present. Will it be too much? Can he recover these in the hills?
Moreover, we cannot use his previous results this year as a hint, as this simply is his first race of the 2020 season! No warm-up, let's directly tackle a GT - let's see how that works out!
In terms of support, he cannot really complain. Talansky - another new signing - will be his lieutenant in both montains and hills. Dyball, Ludvigsson and Brown shouldn't be distanced too quickly in the mountains, either, whereas Rosskopf might provide some help on the hills. But most importantly, Generali bring a very balanced TTT squad, which will surely help to not drop their leader on the first stage, and very likely be worth a good time - the perfect base to start the fight for pink!
Will he defend his title? It seems to be absolutely possible - but especially the guy presented next might cause him some serious headaches!
Rein Taaramäe
GT record
Giro d'Italia: n/a
Le Tour de France: 1 win (2018), 2x 2nd place (2015, 2016)
La Vuelta: 1 win (2019)
The Estonian will likely be Spilak's strongest opponent. Although the reigning Vuelta champion has gone through his first decline as well, he's still among the world's best - and he's the strongest climber making the trip to Italy! Which is somewhat disappointing for THE climber GT, given that none of the 85 MO guys and only one 84 climber is here - but Taaramäe definitely won't be unhappy about this!
But being the strongest climber isn't everything he brings here. While he's "only" in the lower Top 10 in terms of hill climbing, his time trialing skills are still amazing; only Coppel is rated slightly higher, but that might look quite different after two weeks of racing. So he's very likely to gain time on most competitors on this ultra-long ITT stage. And last but not least, his physical stats are among the very best in the peloton, meaning that no stage will be too long or too hard for him. Given the competition, this is a great opportunity for him to complete his GT-slam, winning the only GT he hasn't won so far.
Unlike Spilak, the Estonian does already have quite a few race days in his legs. The start in China wasn't very convincing, though, getting only a 24th place in this hilly classic - not being the team's clear leader, though.
This was clearly different in East Java, where he was among the favorites for the overall win - and left left with a rather disappointing result again. He couldn't keep up with Phinney's winning move, and then finished last of a the group fighting for 2nd, hence going home with a 6th place.
The situation was pretty similar in Pro Hallstatt Classic, where Sicard was just too strong for the rest - but this time, Taaramäe claimed this 2nd place, proving that he still has the legs to dream big!
In Colombia, he definitely made clear which direction his form is taking: upwards! with two stage wins, he easily won the GC of that race, proving that he's ready for what's likely his ultimate challenge this season!
Finally, let's take a look at his team. And unfortunately for him, this may actually be his weakest point. Quintana, Amezawa and Aranburu are all decent climbers for sure (with the latter two being good puncheurs as well), but there might be missing a domestique like Spilak has in Talansky. Plus, the team clearly has a weaker setup than Generali for the first stage, meaning that Taaramäe is likely to lose time in a time trial... Let's see if he can gain back all of this in the mountains or in the long ITT!
The Estonian's mission is clear: Win a GT three years in a row - it would complete his career GT-slam. He has to be the favorite, having the long ITT and mountain superiority as his biggest trump cards. But the favorite doesn't always succeed...
Timofey Kritskiy
GT record
Giro d'Italia: n/a
Le Tour de France: 1x Top 10 (6th, 2016)
La Vuelta: 1x 2nd place (2019)
The Russian is yet another rider who knows how it feels to step on a GT podium, as he did so last year in La Vuelta - finishing runner-up behind... Taaramäe! And when looking at his strengths and weaknesses in more detail, this doesn't come as a surprise. He's slightly weaker than the Estonian in the mountains, on the hills, in the time trials and in his physical stats - the only point where he's clearly inferior is his acceleration, which might make him miss a decisive move. But as long as he can follow someone else's wheel, he's very hard to get rid of. And he really does have everything it takes to get another GT podium, despite having declined as well.
Just like Spilak, Kritskiy hasn't used his race material so far this year, so it will be interesting to see where he stands compared with the competition!
When looking at his team, one quality stands out: time trials! With Yatsevich, Dal Col, Malori, Vorobev and Kritskiy himself, Team Tinkoff bring 5 riders with a TT stat of 79 or more - amazing! Winning the first stage and taking the jersey as early as possible seems to be their goal. However, defending it won't be an easy job; whereas Novikov and probably Sivakov and Rybalkin should be able to support him in the mountains, they don't have a really strong puncheur. This might be their weak point - especially given that their leader isn't the best puncheur, either!
The podium in Spain definitely was a career highlight for the Russian. Can he add a second one? Or even a GT win?
Andrei Amador
GT record
Giro d'Italia: 1x 3rd place (2018)
Le Tour de France: 1x 3rd place (2015)
La Vuelta: 2x Top 10 (6th, 2015; 7th, 2011)
We again step down one climbing level, arriving at 82. Amador is the only representative out of 4 PT riders in this group having come to Italy, representing newly promoted Team UBS. As the others before him, he has already left behind his maximum level, having declined for the second time. Nonetheless, his climbing skills are still very good, and he still handles the TT bike pretty well, too. However, his physical stats definitely aren't what they once were; stamina, recovery and especially resistance are clearly lower than his main competitors'. He's slowly losing his kick, too, and he might be suffering on the hills. But the overall package is still pretty OK - don't rule him out yet!
We might get a hint of his current level from the races he's done so far this year, Paris - Nice and Vuelta a Colombia. In France, he did a good job until day 7, after which he was inside the GC Top 10. He then dropped to 11th on the final day - even behind his domestique Schelling (who hasn't come to Italy). Which his manager found to be rather worrying.
One level down, in PTHC race Vuelta a Colombia, he then took that Top 10 spot in what was his final preparation race. Let's see if the upwards trend continues here in Italy!
He should have decent support in the mountains from Schir and Grigrian, although a top-level domestique is missing here as well. Most of his teammates have pretty similar hilly skills as their leader, meaning nobody can really pull him uphill. This might be where he loses a great final rank - but let's see! At least, he should have a good start, with his team being comparable to Generali in terms of time trial skills.
With his 34 years, this will be pretty much his last shot at a GT podium - and given the rather weak starter field, that's not even impossible!
Jack Haig
GT record
Giro d'Italia: 1x Top 10 (9th, 2019)
Le Tour de France: 2x Top 20 (16th, 2017; 18th, 2018)
La Vuelta: 2x Top 20 (12th, 2019; 13th, 2017)
Now, we reach a group of climbers that is pretty well represented: the 81's. Haig is likely the best rounded of them, so he comes first. The Australian only has one single GT Top 10 to his name (along with a stage win at the Vuelta, back in 2017), but he has trained hard this offseason and definitely belongs to the elite climbers in this race! What makes him be named first in this group are his great ITT skills, where he's just slightly weaker than Taaramäe and Kritskiy. In terms of hill riding, however, he will likely not be able to keep up with Taaramäe and especially Spilak, but given his good physical condition, he won't be easy to drop, either. Plus, he's got a decent acceleration, allowing him to get or close gaps quickly.
Just like Spilak and Kritskiy, Haig hasn't started his season yet. However, unlike the two former, he doesn't come out of the off-season weaker, but rather stronger - even though we didn't have the opportunity yet to compare him pre- and post-training. So this will be the race of truth - and he should definitely be able to improve on his best individual GT finish so far!
The team will try to help him accomplish that mission - especially in the TTT, where Bennelong - Mitchelton has a decent setup, as always. It's probably comparable to Team UBS. In terms of uphill support, Haig can count on Canty and Roe - as we already mentioned for other teams, decent but no super-domestiques. The picture is similar for the hills, where he'll just have to hang on to the best puncheurs!
The question will be how much his training has benefitted him. He's a sure Top 10 contender - or can he even aim for more?
Warren Barguil
GT record
Giro d'Italia: 1x Top 20 (18th, 2016)
Le Tour de France: 2x Top 10 (7th, 2018; 9th, 2019)
La Vuelta: 1x Top 10 (10th, 2019)
Barguil has already three GT Top 10 finishes, and aims to get his first one here in Italy this year. He matches Haig's climbing skills and is even a slightly stronger puncheur. His physical stats are those of a potential GT winner - especially his outstanding recovery, the best in the peloton, must be mentioned. It might allow him to attack in the 3rd and decisive week - something that should well suit him, given his good acceleration.
On the downside, he is clearly the weakest time trialist of the riders presented so far - which might cost him not only seconds, but minutes on those 55km on stage 14. Minutes he will have to recover somewhere - and as said before, the longer the race, the stronger Barguil!
But how strong can we expect him to be? As for the others bar Taaramäe and Amador, he launches his season with this race, so we don't know.
What we do know is the team support he can count on. And this one is about as good as e.g. Spilak's for the TTT, but pretty much underwhelming when it comes down to the mountains. McKenna is the team's strongest climber behind Barguil - nothing against the Irishman, who will be important in the hills - which will likely not be enough to protect the leader in the high mountains. The hill support, however, as we said before, is pretty decent, with the duo McKenna and Schönberger.
How much weight will have this lack of great mountain support? That is one important question. For the rest, Barguil should definitely be up to his task, with a GC Top 5 being absolutely within reach. Or can he even attack the podium?
Rafael Reis
GT record
Giro d'Italia: 1x Top 10 (10th, 2017)
Le Tour de France: 1x Top 30 (21st, 2018)
La Vuelta: n/a
The Portuguese hasn'd had the opportunity of riding many GTs so far, being engaged mostly in lower divisions. Still, he has reached the Top 10 in this race three years ago - and he'll want to do so again! He is very similar to Haig - a little bit weaker on the hills and in ITTs, but even stronger physical stats. His main weakness - not only compared with the Aussie - is his lack of acceleration, where he has the lowest stat of the Top 10 climbers.
Will this missing punch hurt him? The Copenhagen - Malmö TTT didn't really show that, as other skills are important for this race - which he ended in 7th place with his team.
Pro Hallstatt Classic, however, gives us a much better hint. Hopefully for him, this was just an off-day, as he only got 35th place, even behind teammate Lutsenko - a pure puncheur to whom this race was not really well-suited. He then took a break in March, to come here with fresh legs - let's see if this helped!
A look at King Power's lineup gives us quite familiar feelings. Teklehaimanot will provide good support in the mountains, and he's as well the team's best puncheur - meaning they aren't really strong on the hills. The TTT squad is as good as most others, and pretty well-balanced as well. So Reis definitely shouldn't lose the race on day one - probably just a few seconds to the slightly stronger teams.
Reis has got all it takes to get a great GT result. Acceleration isn't the most important skill, and could be compensated with great stamina and good resistance. Can he get a new best individual finish? Or a first GT stage win?
Chen Shikai
GT record
Giro d'Italia: n/a
Le Tour de France: n/a
La Vuelta: 1x Top 30 (27th, 2015)
Being part of a newly promoted team, Shikai's GT history is pretty short, even shorter than Reis'. But his 12th place in last year's PCT individual standings clearly show us what he's capable of! The Chinese is as good a climber as Haig, Barguil and Reis, and he's a strong time trialist as well. However, he's even weaker on the hills than Reis - the weakest in the list so far - which is one thing that could hold him back. The other point being his rather low stamina, which might hurt, given that the Queen Stage in week 3 is more than 230km long!
There's no question about resistance or recovery, though - that's all fine, and this might help him to hold on even when he's tired. But another disadvantage compared to several riders named before is his low acceleration - slightly better than Reis', but still not enough to open gaps. But he's not an attacking rider anyway.
We got a first hint of how his skillset could work on PT level this year in East Java - with PCT participation, however. In a very stacked climber field, he was able to keep up with top climber Madrazo - who was on a very bad day, however, meaning the Chinese finished 14th in both stage and GC. But given that he was "just" racing as Quintana's top domestique, this was actually a promising result!
The only other race for him was Copenhagen - Malmö; as we saw before, this race doesn't tell us much about the skills relevant for the Giro, but a good result is always nice to have. Which isn't exactly the case, as Rakuten Pro Cycling only finished 16th in this race.
As pretty much all other teams so far, Rakuten bring a decent TTT squad, even though the top-notch time trialists are missing here. What is however top-notch is their mountain support; Costagli is himself among the best 20 climbers in this race, and Iino should provide good support as well. For the hills, we won't really repeat ourselves... you know. Nothing spectacular.
How well does Shikai handle the jump up from PCT to PT? Is he ready to lead his team in a GT? And how much will all these hilly stages hurt him?
Andy Schleck
GT record
Giro d'Italia: 2 wins (2015, 2018), 1x 3rd place (2008)
Le Tour de France: 2 wins (2014, 2016), 1x 3rd place (2013)
La Vuelta: 2 wins (2010, 2017), 1x 2nd place (2011)
The legend is back! After having won here two years ago after his first decline, the Luxembourger missed out on the podium by one spot (but 3 minutes) last year, and now, after his 3rd offseason decline, he's come down to Italy again! And amazingly, even now he's still among the Top 10 climbers - although he can't really be compared to the rider he was a few years ago anymore. Especially his stamina has suffered quite a lot, which could be an issue on the longer stages in the 3rd week.
He hasn't ever been among the greatest time trialists anyway, and now he has stepped down to " Barguil - level", meaning he'll likely lose a lot on those 55 individually ridden kilometers. His quality on the hills has suffered as well, where he now just matches Shikai. But something he still likes are sudden accelerations, as surprisingly his punch is still pretty good!
And how does that all work out on the road? Just as Shikai, he had his first race of the season in East Java - and it didn't work out too well. He even finished outside the Top 50, behind three teammates - two of which are present in Italy, too.
Vuelta a Colombia then was his final preparation race. And it confirmed that this winter's decline indeed had an impact, as he only managed to finish 17th - still taking home the team's best result, though.
Just like Shikai, Schleck will have a good deal of support in the high mountains, by compatriots Kirsch and Wirtgen. These two are at the same time the team's strongest puncheurs, trying to make their leader not lose too much time on the hilly stages. Concerning the TTT, EA Vesuvio have two really strong riders in Wirtgen and Jungels, and Kneisky is a decent rider as well. However, the rest of the team rather have Schleck's level or even below - maybe the best strategy to not drop him?
With his 35 years, Schleck is one of the oldest riders still having a PT contract - and he's even still leading a GT squad! What can he do after yet another decline? A final GT podium? A Top 10?
Richard Antonio Carapaz
GT record
Giro d'Italia: 1x Top 20 (20th, 2017)
Le Tour de France: n/a
La Vuelta: n/a
We have arrived at the final rider being presented in detail, as he rounds off the climber's Top 10. The Ecuadorian - just as some others - was mainly riding PCT races recently, therefore not having much of a GT record. He only finished 89th in the PCT individual standings last year, which was a huge disappointment. So it's time to move up again! But even though the climber field isn't as stacked as it could have been, it will be a hard task for him. Rather low ITT and hilly skills don't really favor a great GC result, just like his low stamina.
But well, his main skill is climbing, and he does that well! And with his good resistance, he'll be difficult to drop on the long climbs - except maybe late into the longer stages. But the question is, how fast can he adapt to PT level?
The season opener in China didn't really work out for him - which doesn't come as a big surprise, given that it was a hilly race. Still, if it's an indication of what could happen on similar stages in this Giro, it isn't a positive sign.
He then rode Paris - Nice, where he primarily was on domestique duties for Alarcon. Losing a lot of time on the hilly stages didn't come as a surprise, but at least he got two Top 20 stage results in the mountains.
Pro Hallstatt Classic, his last preparation race, was a disaster for the whole team. Their best man finished 76th, and Carapaz was down on 104th place, losing almost 12 minutes. How did he recover from this no-show? And is he strong enough to lead his team in this GT?
When looking at his support cast, we can see that there's a very similar rider who should provide him some help - Faglum Karlsson. However, the question is if the Swede wouldn't actually be the better leader? Sure, he's one point weaker in climbing, but a slightly better puncheur and time trialist - and has great stamina! We'll see how they handle this situation. TTT-wise, Volvo go an EA Vesuvio-like strategy: a few strong time trialists, then the leader, and some fillers. Let's see how this works out - if the prologue stat kicks in, it could actually go pretty well!
Who will lead the team? That's maybe the main question. The two strongest riders need to help each other - nobody else on the team can actually do something similar to climbing. If they play it out well, they can be a really strong duo, however - worthy of a Top 10?
One of these 10 riders is pretty likely to go home with a GT win in his bag. Or, to be fair, we'll probably have to reduce the list to the first 3 being the top favorites - especially given the lack of puncheur skills of most others. But 21 stages are a lot - and there are still 14 teams who haven't seen their leader in this list. So let's take a look at all those who are assumed to be their team's first choice, along with their best domestiques:
Climbers & domestiques
Rider
Mo
Hi
TT
Sta
Res
Rec
Acc
PL
Dom 1
Mo
Hi
Dom 2
Mo
Hi
Taaramäe
84
77
80
78
79
77
75
78
Quintana
76
71
Amezawa
75
75
Spilak
83
80
75
77
78
75
71
75
Talansky
79
77
Ludvigsson
76
72
Kritskiy
83
74
79
77
75
76
66
78
Novikov
77
72
Rybalkin
75
73
Amador
82
73
76
74
71
74
69
75
Schir
77
72
Grigrian
76
71
Haig
81
74
77
76
75
78
73
77
Canty
75
73
Bayly
74
74
Barguil
81
75
70
77
77
82
75
70
McKenna
74
76
Danacik
72
71
Reis
81
73
76
78
76
78
63
76
Teklehaimanot
77
74
Fung
73
68
Shikai
81
71
76
74
76
78
66
76
Costagli
79
71
Iino
77
73
Schleck
81
71
70
71
76
76
73
69
Kirsch
79
74
Wirtgen
76
74
Carapaz
80
71
72
71
76
77
65
72
Faglum Karlsson
79
73
n/a
Arndt
79
76
56
77
76
72
75
56
Mager
74
77
Niu
74
72
Chiarello
79
75
73
73
74
77
72
71
Vosekalns
78
75
Blums
75
75
Brenes
79
73
69
73
80
70
70
69
n/a
n/a
Bongiorno
79
75
68
77
77
77
69
68
Ioannidis
75
73
Van Niekerk
73
77
Anacona
79
74
66
75
72
74
61
66
Ji
79
74
Campero
78
70
Valls
78
74
71
77
76
76
71
71
Velits
79
72
Carboni
76
75
Karnulin
78
74
70
76
75
77
70
70
Sosnitskiy
78
72
Vervaeke
76
73
Nesset
78
73
69
77
76
74
69
69
Iturria
77
73
Laengen
76
73
Aru
78
74
64
74
75
76
70
64
Majka
76
71
Conti
73
73
Kozhatayev
77
74
72
71
75
71
69
72
Roman
77
75
Bugge
74
75
Salinas
77
73
71
74
74
70
72
71
Martin
75
72
Paez
71
75
Kennaugh
77
70
73
71
70
70
63
72
Crncevic
74
69
Holmes
71
73
Bernal
75
70
74
76
76
77
67
72
Izagirre
74
81
Barthe
71
74
Fedeli
68
72
62
68
67
63
69
64
n/a
n/a
This list might give us a hint at the favorites for the team standings, too - where Generali should definitely be high up! But the rosters of Team UBS, EA Vesuvio and especially Rakuten Pro Cycling look great, too. Or can ISA - Hexacta once again pull off a good result with their depth? We'll see!
And then, we should still give a special mention to Peter Velits, who is the only rider not presented in detail having a GT podium to his name - 2nd place in the Giro d'Italia 2017. This however was before his first decline - now he just went through the third. He'll still be very valuable for his team, no doubt about this!
We can see that both wildcard teams - Polar and Lierse SK - don't bring a leader who will really be able to challenge for the GC, and especially the latter are mainly here for development purposes. The former, however, will definitely have some ambitions for stage wins, as shows the list of puncheurs:
Puncheurs
Rider
Hi
Mo
Res
Acc
Sta
Ftr
Izagirre
81
74
72
64
73
69
McCarthy
81
67
75
74
80
71
Demare
80
67
72
81
75
70
Spilak
80
83
78
71
77
69
Vakoc
80
71
71
74
75
61
Boswell
80
71
73
76
77
72
Bystrom
79
68
72
76
75
78
Taaramäe
77
84
79
75
78
69
Talansky
77
79
76
69
75
63
Van Niekerk
77
73
75
74
72
82
Mager
77
74
70
71
68
68
Izagirre should definitely be around for the first two weeks, and may even be in contention for the GC lead by then - given the few mountain stages and the long ITT. However, he's not really a favorite for stage wins, given his low acceleration. And his sub-par recovery won't help him towards the end of the race - but he's still one of the top puncheurs having made the trip!
The same holds for McCarthy, who can really be seen as a pure puncheur. And he'll be one to watch, especially on the longest stages, given his great stamina. His acceleration and resistance ensure he'll win most duels against Izagirre - but only if he manages to get clear of the next guy.
And that next guy is Demare, who obviously has one goal in this race: the maglia ciclamino, the sprint jersey. Not only is he a great sprinter, as we'll see later - he's also among the best puncheurs. And really no-one of the other hill specialists can match his acceleration or even his sprint speed, meaning he'll be the favorite on quite a lot of hilly stages. It would be a huge disappointment for his manager to not see him in the points jersey by the end of week 2 - and then he'll have to hope for a lot of breakaway wins.
Because if the GC specialists get all those stages, Spilak is likely to get many, many points. And even on longer hills, he should easily leave the Frenchman behind. But most of all, the hills are his great chance to gain time on all of his GC competitors. Others are more likely to win stages, given his rather low acceleration, but he should consistently be on the first spots in the hills!
Vakoc again is a pure puncheur, with some climbing skills however, just as Boswell. Both will try to get some stage wins for their teams, with the former being a better sprinter, and the latter having better acceleration and resistance. But both will need a great game plan if they are to beat especially Demare.
How well does Bystrom handle the jump up from CT to PT, and even in a GT? Slightly weaker on both hills and mountains than the two former riders, his advantage is his great fighter spirit - as sometimes the most daring rider actually gets the win!
Something that Van Niekerk will surely be hoping for as well. The South African is a pretty good climber, and together with his good resistance might be able to keep up with some stronger puncheurs - or even distance them.
Even Taaramäe belongs to the 11 strongest puncheurs in this race, showing why he really is among the top favorites GC-wise. Although he isn't the best hill rider, his acceleration and resistance will surely help him not to lose too much time to the best puncheurs.
Talansky's role is pretty different, as he's Spilak's super-domestique - just making the latter even more dangerous on these stages! The US American will probably not be allowed to go for stage wins on his own, but he's still in this list for completeness.
Which somehow holds as well for Mager. Although he's a decent hybrid rider, the lowest resistance and stamina in this list surely won't help him - and he'll mainly be here to support Demare anyway.
There are still some more stage hunters - remember, we have six flat stages, therefore some sprinters have made the trip as well.
Sprinters
Rider
Spr
Acc
Res
Fl
Rec
Demare
82
81
72
73
80
Kennaugh
82
81
71
77
80
Van Poppel
81
78
71
72
78
Appollonio
81
78
66
74
72
Nizzolo
80
79
67
73
71
Eislers
80
76
76
77
74
Meyer
80
76
65
72
74
Goss
80
75
68
72
76
Afewerki
79
80
70
73
81
Hsu
79
79
70
75
73
Suryadi
79
76
68
71
76
Granjel Cabrera
79
75
69
74
80
This list underlines Demare's status as a clear favorite for the maglia ciclamino. Together with Kennaugh, he should dominate the sprints, as these two are the fastest and have the best acceleration of the whole pack.
And Demare furthermore brings a great team for the sprints, with Aregger as his final leadout and both Cavagna and Sagiv as strong rouleurs for the sprint preparation. By the way, the whole team will be able to support their top-sprinter in either the hills or the sprint or both - which is even true for most!
Kennaugh's slight advantage over the Frenchman might be his clearly higher flat skills. Leadout-wise, he has Major and Clarke with him - but the latter's flat skills and physical values aren't really great for a sprint train. Furthermore, they don't really have any riders to reel in breakaways, so they will have to rely on the other teams.
Van Poppel and Appollonio are the next couple of pretty similar sprinters. Same top speed, same acceleration, with the former having better resistance and the latter being stronger on the flat. The Italian doesn't like long stage races, though. And he won't have a leadout, nor a team that breakaways should be afraid of. This is slightly different for Van Poppel, who has Van der Kooij by his side, and Vermeltfoort to catch some escapees.
Nizzolo, on the other hand will definitely be all alone, as his teammates will focus on supporting Bongiorno or Van Niekerk. And surprisingly pretty much the same holds for Eislers, whose team decided to send only one additional strong flat rider in Naud. It remains to be seen how the Latvian handles his rather low acceleration - but at least he can do really long sprints thanks to great resistance!
Resistance - something that Meyer has not really heard of yet. So it's his job to prove that it isn't as important as they always say. However, as most others, he won't have a lot of help for the sprint preparation. At least, he can count on Wohler for chasing down breakaways, and bringing him into a good position.
Goss' acceleration is even worse - but at least he brings a good sprint team, with Suryadi - on the above list as well - and Gani as his leadouts. They both don't have much of a better acceleration either, so that could actually work. But will it be enough to challenge Demare or Kennaugh?
The same can be asked of Afewerki and Hsu, too. But compared to the three previously named sprinters, they do have a good acceleration, and some decent resistance as well. Both aren't bad on the flat, either.
Furthermore, Afewerki will be looking forward to the third week, given his great recovery - where he's one of the best in the peloton. Leadout-wise, he can count on Kanter, and with Kneisky they have a big flat engine on the team as well. Hsu, on the other hand, will try to make good use of time trialist Viviani for the sprint preparation.
As we said, Suryadi is here as a leadout, whereas Granjel Cabrera again is one of these all-alone sprinters. Positioning will be key for him as well, given his low acceleration and resistance - short, well-timed sprints are a must for him.
And finally, there's that one stage that will likely lead to big time gaps - the ITT on stage 14. Some specialists have come here just for this one stage:
Time trialists
Coppel
81
75
75
69
Taaramäe
80
79
74
77
Yatsevich
80
81
70
67
Dillier
80
77
70
67
Kritskiy
79
75
74
76
Hepburn
79
77
71
72
Viviani
79
77
78
74
Malori
79
73
78
72
Mullen
79
74
75
72
Vorobev
79
71
75
67
Haugard
79
77
72
70
Dal Col
79
72
71
68
Van Winden
79
68
73
72
In a one-day race, Coppel might have been the favorite for this one - but given that the riders will already have 13 stages in their legs - and most pure time trialists don't recover that well - we'll likely have a duel Taaramäe vs Kritskiy for the stage win. Of course, Yatsevich and Dillier shouldn't be ruled out, just as Coppel shouldn't, but experience shows that the GC riders are more likely to get a great stage result here.
Of those listed here, Hepburn and Viviani might have the highest chances to challenge the GC riders, given their good resistance and at least decent recovery. Or will Malori be able to turn his great flat stat into a top result?
What seems to be more likely is that the likes of Haig, Reis or Shikai will finish high up - but let's see!
But while we're talking about time trials, let's take a look at the TTT squads as well! Given the shortness of the TTT, we take for each rider the stronger value between TT and PL. We then take on one hand the average values of the full team, and on the other hand the average of the Top 5 per team. We finally build a weighted average of 1x the whole team and 3x the Top 5 - as everyone counts, but the best riders count more. This gives us the following list:
TTT
Team
Avg. TT all
Avg. TT Top 5
Avg. Weighted
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
76.25
79.20
78.46
King Power
75.75
78.20
77.59
Team UBS
75.75
77.40
76.99
Rakuten Pro Cycling
74.75
77.00
76.44
Generali
75.50
76.40
76.18
Bennelong - Mitchelton
73.38
76.60
75.79
Volvo acc. by Spotify
72.00
76.80
75.60
Moser - Sygic
71.50
75.80
74.73
Aegon - Peroni
73.00
75.00
74.50
Aker - MOT
71.63
75.20
74.31
EA Vesuvio
72.50
74.60
74.08
Gazelle
71.50
73.60
73.08
Polar
71.17
73.00
72.54
cycleYorkshire
69.13
73.60
72.48
Grieg-Maersk
70.38
73.00
72.34
ISA - Hexacta
70.75
72.60
72.14
Festina - OAKA
69.13
72.00
71.28
Indosat Ooredoo
68.75
71.60
70.89
Team Puma - SAP
67.38
72.00
70.84
Isostar - Specialized
68.00
70.60
69.95
eBuddy
67.00
68.80
68.35
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
65.83
67.00
66.71
Evonik - ELKO
64.38
67.20
66.49
Air France - KLM
63.88
66.60
65.92
As we already saw in the GC riders preview, we have many similarly strong teams - Team UBS, Rakuten, Generali, Bennelong or Volvo, but King Power and especially Team Tinkoff stand above the rest. Let's see if it works out this way on the road tomorrow!
At the bottom, Evonik will likely have a hard fight to defend their reputation of being the most TT ignoring team in the world, with several other teams not much stronger or even worse. Especially for Lierse SK, we shouldn't forget that they only bring 6 riders, which is true for Polar as well.
Now, let's quickly take a look at those riders who don't like to ride in the peloton. Some of them will attack on flat stages, some in the mountains, some on the hills - there's someone for each terrain!
Fighters
Rider
Ftr
Fl
Mo
Hi
Edet
84
66
69
76
Van Niekerk
82
69
73
77
Nych
82
76
68
67
Vosekalns
81
66
78
75
Vorobev
81
75
63
65
Wohler
80
77
58
66
Cosnefroy
80
75
68
71
Abreu
79
73
73
73
Bystrom
78
72
68
79
Bayly
78
71
74
74
Naud
78
76
62
73
Kruijswijk
78
77
75
71
Gabburo
78
74
67
74
Van Winden
78
73
52
62
Campenaerts
78
71
54
69
Kosic
78
72
58
66
Finally, let's talk about a category of riders we haven't mentioned yet: the youngsters! We have 43 riders under 25 years at the start line - almost a quarter of the peloton - and let's look at those who should have the best chances of being high up in the GC!
U25 riders
Rider
Mo
Hi
TT
Sta
Res
Rec
Acc
PL
Roman
77
75
64
71
73
74
76
58
Wirtgen
76
74
78
75
74
73
72
78
Carboni
76
75
67
71
71
71
68
67
Geoghegan Hart
76
73
74
74
73
73
69
74
Powless
75
71
76
74
73
74
71
76
Amezawa
75
75
64
75
77
78
73
60
Aranburu
75
75
63
69
78
72
69
63
Bernal
75
70
74
76
76
77
67
72
Blums
75
75
68
70
72
72
68
71
Sivakov
75
69
72
75
74
78
68
71
Foss
74
69
72
74
76
75
68
68
Sendeku
74
71
72
70
72
72
68
71
Crncevic
74
69
71
69
69
73
69
70
Munoz
74
68
65
70
70
70
67
57
Van Niekerk
73
77
65
72
75
76
74
65
Fernandes
73
69
75
77
76
74
67
75
Budenieks
73
74
63
70
74
71
73
61
Fung
73
68
72
66
70
71
70
70
While Roman is the strongest climber among them, Wirtgen might actually have a great advantage given his TT strength. Carboni, Amezawa, Aranburu and Blums are all really well-rounded riders, too - but they're all lacking some speed on their TT bike.
Which might make the difference with the likes of Geoghegan Hart or Powless, if they can keep up on the hills. When speaking of hills, Van Niekerk should be superior to all others - but he'll likely lose time on the longer climbs.
Another favorite might be Bernal, if his team really considers him to be the leader and supports him accordingly, while all others are here to help their leader. Except if Roman gets to lead his team instead of Kozhatayev, who is just slightly stronger - in this case, the Serb should be the favorite for this jersey.
But much more than in the GC, breakaways can have an influence for this classification - hence anyone who is lucky enough to get huge gaps with breakaway could win. Still, chances are high that a rider from the above list will take home the maglia bianca.
Are you still with us? Congratulations! We have reached the end of the 2020 Giro rider presentation, with only one thing missing: The startlist! Have fun going through it, and see you soon out on the Italian roads!
Only 15 Italians are partaking in their home GT, the most ambitious of them probably being Bongiorno and Aru in terms of GC, Viviani, Dal Col and Malori in the long ITT, and Appollonio and Nizzolo for the sprints. Home team Generali have not even a single home rider lined up, but should still have the Tifosi's support.
Note: Most reports will come in two or more parts, with the posts likely separated by 30-60 minutes.
That`s some huge preview! Very detailed and lots of information for all teams.
For my team it`s hopefully a good sign of what to expect from GTs as the Vuelta basically has the same startlist.
Valls could fight for a top15 here just like Velits. Though hopefully one of them also going for KoM and stage points in 3rd week as having two of high 70`s climbers hopefully giving them freedom then.
Carboni is interesting to be a potential top3 in the U25 ranking, but I fear he will have less freedom as others or in Wirtgen`s case, not being pulled with a stronger leader to a good GC spot. Vesuvio might have a huge year of U25 titles in GTs starting with Wirtgen here.
Ciccone could be another rider with potential breakaway/KoM success obviously.
Just hope the AI doesn`t use Boom/Frison/Van der Poel too often on mountain stages for breaks instead.
Van der Poel might have a very free role here and could surprise on a harder finish or from a break, but not sure his main stats are strong enough to be given a shot by the AI.
Boom and Koep for nostalgia reasons and TTT here. Not expecting a lot by them but a break appearance.
GC wise Taaramae looks superior while Spilak, Kritkisy should give him some challenge while Demare could be in for another dominant Giro stage hunting as couple years ago but not sure PCM18 will be as friendly to him as PCM15.
Afewerki obviously always a sprinter for GTs and also Kennaugh or Van Poppel should be in for a stage.
PCT teams with small 6 rider teams is a bit of a pity to see, in especially as the strongest riders seem to be needed in clashing races.
Regarding the PT Rankings, Bongiorno and in especially Nizzolo might be able to attack Evonik here. That said, later will again show up with 3rd tier riders, taking 2 stages and the KoM I guess as usual with Eislers winning a stage and being very consistent.
Last year Bongiorno was quite impressive in the Giro on several stages before fading in the 3rd week.
Thanks for the great preview and looking forward to the reports!
Awesome preview! I love the chances that Roman has going for white, that's our main ambition here.
Very weak startlist, which will benefit the likes of Spilak, Taaramae and Demare especially. Great to see Spilak having another chance to win the Giro!
PCM.daily Awards: Most Improved Member '16 // MG New Manager '16 // Thread of the Year (PCT Roundtable Analysis) '17 '18 '19 // Most Helpful Member '18 '19 '20 // MG Team of the Year (Isostar - Adriatic) '18 // MG Manager of the Year '18 '19 // Member of the Year '19
That's a great preview, Fabianski, thanks for that. I also like the overview in the second post. I hope my team will appear there a few times.
I could send a good TTT squad to either the Tour or here and decided to do it here to support Reis in his quest for a good GC. However looking at the Tinkoff squad I doubt a win in the first stage, which will see the victor score massive ranking points, is possible. I hope it will at least put Reis in a good position in the fight against all of the similarly strong climbers. Other than that I'm hoping for Hsu to get some good results in the sprint stages.
@roturn: Good to know that the Vuelta startlist is similarly strong/weak I was hoping to hit the two weaker GTs with my race selection for Reis!
Considered sending a strong TTT lineup, but in the end it came down to that WĂĽrtz probably had to be here for us to have any chance of a win. Okay, there's a pan flat TT on stage 14, but they usually tend to be for the GC favourites when they come so far out in a race.
Other than that it should be a team well suited to an attacking race! Nesset have shown before that he does well over three weeks and top 20 will be his goal. He hasn't shown much this season, but I have huge belief in Cosnefroy and now he doesn't have to pace the bunch for half of the race. Hope to see him in some breaks the next weeks!
Should be a great battle between Rein and Spilak for the win, with Rein probably as the favourite.
Ohhhh the excitement for GT season! And what a preview to get started!
We've hit a major jackpot here with the sprinters lineup, which didn't come entirely unexpected.
The TTT to start the race, as well as the difficult flat stages that ensue, certainly deterred the major competitors for Demare, which was exactly what I was banking on when deciding on his return to a race that he dominated in '18, crossing the finish line first on 6 occasions to tie an all-time record of stage wins in a single GT.
Now, as it has already been pointed out, being a clear favorite for the sprints has been a rather unfortunate position going into most races this season.
However, we should have a clear advantage in the sprint preparation thanks to our new addition Aregger following either our flat beasts Cavagna/Sagiv, or our allround gem Niu.
I am cautiously optimistic we can consistently field the strongest leadout that should be able to delay the launch of Demare long enough to reduce the risk of slipstream overtakes, not too dissimilar to what Podium Ambition has shown at times when Aberasturi/Nelson worked out as intended.
With Demare being listed as #11 on the startlist, I hope the game will grace him with advantageous positioning throughout the race and assign him the priority that he deserves.
Furthermore, it's obviously a tough task to most sprinters on the startlist to even make the sprint finish on a significant amount of stages with a flat finish, most of which are simultaneously not hard enough on paper to break up the peloton into too small pieces for Demare to be among the first of them.
Obviously, it's a concern that hilly rated stages might see us not make any use of our leadout and dissolve into chaos, but even from chaos, Demare can find his way to the line first.
Spilak is definitely a tough competitor for the ciclamino as well as a handful of stages, but I'm confident he's nowhere close to unbeatable anymore, and his sp/acc are far from scary by now.
I am quite hopeful that most of the third week stages should see massive breakaways in PCM18 that are likely to take opportunities away from the GC riders to slip into the jersey, and combining these two things, we're clearly aiming to finally take the maglia ciclamino home that already should've been rightfully Demare's in 2018, where even six stage wins weren't enough to do so.
I see stages 2, 3, 4, 6, potentially 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 17 and 21 as winnable stages for Demare.
Only stage 9 should favor Spilak over Demare outright, with stage 7 being a tossup.
From experience, I think flat and easy hilly stages are much less likely to see breakaway wins in this edition than mountainous stages, and with our team being very much focused on Demare, I hope we can reel in breaks on all of these days if a few teams think it's worth helping us.
In that regard, I'm very happy that at least Air France and eBuddy don't have any GC hopefuls to protect alongside helping Kennaugh and van Poppel. We three teams should be able to control the race.
As mentioned in the brilliant preview, our team is here entirely to support Demare on his two preferred terrains, with Nikias Arndt being a wildcard for a Top 10 result in the GC if the gaps get large enough for him to overcome his horrendous TTing.
With most climbers in Arndt's MO range being rather awful in short, intense efforts, I'm hoping he can overperform similar to his exploits in the just finished Volta a Colombia.
If the desired GC result is too far-fetched, Arndt should be the perfect candidate to join the large breaks in the latter half of the race to fight for the KoM jersey.
Christian Mager could be a favorite on his own for some puncheur stages, but obviously his sole purpose in this squad is to help Demare and Arndt.
And finally, our youngster Valentin Madouas is here to gather more GT experience, as well as showcasing his allround skills to be of use for our two leaders on any terrain.
Really hoping for a good result with Shikai here. The weaker startlist was not my expectation, but its the best GT for him with the most TT KMs, making the other two better for Quintana. Pointing out his weaker hills is perhaps worrying, but I hope his solid Rec makes up for that. Also, Shikai won a GT last year
We also have some of the better supports here, with a decent MO squad, and a one of the better TTT setups as well. Im not expecting a podium, but seeing where others rank, I think a Top 10 has to be the minimum for Shikai. Salcone may be a good break candidate, but Im hoping Costagli, if he's not supporting Shikai is off fighting for the KOM. As an Italian he needs to go on the attack for the fans, especially if there are not too many in the race this year.
Hype levels through the damn roof for this one!!! Going to be the single most important race in the team's history. Home race, Spilak as a top 3 favourite with a massive point-scoring potential (I'm happy about the field here), extremely solid supporting team and a favourable profile. With cobbles behind us, this is our time to shine and get back in the ranking spots we belong in.
The opener is already going to be fundamental, need the gang to perform the way they're supposed to, in order to put Spilak in a favourable position ahead of stage 4 and beyond.
Really looking forward to it, fantastic job on the preview Fabianski!
After the horrible show in one of our key races (Praha) we could really use some salvation here. We don't exactly have the team to get that but we could need it nontheless.
I like the sprint opportunities for Nizzolo here with him realistically being in the mix 6 times (If he survives the mountains). Being no #4-7 without any proper helpers is usually the right place to be unless the dominating sprinter makes it work - which does happen occasionally.
The GC battle is really weak, so this was probably the best possible race for Lecuisinier - and this also bodes really difficult for the Liechtenstein race as only Taaramäe of the 4-5 riders that can regularly beat Lecuisinier is present. He would have had a very good shot at winning this race, although Taaramäe is the better TT'er and Spilak the better puncheur.
I can only hope that we can instead see ourselves be very active and because of that we have brought the duo that worked brilliantly last season - Kastrantas and van Niekerk. The latter have possibly been upgraded in the off season just a tad too much for him to get the leeway he needs to be succesfull. but I really hope I'm mistaken and we'll get to see him again and again! He does have some very handy stats for stage 4, 7, 11 and 12 in particular, while Ioannidis might be a decent allrounder to finish around 50 or so.
Bongiorno is the big questions mark. He did reasonably well last season in the GT's, and on paper he does have an outside chance of a top 10 finish, while 12-15 seems like the realistic option. Maybe he can get enough freedom to get into the breaks regularly as he's among the worse TT'ers here and we will lose time on those terrains (including the TTT). I have build my team around that atleast, so let's hope it works out.
Demare obviously the man to watch for the sprints, but I see Eislers and Kennaugh in particular being able to tease him on the more flat stages. It will be very interesting to see if he can dominate on the hilly stuff also, or if those are being handed to the breakway riders - I can only hope for Aidan to join those puncheurs here and get some KOM points and some stagesucces.
On paper there is a difficult way towards a good U25 position here, but if Aidan is aggressive he should have a fair shot at top 5 atleast - maybe even podium. 73MO isn't great, but isn't too horrible either and seeing him win the U23 WC last season he showed that he can climb rather well.
Amazing preview, I'm really excited about this race, looking at all the different battles (again perfectly outlined in this preview) this could be the race of the season!
Nice preview. I'm mostly hoping we can do some cool stuff from breakaways. And it'll be interesting to follow the Powless/Hart duo battling for a high U25 spot.
Giro d'Italia 
And what a preview to get started!
