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QCA prediction for PT 2019
Croatia14
QCA Prediction for the PT 2019


By taking in numbers for each of the five important categories, the QCA prediction wants to find out which teams may score the best around the block. Leader qualities as well as depth determine the score from 0 as worst to 10 as best possible. The sixth category is the hybrid category, where riders with overperformance type of stats and once for the few mixed-skillset races like ToNE are gathered. By assessing each team, there is a ranking for each stat and also a final PT prediction.

The final score is not only the average of the 6th categories. The climbing category f.e. has a higher importance than the time trial category. On top, categories importance are lower when the score is low and higher when the score is high, to also draw the impacts of calendar choice and exponentially higher scoring with top class riders into the game.

i.imgur.com/1uCsPwC.jpg

At the top you can see Moser leading the standings and should quite comfortably considered favourite. Behind a very very close bunch from 2nd down to 10th which seem like one could beat the other quite easily. Festina in second is quickly followed by Evonik and Isostar, but many teams like Aker, Grieg, AirFrance, Puma, Generali and T-Mobile are well within reach.

Sligtly lower you find a couple of "safe" midtable teams like Gazelle and eBuddy, most likely also Bennelong, Spar and Repsol and possibly even EA Vesuvio that seem to be on the bright side of the relegation zone, but surely not complete safe calls.

Long lasting top-class PT team Aegon could feel the aging Boom and the sale of Swift hunting back on them, as they seem to be the first team in the real dangerzone. They win the close battle over Indosat, Farfetch and Tinkoff that follow behind in a very close call. None of those are far away of the 6 ahead either though. Podium Ambition and Fablok seem like the most probable teams in trouble at this point, but stranger things than those surviving have happened already.

The ranking is obviously not the wisdom's best call, in fact it has been prepared on bus rides and flights on holidays. The numbers especially at the very top are quite narrow, so small changes can already have a significant impact. Don't hesitate to propose changes, there is certainly room for discussion. If many of those numbers are meant to be changed throughout the debate, there may be a second raking at the end after community-proposed changes.
Edited by Croatia14 on 31-10-2019 19:46
 
knockout
Finally sth to look at for PT teams Grin

For me the key take away is how close the upper table is. One could have easily changed the algorithm slightly and have me as 9th best team.
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Aquarius97
I'm finding annoying that this rates my TT squad higher than my mountain squad :lol:

But i like that somehow it puts my team above the relegation line, though it seems it's because other teams are even worse, not because mine is any good :lol:
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Heine
I like the ones by SN better :-p

Shows what I think most of us see, we are going to have a really tight division this season. Manye teams that can go anywehere from relegation to top 10 imo
 
SotD
I must admit I would be hugely surprised to see us in the top 3 region. Top 5 might be possible, if Coquard works well, otherwise I could see us being somewhere between 5-10.
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Croatia14
@knockout: Exactly. But as this emphasizes the mountain stat quite heavily I'm sure your team wouldn't have gotten much worse with a different approach Pfft

@Aquarius: Well it's always about the relations, and there I'm not sure whether your Stage Racers are capable to compete with the best of the best but your TTers surely do. An 8 for TT would've been more appropriate maybe though.

@Heine: Well you are in the top group Pfft I can imagine that you end up differently, wasn't fully expecting your team that high up tbh (without training Trentin or Guldhammer). Still looks very solid for some huge results for you, and your team should consistently score well in terms of leader depth especially.

@SotD: With how your squad looks like, you've got everything set for a great season. Whether you'll win it all I am not sure, but for a Top3 you should be the 2nd best candidate imo.

 
ember
Very nice work, Croatia14! Must say I enjoy reading your short thoughts and watching the prediction Smile

I'll admit I find a fifth place very, very flattering. It will need a perfect season from Taaramäe, who I hope has a decent shot at making just that. The difficult part is that it will also take a perfect season by Swift, which I'm honestly not that sure about, seeing his schedule and the lottery sprints can be at times. But fingers crossed we can manage to be "up there", safe from relegation.

Also think Heine puts it well, this ranking only underlines that there's very little separating many of the teams, as I would include a couple more teams in the "safe, but not completely safe" zone compared to what you've done, including my own team Pfft
 
knockout
As if 3rd isnt already too high Pfft
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SotD
I think sprinters are highly overrated in the scheme, which sees ember and myself fly way higher than we should. Remember that the best GC riders score twice the amount of points as the best sprinters.
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Croatia14
@ember: Thank you very much! Well I still hope you sent Taaramae to the Tour, cause he would dominate and is by far the best rider for mountain GTs. What I also really liked about your team is that the sprint train with Scully + Dakteris or Haddi fits very well to the skillset of Swift, which is why I think your team will do great, especially as versatile roleurs like Oss will benefit from the gravity of the best sprinter.

Who'd you propose for this zone? I think with two world stars + very fitting support you should be safe already if planned well. And you've got those very nice in between riders that will score a couple of more points than other riders which should give you the edge over those mid-table teams you compare yourself with.

@knockout: Well I am not sure about that being too high. You've added Lopez which should be significant already and make up for the loss from GvA to Blythe.

@SotD: While I agree on that GC riders score more, the calculation also includes that. There is a higher multiplier for the mountain stat. Also note how the average of mountain scores is quite a bit higher than the one for other terrains, and thus naturally offers a higher input as there is the extra factorization for higher scores. One could argue that this stat should be higher, but for the secondary climbers especially I think that would be over the top.
 
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matt17br
I think I pretty much agree with the scores for us (you might have actually underrated Theuns and my TTT setup a bit but I think that their strengths might have been taken into consideration in the 'Hybrids' score instead).

I'd be surprised (and extremely pleased) to see my team in the top 10 come the end of the season, but considering how close those numbers are between one team and another that could certainly turn into a relegation spot real quick! This at least gives me some confidence that we have the roster to battle it out in a competitive season Smile

Thanks for the preview!
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Roman
Thanks for doing this Croatia. It is pretty interesting to see Vesuvio being possibly really close to the relegation zone. Would definitely be an end of an era if they go down.
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tastasol
Nice preview! A total of 1 point in sprints and hills combined is painful to see, but can't argue about it tbh Pfft Don't think we will manage top 10, but I would certainly love to see it happening, as I think we are in a slight transition season.
 
Croatia14
@matt17br: Theuns and some TTT guys indeed scored in both categories Smile I think your team looks very good for this season, even without the big fish Pfft but Gesink should be one of the riders that benefits the most from the game change so I think he's a good bet here. Thanks for the nice words!

@Roman: Cheers roman! Yeah I still have a hard time thinking like this, but Gastauer suffers a lot under the hill training. I think van der Lijke could be the factor that saves the team this year.

@tastasol: Well you've got 2 stars of the scene. Phinney, with normal planning, should come 2nd at the Vuelta at least, Wisniowski is the 2nd best cobbler in the game and you've got plenty of assets I admire you for. With smart planning a Top10 is no given but very much possible imo.

 
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