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26-02-2021 01:47
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PCM.daily Stat Discussion
fidjim2013
I’ve never seen a rider more unlucky than Pinot what a shame but last year TDF was his to lose
 
Tafiolmo
Pinot already has weaker recovery and is 74 rec, so he could either work with 81 or 82 mtn. We've kind of modelled Pinot like we did with Porte some years ago by giving out lower rec to show a level of inconsistency in GT's.
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andrew7taylor
Tafiolmo wrote:
Pinot already has weaker recovery and is 74 rec, so he could either work with 81 or 82 mtn. We've kind of modelled Pinot like we did with Porte some years ago by giving out lower rec to show a level of inconsistency in GT's.

Okay. Couldn't see his stats because my WinRar say it's an incomplete/corrupt archive. But at least we agree on his crappy recovery Smile
 
Tafiolmo
I'm interested in getting opinions here for the following riders Van Aert, Van der Poel and Evenepoel (the super Belgians and one DutchSmile ) Van Aert and Evenepeol are improving at a massive rate and they are not going to be easy to stat and will the go on getting better! We'll have our own ideas within the PCM stats team BUT I would really like to get other opinions so we can get them the best we can for the next update. Any stats would be good but most interested in climbing, flat, sprint/acc and RES for these riders?
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Arberg
Evenepoel 78-79 in mountain, with potential to be the best, maybe wait until after Giro.
 
Tafiolmo
Arberg wrote:
Evenepoel 78-79 in mountain, with potential to be the best, maybe wait until after Giro.


I've improved him to 78 mtn with the aim of seeing how he does at the Giro before anymore improvements. Smile
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Arberg
Tafiolmo wrote:
Arberg wrote:
Evenepoel 78-79 in mountain, with potential to be the best, maybe wait until after Giro.


I've improved him to 78 mtn with the aim of seeing how he does at the Giro before anymore improvements. :)
Good :)
 
Ollfardh
I tihnk we should also give a 8 potential to Evenepoel, I know that's never been done before, but his development has been insane.

For Mathieu I'd wait a bit, he hasn't shown much year so no need for changes yet.

Wout just keeps improving, I'm thinking mostly RES and STA upgrades. He has that big engine that reminds of Cancellara. His Hill and maybe MO stat may need an upgrade as well, and he should also be able to win a TDF mass sprint (but with low ACC, more of a power sprinter). So all in all, I kinda understand your problem how to balance him Grin
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Arberg
Agree - 8 potential to Evenepoel.
 
MartijnVDD
Can we expect a stat update before the Tour?
Or can I start a new save right away?
 
Croatia14
MartijnVDD wrote:
Can we expect a stat update before the Tour?
Or can I start a new save right away?


We are indeed planning on bringing out an update before the tour, however we can't say how big it will be. Surely it will contain some stats though, as Tafiolmo especially worked on mountain stats lately. Also we'll fix the spelling problems of many riders due to the PCM update.
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Tafiolmo
A few Observations about the above stats and those of the DB are probably going to be quite different. Firstly I'm of the belief that Jumbo may well have peaked too early whereas the far more experienced in GT's Ineos will peak at the Tour but of course only time will tell here. So certain inflated numbers for Jumbo have not been given for its riders and of its climbers it's only Kuss that has made a notable jump. We also need to remember that for most GT riders the Dauphine has come as a shock to them with its climbing after so much time off and some that didn't perform as well as expected may well peak at the Tour.

Putting Roglic at 82 mtn is overkill as we have a rider with very high TT and RES meaning that he will feel more like 83 and probably win whichever GT he enters and will make the game less interesting. I understand the desire to put Pinot at 82 but bear in mind that he will probably be better than Bernal due to his better hill stat. As for Quintana he has low back-up stats and with a return to form he is certainly an 81 mtn. Nibali imo is on the slide whilst Porte did better than I thought at Dauphine and imo both 79 mtn. Pogacar should be either 80 and possibly 81 but due to other higher stats 80 probably better. Sivakov way better than 77 and more like a 79.

The climbing stats for the pre-Tour update are almost finshed as we are mostly concentrating on getting the best combos in mtn,hill acc and res etc for these riders but for this season more than any other there is a lot of guess work on rider's abilities, so bear that in mind. For example is Thomas going to hit peak form at the Tour or is he now just a weaker version of Dumoulin, so we have questions like this to decide for the update.

The main problem is of course Froome and could be anywhere between 81 and 78 and is he quite simply riding himself into form for another of the GT's or is he really a shadow of his former self and at the moment and I am between 80 and 79 with him. The big problem with Froome is not just his mtn stats but others which have been high and they need to lowered otherwise he will get team leadership above both Bernal and Thomas.

As always put all your mtn stats here as some may influence what goes into the update.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 16-08-2020 08:38
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cio93
Between the last two stages and the final Burgos stage, I assume we can talk 76 or 77 mo for Kämna now?
 
Tafiolmo
cio93 wrote:
Between the last two stages and the final Burgos stage, I assume we can talk 76 or 77 mo for Kämna now?


He's at 76/75 mtn and hill and thought about 77 mtn but decided to improve res instead to 76 as he seems a real power rider but could be tweaked to 77 mtn and so let's see how he does on today's stage.
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Arberg
Tafiolmo wrote:
A few Observations about the above stats and those of the DB are probably going to be quite different. Firstly I'm of the belief that Jumbo may well have peaked too early whereas the far more experienced in GT's Ineos will peak at the Tour but of course only time will tell here. So certain inflated numbers for Jumbo have not been given for its riders and of its climbers it's only Kuss that has made a notable jump. We also need to remember that for most GT riders the Dauphine has come as a shock to them with its climbing after so much time off and some that didn't perform as well as expected may well peak at the Tour.

Putting Roglic at 82 mtn is overkill as we have a rider with very high TT and RES meaning that he will feel more like 83 and probably win whichever GT he enters and will make the game less interesting. I understand the desire to put Pinot at 82 but bear in mind that he will probably be better than Bernal due to his better hill stat. As for Quintana he has low back-up stats and with a return to form he is certainly an 81 mtn. Nibali imo is on the slide whilst Porte did better than I thought at Dauphine and imo both 79 mtn. Pogacar should be either 80 and possibly 81 but due to other higher stats 80 probably better. Sivakov way better than 77 and more like a 79.

The climbing stats for the pre-Tour update are almost finshed as we are mostly concentrating on getting the best combos in mtn,hill acc and res etc for these riders but for this season more than any other there is a lot of guess work on rider's abilities, so bear that in mind. For example is Thomas going to hit peak form at the Tour or is he now just a weaker version of Dumoulin, so we have questions like this to decide for the update.

The main problem is of course Froome and could be anywhere between 81 and 78 and is he quite simply riding himself into form for another of the GT's or is he really a shadow of his former self and at the moment and I am between 80 and 79 with him. The big problem with Froome is not just his mtn stats but others which have been high and they need to lowered otherwise he will get team leadership above both Bernal and Thomas.

As always put all your mtn stats here as some may influence what goes into the update.

Roglic is my and the bookmakers' favorite to win the tour.
Quintana has not shown anything in the big races for several years.
Pinot is better than Bernal.
Nibali became number two in the giro last year.
 
Tafiolmo
Roglic is my and the bookmakers' favorite to win the tour.
Quintana has not shown anything in the big races for several years.
Pinot is better than Bernal.
Nibali became number two in the giro last year.[/quote]

Roglic is also my fav to win the Tour (that is if he hasn't peaked too early) and with those TT and RES stats is like 82 mtn anyway and will be hard to beat and the strongest GT rider now in game and by having him at 82 mtn will feel like 83 etc Quintana is back on form but as usual has very low back-up stats making him a weak 81. Pinot is more exciting than Bernal but Bernal is more consistent than Pinot and Bernal has already won the Tour which tips that in his favour but of course we can put Pinot to 82 as I know that would be a popular choice. Nibali yes was 2nd (that was both a strange a terribly designed tour route) but his best years imo as a GT rider may well be past him and at the moment is between 79 and 80 and again if others want him 80 then will defo put this.

If anybody thinks Roglic should be as high as 82 mtn and feel like 83 then mention that here before the update comes out bearing in mind as well that he has the best climbing team with Ineos.

Also opinions on Nibali, Thomas, Uran-who is a hard one to do and Froome along with any others are requested as well.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 17-08-2020 10:24
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Arberg
"Bernal has already won the Tour"

But Pinot was stronger!

https://youtu.be/...
 
Ollfardh
Nibali needs a small downgrade - age is getting to him. 79 seems generous at this points.
Thomas same thing imo
Uran is just bleh. You could argue giving him 76MO for his current results, but for all we know he might podium TDF again in a few weeks.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Tafiolmo
Ok some good opinions from both Olifardh and Arberg here.

If we ACCEPT that Pinot is actually the best climber then 82 is correct and it could work with very low rec and also given that his team is not overly strong as a climbing team then this would work too BUT bear in mind that he has higher hill than Bernal which makes him stronger and is also a little bit better at TT as well. If it wasn't for his performance at Dauphine on the final stage then I would risk 82 mtn. After Roglic withdrew Pinot should've won yesterday but as usual an up and down performance within the stage along with Pinot getting a whole load of help from other French riders still wasn't enough to stop Martinez who looked both cool and smooth, it's stuff like this that raises questions over Pinot!

Uran is a hard one and I have put him to 78/78 with Martinez upgraded to 79/76 and Woods in that team to 77/80. The idea here is to now give Martinez possible GT leadership in that team but recognizes that Uran may well be the most balanced in his stats and Woods the best hill rider.

Thomas looks like being a Wiggins where winning the Tour seems to have been the ultimate achievement and the ability to repeat it ssems unlikely. He could work on 79 and certaily looks inferior to Dumoulin a rider very similar to him but I'm certain all the Ineos riders though will peak at the Tour because the team are so good at GT's. Froome though is another question Smile

Also my gut feeling for Nibali is 79 but will get Croatia's opinion on the DB Team and listen to other suggestions here.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 17-08-2020 13:54
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StevenGreen
I don't know where Bennett is at right now, but I wonder where he's at with his mountain and hill stat, especially in regards to Kuss.

Personally I'd have Bennett over Kuss at the moment. They could have the same mountain stat with Bennett having a better hill stat after his strong performances last week.

I am somewhat biased here but I don't think 80 MTN is out of this world for both.

Interested in what you guys think.
"He made a bigger comeback than Easter Sunday."



 
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