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17-11-2017 21:23
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Mafia IV
knockout
Just trying to sort my mind about which roles each of the two claimed detectives can have. I see no point in claiming detective for the town population so I'm only going to assume that trek can be CC or mafia while bbl can be detective, CC or mafia. mainly a couple of random thoughts that come up right now. Take of this what you want

Sceneario 1 :
Trek as CC
Bbl as Detective

While writing this i realize that this is impossible. BBL would not have received a mafia read on Trek in this scenario. So if trek is town and saying the truth then we will have to lynch bbl next and the other way round. One is lying!

Scenario 2:
Trek as CC
BBL as Mafia

As I realized in S1 we have to assume that bbl is mafia if trek is town anyway.

I can see this as a possibility. BBL would have picked trek as the one who looks the best opportunity to get one more townie lynched before him and I guess he picked me because he needed to make that claim to fit his role assumption because he agree to my proposed plan when trek accused me.

He propably knows that his reads will be unbelievable as soon as we lynched trek so I wouldn't read too much into his raziz and Waghlon reads (or we could start with the good old "he thinks that we think that he thinks ..." game)

Certainly a possibility. We'll know soon...

Scenario 3
Trek as Mafia
BBL as Detective

In this case we have trek and raziz as Mafia members so we only need to find the godfather. BBLs investigation should focus on double investigating the same citizen. The doctor should protect him a lot.

There is a CC still around or dead already. It would help bbl a lot if that one would share to role to confirm bbl his role (although lynching raziz would go a large way in that direction).

The mafia had a serious interest in lynching bbl so we should take a closer look at those who voted for him.

Scenario 4
Trek as mafia
BBL as CC

This is arguably the one scenario which would make things the worst for us as we would possibly fail lynching townie raziz and after realizing bbl was wrong we would possibly lynch bbl as a mafia member while not having much information.

In this case we can only hope that the detective is there to help us with real leads as we propably will lose if he's dead already.

The fact that he got two correct assignments in trek and me makes me consider this rather unrealistic though. However getting a third mafia read on someone like weirdskyfan would confirm this.

Scenario 5:
Trek as mafia
BBL as mafia

This one might be forgotten by some but we should at least consider this. Don't forget that the situation was two votes for trek and two votes for bbl when bbl claimed his role so he could be sure that one of them was going to get voted out. Don't forget that trek wasn't really trustable at this point.

I think making bbl claim and sacrifice trek to give bbl credibility would be the best possible play by the mafia in this situation. Raziz would be a townie for sure while Waghlon could be mafia (godfather?) or townie.

In this case we would have two more detective / CCs around so the chances that one of them is still alive is huge. It would be good to see whoever is d/cc claim his role (tomorrow) as well because as long as nobody else claims his role as a townie this scenario will look less likely (as it mostly assumes both detective / cc are dead already / inactive.



This whole write up makes me believe that scenario 2 or 3 are the most likely ones and we can exclude one of them after jandals lynch post. In case of scenario 2 i would be glad if the doctor would flip a coin between me and whoever he considers worthy as well to protect (making it a bit more unpredictable for the mafia) as I like to help with taking down the mafia (although I don't have a special role so you might as well pick someone else in the hope of him being the detective) while he should protect bbl in case of scenario 3


I'd like everybody to check for logical flaws as it is late already

A Big Thank You To All MG And ICL Reporters!
And To All Who Organize Something On Daily As Well!


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jandal7
Will wrap it up soon. Going by my record 4 hours should be fine until we go into the night. Keep voting as it's very close
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
17/05/17 - Paul23 said "Coquard will help Froome win the Tour"


[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [CT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing p/b Octagon
[CX] Listerijns & BoK

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Raziz
ryant wrote:
I'm inclined to believe BBL atm, mainly due to Raziz voting to lynch me for no reason, and hasn't took part in any discussions with the town.

In my opinion we lynch him tomorrow after trek


Funnily enough, the only reason I don't say too much is because I don't understand the rules completely and don't want to make a mistake by saying something I shouldn't.
 
jseadog1
Raziz wrote:
ryant wrote:
I'm inclined to believe BBL atm, mainly due to Raziz voting to lynch me for no reason, and hasn't took part in any discussions with the town.

In my opinion we lynch him tomorrow after trek


Funnily enough, the only reason I don't say too much is because I don't understand the rules completely and don't want to make a mistake by saying something I shouldn't.


haha to be honest I am in the same boat as you. I have a bit of information regarding bball but don't want to reveal.

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Raziz
jseadog1 wrote:
Raziz wrote:
ryant wrote:
I'm inclined to believe BBL atm, mainly due to Raziz voting to lynch me for no reason, and hasn't took part in any discussions with the town.

In my opinion we lynch him tomorrow after trek


Funnily enough, the only reason I don't say too much is because I don't understand the rules completely and don't want to make a mistake by saying something I shouldn't.


haha to be honest I am in the same boat as you. I have a bit of information regarding bball but don't want to reveal.


Baseball or basketball? Just kidding.

I'm just going with the flow
 
Luxemburger
Wouldn't Trek as detective and BBL as CC be an alternative as well?

As time is running out, I believe you that there is no alternative where both aren't mafia members, and vote to lynch TrekBMC
Kirchen's second account according to Spilak23, 21-07-2016 17:16
 
jandal7
Suddenly, a blast is heard from just outside of town. Everyone gathers around to see what it was. It appears trekbmc, with a bomb strapped to his chest, suicide bombed knockout. Neither survived.


Based on an order I was given earlier today. trek is on a flight but since this is a time he's usually on I went with it.

Half an hour left if anyone wants to change their votes or make one.
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
17/05/17 - Paul23 said "Coquard will help Froome win the Tour"


[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [CT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing p/b Octagon
[CX] Listerijns & BoK

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
 
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jandal7
Night 4:
A remarkable 3 more dead today as the town lynches baseballlover312.
Spoiler
Bad move boys, he was pro-town Wink


Dead:
Croatia14
MountainMaster
Selwink
baseballlover312
trekbmc
knockout

Alive:
Reveille
ryant
Marcovdw
Raziz
Luxemburger
Aquarius97
jseadog
weirdskyfan64
Waghlon[/quote][/quote]
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
17/05/17 - Paul23 said "Coquard will help Froome win the Tour"


[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [CT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing p/b Octagon
[CX] Listerijns & BoK

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
 
Aquarius97
I think that it's unfair that if the one who is going to be lynched, suicides himself, it's the second with the most votes the one who gets lynched

Now we are 6-2. We don't have a lot of margin now
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jandal7
Aquarius97 wrote:
I think that it's unfair that if the one who is going to be lynched, suicides himself, it's the second with the most votes the one who gets lynched

Now we are 6-2. We don't have a lot of margin now

Was uncharted territory but nothing is stopping it really and since it was that tight I rolled with it. If it was trek 5 bbl 1 i wouldn't have had bbl lynched
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
17/05/17 - Paul23 said "Coquard will help Froome win the Tour"


[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [CT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing p/b Octagon
[CX] Listerijns & BoK

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
 
Waghlon
Ah... fuck
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ryant
Raziz should be an easy lynch anyway, based on BBL's results
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Reveille
lynch raziz
 
weirdskyfan64
Right. I'll quickly explain why I lynched the way I did.
At first, BBL had sold it to me with his pitch about how Trek had to be a member of the mafia.
But then I saw that knockout had changed his mind. Why did he do that? From being so convicted that BBL was the killer, he had suddenly swung behind him.
My only conclusion was BBL was using the mafia to save himself. He wasn't and I'm sorry.
Disclaimer- Most of my posts are me thinking aloud. And most of what I think is rubbish.
Winner of a FIFA Prediction Fair Play Award(a phrase becoming increasingly ironic)
"... Because he(me)has a sound tactical mind in general..." jandal7, at 9:30 am GMT on 12th May 2016
 
Luxemburger
Are we going to know what Treks and Knockouts roles were?
Kirchen's second account according to Spilak23, 21-07-2016 17:16
 
jandal7
Luxemburger wrote:
Are we going to know what Treks and Knockouts roles were?

At the end of the game all is revealed Wink

12 hours for night roles.
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
17/05/17 - Paul23 said "Coquard will help Froome win the Tour"


[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [CT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing p/b Octagon
[CX] Listerijns & BoK

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
 
Waghlon
Well, I also kinda wanna explain why I voted for BBL: With trek, we sorta had an idea about what he was. It was a wrong idea, but it was an idea at least. BBL, at the time, didn't have anything I would consider proof for his claims.
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Aquarius97
Luxemburger wrote:
Are we going to know what Treks and Knockouts roles were?


Isn't obvious that trek was the terrorist?
GRACIAS ALBERTO

PCM17 Story:i.imgur.com/WcUbe3d.pngCEPSA - ESTRELLA GALICIAi.imgur.com/WcUbe3d.png

Manager of [MG] Repsol - Honda

Manager of [ICL] Wilier Triestina

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jandal7
1 hour left for night roles
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
17/05/17 - Paul23 said "Coquard will help Froome win the Tour"


[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [CT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing p/b Octagon
[CX] Listerijns & BoK

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
 
jandal7
Day 4:
Today the victim of the mafia was Luxemburger.

Dead:
Croatia14
MountainMaster
Selwink
baseballlover312
trekbmc
knockout
Luxemburger

Alive:
Reveille
ryant
Marcovdw
Raziz
Aquarius97
jseadog
weirdskyfan64
Waghlon[/quote][/quote][/quote]
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
17/05/17 - Paul23 said "Coquard will help Froome win the Tour"


[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [CT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing p/b Octagon
[CX] Listerijns & BoK

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
 
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