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PCT Roundtable analysis 2019 p/b “The Conglomerate”
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Ollfardh
As always, one of the best threads on the forum, thank you guys!

Still a lot of reading about the other teams to do, but I'll give a few comments already. I agree with most of what you say about my team. Great question about Waeytens as well, I have a feeling his failures or wins will decide the top ten or outside the top 20 predictions I completely agree with. Ga

Also one more question for our esteemed experts, how do you feel low MO riders like Van Asbroeck (53) and Vanbilsen (50) will do on pcm18? Will they suffer too much or will they do same as last year?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Marcovdw
Thanks for the azaming write-up, even though I hope you underestimate me again Pfft

In a way you're right, it's a promotion push but not with the most ideal riders to do it. Hope it pays off, otherwise iI need a major rebuild next year.
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redordead
Fantastic writing from everyone. Really good the read about every team, paints a great picture of the whole PCT division Smile

We're outsiders to stay up, but hopefully the switch to PCM18 helps us offset our depth issue by the better breakaway AI.


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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
Bushwackers
Wow guys, that was a really great read. Helped to put some things into context for me as I admittedly haven't followed the PCT as closely the past year.

Croatia, I love how you recognize Abreu as an under the radar point snatcher. I think he's going to be huge this year and I tried to pick out some breakaway races to put on his schedule. He's a new one on my squad that I am very curious about.

Jandal: "Reinhart and Reichenbach are… there." :lol: My thoughts exactly for the past few years... At least they aren't expensive.

Knockout: It will be interesting to see how Spengler does this year. He was trash last year with 80 cobbles, before maxing. He will need a huge jump to be a top-3 guy and I think he will still need a bit of training. I'm banking on the back-up that I brought in from Sauber to help score points in the classics this year.

Thank you guys, that was a blast to read and extremely insightful!
 
Yellow Jersey
Best read of the year! Loved the insight on my team, in my viewpoint it really isn't ALL about Summerhill as I made the effort to fill every gap and the points I'm expecting to save my season, although I think Sumerhill's presence makes me rather safe with confidence, is that riders like Seboka/Pantano/Zordan are able to really fall into their own place with breakaways, KOM's, ilusive stage wins, there's a lot of depth in the team and I thoroughly believe in them to perform in the quiet races and get some points consistently throughout the year Smile
 
roturn
That`s some special analysis and you guys did a lot of effort for some great discussions.

Really like this kind of "preview/discussion" and then the "outcome" from last year as well.
 
TheManxMissile
Mresuperstar wrote:
Thanks for the entertaining read again!

I'd just like to point out the Yates for Altur deal sent 725k my way (not the other way around) which provided the funds needed for the training. Not sure if some of you thought it was the other way around and I paid out. Either way, an interesting discussion regardless. Altur will be missed, but he is in good hands with TMM and back in the Pro Tour where he belongs.

Also, worth mentioning, Yates affordable wage played a big factor in the swap. I needed to clear cap space with Tenorio's hefty contract.


Certainly made your teams preview far more entertaining to read! If you had paid me both our transfers would have been wildly different. At least now Yates will get to 2020 PT with a respectable 81HL rather than stuck on 77HL in the PCT...

________

As always a great in depth preview. Always something interesting to pick out, and this season it's obviously the new game. Was expecting more comparisions to previous seasons and teams, but i guess with the new game you steered away from that as we just don't know what will happen.

Also quite nice to track my former riders, and other targets from transfers. Talansky given a bit of short sell at Valio (although i agree they are in difficulty).

PCT always fun with the PTHC against PT squads, and some CT competitions as well. A challenging and close season awaits!
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
Croatia14
TheManxMissile wrote:
Mresuperstar wrote:
Thanks for the entertaining read again!

I'd just like to point out the Yates for Altur deal sent 725k my way (not the other way around) which provided the funds needed for the training. Not sure if some of you thought it was the other way around and I paid out. Either way, an interesting discussion regardless. Altur will be missed, but he is in good hands with TMM and back in the Pro Tour where he belongs.

Also, worth mentioning, Yates affordable wage played a big factor in the swap. I needed to clear cap space with Tenorio's hefty contract.


Certainly made your teams preview far more entertaining to read! If you had paid me both our transfers would have been wildly different. At least now Yates will get to 2020 PT with a respectable 81HL rather than stuck on 77HL in the PCT...


To be completely honest I can not believe that you paid the fee TMM. For me it was the only logical option this way round, I didn't even consider it to be differently Grin
 
Sykkel_Freak
Wow, what an awesome read. Fantastic job! Grin

The research question you posed for my team is very interesting and you all make some very good points. I wanted a more rounded team this year, so quite a few riders were released in renewals because they no longer fit into the team, while a few riders were released because I felt there were obtainable alternatives that were better, or as good, but cheaper. Certainly, I did not predict how tight the market would be this year, so I might have underestimated the transfer value of some of the riders I released. Favilli for example, who was not a rider I felt I could fit into my team anymore, had struggled to find teams in the previous few seasons, so I chose to release him rather than risk sacking him. In this year’s window, he would probably have provided some good sales value, however. On Guarnieri, I agree that I probably should have stretched a little further in renewals. In the end, I re-signed him for wages that were actually less than what he originally demanded, but almost certainly more than what he would have been willing to accept.

I love to see a few of my riders mentioned as possible riders to overperform. We’ve certainly put a lot of weight on fighters this year, so I hope we’ll be rewarded for that! Meanwhile, not so happy to see Moschella mentioned as a possible problem rider, though I unfortunately can’t say I disagree with Abhishek’s comments Pfft We tried hard to sign a good stage racer, but when priced out of all of my targets, I might have been too quick in jumping on the alternative to sign Moschella and train Breen. Though we will avoid mountains as much as we can, Moschella, Bonnin and De Marchi will almost always be together when we can’t, so there’s certainly a possibility we will lose points on this.

So, with regards to rankings, it seems like we’re broadly regarded as a promotion challenger. I hope you’re right, and that was also my feeling post-transfers. Having now done all race selection and race planning, I am however a lot more uncertain that I’ve struck the right balance in my team to be more than a mid-table team. I would certainly need some luck and good scoring from my fighters to be in with a shot of promotion, but here’s hoping!

Again, thanks for an awesome read! I still have quite a bit to go through, but so far enjoy reading your thoughts on the division, the different teams and the impact of PCM18!
 
sammyt93
Croatia predicts us higher than even I do :lol:

The original plan was Hirschi + Slagter + Ranaweera + a top stage racer but we struck out on Cattanneo, Choi, Keinath, Konig and Intxausti.

When we realised we were going to have to reconsider we decided to make sure we will have a strong squad when Hirschi maxes.

We decided to fill the squad with a mix of strong regional talents and riders who we hope will have some value in either trades or sales if they end up being less needed than initially thought.

Considering the amount of talents I'm disappointed our 2021/2022 squad didn't get a mention for Brightest future.

The lack of ACC might hurt us, but we did try to get riders that are more stage racers than explosive climbers so hopefully that will be beneficial in the long run. We were kind of banking on it being a lot less important than the last game.
 
valverde321
Great work guys. I think its maybe valid to point out that Sibilla isn't as strong as he looks, but I got him for pennies and he fills out a gap in the team. As it was mentioned I think cobbles is the one terrain that co-leaders work very well in anyway, so if it helps the team add even 100-200 points that could be the difference between promoting or not imo.

Also yes I regret selling Choi. I only needed an extra 300k or so to afford Kinoshita's training and I think Serry could be a very underrated rider but I had enough cap space to still make all my other moves too. My main reason for selling was to hopefully get Yates actually, but I couldnt beat Mre's offer obviously.
 
knockout
Thanks everyone for the positive feedback. Much appreciated Grin

Bushwackers wrote:
Wow guys, that was a really great read. Helped to put some things into context for me as I admittedly haven't followed the PCT as closely the past year.

Knockout: It will be interesting to see how Spengler does this year. He was trash last year with 80 cobbles, before maxing. He will need a huge jump to be a top-3 guy and I think he will still need a bit of training. I'm banking on the back-up that I brought in from Sauber to help score points in the classics this year.

Thank you guys, that was a blast to read and extremely insightful!


If this would still be pcm15 i would have been a lot more negative on Spenglers chances and would have expected him to bust hard again. But the change of game could come at the right time for you. I'm not convinced that he will be a clear cut top 3 guy but i dont think we will see a clear hierarchy of cobblers like we used to do the last few years. More surprise winners and more disappointments for the top guys should help those like Spengler too. and thats the theory - racing will show sth entirely different. Pfft
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knockout
sammyt93 wrote:
Considering the amount of talents I'm disappointed our 2021/2022 squad didn't get a mention for Brightest future.

The lack of ACC might hurt us, but we did try to get riders that are more stage racers than explosive climbers so hopefully that will be beneficial in the long run. We were kind of banking on it being a lot less important than the last game.


There is certainly a lot of bias towards some type of riders amongst the contributers of the preview. High acc guys, high flat guys, cb/hi hybrids, stuff like that while TT stats, high RES and those are probably underrated. While we try to get rid of those biases at times those will always be there and is seen in both rankings predictions and statements. I wouldnt be surprised if e.g Iberia with their Hi/TT leader would be one of the most underrated teams in my predictions while I have Delvaux who hit my linkings a lot, are rated very highly - maybe too high?

Similar effects are also why we might rate other talent setups slightly higher. In your case the high risk of relegation would hurt your longterm outlook. If id be confident that you avoid relegation then youd be for sure one of the most interesting teams for the future but how well can you recover from relegating and can other teams overtake you when they stay in pct and get the benefit of the way higher cap? Can you even keep Slagter and Hirschi in CT? Those are the kind of questions that are a bit concerning when discussing brightest future teams Wink
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Bjartne
Im lost for words, what an outstanding job you've done! Thank you so much! I will have to bookmark this page in order to get through everything. This is what makes the pcmdaily-community so good. Fantastic job guys! Smile
 
Scorchio
Fantastic work lads, took me over an hour to read through everything, so the time and effort put in to create must be massive, chapeau!

I see a lot to agree with, and other things to disagree with, everyone of us holds a slightly different subjective view-point informed by different inputs and interpretations. However in terms of the overall ranking I'd only have minor variations in general with your 'average' output; certainly not much disagreement on the clearest promotion/relegation candidates from me.

Regarding my own team, pleased to see some recognition/liking for Sepulveda, who I think better suits the PCT calendar options than the CT fair he had last season. Hopefully his training helps a little as well. A good outcome this season is necessary to justify the overpay on wages required to secure his services in FA battle; he's not going to be a race winner, but consistent solid placings a la Berhane's trajectory last season (which we hope for a good repeat of from him as well) would gather good points in races where we really struggled last season. I think that Croatia would be relieved if he could see our calendar planning, as Sepulveda gets a good number of opportunities to lead in appropriate profile races. Ji is in general paired as support/back-up for Berhane, Betancourt covers the 1-day hill races, Boily and Sepulveda split the appropriate stage races. Hopefully our calendar selection and planning pans out.

Most observations are correct regarding our lack of intent to look towards promotion - its not on our near term agenda/trajectory. Particularly with the market dynamics, depth was the only viable route to try and improve somewhat, and hopefully has been achieved to ensure a smoother PCT ride this season!

With the season already underway, I'm sure we will all be looking out for tell-tale signs across the first number of races of how the PCM18 AI is going to pan out, hopefully it copes well with the MG matrix, and we see a lot of good quality racing without too much crazy randomness.
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Croatia14
@all: Thank you for the very nice words! It obviously took us a lot of effort and also planning, but seeing that people enjoy it really makes it worth the efforts.

@Scorchio: That sounds really good, and in fact is what I assumed and why I think you won't have relegation trouble. I still think though that Boily f.e. would be a better choice for most 1-day hill races and that Jis wage could've been invested better. I like your approach in terms of calm future planning a lot.

@Valverde: I am not sure whether you're better of with him or whether giving leadership opportunities to the Kuroedas would've been the better choice though. Can follow your argument for the mandatory cobbles and the cheap price though. You should really regret the sale btw Pfft

@sammy: Your Down Under Classic certainly changed my mind Pfft In PCM15 I would've really condemned your idea of the low ACC approach, with PCM18 it may excuse you. Time will tell. Future looks great though!

@Sykkel_Freak: I can follow your argumentation. If you insulted Guarnieri, then you can consider this free agency a success even more than before. I remember I did not have the guts to do a similar move after insulting Per. While I kinda like the training of Breen, I think that some sort of stage racer would've been nicer, even if the market was horrible for that this year. Moschella can't be the right decision though, I'd have preferred if you would've gotten nobody instead of him Pfft But overall, as said, you did very well in accumulating loads of gems to your team.

@YellowJersey: I think you are somehow in a similar situation to Swisslion. The big star needs to carry your squad. You've got more depth, he's got the better secondary leaders. I would love to see you stay up, and teams managed to do so with a tactic like this (Azteca before they got relegated, Reddit last year), but we also had teams failing. Let's see what the time tells us about this...

@Bushwackers: Yeah I remember being mad about loosing him to you when my cash wasn't very fluent due to bidding on a certain stage racing free agent. I think he'll be fantastic. I can also follow your thoughts regarding jandals and knockouts comments, though with all being better than in their last appearance I think all of Reichenbach, Spengler and Reinhardt can be solid scorers for you to accumulate promotion points.

@redordead: While you may be an outsider from the previews, your team with Beltran alone surely has the upside to turn everything around!

@marcovdw: Well if we underestimated you again and you are right than hats off to how you built that team! Certainly there is your signature written under the team, and I see the promotion push. Thought Claeys would look a little bit too "Betancur-ish" for you though.

@Ollfahrd: I disagree with the idea of Waeytens having that much of an impact. As said, the duo of van Asbroeck and Gaviria should really determine your season. As to the mountain question: Vanbilsen and van Asbroeck should almost face no impact, if you don't use them in hard stage races (I suppose you don't). The hilly cobbles of PCT don't really look "mountain-considerable" to me.

@tamijo: Thanks for taking on that point. We weren't that sure about keeping this question as it's not really division related, but your thoughts on those imply that it was a good decision to keep it in which is nice.

@viking90: Too many Scandinavian teams in the division... Pfft but yeah, overlooked that - would've been cap juggling miracles anyway looking at that team strength!

@fjhoekie: It will be very interesting to see what you make out of your position, as you are maybe the safest team to be sure that it stays in PCT for next season imo. You've got the base for both a rebuild and a promotion push in 2020.

@Mresuperstar: As mentioned, I can't believe you got the cash, so it certainly was an amazing deal for you. Also I think this in combination with the training wil be the key of your promotion push.

@bbl: I think there were options left, just not the ideal ones you were searching for. At least in other departments than stage racing there was quite some quality left on the market. It seems like a more aggressive approach in transfers could've aided your push. On Fabbro I kind-of agree, but as knockout mentioned even here there were other options available. Still I think that you'll survive if planned decently as the division seemingly got slightly worse while you didn't and the game change shouldn't hurt you too much.
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