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PCM.daily » PCM.daily's Management Game » [Cont-Man-Game] General
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Reviewing the Pre-Season Projections: PCT
Luis Leon Sanchez
And of course, with the season being completed and the final rankings decided we can now review the projections made by those brave souls at the beginning of the season. They expected to fail but we shall now see how badly they have done or in some cases how well.


Continental Tour


Spoiler
The Projectionists


In order to judge the projections made by our 4 worthy contestants I have come up with a rather simple system. For every placing they are incorrect of a said team they will get a point, for example say Movistar finishes 5th and X projected them 10th then X would get 5 points. So the lower the number of points the better.

Actual RankingsStromeonPointsSmowzPointsjph27PointsknockoutPoints
1stNutresaRisa-Ergon6Risa-Ergon6Risa-Ergon6Risa-Ergon6
2ndBonsucroBonsucro0TomTom9Nordeus11ONCE1
3rdONCEONCE0ONCE0ASDA14TomTom8
4thEuskaltelAzteca5Azteca4TomTom7Fletcher11
5thVontrobelTomTom6Nutresa4Bonsucro3Azteca3
6thSiamNutresa5ASDA11Maloja10Nutresa5
7thRisaFletcher8Vontrobel2ONCE4Maloja9
8thAztecaIreland1Maloja8Vontrobel3ASDA9
9thIrelandVontrobel5Sauber3Sauber3Nordeus4
10thEvonikIn-n-Out4Bonsucro8Nutresa9Vontrobel5
11thTomTomMaloja5Fletcher4Euskaltel7Bonsucro9
12thSauberChiquita12Ireland3Ireland3Ireland3
13thNordeusASDA4Evonik3Azteca5Evonik3
14thIn-n-OutAmeriabank6Siam8Fletcher1Ameriabank6
15thFletcherLive Nation11In-n-Out1Ameriabank5In-n-Out1
16thMalojaDell3Ameriabank4Evonik6Dell3
17thASDASauber5Euskaltel13Siam11Live Nation9
18thLierseNordeus5Nordeus5Live Nation8Euskaltel14
19thDellAlpina3Stobart2Dell0Stobart2
20thAmeriabankStobart1Carlsberg3Alpina2Lierse2
21stStobartCarlsberg2Chiquita3In-n-Out7Carlsberg2
22ndAlpinaEuskaltel18Dell3Stobart1Siam16
23rdCarlsbergWarriors2Live Nation3Warriors2Sauber11
24thChiquitaLierse5Alpina2Chiquita0Alpina2
25thWarriorsEvonik15Lierse7Carlsberg2Chiquita1
26thLive NationSiam20Warriors1Lierse8Warriors1


The Points Table:

1stSmowz120
2ndjph27138
3rdknockout146
4thStromeon157


This does indeed mean that the experienced Smowz, who has been a member of the Man-Game for some time now, was the most accurate on average with his predictions. PCT manager jph quite narrowly edged out newcomer Knockout for 2nd while Stromeon's Statistical analysis proved to the be the most incorrect of the 4 which was to be expected because we all know the Man-Game isn't about having just the best few riders.


Team by Team Projection Review


Team NameStromeonSmowzJph27KnockoutAVG Actual FinishDifference
Nutresa6th5th10th6th7th1st6
Bonsucro2nd5th10th11th7th2nd5
ONCE3rd3rd7th2nd4th3rd1
Euskaltel22nd17th11th18th17th4th13
Vontrobel9th7th8th10th9th5th4
Siam26th14th17th22nd20th6th14
Risa1st1st1st1st1st7th-6
Azteca4th4th13th5th6th8th-2
Bank of Ireland8th12th12th12th11th9th2
Evonik25th13th16th13th17th10th7
TomTom5th2nd4th3rd3rd11th-8
Sauber17th9th9th23rd15th12th3
Nordeus18th18th2nd9th12th13th-1
In-n-Out10th15th21st15th15th14th1
Fletcher7th11th14th4th9th15th-6
Maloja11th8th6th7th8th16th-8
ASDA13th6th3rd8th8th17th-9
Lierse24th25th26th20th24th18th6
Dell16th22nd19th16th18th19th-1
Ameriabank14th16th15th14th15th20th-5
Eddie Stobart20th19th22nd19th20th21st-1
Alpina19th24th20th24th22nd22nd0
Carlsberg21st20th25th21st22nd23rd-1
Chiquita12th21st24th25th21st24th-3
Wounded Warrior23rd26th23rd26th25th25th0
Live Nation15th23rd18th17th18th26th-8


As we can see from this table, there were some projections that were very correct. Some not so much. Nutresa and Bonsucro at the top of the rankings were an example of a team that was expected to do well but not extremely well. ONCE was expected to finish in the Top 3 and they did just that.

Two teams at the top who surpassed expectations were Euskaltel and Siam. Expected to finish 17th Euskaltel finished the season in 4th and this result is basically described by their label as "The Breakaway Kings" of the CT/PCT Divisions. Siam on the other hand were carried by none other than Rankings Winner Vitor Rodrigues who dominated the CT division and outscored many teams near the bottom on the CT.

Projected 1st Risa-Ergon ended the season in 7th. They were probably slightly over rated but with a bit more luck and remove the two surprise teams then Risa would have been a definite Top 5 Contender.

Evonik was another team put quite far down in projections by most but had a great season with Geschke in the hilly classics and were probably unfortunate to finish as low as 10th after being higher earlier in the season.

Jesleyh's late entry, Team TomTom had very high expectations but unfortunately their riders didn't quite perform and the projected podium was very distant as they finished 11th.

Fletcher (Disbanding), Maloja (Disbanding) and ASDA all finished well below their projected rankings inside the Top 10 to finish in the mid to late teens. Whether this was because of poor race planning or bad luck is something I didn't follow through out the season.

Lierse were expected to finish 24th but pulled their season together a bit to finish in 18th.

From 21st down to 25th there were no real surprises. These teams had a difficult transfer window and some because of nationality focus. They will hopefully do better next season as they have a base to work from.

And lastly, Live Nation never really got going. Smowz projected them in the bottom 4 while the other 3 around 15th-18th but in the end the team managed by Atlantius took home the wooden spoon. I would not lose hope though because Atlantius will be able to come back from this.



I hope this has been a good read for all, especially the projectionists and the CT managers. I will consider doing a similar thing for PCT and maybe even PT if the support is there. But obviously my opinions wouldn't be as strong because of my lack of knowledge from these divisions.


Pro-Continental Tour


Spoiler
The Projectionists


I have used the exact same system which you PCT managers should be relatively familiar with.

ActualSmowzPointsjph27PointsFroomeDog99PointsFirefly21Points
1stQuickstepQuickstep0Bacardi4Bacardi4Bacardi4
2ndHeinekenVenchi2Quickstep1Quickstep1Meiji8
3rdOzBacardi2Venchi1Venchi1Venchi1
4thVenchiHeineken2Heineken2Heineken2Quickstep3
5thBacardiGazelle2Oz3Meiji5Heineken3
6thCSCJaguar2La Vie 3Metinvest5CSC0
7thGazellePuma6Meiji3Oz4Swedbank11
8thJaguarMeiji2Metinvest3CSC2Jaguar0
9thLa Vie Metinvest2CSC3Swedbank9Puma4
10thMeijiOz7Swedbank8La Vie 1Gazelle3
11thMetinvestCSC5RBC9RBC9Oz8
12thMagnaLa Vie 3Gazelle5Jaguar4Metinvest1
13thPumaMagna1Jaguar5Puma0La Vie4
14thFCBSwedbank4Allianz9Gazelle7Karcher7
15thAMEXFCB1Hornbach9Repsol1Magna3
16thRepsolKazzinc1Privatbank6AMEX1RBC4
17thKazzincAMEX2Puma4Hornbach7Allianz6
18thSwedbankKarcher3FCB4Allianz5Hornbach6
19thKappaRBC1AMEX4Karcher2Repsol3
20thRBCAllianz3Kenya5Kazzinc3Kazzinc3
21stKarcherHornbach3Karcher0Kappa2AMEX6
22ndPrivatbankMobil6Kazzinc5Magna10Kenya3
23rdAllianzKappa4Kappa4Kenya2FCB9
24thHornbachRepsol8Magna12Privatbank2Kappa5
25thKenyaPrivatbank3Mobil3FCB11Privatbank3
26thBulgariaCompal4Repsol10Mobil2Mobil2
27thAfricaKenya2Africa0Compal3Africa0
28thMobilBulgaria2Bulgaria2Africa1Compal2
29thBelarusAfrica2Compal1Bulgaria3Bulgaria3
30thCompalBelarus1Belarus1Belarus1Belarus1



The Points Table:

1stSmowz86
2ndFroomeDog99110
3rdFirefly21116
4thjph27129


Well again it is Smowz who is the best at projections. Clearly his experience in the Man-Game is telling here as he takes this one comfortably ahead of the PCT managers. He only guessed one correctly which was the winner, Quickstep.

FroomDog narrowly taking out 2nd. He did however only manage to get Puma correct. Firefly who only just lost the battle for 2nd guessed CSC-Orbea, Jaguar and Africa correctly. The loser, jph, guessed Karcher and Africa correctly.

So this year in the PCT it was Smowz who is clearly the best when it comes to projections. Maybe next year we won't be as surprised if we all think like Smowz...


Team by Team Projection Review


Team NameSmowzjph27FroomeDog99Firefly21AVGActual FinishDifference
Quickstep1st2nd2nd4th2nd1st1
Heineken4th4th4th5th4th2nd2
Oz10th5th7th11th8th3rd5
Venchi2nd3rd3rd3rd3rd4th-1
Bacardi3rd1st1st1st1st5th-4
CSC-Orbea11th9th8th6th8th6th2
Gazelle5th12th14th10th10th7th3
Jaguar6th13th12th8th10th8th2
La Vie Claire12th6th10th13th10th9th1
Meiji8th7th5th2nd5th10th-5
Metinvest9th8th6th12th9th11th-2
Magna13th24th22nd15th18th12th6
Puma7th17th13th9th11th13th-2
FCB-Polska15th19th25th23rd20th14th6
AMEX17th19th16th21st18th15th3
Repsol24th26th15th19th21st16th5
Kazzinc16th22nd20th20th19th17th2
Swedbank14th10th9th7th10th18th-8
Kappa23rd23rd21st24th23rd19th4
RBC19th11th11th16th14th20th-6
Karcher18th21st19th14th18th21st-3
Privatbank25th16th24th25th22nd22nd0
Allianz20th14th19th17th17th23rd-6
Hornbach21st15th17th18th18th24th-6
Kenya27th20th23rd22nd23rd25th-2
Bulgaria28th28th29th29th29th26th3
Africa29th27th28th27th28th27th1
Mobil22nd25th26th26th25th28th-3
Belarus30th30th30th30th30th29th1
Compal26th29th27th28th27th30th-3


At the head of the table Quickstep, who were predicted to finish 2nd, ended up taking the PCT crown thanks to some top class performances from Spanish Stage Racer Marquez. Heineken were expected to be up in the promotion places and did exactly that to finish in 2nd place after a consistently good season. Venchi in 4th were expected to promote and only just finished off the podium. Predicted 1st Bacardi ended up in 5th but certainly had the team to do slightly better with Uran and Intxausti performing well but probably not as great as they could have been.

The big surprise this year in the promotion places has to be Oz Cycling Project. Everyone's favourite manager Tsmoha got his reward for his reporting with Oz finishing on the final podium spot after being predicted to finish around 8th place.

Magna and FCB-Polska finished above expectations in the mid teen region after being predicted to finish around 20th.

There were more than a few PCT teams that finished well below the expectations of our projectionists. These include Swedbank who finished 18th after a 10th place prediction, RBC who finished 20th after being expected to finish 14th, and lastly the Allianz/Hornbach duo who were expected to finish 17th and 18th but ended up in 23rd and 24th.

At the foot of the table the bottom 5 were as expected. Bulgaria who were predicted to finish 2nd bottom managed to show signs of brightness but ultimately found themselves in the dreaded relegation places, whether they will be relegated or not is still to be seen. Africa were expected to finish down there and they did. Mobil got a projection of 22nd from Smowz and were expected to finish just outside the relegation zone but some hard luck sees them finish in 28th. Belarus were expected by all to take home the wooden spoon but they avoided it by 1 place to finish in 29th. The unfortunate Compal found themselves at the bottom after a long hard season, they were predicted to be bottom 5 but even they would have been surprised to find themselves at the bottom of the pile.

In all it seemed slightly easier to predict the PCT top and bottom but the middle proved to be difficult. The only real surprise team was Oz Cycling Project. Will it be as easy to make projections next year is the next question to be asked?

Edited by Luis Leon Sanchez on 16-03-2015 06:11
 
jandal7
Interesting read, thanks for that!
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Bjartne
Cool! Especially the team for team projection. Many teams were placed in the correct "group" but then you had, as you mentioned some teams that under-performed, and Siam and Euskaltel that really surprised all of us.
 
Mresuperstar
I'd like to see a PCT one. Smile

Always fun to hold the prediction makers accountable.

Congrats to Smowz for using his crystal ball to "win" the prediction battle for the mainly newbie division.
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Kentaurus
Great review of the season, love comparing the before and after. Shows just how hard predicting can be.
Of the 104 placements, only 5 were correctly placed (Bonsucro, Once - Stromeon; Once - Smowz; Dell, Chiquta - jph27).
Two (Alpina, Wounded Warrior) were correctly placed when the average of the four predictions was taken.
The collective average of the predictors, averaged being off by 4.65 positions.

Just some more fun with it.
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baseballlover312
Everyone predicted me near the bottom, and that's where I ended up. But hey, somebody has to fill those spots.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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Heine
I did something like this in an earlier season. Seem to remember Smowz winning then aswell (prediction king?)

Great work and thread! You are really doing a great job contributing to the game without being a reporter
 
jph27
Great work LLS! Have to be happy with Second as a first place predictee, would love to see a PCT version Smile
 
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Smowz
Mresuperstar wrote:
I'd like to see a PCT one. Smile

Always fun to hold the prediction makers accountable.

Congrats to Smowz for using his crystal ball to "win" the prediction battle for the mainly newbie division.


Yeah I have always said I have better balls then anyone here Smile.

CT was a real challenge to do and this season was one if the tightest divisions so very pleased to have edged the other predictors out. That said I was quite a long way out with a number of teams - Euskatel in particular but also team TomTom.

What is always brilliant us having numerous previews to compare, including a pure stats one here.

I thought one of the brilliant things about CT this year is that we came out with some real manager gems, LLS proving one of them great work here.
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Margh Norway
Great sum up! Well done, LLS! Smile
(btw. it is Vontobel)
 
ggDonovan
Really nice recap! Well done LLS!
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knockout
Recently, I took a look at my own predictions and had a very good laugh. Thanks for reviewing all of them and showing me that I was not the onlustig one to fail Big times!

Hopefully I will find the time to do a prediction next year again!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters!
And To All Who Organize Something On Daily As Well!


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Ollfardh
In your face, critics! We even came close to a higher finish if only our season ending could've been better.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Stromeon
Nice work, an interesting read especially to see how my predictions turned out - it seems as if I'm either pretty accurate or horribly horribly wrong, with not much in between. I think what I might do next season, if I feel like doing it again, is use the maths as a base and then make a few adjustments according to what I think - for example I never really believed Siam would come plumb last. (easy to say in hindsight I know Pfft). But as you say, if the ManGame was just purely statistical then it wouldn't be what it is, so numbers are always going to be a little inaccurate.

Not sure whether Alpina finishing spot on in the average predictions is a good thing or a bad thing (also a little embarrassing to realise that out of the four previews I ranked myself the highest Pfft)
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Kentaurus
knockout wrote:
Hopefully I will find the time to do a prediction next year again!


I hope so the card presentations you had were fantastic.
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Jesleyh
Aww this hurts. TomTom fulfill any of the expectations.

Nice work there LLS Wink
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Scorchio
Nice work LLS, good to resurect the pre-season predictions. Happy we over-performed Smile. After the transfers completed and dust settled last year, Nutresa had strong confidence we would fulfill out top 5 CT goal, but will confess to being surprised to take the title - only about halfway through the season did this start to look a genuine option. Thought it had slipped away after some dissapointments in August, but October was awesome for us!

One of the real plus points from this years CT is how many of us are still active; don't envisage too many folding (obvious exceptions do exist!).
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG
 
DubbelDekker
Thanks for making this! Very interesting.
PCT version would be great.
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Luis Leon Sanchez
Well, firstly I would like to say thanks to everyone for the positive comments. I decided that there was enough interest to do one for the PCT, luckily it didn't take as long because I made my system more efficient. If some of my comments are a bit off don't take them to heart because there are no bad intentions. And of course I am very sorry if I missed your projection!


The Projectionists


I have used the exact same system which you PCT managers should be relatively familiar with.

ActualSmowzPointsjph27PointsFroomeDog99PointsFirefly21Points
1stQuickstepQuickstep0Bacardi4Bacardi4Bacardi4
2ndHeinekenVenchi2Quickstep1Quickstep1Meiji8
3rdOzBacardi2Venchi1Venchi1Venchi1
4thVenchiHeineken2Heineken2Heineken2Quickstep3
5thBacardiGazelle2Oz3Meiji5Heineken3
6thCSCJaguar2La Vie 3Metinvest5CSC0
7thGazellePuma6Meiji3Oz4Swedbank11
8thJaguarMeiji2Metinvest3CSC2Jaguar0
9thLa Vie Metinvest2CSC3Swedbank9Puma4
10thMeijiOz7Swedbank8La Vie 1Gazelle3
11thMetinvestCSC5RBC9RBC9Oz8
12thMagnaLa Vie 3Gazelle5Jaguar4Metinvest1
13thPumaMagna1Jaguar5Puma0La Vie4
14thFCBSwedbank4Allianz9Gazelle7Karcher7
15thAMEXFCB1Hornbach9Repsol1Magna3
16thRepsolKazzinc1Privatbank6AMEX1RBC4
17thKazzincAMEX2Puma4Hornbach7Allianz6
18thSwedbankKarcher3FCB4Allianz5Hornbach6
19thKappaRBC1AMEX4Karcher2Repsol3
20thRBCAllianz3Kenya5Kazzinc3Kazzinc3
21stKarcherHornbach3Karcher0Kappa2AMEX6
22ndPrivatbankMobil6Kazzinc5Magna10Kenya3
23rdAllianzKappa4Kappa4Kenya2FCB9
24thHornbachRepsol8Magna12Privatbank2Kappa5
25thKenyaPrivatbank3Mobil3FCB11Privatbank3
26thBulgariaCompal4Repsol10Mobil2Mobil2
27thAfricaKenya2Africa0Compal3Africa0
28thMobilBulgaria2Bulgaria2Africa1Compal2
29thBelarusAfrica2Compal1Bulgaria3Bulgaria3
30thCompalBelarus1Belarus1Belarus1Belarus1



The Points Table:

1stSmowz86
2ndFroomeDog99110
3rdFirefly21116
4thjph27129


Well again it is Smowz who is the best at projections. Clearly his experience in the Man-Game is telling here as he takes this one comfortably ahead of the PCT managers. He only guessed one correctly which was the winner, Quickstep.

FroomDog narrowly taking out 2nd. He did however only manage to get Puma correct. Firefly who only just lost the battle for 2nd guessed CSC-Orbea, Jaguar and Africa correctly. The loser, jph, guessed Karcher and Africa correctly.

So this year in the PCT it was Smowz who is clearly the best when it comes to projections. Maybe next year we won't be as surprised if we all think like Smowz...


Team by Team Projection Review


Team NameSmowzjph27FroomeDog99Firefly21AVGActual FinishDifference
Quickstep1st2nd2nd4th2nd1st1
Heineken4th4th4th5th4th2nd2
Oz10th5th7th11th8th3rd5
Venchi2nd3rd3rd3rd3rd4th-1
Bacardi3rd1st1st1st1st5th-4
CSC-Orbea11th9th8th6th8th6th2
Gazelle5th12th14th10th10th7th3
Jaguar6th13th12th8th10th8th2
La Vie Claire12th6th10th13th10th9th1
Meiji8th7th5th2nd5th10th-5
Metinvest9th8th6th12th9th11th-2
Magna13th24th22nd15th18th12th6
Puma7th17th13th9th11th13th-2
FCB-Polska15th19th25th23rd20th14th6
AMEX17th19th16th21st18th15th3
Repsol24th26th15th19th21st16th5
Kazzinc16th22nd20th20th19th17th2
Swedbank14th10th9th7th10th18th-8
Kappa23rd23rd21st24th23rd19th4
RBC19th11th11th16th14th20th-6
Karcher18th21st19th14th18th21st-3
Privatbank25th16th24th25th22nd22nd0
Allianz20th14th19th17th17th23rd-6
Hornbach21st15th17th18th18th24th-6
Kenya27th20th23rd22nd23rd25th-2
Bulgaria28th28th29th29th29th26th3
Africa29th27th28th27th28th27th1
Mobil22nd25th26th26th25th28th-3
Belarus30th30th30th30th30th29th1
Compal26th29th27th28th27th30th-3


At the head of the table Quickstep, who were predicted to finish 2nd, ended up taking the PCT crown thanks to some top class performances from Spanish Stage Racer Marquez. Heineken were expected to be up in the promotion places and did exactly that to finish in 2nd place after a consistently good season. Venchi in 4th were expected to promote and only just finished off the podium. Predicted 1st Bacardi ended up in 5th but certainly had the team to do slightly better with Uran and Intxausti performing well but probably not as great as they could have been.

The big surprise this year in the promotion places has to be Oz Cycling Project. Everyone's favourite manager Tsmoha got his reward for his reporting with Oz finishing on the final podium spot after being predicted to finish around 8th place.

Magna and FCB-Polska finished above expectations in the mid teen region after being predicted to finish around 20th.

There were more than a few PCT teams that finished well below the expectations of our projectionists. These include Swedbank who finished 18th after a 10th place prediction, RBC who finished 20th after being expected to finish 14th, and lastly the Allianz/Hornbach duo who were expected to finish 17th and 18th but ended up in 23rd and 24th.

At the foot of the table the bottom 5 were as expected. Bulgaria who were predicted to finish 2nd bottom managed to show signs of brightness but ultimately found themselves in the dreaded relegation places, whether they will be relegated or not is still to be seen. Africa were expected to finish down there and they did. Mobil got a projection of 22nd from Smowz and were expected to finish just outside the relegation zone but some hard luck sees them finish in 28th. Belarus were expected by all to take home the wooden spoon but they avoided it by 1 place to finish in 29th. The unfortunate Compal found themselves at the bottom after a long hard season, they were predicted to be bottom 5 but even they would have been surprised to find themselves at the bottom of the pile.

In all it seemed slightly easier to predict the PCT top and bottom but the middle proved to be difficult. The only real surprise team was Oz Cycling Project. Will it be as easy to make projections next year is the next question to be asked?


I hope you PCT managers and all others of course enjoy the PCT Review. Luckily there were still 4 members who made projections so there was still good variation between opinions of the respective members.

I am planning to do a PT one but want to make sure I include all the projections. So far I have found those made by Roturn, CountArach and jph27. If you know of more then please let me know asap.


Thanks
LLS
 
valverde321
Thanks for doing this, I was hoping to see how we did compared to how we were predicted! Interesting to see all the other teams too! Most predicted we would do better, and on paper we had a good team, but I think all the sprinters kind of cancelled each other out for the most part which was our downfall.
 
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