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Tirreno - Adriatico Discussion
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 22-11-2020 11:07
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The race will start after the last stage of Hong Kong has been posted
 [PT] Tirreno-Adriatico 
The race:: Welcome to this years edition of the classic Italian stage race from Coast to Coast. This year’s edition will be 7 stages of a total of 1.021 km of those 13.3 km against the clock. Due to an easier route the ITT km may have a bit more impact compared to last year’s mountain climbs but we must expect a top puncher to dominate on the uphill wall finishes we are facing. Stage two from Numana to Fano, stage three from Castelraimondo to Filottrano and stage seven from Camaiore to Follonica are for the most part identical to last season, the other stages have changed a lot.
The Teams:
Air France – KLM:
clearly race favorite, with a brutal combi of  Hagen, Bystrom and Gaudu, Hagen will no doubt be the bookmaker favorite.
Bennelong – Mitchelton:
If anyone can challenge Air France it must be  Bobridge, why? He got a much better ITT/Prologue than any of the other favorites, if he can take a very clear lead on day one – there is a good chance for him to grind the remaining stages and win the race. Bobridge got a reasonable support in Hamilton,
Lane and McCormick.
None of the other outsider for the overall win, got ITT qualities to outperform the above-mentioned riders at day one. The have to relay on superior form to win the race, but that is no doubt possible with a lot of almost even puncher at the startlist.
Team UBS with  Ponzi, Müller and Fumeaux
Rakuten Pro Cycling with  Kinoshita and Kratochvila
Isostar – Specialized with  Mohoric and Calmejane
Evonik – ELKO with  Skujins, but without top support
EA Vesuvio with  Van Garderen
Indosat Ooredoo with  Bakelants
Aker – MOT with  Kwiatkowski, the only top puncher with a strong climb, will help some but not sure how much at these profiles.
Might be worth mentioning Team Popo4Ever brought  Pluchkin and
Prevar, Interesting to see if a rider like Pluchkin can make some impact with a lot of MO and TT combined with some punch.
Stages:
At the opening ITT/Prologue  Würtz,  Vlatos and  Coppel almost evenly strong with  Lammertink, Dillier and  Sütterlin as ousiders.
At the two flat stages we got a few great sprinters most notably Howard and Van Poppel as outright favorites with  Moser, Rowe,  Petit and Nizzolo as closest rivals, not taking team setup into account in this preview.
Then we got the last possibility for a stage win, likely to happen at the last few stages where the time differences can allow the top teams to let a group get away without risking the GC. I would expect to see riders like
Ford, Feng,  Toupalik Cosnefroy,  Quita or Declerq, working hard to get in those breakaway but that is of course just wild guessing, anyway would not be surprised to see one of them take a stage or the KoM.
List of punchers
| F | M | H | T | S | Re | Rc | C | S | A | F | D | P | | Hagen | 76 | 69 | 84 | 71 | 80 | 73 | 71 | 54 | 72 | 78 | 74 | 65 | 71 | | Bobridge | 73 | 69 | 83 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 69 | 53 | 69 | 80 | 66 | 66 | 77 | | Ponzi | 75 | 72 | 83 | 67 | 76 | 71 | 75 | 67 | 75 | 79 | 76 | 73 | 67 | | Kinoshita | 73 | 72 | 83 | 66 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 59 | 68 | 77 | 73 | 71 | 66 | | Mohoric | 72 | 71 | 83 | 64 | 78 | 72 | 72 | 50 | 67 | 77 | 71 | 79 | 64 | | Skujins | 70 | 70 | 83 | 59 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 67 | 68 | 76 | 66 | 66 | 59 | | Van Garderen | 73 | 72 | 82 | 69 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 67 | 70 | 79 | 80 | 75 | 69 | | Bakelants | 70 | 73 | 82 | 65 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 61 | 71 | 75 | 72 | 67 | 64 | | Kwiatkowski | 72 | 78 | 81 | 70 | 74 | 76 | 75 | 68 | 67 | 75 | 73 | 69 | 75 | | Boswell | 70 | 71 | 80 | 67 | 77 | 73 | 71 | 56 | 65 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 69 |  Jensen | 71 | 70 | 80 | 67 | 77 | 73 | 71 | 55 | 66 | 76 | 81 | 73 | 70 | | Vakoc | 71 | 71 | 80 | 69 | 75 | 71 | 67 | 52 | 71 | 74 | 61 | 66 | 69 | | Prevar | 72 | 71 | 80 | 62 | 77 | 70 | 68 | 53 | 67 | 73 | 63 | 66 | 62 | | Bystrom | 72 | 68 | 79 | 61 | 75 | 72 | 67 | 56 | 68 | 76 | 78 | 73 | 61 |  Chaves | 70 | 76 | 79 | 68 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 54 | 60 | 72 | 69 | 64 | 68 |
List of Tempo Riders
| F | M | H | T | S | Re | Rc | C | S | A | F | D | P | | Würtz | 77 | 67 | 71 | 82 | 78 | 78 | 76 | 62 | 66 | 70 | 69 | 72 | 79 | | Coppel | 75 | 64 | 74 | 81 | 75 | 75 | 69 | 52 | 63 | 71 | 71 | 62 | 81 | | Vlatos | 72 | 52 | 66 | 81 | 73 | 71 | 67 | 68 | 67 | 66 | 68 | 52 | 81 | | Lammertink | 74 | 64 | 69 | 80 | 70 | 76 | 70 | 65 | 63 | 68 | 74 | 68 | 79 | | Sütterlin | 71 | 59 | 65 | 80 | 73 | 77 | 67 | 56 | 59 | 60 | 76 | 73 | 80 | | Dillier | 70 | 51 | 64 | 80 | 74 | 77 | 67 | 68 | 61 | 62 | 74 | 63 | 79 | | Brändle | 75 | 76 | 71 | 79 | 73 | 73 | 72 | 56 | 60 | 69 | 62 | 68 | 79 | | Malori | 78 | 61 | 68 | 79 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 70 | 64 | 79 | | Viviani | 78 | 60 | 66 | 79 | 71 | 77 | 74 | 60 | 71 | 70 | 73 | 64 | 79 | | Dal Col | 71 | 58 | 64 | 79 | 70 | 72 | 68 | 54 | 62 | 70 | 65 | 62 | 78 | | Haugard | 72 | 57 | 60 | 79 | 74 | 77 | 70 | 56 | 57 | 67 | 73 | 65 | 79 |
List of sprinters
| F | M | H | T | S | Re | Rc | C | S | A | F | D | P | | Howard | 76 | 63 | 68 | 68 | 75 | 70 | 79 | 63 | 82 | 79 | 64 | 65 | 68 | | Van Poppel | 72 | 60 | 64 | 67 | 74 | 71 | 78 | 64 | 81 | 78 | 56 | 69 | 72 | | Nizzolo | 73 | 54 | 64 | 57 | 70 | 67 | 71 | 57 | 80 | 79 | 62 | 64 | 66 | | Moser | 72 | 53 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 69 | 76 | 62 | 80 | 79 | 63 | 54 | 72 | | Petit | 76 | 52 | 65 | 61 | 76 | 72 | 78 | 72 | 80 | 78 | 65 | 68 | 66 | | Rowe | 72 | 50 | 62 | 67 | 80 | 58 | 79 | 67 | 80 | 70 | 61 | 66 | 67 | | Afewerki | 73 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 77 | 70 | 81 | 69 | 79 | 80 | 68 | 70 | 71 | | Hsu | 75 | 64 | 67 | 69 | 75 | 70 | 73 | 72 | 79 | 79 | 67 | 71 | 69 |  Soupe | 72 | 64 | 66 | 65 | 72 | 69 | 76 | 64 | 79 | 77 | 57 | 64 | 68 | | Suryadi | 71 | 56 | 62 | 64 | 72 | 68 | 76 | 58 | 79 | 76 | 61 | 60 | 64 | | Santos | 76 | 63 | 64 | 66 | 71 | 72 | 76 | 53 | 78 | 78 | 70 | 67 | 74 | | Liu | 72 | 63 | 67 | 63 | 75 | 67 | 79 | 65 | 78 | 78 | 64 | 68 | 65 | | Aregger | 73 | 64 | 71 | 68 | 72 | 71 | 77 | 62 | 78 | 77 | 65 | 67 | 78 |
** Sometimes I miss the extra info of all skills in stead of just a few, would not mind a comment in the tread: Is it helpful or confusing?
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| ember |
Posted on 22-11-2020 12:06
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This will be very, very interesting!
Must say I believe in Kwatek's chances here. There's "only" nine riders with a better hill stat, but looking at backup stats too, I think there should be chances for a better GC than a 9th place, but we shall see.
As the preview points out too, the opening TT could see this be a "dull" race too, if the puncheurs aren't able to create gaps on the hills. And looking at how some hilly stage races played out last season on PCM18, I won't rule it out completely.
Having said all that, I'm still optimistic the puncheurs can create gaps, and that Kwiatek will be among those strong enough to take advantage of it. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-02-2023 17:25
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| Bikex |
Posted on 22-11-2020 12:34
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I brought Gidich for the GC. I think with his superior TT stat to some of the slightly better hill specialist I can expect him to fight for the top 10 and the U25 jersey. Additionally Brändle might score a decent GC, if his mountain stat means he can hold on until almost the finish. Viviani could also do well in the TT and Hsu seems to be one of the better sprinters present.
However looking at how my team does usually, this is how it will go: Viviani and Brändle will not finish in the top 20 of the TT, Hsu won't take part in the sprints but remain at the backend of the pack and Gidich will fall asleep during the important parts of the hilly stages.
Anyways thanks for the nice preview Tamijo. Since you ask, I like seeing all the stats, but maybe it would be more intuitive if the important stats would be marked somehow, for example you could make the HI stat bold in the puncheurs table. |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 22-11-2020 13:02
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Would have loved the TT to be 20k longer. Fear that the PRL stat will hurt Wurtz too much to take the win. That is of course our big goal in this race, and then hoping that both him and Cosnefroy can hang on to top 30 in GC or so, but that would probably require a rather unselective race. That being said, I'm really hoping for some breakaways from Cosnefroy. Should be a great parcours for him. Also hopefully Serrano can show his kick once or twice.
EBH, Bobridge and Kwiato as my top three favourites. Or perhaps Ponzi on home soil? Should be a thight race!
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 22-11-2020 13:54
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@ember
The puncher list is not my prediction, it is order of HIL with ACC as decider.
My prediction was two teams likely to fight for the win with 7 teams able to take the last podium with a bit of luck all with pro's and con's, Popo4Ever the outsider hard to predict.
@Bikex
Thanks for reply and yes would be good to somehow underline the important stats.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 22-11-2020 14:16
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Thinking Dennis and the others could grab a decent GC result if they hit ok daily forms in the hilly stages, going for depth points here. With no true "strong" leader, I hope that doesn't work against me AI-wise. Thanks for the nice preview Tamijo 
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| cio93 |
Posted on 22-11-2020 14:21
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Just like in Qatar, we're here for the TT with Sütterlin, and I surely wouldn't mind to have similar success! 
Realistically, the longer TT should reduce randomness, which does favor Würtz, Coppel and Vlatos as slightly better riders. 1-1.5 points of advantage over the bunch of 79 guys is well within daily form range at that length, so we're looking at anything from 1st to 10th, I guess.
Let's hope the extra motivation from the win puts Sütterlin on top again!
With just 10 riders better suited to the two flat stages than Aregger, I'm cautiously optimistic the AI will actually treat him as a sprinter there and he can Holloway his way through the guys who launched too early.
He has the best hill stat of all sprinters, but sadly the stages where that could come into play don't end flat.
For the hilly stages and therefore the GC, we bring absolutely nobody, so the strategy there should be to get Sagiv and Declerq into as many breaks as possible, with both being well suited to a KoM campaign if we manage to do so.
Stages 3 and 6 are going to decide that, so we definitely have to be in the mix there.
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| ember |
Posted on 22-11-2020 14:48
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Tamijo wrote:
@ember
The puncher list is not my prediction, it is order of HIL with ACC as decider.
Exactly, that was my point too  |
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 22-11-2020 16:47
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Personally dont think this will be a MO race at all, so bringing Pluchkin here is a big gamble. Kwiato is atleast pretty suited to hills as well, but I predict (and hope) that the pure punchuers will be battling to win this race. As others have said though, the TT being the first stage may "rule out" some hill specialists from even trying (thats just how this PCM works) which could lead to a boring race.
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| ryant |
Posted on 22-11-2020 17:53
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I'm hoping for a PCM 18 special where the stronger TTers can hold on to decent GC positions which is tbf not out of the question. Coppel obviously should be our leader and I hope he can serve up a better performance than in Qatar. A top 10 overall would be amazing for us so we're keeping our fingers crossed.
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| roturn |
Posted on 22-11-2020 20:23
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No big expectations but active showings and breakaways.
The second row getting a chance to show themselves.
Zardini, Carboni, Van der Poel hopefully with some mid level points. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 23-11-2020 09:00
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Interesting to see what I can land from having a decent sprinter who's not the pre-race favorite. I hope he can jump from wheel to wheel and get a good result. Vlatos in TT's is always a cointoss, as the difference in quality is very low!
David Boily doesn't get a mention here, so I suspect he will not be very good - I can hope to be very aggressive in the breaks and maybe for someone like Ioannidis to sneak out a decent GC from his allround capabilities.
Looking at the startlist I'm pretty confident that Koretzky can get a decent result in the clashing one-day race though. This was easily the biggest issue when planning him all season...
Fingers crossed for a good opener.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 23-11-2020 09:54
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Hopefully Boswell can get a good result on this route. And Van Poppel looks good for the sprints.
And about the stats given in the previews. I don't really have a preference. You can do whatever works best for you
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 23-11-2020 11:39
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We prioritized P-N and Duche over Tirreno this year. Curious whether these guys can salvage anything here.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 23-11-2020 19:51
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The nice thing about having two 81+ Hill riders this season is that I can put up an interest in both Grand-Duche and the hill-focused stage race, this year being here in Tirreno. And Gastauer for our home race is just a given, so I didn't even have to deliberate over who to send where.
I'm not super confident about the AI in hill stage races, but there's always a chance it can work out for Van Garderen, so let's see what happens.
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 24-11-2020 04:25
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Hopefully my Italian riders will score us some must needed points.
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 24-11-2020 12:28
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Interested to see how the combo of Vakoc and Sepulveda gets on here. Also have a sprint option for appropriate days, and decent depth for breaks considering the constraints of the triple-clash. However it is achieved, looking for a solid points haul!
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 24-11-2020 16:58
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Stage hunting for us seems the most likely result here, as I don't think MO will come into play at any time in this race, though if it does will have to see how Chaves handles using one of his strengths against the elite puncheurs here.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 24-11-2020 17:16
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The profiles look okay for Bobridge.. but I'm obviously not too optmistic, given his general "success" since last season. A terrible (but somehow expected) Volta a Portugal outing does not improve my confidence, even though it must be questioned, why I thought Portugal could be a good idea this year...
With Bobridge and Howard lining up here, there must be hope at least for some stage results though...
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| roturn |
Posted on 25-11-2020 12:29
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19th is kind of expected start for Frison. He really needs a +5 to have any chance of a scoring day, nothing that can be expected from him obviously.
Other than that just only now realized that I have 5 riders in the U25 ranking here. So let`s see what in especially Carboni and Van der Poel can do in that competition. Surely no chance to challenge Wirtgen, Gaudu, Gidich, Padun, Aidan etc. but let`s see.
At least all riders having a bit of freedom now for breakaways and then a VdP sprint in the end.
Regarding the stage, Würtz with a good first couple races as newly maxed TT superstar. |
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