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PCM.daily » PCM.daily's Management Game » [Cont-Man-Game] General
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[PCT] Predictions vs Final Results
matt17br
Here's first of all a look at the Final Results compared to the Average Predicted Results (APR), along with the Highest (HPP) and Lowest Predicted Position (LPP).

FinalTeamAPRDiffHPPLPP
1pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/wha.png Wiesenhof-Andrtiz1013
2pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.png Porto - Prio2013
3pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/hgb.png Hugo Boss107322
4pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/sva.png Strava18141030
5pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.png Team Telkom for Africa116423
6pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/spy.png Spotify - Haglöfs71318
7pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vuk.png VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff19121525
8pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ayu.png Ayubowan!91713
9pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/mei.png Meiji - JR East3-626
10pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/gen.png Generali - AXA1661026
11pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/col.png Coldeportes5-6514
12pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/alm.png Arrinera120814
13pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/boi.png Banc na hÉireann8-5515
14pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/npn.png Novatek-Panarmenian.net151720
15pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vad.png Valio - DeLaval2491927
16pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/nns.png Netia - Norske Skog26101929
17pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ubs.png Team UBS4-13412
18pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ers.png Eritel - Sonatrach14-41021
19pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/kar.png Karcher-Adira6-13414
20pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/eus.png Euskaltel2551729
21pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/cpl.png Compal-Merida20-11628
22pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ino.png Indosat - ANZ13-9820
23pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ssc.png Shimano - Siam Cement17-6628
24pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/flc.png Flores - Ceitec21-32025
25pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam2942629
26pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vtb.png Vontobel23-31529
27pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN2701827
28pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/avc.png Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo2801729
29pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ioc.png In-n-Out p/b Carrefour22-71624
30pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/san.png SanCor3002330

Below, however, you can find a perhaps more interesting look at how off every prediction was with regard to each team.

MARSUPILAMI

Total Score: 213/465; 252 Positions Off; 46% Accuracy
Spoiler
PredTeamFinalDifference
1pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.png Porto - Prio21
2pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/mei.png Meiji - JR East97
3pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/wha.png Wiesenhof-Andrtiz12
4pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/kar.png Karcher-Adira1915
5pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/boi.png Banc na hÉireann138
6pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ssc.png Shimano - Siam Cement2317
7pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ubs.png Team UBS1710
8pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ino.png Indosat - ANZ2214
9pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.png Team Telkom for Africa54
10pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ers.png Eritel - Sonatrach188
11pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/alm.png Arrinera121
12pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/npn.png Novatek-Panarmenian.net142
13pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ayu.png Ayubowan!85
14pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/col.png Coldeportes113
15pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vtb.png Vontobel2611
16pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vuk.png VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff79
17pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/avc.png Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo2811
18pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/spy.png Spotify - Haglöfs612
19pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/cpl.png Compal-Merida212
20pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/flc.png Flores - Ceitec244
21pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ioc.png In-n-Out p/b Carrefour298
22pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/hgb.png Hugo Boss319
23pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/san.png SanCor307
24pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vad.png Valio - DeLaval159
25pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/nns.png Netia - Norske Skog169
26pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/gen.png Generali - AXA1016
27pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN270
28pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam253
29pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/eus.png Euskaltel209
30pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/sva.png Strava426

sgdanny

Total Score: 303/465; 162 Positions Off; 65% Accuracy
Spoiler
PredTeamFinalDifference
1pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/wha.png Wiesenhof-Andrtiz10
2pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/mei.png Meiji - JR East97
3pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.png Porto - Prio21
4pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ubs.png Team UBS1713
5pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.png Team Telkom for Africa50
6pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/col.png Coldeportes115
7pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/boi.png Banc na hÉireann136
8pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/hgb.png Hugo Boss35
9pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ino.png Indosat - ANZ2213
10pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ssc.png Shimano - Siam Cement2313
11pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/alm.png Arrinera121
12pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ayu.png Ayubowan!84
13pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/spy.png Spotify - Haglöfs67
14pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/kar.png Karcher-Adira195
15pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/gen.png Generali - AXA105
16pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/cpl.png Compal-Merida215
17pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/sva.png Strava413
18pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/npn.png Novatek-Panarmenian.net144
19pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vad.png Valio - DeLaval154
20pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/flc.png Flores - Ceitec244
21pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ers.png Eritel - Sonatrach183
22pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vuk.png VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff715
23pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ioc.png In-n-Out p/b Carrefour296
24pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/nns.png Netia - Norske Skog168
25pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN272
26pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vtb.png Vontobel260
27pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/avc.png Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo281
28pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam253
29pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/eus.png Euskaltel209
30pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/san.png SanCor300

matt17br

Total Score: 321/465; 144 Positions Off; 69% Accuracy
Spoiler
PredTeamFinalDifference
1pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/wha.png Wiesenhof-Andrtiz10
2pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.png Porto - Prio20
3pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/spy.png Spotify - Haglöfs63
4pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/mei.png Meiji - JR East95
5pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/hgb.png Hugo Boss32
6pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ubs.png Team UBS1711
7pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/kar.png Karcher-Adira1912
8pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/boi.png Banc na hÉireann135
9pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ayu.png Ayubowan!81
10pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/alm.png Arrinera122
11pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/col.png Coldeportes110
12pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ers.png Eritel - Sonatrach186
13pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ino.png Indosat - ANZ229
14pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/sva.png Strava410
15pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/npn.png Novatek-Panarmenian.net141
16pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/gen.png Generali - AXA106
17pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.png Team Telkom for Africa512
18pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/eus.png Euskaltel202
19pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/nns.png Netia - Norske Skog163
20pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/flc.png Flores - Ceitec244
21pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vuk.png VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff714
22pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vtb.png Vontobel264
23pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN274
24pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ioc.png In-n-Out p/b Carrefour295
25pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/cpl.png Compal-Merida214
26pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam251
27pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vad.png Valio - DeLaval1512
28pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ssc.png Shimano - Siam Cement235
29pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/avc.png Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo281
30pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/san.png SanCor300

tastasol

Total Score: 319/465; 146 Positions Off; 68% Accuracy
Spoiler
PredTeamFinalDifference
1pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.png Porto - Prio21
2pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/wha.png Wiesenhof-Andrtiz11
3pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/hgb.png Hugo Boss30
4pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/spy.png Spotify - Haglöfs62
5pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/boi.png Banc na hÉireann138
6pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/mei.png Meiji - JR East93
7pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ayu.png Ayubowan!81
8pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/alm.png Arrinera124
9pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/kar.png Karcher-Adira1910
10pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/gen.png Generali - AXA100
11pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/col.png Coldeportes110
12pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ubs.png Team UBS175
13pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/npn.png Novatek-Panarmenian.net141
14pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ino.png Indosat - ANZ228
15pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/sva.png Strava411
16pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/cpl.png Compal-Merida215
17pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ers.png Eritel - Sonatrach181
18pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN279
19pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ssc.png Shimano - Siam Cement234
20pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/flc.png Flores - Ceitec244
21pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/nns.png Netia - Norske Skog165
22pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ioc.png In-n-Out p/b Carrefour297
23pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.png Team Telkom for Africa518
24pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/eus.png Euskaltel204
25pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vuk.png VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff718
26pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam251
27pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vad.png Valio - DeLaval1512
28pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/avc.png Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo280
29pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vtb.png Vontobel263
30pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/san.png SanCor300

jph27

Total Score: 309/465; 156 Positions Off; 66% Accuracy
Spoiler
PredTeamFinalDifference
1pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/wha.png Wiesenhof-Andrtiz10
2pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.png Porto - Prio20
3pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/mei.png Meiji - JR East96
4pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.png Team Telkom for Africa51
5pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/col.png Coldeportes116
6pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ubs.png Team UBS1711
7pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/spy.png Spotify - Haglöfs61
8pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/kar.png Karcher-Adira1911
9pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ayu.png Ayubowan!81
10pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/sva.png Strava46
11pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ino.png Indosat - ANZ2211
12pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ers.png Eritel - Sonatrach186
13pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/gen.png Generali - AXA103
14pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/alm.png Arrinera122
15pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/boi.png Banc na hÉireann132
16pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ioc.png In-n-Out p/b Carrefour2913
17pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/hgb.png Hugo Boss314
18pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ssc.png Shimano - Siam Cement235
19pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vad.png Valio - DeLaval154
20pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/npn.png Novatek-Panarmenian.net146
21pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vuk.png VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff714
22pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/flc.png Flores - Ceitec242
23pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/avc.png Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo285
24pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/eus.png Euskaltel204
25pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vtb.png Vontobel261
26pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/nns.png Netia - Norske Skog1610
27pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN270
28pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/cpl.png Compal-Merida217
29pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam254
30pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/san.png SanCor300

SportingNonsense

Total Score: 325/465; 140 Positions Off; 70% Accuracy
Spoiler
PredTeamFinalDifference
1pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/wha.png Wiesenhof-Andrtiz10
2pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.png Porto - Prio20
3pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/mei.png Meiji - JR East96
4pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ubs.png Team UBS1713
5pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/col.png Coldeportes116
6pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.png Team Telkom for Africa51
7pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/npn.png Novatek-Panarmenian.net147
8pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/spy.png Spotify - Haglöfs62
9pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/hgb.png Hugo Boss36
10pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/kar.png Karcher-Adira199
11pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ers.png Eritel - Sonatrach187
12pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/alm.png Arrinera120
13pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ayu.png Ayubowan!85
14pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/boi.png Banc na hÉireann131
15pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vuk.png VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff78
16pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/gen.png Generali - AXA106
17pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/eus.png Euskaltel203
18pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vtb.png Vontobel268
19pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/sva.png Strava415
20pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ino.png Indosat - ANZ222
21pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ioc.png In-n-Out p/b Carrefour298
22pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/ssc.png Shimano - Siam Cement231
23pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/cpl.png Compal-Merida212
24pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vad.png Valio - DeLaval159
25pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/flc.png Flores - Ceitec241
26pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam251
27pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN270
28pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/avc.png Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo280
29pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/nns.png Netia - Norske Skog1613
30pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/san.png SanCor300

Final Ranking
Spoiler
RankPredictorScore
1.SportingNonsense325
2.matt17br321
3.tastasol319
4.jph27309
5.sgdanny303
6.MARSUPILAMI213

Manager of pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/ged.png Generali pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/ged.png
 
http://v.ht/Matt17
jt1109
I feel like this just proves that PCT is the most Manager dependent league out of the three the combination of needing to choose your schedule and most teams having developed over at least a year means Planning is paramount

Side note Fantastic to see Compal Merida being competitive and staying up easily Bjarnte first few seasons were very tough but he's coming into his own now

Also Swedbank going up is terrific to see another long term name along with Porto and Volkswagen
 
SotD
There are Lso 6 more teams than the CT and PT :-)
i.imgur.com/lVIiCkA.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/manager.png
pcmdaily.com/images/awards/2015/Manmanager.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/teamhq.png
 
Gustavovskiy
It's outstanding how Strava managed to fool everyone and finish in promotion area. Much like Visitukraine tbh. Kudos Shonak and jp!

And thanks jt, it's great to be back up in the PT. However, I definitely agree with you that PCT provides the most work/fun to be a part of!
Manager of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/duo.png Duolingo pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/duo.png
 
Ollfardh
Nice to see some very accurate predictions. Even nicer everyone did not see me make it and were proven wrong. But not as spectacular as what Strava, VisitUkraine and Netia did of course. Also In-n-Out doing the exact opposite of us, no one saw them go down and yet they could only keep one team behind them.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Shonak
Mars prediction probably the greatest prediction mistake in a very long time. Boy am I glad Strava proved him wrong Smile

Overall, SN with the honours of taking the prediction win, however I feel like previous years have been far better predicted. This is probably due to the enhancing quality of riders (statinflation etc). I imagine the mountain overload was hard to make out and see through, especially with the selection of stage races in mind.

Thanks matt.
Unleash the Landa!
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/team.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/manager.png

"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
"Landismo never dies" - Landa

 
Shonak
Gustavovskiy wrote:
It's outstanding how Strava managed to fool everyone and finish in promotion area. Much like Visitukraine tbh. Kudos Shonak and jp!

Thanks. Alongside Lierse, we profited immensely of the non-interest in cobbles, this is probably largely due down to Summerhill's dominance in the previous year. When I saw the lack of interest in the race band choices and choosing only pavéd goals, my plan was pretty simple.

Maybe many managers thought that they wouldn't fight for the win bc of Summerhill. BPost as a former PT team lost almost exclusively to Summerhill and he was even stronger this year at 83cbs due to training. Thus I think many didn't see much point in investing into cobbles and preferred the overcrowded mountain stage races. At least the race bands were hardly selective when it comes to cobbles, so as a team it was viable to focus on them and build a strong scoring team because the scoring options were just pretty big. You basically only had to fight Summerhill with a strong enough team, something I hinted at in my Team HQ interviews. It is nice that whilst Lierse saved their long-term development plans of the squad with a fine campaign on the pavé, for us a few additional scorers were enough to even make promotion. Of course we also had some luck along the way but we underperformed many times too, so I think it maintains the same level in the end.

I hope the cobbles will be more balanced in the coming season and the interest increases in them, otherwise I predict Lierse for direct promotion tbh just by winning everything on the pavé.
Unleash the Landa!
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/team.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/manager.png

"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
"Landismo never dies" - Landa

 
Croatia14
Shonak wrote:
I hope the cobbles will be more balanced in the coming season and the interest increases in them, otherwise I predict Lierse for direct promotion tbh just by winning everything on the pavé.


Then hope for Isostar promoting via disbands Wink
 
knockout
I don't think that Summerhill was the tipping point for the low interest I cobbles. I rather think it has to do with the teams that promotes into PT the previous season. Most of them had a big focus on cobbles while the teams with big climbers basically all remained in PCT for another season.

From SNs 2015 mathematic preview:

Northern Classics

1pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/bpo.png Team Bpost:VanspeybrouckAlbertStallaert
2pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/amx.png AMEX-Navigon:BaugniesBreschelDe Haes
3pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN:SummerhillCoronelFarrar
4pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/evo.png Evonik - ELKO:BoonenFlaksisIngels
5pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/aeg.png Aegon - Lavazza:VanmarckeBoomNooytens
6pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/blk.png Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish:ThomasGrashevSparling
7pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/tom.png Team TomTom:MaesVerbistSchoonbroodt
8pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/gzl.png Gazelle:VeelersNuyensPozzato
9pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/rge.png Risa - Ergon:TrentinSteursJuul-Jensen
10pcmdaily.com/images/mg/micro/pum.png Team Puma - SAP:DanielDeclerqWeber

It wouldn't be right if Bpost were anything other than the top cobbled team while in PCT and this remains the case this season, despite the new signings from the two American squads. While Bpost have strength elsewhere, Baugnies and Summerhill are likely to really feel the pressure of their team's hopes. Boonen will be a very interesting rider to watch, in his first season away from PT.


Of those 10 teams 6 promoted to PT. 2 disbanded. 1 relegated and only a single team remained in the division. Looking at that it's no surprise that the cobbles were a good way to score.
A Big Thank You To All MG And ICL Reporters!
And To All Who Organize Something On Daily As Well!


pcmdaily.com/images/awards/2015/Manteam.pngpcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/thread.pngpcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/thread.png
 
matt17br
Overall, SN with the honours of taking the prediction win, however I feel like previous years have been far better predicted. This is probably due to the enhancing quality of riders (statinflation etc). I imagine the mountain overload was hard to make out and see through, especially with the selection of stage races in mind.

Yeah, it's hard to remember a year where predictions of any division strayed so far from reality. It's mostly due to how much planning dependant this season was if you wanted to do well.

VisitUkraine's success is mostly due to Cunego's flawless planning, in fact, I for one expected him to do well in the hilly races he would take part to, but didn't think fjhoekie would single-handedly take him to those kinds of races. You can safely say they would have been far from the top 15 if he was planned in a more "obvious" or "secure" way, so taking him to mountainous stage races as well, sort of like Ricco was planned by Aidan. Their other riders performed about right considering their past seasons, but despite the stat decrease, Cunego kept riding in a pretty perfect way.

Strava have proven everyone wrong - and they've fooled me again predictions-wise - because they're objectively doing something incredibly risky, but very high reward as it seems. If the cobbles campaign didn't go so much better than everyone thought, they wouldn't have probably even entered the top 10. Add to that that everyone underestimated Van der Sande capabilities - he was heavily helped by his great stamina - and you can see how they built their success. Heck, had I known that they would be performing so well I probably wouldn't have tipped them for the top 6/7.

I honestly can't really see why everyone was so underrating Netia's chances though. I had them in 19th which is the HPP, but they obviously had a bit more in them. They had Sanchez who couldn't come from a better season, and is one of the riders that was hurt the least by the stat decrease thanks to his low potential. Sure, no one in their right mind would have said he would repeat his performance, but he definitely was among the best puncheurs this season for PCT. Palini also was an important domestique/co-captain for him and let's not forget he was coming from a top 100 season in PT (!), so it wasn't hard to see they would go on to be one of the best puncheurs couples. Vantomme was planned very intelligently and definitely overperformed a bit, though.

Besides these 3 I also heavily underrated Telkom and Valio. I remember writing that they were going to benefit from their objectively dominant climbers depth, but that their domestiques' backups stats weren't high enough for them to aim for a good ranking result. Well clearly I was 100% wrong here! Bit of the same goes for Valio, but here I was even more clueless. To be fair, I did expect Lo Cicero would save them under the right circumstances, but I totally didn't foresee that PCM would consider him the favourite for so many races and so regularly when they lacked great secondary sprinters to help him along the road. This definitely contributed to their good overall finish and made up for their lack of top leadouts.

This same PCM 'bug' did hurt Spotify a bit, who still had a solid season. They had some of the best leadouts and the best or second best sprinter in the division, but the fact Lo Cicero was held in higher regard by the AI made sure Valio would always build a train and Spotify often would not do the same. All in all, these results draw some interesting conclusions that, if we stay with PCM 15 another season like it's highly plausible, will help more attentive managers and their promotion chances, and of course will make sure predictions are closer to PCM's preferences.
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Shonak
@knockout: Yes, definitely. Good catch, however the Summerhill's performances and undoubted legacy in this particular season think helped me him keep the interest low and that the void wasn't filled. Who has interest in riding someone who is winning almost every race by default?

Also, not that it matters much, but three of those 6 promoters were just passer-bys from PT back to PT, whilst Evonik was also just a passer-by in the end, so if there was some long-term cobbled planning going on (like Gazelle I imagine) it wouldn't have much influence on that. Overall last season's cobbled party was strong in overall rankings, maybe with Teunnisen, Zepunkte, Maes and other names, there were some stronger individual riders present tho (I'd have to look up the db for that to confirm..)

Nevertheless, Summerhill scored a lot more points previous season than in this one where the weaker competition was apparently. All the better really for Strava and Lierse that the low interest, big void and Summerhill dominance wasn't met this season, and like I said, we profited immensly off that.

Looking at this table made me think that maybe cobbles mean the way up to promotion. However in the latest SN prediction of the current season, only 3 of the 5 promoters were Top 10 listed cobbled teams and particularly Wiesenhof's Zepunke consisently underperformed. So cobbles alone doesn't make a successful promo-campaign, but maybe that's why at least in Strava's case we could focus on it almost exclusively.
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Shonak
matt17br wrote:
Strava have proven everyone wrong - and they've fooled me again predictions-wise - because they're objectively doing something incredibly risky, but very high reward as it seems. If the cobbles campaign didn't go so much better than everyone thought, they wouldn't have probably even entered the top 10. Add to that that everyone underestimated Van der Sande capabilities - he was heavily helped by his great stamina - and you can see how they built their success. Heck, had I known that they would be performing so well I probably wouldn't have tipped them for the top 6/7.

Van der Sande was a great deal and I think he performed a bit better than where belongs bc of all the 79 sprinters, he has some great back-ups and they come into play when you select the right races, yes. Smile Modolo was unfortunately very erractic, his killer ACC should have seen him at times higher positions + strong hill stats, but alas, what can you do, his sprint is only 78 after all.

As for the cobbles campaign, hm - I noticed that there was a huge deficit of pointscorers and I was lucky that at least Baugnies was bought to a reasonable price, whilst I wouldn't have mind Lierse's guys either. We had a strong CT cobbles campaign and building on that, I had the right helpers for the grunt work.

I'm not sure if it was so risky because a speciality you can plan well upon works wonders in PCT I think but then again, Baugnies could have underperformed like Zepunkte, that's true. I wonder, was it particularly risky for Ferrero to focus exclusively on hills in hindsight then? Sure I would have liked a way better hill squad (no Froome, no Ulissi.. uhm, yeah), maybe this was our biggest flaw, although Vanendert and Gilbert did well enough in the first half of the season.

That said, it was good for me that my cast of supporters (Langeveld, Gaudin, Potts, Van Wyk, Tulik, even Gilbert) were racing aggressively and we formed the races almost everytime when we hit the pavé. You really Strava's and Lierse's team strength and how we proftied off that where other teams were lacking I think. The AI was definitely in our favour but considering our team strength, this was understandable at least. We could always spare a guy to protect Baugnies i.e., whilst also driving the pace, ending up with numerical advantage. So yes I agree risky but with thought behind me thinks. Smile
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What is really interesting about Strava is how they can transcend or adapt to the PT. Looking at the squad there are two riders that can score points on PT level. Baugnies and Vanendaert. And those can't even be expected to score high amounts of points. Vanendaert is a top 20-30 HI rider while Baugnies is a low end top 10 rider - which is OK at PT level.

What is very interesting for me, is the lack of development or easy to sell riders. Laurent Didier, Philippe Gilbert, Claudio Corioni and Bart de Backer are all decreasing in stats, and neither are strong enough to stay interesting for a PT team IMO. Laurent Didier can be kept, but can probably also be replaced by a similar stat'ed rider for 50-60K. Gilbert will be OK to keep, if his wages come down to 50K - which they won't. Corioni will be useless and De Backer will probably be an OK cobbled 5-6th helper. They all have the fact in common that they are not likely to have any worth in terms of sale.

Same goes for Vuillermoz, Belmokhtar, Pfingsten, Tulik, Kriek, Einsle and Zanotti. A very strong negotiator would be able to cash in 400K for them. In total.

Ermin van Wyk and Marc Potts are both stepping up to be decent domestiques.

Jelle Vanendaert was an obvious choice to put training into, but he isn't eligeble.

So left on are riders like Roux, van der Sande, Modolo and Baugnies who are all eligeble for training, but not really a viable solution. Perhaps Baugnies would be with 82COB, but I doubt he would score a significantly higher amount of points. 200 points probably.

So where are Strava going next season? A complete rebuild is IMO needed to stay up. I'm definately looking forward to it. It might be one of the easiest seasons in a while to actually rebuild, as there will be less teams but the same amount of riders. So the problem might not be substancial - but it's definately something to look at. There are obvious teams not to copy from the past two/three seasons... Smile
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Well said, SotD. I see much the same problems of my squad and I go d'accord in your excellent analysis of the squad, which basically is, that we are not good enough for PT. It'll be a fun experience to try to avoid the inevitable relegation actually. I have some ideas for where I'd like to see the team go and some strategies that may help me, but alas, this much depends on the open market of course and one thing is certain: we lack the depth and development that other teams have enjoyed, where they grew naturally over some seasons in the PCT and where they can maybe rely on some youngsters that are hitting peak or some well-earned former leaders that will be useful domestiques. Strava basically consists of a bulk of veterans and some maxed out good PCT riders but no one able to match PT.

Probably for us PT comes actually way too soon, at least looking at the current squad we are surely the weakest for PT. Then again, I wouldn't have wanted to not promote, because maybe this is the only chance we got, so I'm glad we made it. Back in CT, we had a good strategy of depth and continued in PCT with some specialization on cobbles and easy diversification with hills and sprints. Now in PT, due to the fixed race calendar and way higher level, these little tricks won't be enough to score frequently and stay up.

About the teams not to copy from: Great dea, always good to learn from the ones who didn't manage and learn from their mistaikes rather than just to look at the ones who succeeded, but I lack time to go through past seasons to analyse roster, failed planning and scoring opportunities, guess I'll have to trust that I manage through somehow Smile
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matt17br wrote:
VisitUkraine's success is mostly due to Cunego's flawless planning, in fact, I for one expected him to do well in the hilly races he would take part to, but didn't think fjhoekie would single-handedly take him to those kinds of races. You can safely say they would have been far from the top 15 if he was planned in a more "obvious" or "secure" way, so taking him to mountainous stage races as well, sort of like Ricco was planned by Aidan. Their other riders performed about right considering their past seasons, but despite the stat decrease, Cunego kept riding in a pretty perfect way.


Absolutely! Had the goal of signing either Ricco or Cunego pre-season, and was honestly aiming to get the guy in the stage races. However, with the insane amount of quality climbers entering the PCT I decided to go a different route, hills for Cunego, + a few suiting stage races like Japan, and use Nepomnyachsniy for the rest. Gamble paid off, Cunego did ride superbly and without him I would even have been in relegation danger no doubt. Prevar did do good again, winning another HC classic, and my sprinting team has been a bit better compared to last season, mainly by getting Vanderbiest and Ulanowski both in a few top 10s scoring good points, over 160 at Down Under Classic was an amazing start. Nepomnyachsniy has been a bit disappointing though this season, lacking his great results from last year, and adding a whole lot of mediocre to bad results, mainly influenced by the huge amount of climbers of course, and a single bad day in Portugal which cost us a lot there. Will be interesting going up with no leader, or basically no riders who can even score points regularly...
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