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ICL19 - Previews & Statistics
Bikex
Really cool Croatia. It was really easy to follow your video and also helped me to get an overview of the CT again. Can't wait for the WT video. Smile
 
Ollfardh
So many familiar faces in the CT, and they usualy come with a compliment. Really nice preview!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Shonak
Croatia14 wrote:
@Shonak: probably yes...I think I may find the time today or tomorrow

Great, very cool. I recently took a look at the ICL archive which is pretty up to date still at least up till ICL18 TDF. Might be nice to leverage this as a tool during the preview.

Hopefully racing can start soon. Smile
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krisa
Lets see if Aru's planning is good enough to make up all these expectations. He races quite a lot in WT so let see it he can grab the points needed for promotion.

Great preview @Croatia
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/jerseydesigner.pngi.imgur.com/vR8EVAA.png
i.imgur.com/psfC63E.png
 
Ripley
A simple table suggested by croatia, the current lowest wage paid per main skill level. In some cases several riders qualify but I selected just one each. For AVG it's the lowest paid rider in the whole bracket (for example, from 77.0 to 77.9).

LevelMONHILSPRCOB TTRAVG
75210200160180140280
LambertPaterskiKerrisonSerryGrudzevPasqualon
76270320250285230350
MonsalveMosesKolarByronHovlandDamuseau
77340380300340300420
FormoloGeniezLodewyckTerpstraCampenaertsOspina
78420490360425400540
OspinaMoreiraRingheimOssHepburnLudvigsson
79600780460700400625
BoswellLutsenkoBlytheGVAQuaadeCoquard
8010251100480800650875
FroomeD. MartinNizzoloSenechalVorobyevCavendish
811350150087512001350
HerradaKwiatkowskiCavendishGVKBardet
821350133010451600
BardetKittelVanmarckeBarguil

i.imgur.com/itY17df.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/avatar.png
 
df_Trek
I just followed your entire preview video Croatia, It was really nice because now I have a kind of an idea on the situation team by team, and a feedback about the CT level on races where I've strong points to play. I just hope you didn't overrated my team because being just after who will fight for promotion is it could be a very succesfull season! Grin
 
Ripley
Here's a comparison of two CT predictions, if anybody else wants to make a prediction, even just a simple ranking, I'll add it. For now it's croatia's prediction against my WAVG which I think will do better than WPOS this season because of Aru, Froome, Herklotz and Moser.

Croatia14WAVG6
Ceramica Panaria11
Balkan Cycling Project22
SAP - Bianchi38
Wilier Triestina47
KBC Godiva55
Equinor Pro Cycling64
Santos - Euskadi76
Brugse Zot - Trek818
Polestar ProCycling914
Fox Sports1012
Shell Pro Cycling113
Specialized - Sony1211
Bosch Cycling Team1310
Vegeta Cycling Team1419
Swedbank - PEAB1517
Steelseries CT1613
PostNL1721
Project Cumbria1816
Team Cymru Wales199
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka2015
Szczecin - Zentiva2120
ICBC Cycling Team2222
Cool Runnings2323


Top and bottom are nearly identical. The biggest "disagreements" are Brugze Zot and Cymru Wales. The former has a cobblestone focus, and there's not much competition there. For example, there are 26 riders altogether with COB 76+, just 6 in the CT (3 of them riding for Brugze Zot), while there are 111 riders with MON 76+, 39 of them in the CT. So the team can dominate the CT cobbles even with fairly low AVG riders, so WAVG might be a bit off.

I did the planning for sutty's team Cymru Wales so I have a bit of skin in the game and am hoping to prove croatia wrong. Smile

The two predictions also differ quite significantly when it comes to Shell. The team has four really good riders, two climbers, two sprinters, and little else. That's enough to do well in WAVG, but I agree with croatia here.
i.imgur.com/itY17df.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/avatar.png
 
df_Trek
I obviously agree with Croatia Pfft but being realistic I'm happy with a mid classification finish. As a rookie the minimum goal is to rank at least in the third 1/4 of the table.
I hope to have enough time to analyze teams to join the bunch of predictions
 
Ollfardh
I did some U23 previews before, then last year I did cobbles but I decided I enjoyed U23 more, so here we are again:


Astana U23

All in all very balanced team to go first. They’re led by Polyakov whose cobbled stat combined with his sprint and backups could be a contender in many races. Pichler and Rucibini are covering the other areas. The rest of the team aside from Zappino doesn’t look that promising, so somewhere upper third is where we should expect this team.


Aviva Futura Project

With 71 being the highest hill stat in the division, Garcia is suddenly a contender. He and Fritsch will have to carry the team though, as there is no one really standing from the others. I’m nnot going to call it a one man team, but they will rely heavily on Garcia if they want to compete for anything.


Bora - Argon 18 Junior Team

I only have 4 riders on this team, is that even allowed? None of them are any good either, so I’m assuming this is a discontinued team and end my preview here.


Deutsche Bahn

Jansen, Nentwich and Reuter are covering the mountains, but they’re probably too similar to score much. Dimas will not do that much in the sprints yet, but give him one more year of training and he’ll get there. The rest of the team is there for support but they lack a cobbler. It will be midtable for them this year.


Equinor

Strom (no, I’m not going to look up weird accents) has the shared highest cobble stat in the division, but not the best backup stats. Ekman, Nogueira and Bonomi will score as well. Decent team here, not going to win the title but I like it and they should end up in the upper third section.


Équipe Citroën

Transition year. Not a single pointscorer, but all with decent potential and relatively young. Let’s come back in a year and see how it went for them. The nationality focus is really nice though, just so I can end with something positive about them.


Finair

I see I complimented Mapemba in a previous preview, but I don’t like him now. He’s a complete allrounder now, leading the team in every race. The problem is he can’t ride every race of course. Mwaanga can score in the time trials and Niemi can do a bit of sprinting. First pot 7 as well with Rasmussen, I just don’t know where we’re going with him.


Giant Asia

Barbeau in the 71 puncheur group, but he’s probably a bit too slow to finish it. Koejoe is looking good for next year mostly. Guan and Won will score a bit as well. Good hill support further down the roster as well. Good team, but again not going to be competing this year.


La Fundacion

I always loved this team and this year is no exception, all 6-7 potentials, great nationality focus and ready to go for a lot of wins. Garau is just amazing, they have good riders for time trials and hills. If Ortega would have had one more year of development, they would’ve won the title, but alas they lack a stage races this year.


Leopard - Evonik

Gonçalves has the highest average of the division, unfortunately as a time trialist that won’t result in winning the most points. Preciado and Husillos are insanely good as well at only 21. There’s just no bad rider on this team and that should get them really far this year. Maybe even good enough for the title


Nemiroff

It’s hard to be up after 2 great teams, but I’m afraid to say that this team would be disappointing either way. Kolesov is ok, but no more than that. Kolecko has the potential for next year, but not this one. The rest of the team is young, but no super talent. Given some time, they’ll get better, but major changes are needed here.


Podravka Development Team

Another one of those teams that never disappoints. Kiss is a really good puncheur, Babik and Kircher will score on their terrains and the support they get is just awesome. Add a nice regional focus as well and you’ll see that this team will be high on my prediction list as well.


PureBlack racing

I see I demolished this team in a previous preview, but they listened and greatly improved. Verkuyl is a top cobbler and I think I can best deliver the point by giving the AVG value of the others: 71, 70, 70, 70, 70, 70 and 69. Impressive! They definitely have to be considered as one of the favourites.


Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development Team

Not what they used to be after seeing so many leave to the pro team. Wais is a great climber and Colpaert’s weird stats could get him somewhere. Some talent on the way but not this year. Also funny to see Wouters demoted to the Dev team again.


Silber

Quantity instead of quality here. Saby can try something on the cobbles but his stat is so low there’s plenty of allrounders with the same cobble stat. Ollero is a guy for the future, but all in all I’m sorry to say this team is a bit of a disappointment.



Squadra Ceramica

They’re balanced for sure, but they lack top riders. Iodice, Nounkeu, Eden and Gellardo all decent riders but none of them really stands out. Good support as well, but without a real leader that’s worthless. But aside from Iodice they’re all 22 our younger, so watch out for this team next year!


Suntory Orangina

What a team! Biggest surprise is their pot 7 73/73 sprinter isn’t even considered to be their best rider on average. Meyer is the best sprinter in the division, no question about that. If you also have the best stage racer with Gonzalez and great support in Gochashvili, Mane and Padilla, you have to be considered the favourite for the title.


Team Colpack

But hold on, look at this team! Zanni and Alzaga are world class. Calo will score on the hills and just look at that cobble support. They’re gonna be close as well and with so many guys aged 23, it’s going to be now or never.


Telenor

I don’t want to insult anyone, so I hope this is a filler team rather than a managed one. No top riders, no top talents. Leinonen is supposed to lead the team, but how? The only positive thing I can say about this team is that they kept their wages low.


Vittel

Balanced with good leaders. Brick is a top sprinter, Boothroyd a fast cobbler, Martin a decent climber and Tesfamarian gets a shared highest hill stat despite weaker backup stats. Decent support as well for all of them. Not a great team, but definitely a very good team.

Volkswagen

Another team that always makes for a good preview. Wagner is a great sprinter with good backups. Kavasomething is a good allrounder and Zimmermann and Herrmann are ok as well. They’ll get their wins this season.

Warm Cycling

A bit unfortunate to end with this team as this is another team that won’t do anything this year. Come back in a year and it’s a different story, but this year not much is going to happen for them.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Shonak
Thanks for the preview, a nice read and the u23 races are always some of my favourite ones due to the unexpected results often coming out. Hopefully can manage well, some names will leave the team next year to join the pros.
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AbhishekLFC
I think mid-table is along the lines of what I'm expecting from DB as well. Hopefully, our three climbers won't trip each other up too much and can claim some good results. Hopeful that Dimas can pull out a couple of surprises too Smile
 
ivaneurope
Ollfardh wrote:
Telenor

I don’t want to insult anyone, so I hope this is a filler team rather than a managed one. No top riders, no top talents. Leinonen is supposed to lead the team, but how? The only positive thing I can say about this team is that they kept their wages low.


Nah, I'm not that mad to be honest, I knew that this team isn't a world beater - this is sort of a "reality show" aiming at finding the next big star than any real contender. The full name of the team is in fact Telenor Rider Search p/b Polestar.
i.imgur.com/rrQH4R2.png
i.imgur.com/KoxIGiG.png
 
Ripley
Thank you, Ollfardh! I'll note that Bora-Argon is the U23 team of Allianz and something went wrong with the published db, the main team has 29 riders. I heard it's been sorted out with jaxika, maybe Bikex will update the db.

As for Aviva Futura, that came about at the last second, I took 7 weak riders off jandal as a thank you for letting me steal Majka. I would have never signed any of them myself. Smile I was able to add Garcia so we have at least one rider to cheer for and then did a deal with Suntory, exchanging a young pot 6 rider for Fritsch. Hopefully, next season the team will look much bettter, and more British, for now we expect nothing.
i.imgur.com/itY17df.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/avatar.png
 
DaveTwoBob
Thanks for a great preview Ollfardh. Suntory were very lucky with scouting and invested alot in an attempt to defend our U23 title.

Looking forward to the U23 racing, we have some strong opposition.
Manager of Suntory [ICL]
Manager of Kraftwerk Man Machine [Man Game]
 
jandal7
@Ripley - And I am eternally grateful for you taking the 8 worst riders my team has ever seen Smile

Nice to hear some positivity about PureBlack, not sure if our depth without any guaranteed scorers approach will see us near the top or lower-mid-table but looking forward to it Grin
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [PCT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing
[CX] Listerijns & Kiwis

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
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3x i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png x3
i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png
 
df_Trek
just finished to give scores to CT teams in main 5 skills (MO, HIL, TT, COB, SP). I'll post the tables one by one, and I hope in the end to find a way to draft a general classification.
I gave 1 to 5 stars based on the skills of the leader in the categories for each team.
1 to 3 stars for the team built up around the leader/possibility to compete with more than one leader.
1 bonus star for versatility, particular skills combo that could provide better results in several kind of races.
I'll start to post them later this night Wink
 
jseadog1
WAVG much better! :lol:

Getting no respect for Shell from Croatia. The team is of course built around strong leaders that will thrive!

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df_Trek
Let's start with the climbers.
For the leader rating I setted 5 class sorted by MO skill, and I used RES and ACC primarily, and STA REC secondly to allocate borderline cases.
The team was valued by some points in equal consideration: quality of the leader; number of domestiques with high MO skill (>74); MO skill valor of the best domestique; possibility to line up a second rider as leader in another race, without weakening too much the team around first leader.
As versatility bonus I took TT as the obvious choice. It's surely the skill that can help a GC contender to score good points in some stage races and surely in GT. 75 was the minimal valor needed to get this bonus.

i.imgur.com/JXbdz5W.png

I really struggled to fit the team rating, maybe because this was the first of the five tables and I had not in mind how do it yet. I started with a 5 stars scale for teams too, but I found that very hard to separate some borderline cases and to feel difference between teams that sometimes i put in different ranks. Moreover I think that when I'll try to make all together for the general classification that I have in mind this will bring more accurate results.

Feel free to ask how I judged individual cases!
What do you think about this preview format? I have already the other categories prepared! Wink
 
df_Trek
Now the hill skill, that in many cases follows what's found in the first one, but there are also some exception (look at Wilier Triestina!).
I looked again the main skill HIL to set the classes, but I took more in consideration ACC in this beginning process. Finishing touches were apported following STA and RES skill values.
The team were rated in a similar way to the MO skill.
Again I took TT as versatility bonus, for the chance to score points in short stage races with a TT stage, where there aren't big mountains.

i.imgur.com/Vaj0SEf.png


I found an hard choice the versatility bonus, and maybe you can think that there would be better combos, but in the end I chose the one that gave me as a result a little group of elegible teams, that wasn't too uncommon nor too crowded.
 
df_Trek
Time for who fight against the clock!
For the leader I considered a kind of 75/25 TT/PRL to set classes, and then adjustements looking mainly at RES.
The team stars are assigned simply according to the best team that is possible to line up in a TTT.
Versatility bonus is MO because it is fundamental when there are climbs in the TT route.

i.imgur.com/KqVXgg9.png


This was likely the easiest valutation, where I found few problems to allocate the teams.
 
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